Estimating the Function of Tourism Demand in Iran
Subject Areas :
Soheila
Khoshnevis Yazdi
1
(عضو هیئت دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی- واحد تهران جنوب)
Maryam
Gomami
2
(کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی)
Keywords: Iran, ARDL, Tourism demand, Tourism, Income, Price,
Abstract :
Iran has a great potential in the fields of environmental, historical, and cultural heritage. Relying on these capabilities can be expanded with its own tourism industry. Tourism development for developing countries with problems such as high unemployment rates, foreign exchange and economic monoculture is encountering resource constraints. The heavy reliance on revenues from crude oil exports is of great importance in the economy of our country. Therefore, reliable forecasting and analysis of effective planning in industries related to tourism marketing is an absolute necessity. The main objective of this study is to estimate the demand of foreigners to tourism in Iran and to measure the impact of global GDP, the official exchange rate, consumer price index and oil prices on the demand for tourism in Iran. In this study, the method of ARDL model with the help of Tmymbafth Dykyfvlr unit root test and cumulative test Johansson was applied. Based on the evidence available, all the variables discussed in this study are meaningful and consistent with the theory. The review concluded that the price elasticity of demand in the consumer price index variables in long-term oil prices are stretching and official exchange rates and global GDP variables are inelastic. Cholera review found that the income elasticity of tourism products is essential.
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