-
Open Access Article
1 - Corporate Foresight Capabilities and Its Effect on Innovation, Strategic Decision Making and Organizational Performance (Case Study: Iranian Banking System)
Mahdi Joneidi Jafari Farhad Darvishi Safar FazliObjective: This paper aims to examine the ability of corporate foresight in the organizations and its impacts on innovation, quality of managers’ strategic decision-making and organizational performance in the banking industry of Iran.Background: In the first part MoreObjective: This paper aims to examine the ability of corporate foresight in the organizations and its impacts on innovation, quality of managers’ strategic decision-making and organizational performance in the banking industry of Iran.Background: In the first part, upon introducing corporate foresight from the two process and content perspectives, influential elements in this construct are discussed. Then, corporate foresight’s relationship with innovation and strategic decision-making is examined and its effect on organizational performance is analyzed within a structural model. Methods: Using interview and questionnaire, the data research were collected from the banking industry of Iran including 30 banks (State-Commercial banks, Specialist- State banks, Interest-Free Loan Funds and Private Banks). Through descriptive, inferential statistical analyses and structural equation modeling using SPSS and Smart PLS software, reliability of the measurement model with 93 samples was confirmed. Findings: The results show that the corporate foresight playing three roles of initiator, strategist, and opponent affects the innovation. Moreover, the research results suggest that using the data from the foresight and identifying the weak signals, we can reduce the uncertainty and issue prior warnings in order to enhance the quality of manager’s strategic decision making and promote the organizational performance. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - An Analysis of the Impact of Corporate Foresight on Innovation in Startups
Vahid Makizadeh Fatemeh SharaeiThe purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of corporate foresight on innovation in start-ups businesses. This research is applied in terms of purpose and it is descriptive-survey in terms of method. The statistical population is senior executives of startups. A MoreThe purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of corporate foresight on innovation in start-ups businesses. This research is applied in terms of purpose and it is descriptive-survey in terms of method. The statistical population is senior executives of startups. A researcher-made questionnaire based on theoretical literature was used for data collection. Hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling approach and Smart PLS software. The results of this study indicate that corporate foresight has a positive impact on innovation. The positive impact of corporate foresight on organizational learning and technology roadmapping was also confirmed. The analysis of the impact of mediating variables also showed that corporate foresight impacts innovation through organizational learning and technology roadmapping. Finally, the moderating impact of organizational support in relation among technology roadmapping and organizational innovation, and the moderating impact of integrative capabilities in relation between corporate foresight and organizational learning were also confirmed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Forecasting of the Students’ Performance in Military Higher Education Using Artificial Neural Network Prediction Algorithm (Case study: A military organization)
Mohammad Fallah Hamideh ReshadatjooBackground: One of the basic issues in a country's higher education system is the foundations of the quality of graduates’ and university students’ performance, which make up two of the seven major issues in the field of quality in higher education and is im MoreBackground: One of the basic issues in a country's higher education system is the foundations of the quality of graduates’ and university students’ performance, which make up two of the seven major issues in the field of quality in higher education and is important in incorporating multiple components in improving the quality of the higher education system of each country, and any ambiguity in it, especially in military higher education, which has a higher sensitivity, will lead to irreparable consequences. Purpose: The main objective of this paper is to forecast the performance of military higher education students using the artificial neural network prediction algorithm. In addition, the main components of student performance quality have been studied. Method: In this paper, using predictive artificial neural network prediction algorithm, forecasting the quality of students' performance in three phases of learning, validation and neural network test was performed. The statistical society consists of faculty members of Shahid Sattari Air University, students and graduates of this university, as well as the members of the Office of Strategic Studies and Theoretical Research, were then interviewed using a semi-structured interview and a researcher-made questionnaire. Finally, MATLAB software was used to model the neural network. Results: Using artificial neural network algorithm, a model with accuracy of 85.5% was designed and tested. Conclusion: By using artificial neural network algorithm and modeling the quality of students' performance, we can accurately predict the quality of the graduates' performance in the Air Force organization. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Future Study of Investment in the Housing Industry in Iran Using Scenario Planning Approach and Cross-Impact Matrix
Mohammad Reza Fathi Mohammad Hasan Maleki Vahid Rezvani AslHousing sector is one of the pioneer sectors of every economy that attention to that moreover deep social and cultural influences and making jobs in building sector and dependent sectors, by means of  MoreHousing sector is one of the pioneer sectors of every economy that attention to that moreover deep social and cultural influences and making jobs in building sector and dependent sectors, by means of influence on consuming expenditures and investment, effects strongly on gross domestic product changes and economical fluctuations. Also in recent years, this industry always has faced with splendor and stagnancy. so in this research, housing industry with regard to importance and it`s role in economical development and public welfare, with financial view investigated as Futures study. As identifying effective key factors on investment and future profitability of housing industry are important, this research with using ultra disciplinary of futures study intends to apply recognitional instruments and scenario writing, presents a clear view of future of Iran housing industry to programmers and investors. because of this research is done with general and comprehensive view related to research variables, results of this research can be generalized to housing industry of country. in this research with studying subject literature and interview with experts of housing industry, effective factors on research variables are identified and next, with using cross impact analysis approach, data entered to Mic-mac software and 4 effective key factors on future of investment and profitability are specified including economical sanctions, scale of government investment in housing sector, economical splendor and stagnancy, scale of access to infrastructural networks that are selected among 40 effective factors. in next phase, for writing scenarios, 4 effective key factors with specifying uncertainty states in questionnaire by experts, entered to Scenariowizard software and the most consistent future forthcoming scenarios of housing industry specified . After identifying scenarios and consult experts, economical sanctions and scsle of government investment in housing sector selected for writing scenarios and with regards to their conditions, future of housing industry presented in the form of 4 scenarios. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Designing a Model for Compiling Information Technology Roadmap. (Case Study: Implementing of Dedicated and organizational Virtual Bank in Mobarakeh Steel Company)
Aliakbar Khormooji Amirreza Naghsh Akbar Etebarian Khorasgani Reza Ebrahimzadeh DastjerdiBackground: this research has been done in the field of technology roadmapping. The secondary area of this research is the field of information technology.Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify the key indicators of information technology in organization a MoreBackground: this research has been done in the field of technology roadmapping. The secondary area of this research is the field of information technology.Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify the key indicators of information technology in organization and then to formulate a generic method to create an information technology roadmap.Methods: The main methodology of this study was mixed-method exploration based on tool formulation. the final statistical sample consists of a panel of 30 experts in the related fields at Mobarakeh Steel Company. In the qualitative phase, the research started with interviews. then, In the quantitative phase, the Delphi method was used in the panel of experts and then the IPA was used.findings: In the qualitative phase, 98 primary indicators, either current or future, were extracted in 4 key components of IT field for virtual bank implementation. In the quantitative phase and after performing the Delphi Rounds, 50 information technology indicators, were finalized. After the importance-performance analysis, 9 gaps in 3components were identified. These gaps used in the formulation of the final IT roadmap.Conclusion: In order to implement technology projects in an organization, at first, the roadmap must be developed. since no specific methodology has been provided for the development of IT roadmap, so this research has introduced a unique, innovative, localized and operational methodology, (based on the main methods of foresight), to develop an IT roadmap, that can easily meet the needs of researchers and academicians in the field of IT roadmapping. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Developing a corporate foresight model (Case study: Export Management Companies)
sohail dadkhah rohollah bayat safar fazli einollah keshavarz aboalghasem ebrahimiObjective evidence in the field of corporate foresight research suggests that companies and organizations are still suffering from a lack of a framework for facing future economic conditions and ensuring that all relevant external changes are relevant and appropriate re MoreObjective evidence in the field of corporate foresight research suggests that companies and organizations are still suffering from a lack of a framework for facing future economic conditions and ensuring that all relevant external changes are relevant and appropriate responses are presented. This research aims to develop the capabilities of corporate foresight and the successful use of foresight activities in companies to enter the global markets to examine the capacities of the two areas of knowledge of corporate foresight and international marketing. The research method has two main parts. First, through the qualitative research method, theoretical foundations are analyzed and analyzed. In the second part, the modeling is based on the modeling of the interpretative structure, explained and analyzed. The statistical population of this research is futurists experts and managers of active export management companies. Sampling method is a targeted sampling method. The findings suggest that the proposed framework, utilizing the capacities of the two fields of corporate foresight and international marketing planning, can be combined with the integration of prospecting and strategic planning approaches and the issue of entry into international markets Analyzes future scenarios in this area and facilitates the formation of a strategy to ultimately improve the ability of companies to deal with discontinuous changes and reduce the uncertainty of companies, especially export management companies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Cultural intelligence futures research with a Scenario writing approach
iman khaki Naser Mirsepasi Mahbobeh Montazer Ataei Hamid Erfanian KhanzadehBackground: Today, with the increasing speed, complexity, and extent of environmental changes, we are witnessing a continuing decline in the accuracy of traditional forecasts in the organization. Since people interact with each other and different organizations in a com MoreBackground: Today, with the increasing speed, complexity, and extent of environmental changes, we are witnessing a continuing decline in the accuracy of traditional forecasts in the organization. Since people interact with each other and different organizations in a completely dynamic and culturally diverse environment, a deep understanding of possible futures can lead to greater productivity.Objective: This research has been compiled with the aim of studying the future of cultural intelligence with a scenario-building approach.Methods: The research method is qualitative research and is in accordance with the quasi-numerical or judgmental approach in the field of futures research methods. In addition to articles, the assessment tool was the compilation of questionnaires in two stages using the Delphi technique. In this Delphi panel study, 17 experts in the field of communication and organizational behavior were selected by researchers. For structural analysis, the matrix method of cross-sectional analysis coefficients using Mick Mac software has been used.Findings: The findings showed that cultural, environmental, educational, and media factors have the greatest impact on cultural intelligence, based on which four scenarios called cultural intelligence, the cradle of cultural empathy, cultural intelligence free of prejudice (free-thinking), cultural intelligence Underlying Cultural Shock and Cultural Intelligence is written unrealistic media representation feedback.Conclusion: Predicting the future of cultural intelligence can reduce communication barriers between different cultures and give people the power to manage culture. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - A Future Study on Impact of Convergent Technologies on Ideal Model of Iranian Administrative System
Hedayat Kargar Shouroki Sayed Habibollah Mirghafoori Habib Zare Ahmadabadi Ali Mohammad SoltaniBackground: The administrative system, as one of the key development infrastructures, is itself influenced by other subsystems, including the science and technology system; and one of the potentially influential streams on administrative system is "technological converg MoreBackground: The administrative system, as one of the key development infrastructures, is itself influenced by other subsystems, including the science and technology system; and one of the potentially influential streams on administrative system is "technological convergence" or "convergent technologies". Objective: The present study was designed with the aim of discovering the appropriate response to this fundamental question: "How will be the impact of converging technologies on the future of Iranian ideal administrative system?" Methods: In this qualitative and descriptive research, at first, for designing a model of Iranian ideal administrative system, 10 superiority legal documents were analyzed and codified by grounded theory approach. Subsequently, the views of Iranian experts in convergent technologies about the possible impacts of these technologies on administrative system were collected through interviews and analyzed using social network analysis technique and UCINET software. Findings: Main Dimensions of Iranian Ideal Administrative System were identified in elements such as inputs, infrastructures, resources, processes, outputs and feedback, while the impact of converging technologies on these six dimensions was confirmed with a density of 0.87. The highest value of internal (beeing affected) and external (affecting) Degree Centrality is related to "processes" and "robotics and artificial intelligence" respectively, also "human-machine interafaces" has the highest value of the betweennes centrality indicator. Conclusion: All six dimensions of Iranian ideal administrative system will be heavily affected by convergent technologies and it is necessary to establish suitable mechanisms (such as education, regulations, credits, etc.) to effectively deal with this future in different parts of the system. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Investigating the Impacts of Organizing Processes Changes on Strategic Foresight Implementation Framework in Sport Industry
Ali Hemmati Afif Mahdi Nikooye Mohammadmahdi Mozaffari einollah keshavarz turkImplementing organizing activities with foresightfulness decisions is critical for competitive success due to uncertainty in environment of sport organizations. So strategic foresight has been developed in order to create and achieve sustained competitive advantage. App MoreImplementing organizing activities with foresightfulness decisions is critical for competitive success due to uncertainty in environment of sport organizations. So strategic foresight has been developed in order to create and achieve sustained competitive advantage. Applying and implementing strategic foresight by middle managers is important because of their responsibilities and authorization in managing, controlling and organizing of the organizations. This article aim is to identify factors influence on dissipation of strategic foresight implementation based on changes in organizing processes. In other word, considering organizing processes role in implementation of strategic foresight, this research investigates the effects of organizing processes and its related associated routines on strategic foresight implementation. Therefore, factors that have influence on successful or unsuccessful implementation of strategic foresight in sport organizations, should be identified. The article aim is to identify influence of organizing processes and their associated routines (rhetoric of legitimation, Instrumental rationality, suppression of creative freedom, and the formulation of solutions in search of problems) on successful strategic foresight implementation with using partial least square (PLS) software. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Identifying and Analyzing Key Success Factors (KSF) in foresight Studies by using: Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM)
seyed abbas ebrahimi Mozaffar Naseri Taheri Hossein Damghanian Azimolah ZareeBackground:Foresight practically; relying on the interaction between a wide network of stakeholders and experts; is pursue shaping a favorable image of the future. The core element of this paper focuses on:What are the most prominent factors which play a fundamental rol MoreBackground:Foresight practically; relying on the interaction between a wide network of stakeholders and experts; is pursue shaping a favorable image of the future. The core element of this paper focuses on:What are the most prominent factors which play a fundamental role in foresight projects successful functioning. Objects: Identifying:(1)the critical elements in Successful foresight and,(2)prominent pitfalls and challenges in the foresight process. Methodology: The first step:Through investigating of library resources,(80)causes identified as effective factors in the foresight process. The second step: These factors in order to assess the face and content validity were presented to (10)experts in the field of foresight. The next:A questionnaire; with a fuzzy cognitive map approach; inclusive of (30)essential factors was designed and between(8) experts distributed. Ultimately:By using FCMAPPER and Excell Software Data analyzed. Findings:In terms of input index (Influence of other factors) three concepts;"using appropriate methodology and method of foresight", "realistic making decisions" and "implementing policies and actions"respectively are most influential factors. In terms of output index (effective of other factor) three concepts:"using appropriate methodology and method of foresight","the clarity of the rational principles and the logical reasons for performing foresight for those involved in foresight "and "most prominent futurists participate in the foresight project"sequentially are most effective factors. Conclusion:The most fundamental factor in more realistic making decisions and proposed policies and actions in consequence of implementing foresight project depends on the deepening and updating of knowledge of the country's future prospects in the field of familiarization with the latest methodology and modern methods of foresight. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - A futuristic look at the Permission Based Marketing model in the field of banking using the Delphi approach (Case study: Bank Mellat)
Elham Zarif chenarani mashhad esfandiar doshmanziari farzad asayeshThe purpose of this study is to design, explain and present a Permission Based Marketing model in the field of banking among the employees of Bank Mellat branches.In this research, the combined method strategy has been used to answer the research questions. In this rese MoreThe purpose of this study is to design, explain and present a Permission Based Marketing model in the field of banking among the employees of Bank Mellat branches.In this research, the combined method strategy has been used to answer the research questions. In this research, by means of Delphi method, the opinions of experts in this field have been collected and summarized. According to the purpose, the research is one of the applied and developmental researches and in terms of implementation method, it is a descriptive survey. First, the initial conceptual model extracted from the subject and background literature by the meta-integration method has been refined by organizational experts using the Delphi method. Data collection tool was an open questionnaire and purposive sampling method was judgmental. In the quantitative part, the Delphi process was performed in three rounds, and the criterion for stopping the rounds was reaching the Kendall agreement coefficient to an acceptable level.The findings show that Permission Based Marketing indicators in Bank Mellat can be grouped into six categories: advertising effectiveness, information technology, marketing capability, customer satisfaction, continuity of customer relationship and customer attitude, which are more important in terms of attitude Customer, advertising effectiveness, customer relationship continuity, customer satisfaction, information technology and marketing capabilities.The results showed that the bank's commitment to the customer is one of the main reasons for permission based marketing,Keywords: Foresight, Permission Based Marketing, Delphi Technique, Banking scope Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Designing an Impact foresight Model on the Development corporate entrepreneurship in Small and Medium companies of Iran
zeeya RashvandBackground: Considering the increasing and future developments is one of the most important factors in any organization. The accurate knowledge of the future promotes the development and development of the various parts of each organization, especially from the perspect MoreBackground: Considering the increasing and future developments is one of the most important factors in any organization. The accurate knowledge of the future promotes the development and development of the various parts of each organization, especially from the perspective of corporate entrepreneurship. Based on the expansion of competitive space and the growing growth of societies' expectations, rapid environmental transformations and threats, the use of scientific variables of foresight variables with a systematic and correct look to the future is nowadays the focus of attention of most managers and industries. . Purpose: The main purpose of the present research is to investigate the effect of futuristic component on the development of enterprise entrepreneurship in small and medium enterprises. Methods: The present research is applied in terms of the purpose and the method of descriptive-survey information gathering technique and the Structural Equation Modeling Method with Liezel software have been used for factor analysis. The statistical population of the study consisted of 460 members of the scientific community of experts and managers in this field, 210 of whom were selected using the Morgan table. Simple random sampling method. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect information. Findings: All foresight outputs and foresight processes affect the variables of organizational entrepreneurship. Conclusion: Forecasting index has the most impact on the investment variable in small and medium companies of Iran. Therefore, firms should pay particular attention to this issue Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Design of a fuzzy artificial intelligence system in the selection of health technology in the foresight process
SADEGH ABEDI fatemeh hamidi Mohammad Reza SanayiIn general, the importance of health technology in today's world can be underlined by the fact that this technology is the foundation of success in the development of medical services. One of the long-term goals set for the medical device industry in the country is to m MoreIn general, the importance of health technology in today's world can be underlined by the fact that this technology is the foundation of success in the development of medical services. One of the long-term goals set for the medical device industry in the country is to move towards self-sufficiency and reduce the need for imports. Requiring this goal requires careful and forward-looking assessment. One of the main processes in foresight is technology evaluation. In fact, when it comes to foresighting organizations, we first identify the future trends of technology and secondly measure the level of technology available. As long as the existing technology level is not measured, futures are practically meaningless. Therefore, one of the most important parts of technology foresight is the evaluation of existing technology in the field of health. Based on the D-method, the inputs are efficient R&D, technology development, engineering, manufacturing, and the level of competitiveness and overall performance of the team. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Identifying and prioritizing the components of strategic foresight capabilities, crisis management and human resource agility in the blood transfusion organization using Delphi method and AHP
Mostafa Aghahosseini Eshkavandi Hossein Rezaie Dolatabadi Sayed Akbar Nilipour TabatabaiToday, the term "strategic foresight" is widely used to describe the activities and processes that help decision-makers to guide the companies' future action plan. This study was undertaken to identify and prioritize the Components of strategic foresight capabilities, c MoreToday, the term "strategic foresight" is widely used to describe the activities and processes that help decision-makers to guide the companies' future action plan. This study was undertaken to identify and prioritize the Components of strategic foresight capabilities, crisis management and human resource agility in the blood transfusion organization using Delphi and AHP techniques during 1393.The study population consists of the managers, officials and experts in Isfahan Blood Transfusion Center and 3 accident-prone provinces with at least 10 years of experience which includes 160 people. The study utilized Delphi Technique to identify the components of strategic foresight capabilities, crisis management and human resource agility in Isfahan Blood Transfusion Center and AHP method to prioritize these components. Based on the obtained results from the Delphi method 5 components for strategic foresight capabilities, 5 components for HR Agility and 6 components for crisis management were identified that each of which has also the components which are prioritized and weighted using AHP method. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Investigating the feasibility of integrated management of government organizations with a foresight approach case study: Greater Tehran
seyed pouya mirmasoudi youset ali ziari hamidreza jodakiToday, cities, especially megacities, are facing various problems that the traditional urban management has lost its efficiency. To solve the problems, achieving sustainable urban development requires an integrated urban management. The multiplicity of management and in MoreToday, cities, especially megacities, are facing various problems that the traditional urban management has lost its efficiency. To solve the problems, achieving sustainable urban development requires an integrated urban management. The multiplicity of management and incoherence of the government organizations in charge of city affairs is one of the most important challenges of the management of the metropolis of Tehran. The aim of the present study is to investigate the feasibility of integrated management. The government organizations of Tehran metropolis, the approach is prospective, applied-developmental research, and its method is descriptive and analytical. Data collection is using library and field studies, and the statistical community consists of a group of urban managers and experts in urban studies in Tehran. The matrix based on statistical indicators with two rotations of data has 100% desirability and optimization, which indicates the high validity of the questionnaire and its answers, and what can be understood from the page coverage of the effective factors of the integrated management of government organizations in the metropolis of Tehran, the instability of the system Is. The results of the research show that the effective indicators of the integrated management of government organizations and the future performance of the city of Tehran are, respectively: the center of extra-organizational leadership, coordination and interaction between organizations, the participation of organizations and citizens, efficiency and effectiveness, and transparency and accountability. The governmental organizations of future-proofing in the metropolis of Tehran are: economic sustainability, environmental sustainability, respectively Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - Developing optimal scenarios of creative regeneration of gorgan city
kazem taghinejad saeed yazdani Ali Reza Sheikholeslami Abbas Malek HosseiniBackground and Objective: in order to address the problems and problems of city monuments, the urban knowledge is obliged to replace it in a creative and creative way to recreate it. Therefore, future futures studies have emerged as a new paradigm for long - term view o MoreBackground and Objective: in order to address the problems and problems of city monuments, the urban knowledge is obliged to replace it in a creative and creative way to recreate it. Therefore, future futures studies have emerged as a new paradigm for long - term view on issues facing cities, with the aim of responding to unpredictable problems, futures futures and desirable futures in recent decades. In this regard, the present study attempts to formulate the optimal scenarios of creative regeneration of the city of gorgan city.Material and Methodology: in this study, first with the environment scan and Delphi method, 40 primary factors are extracted in four different social - cultural fields, management and planning, physical factors and economic factors, and then by using the Delphi method. In the next step, using structural analysis in MICMAC software has been attempted to analyze the matrix.Findings: Based on the results of the Wizard Scenario, Scenario Nos. (2, 3, 4, 6, 11, 12, 14, 15 and 16) are obtained as static or unbelievable scenarios. The historical context of Gorgan is imaginable.Discussion and Conclusion: Thus, in the short term (1404), the scenario of gradual decline in the quality of historical texture in Gorgan, with the short-term improvement of management factors and the decline of economic factors, is the most likely scenario, but in the long-term future, the cross-sectional improvement of management factors and policy inefficiencies may provide the opportunity to enhance economic factors. Do not allow this scenario to move to a disaster scenario. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - Foresight of education and research in the Iranian tax system - with an economic approach
Einollah Zamani Eskandari Mohammadreza Mehrabanpour Azita JahanshadThe purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate the strategic and future drivers of education and research in the country's tax system with an economic approach. This research has been done with the approach of futures studies with Delphi-fuzzy method and analysis MoreThe purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate the strategic and future drivers of education and research in the country's tax system with an economic approach. This research has been done with the approach of futures studies with Delphi-fuzzy method and analysis of matrix of interactions based on interviews with tax experts. Research method used from methodological perspective, survey research (field research); From the point of view of nature, it is descriptive-analytical and from the methodological point of view, it is based on the mixed method (a combination of quantitative and qualitative). After identifying the first 21 drivers in the stages of questioning, interviewing and fuzzy Delphi questionnaire, in order to finalize and evaluate the effective and future-making drives, all the identified drives are analyzed based on the fuzzy triangular mean and for analysis. Interactions between propellants Mick Mac software is used. Based on the results of the study, 7 propellants in the fuzzy Delphi stage were determined, which were again sent to experts to determine the analysis of cross-effects. The title of Strategic and Futuristic Propulsion was approved. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - تبیین عملکرد شهرهای جدید در افق 1410 ( مطالعه موردی: شهرهای جدید منطقه کلانشهر تهران)
جبار شرافت پور رحیم سرور بختیار عزت پناه -
Open Access Article
19 - آینده نگاری تحولات اسکان غیررسمی در پهنه ی جنوبی حریم کلانشهر تهران
عصمت خان محمدی رحیم سرور علیرضا استعلاجی -
Open Access Article
20 - تبیین مدیریت یکپارچه شهری درامنیت ورفاه محلات شهری (مطالعه موردی:شهرتبریز)
رضا سعادتپور علویق بشیر بیگ بابایی کریم حسین زاده دلیر -
Open Access Article
21 - The Theory of Sustainable Cultural, Social and Economic Development of Iran's Professional Clubs
Zahra Sohrabi Mehrdad Moharamzade Abas Nghizadeh Baghi Nasrin Azizian KohanPurpose: The current research tries to focus on social constructionism, link it with futurism, and in this process, using the constructivist approach of grounded theory, and present a short-range theory in the construction of possible futures of professional sports. The MorePurpose: The current research tries to focus on social constructionism, link it with futurism, and in this process, using the constructivist approach of grounded theory, and present a short-range theory in the construction of possible futures of professional sports. The growth of professional sports is the beginning of the development of the sports industry.Methodology: The data of this qualitative research, which had an exploratory-fundamental nature, was collected through targeted sampling with the snowball technique and based on in-depth semi-structured interviews with 20 experts in the field of professional sports. A detailed interpretive understanding and primary, focused, central and theoretical coding determined that professional sports based on the requirements of shaping the future, by overcoming the weight of the past, the pressure of the present and in line with the tension of the future and the choice of proactive behavior in facing the future, can achieve its desired future. Make and set a perspective for it.Results: In this research, macro analysis of future trends, income generation from social media, new formulas for selling players, the existence of many talents in all disciplines in Iran, sustainable talent search by clubs, development of academies and provision of legal measures for broadcasting rights.Conclusion: In a general conclusion, it can be acknowledged that by identifying the surprises and drivers affecting the future of professional sports in Iran, it is possible to identify its various futures with different possibilities. Surprises sometimes bring transformative events such as the invention of a new technology. Sometimes it is possible to be aware of a surprise that is about to happen by tracking weak signs, but this is not always possible. Therefore, it is suggested to privatize the clubs with the presence of the stock market and non-stock market, the implementation of the principles of corporate governance in the club, the establishment of an independent business institution in sports, the creation of income-generating places by the clubs, technology-based transformation in ticket sales, providing online services to fans (buying, The sale of club clothes), the passing of laws to protect the economic rights of sports clubs, the creation of professional television channels in the context of technology, in this way, entering into the discussion of sports tourism with high-profile sports by clubs should be placed on the agenda of the Union of Professional Clubs of Iran. In the field of professional sports, issues such as the status of professional sports rights, the status of professional clubs, the status of professional athletes and the status of professional coaches are addressed. Legally, the legitimacy of professional sports is not explicitly mentioned in any of the existing laws. For this reason, different people with different interpretations of existing laws have commented on the legitimacy or illegitimacy of this sport. The same is the case with the financing of professional sports. Media rights are the most important source of income for professional clubs. The Broadcasting Organization does not consider itself obligated to pay this right in any way. There is no specific and codified law regarding other financial sources. Playing professional sports is to earn money. Therefore, in this type of sport, relationships are more commercial. Business rules and regulations do not apply in some cases in the field of professional sports. Due to this legal gap, special laws should be prepared regarding the legal relations between institutions and individuals in professional sports. One of the reasons for the weakness of professional sports is the lack of a support system for institutions, athletes and coaches. For the development of professional sports, it is necessary for those involved in this type of sports to have sufficient legal and financial support. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - Compilation of the sports model of citizenship in big cities of Iran: Social development approach
Ahmadreza Kiiani Seyad Ehsan Amirhosseini Mehrzad HameidiObjective: The purpose of this research was to compare and design the development model of citizenship sports in Iran's big cities with an interpretive structural modeling approach. The development of citizenship sports will greatly help to improve the quality of people MoreObjective: The purpose of this research was to compare and design the development model of citizenship sports in Iran's big cities with an interpretive structural modeling approach. The development of citizenship sports will greatly help to improve the quality of people's lives, the development of social relations, people's vitality and people's health. One of the ways to develop citizenship sports is to identify the effective factors and try to provide the basis for the realization of the factors to help increase people's participation in recreational and public sports. The results of the present research showed that there are 16 factors affecting the development of citizen sports in the big cities of Iran. If proper planning is done and deliberate decisions and actions are taken in order to realize these factors, citizen sports will be on the path of development. The authorities' attention and focus on the factors influencing the development of people's participation in physical activities and recreational sports and citizenship will lead to the increase of people's participation in public sports in big cities. But due to the limited abilities and capacities, it seems difficult to focus on all factors at the same time. It is obvious that the effect of the factors is not the same compared to each other. Some factors are highly effective and some are less effective. Factors that are more effective should be prioritized. The stratification of factors using interpretative structural modeling method allows managers to focus on factors that have more guidance and influence and are effective on the creation of other factors for the development of citizenship sports or play a facilitating role. they do. Therefore, leveling and setting priorities in decision-making and action will make the efforts to develop Iran's citizenship sports more quickly. Hence, in order to determine action and decision priorities, 16 identified factors were leveled using interpretive structural modeling technique.Methodology: descriptive and practical in terms of purpose. Data collection was done in the field and in a mixed qualitative and quantitative way. The statistical population consisted of 18 experts in the qualitative section and 70 experts in the quantitative section, including the managers and experts of the Office of Public Sports of the Ministry of Sports and Youth, the officials of the Federation and Board of Public Sports and physical education managers of the municipalities in the big cities of Iran. The data was collected by reviewing documents and experts' opinions and using the Delphi method, a researcher-made questionnaire containing 16 factors for the development of citizenship sports. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by 10 sports management professors of the university and its staff with Cronbach's alpha test (α = 0.86). In order to structure the factors and design the model, experts' opinions, frequency percentage and interpretive structural modeling technique were used.Results :The results showed that 16 effective factors identified on the development of citizenship sports were placed in 7 levels. The factors of perspective and macro management and comprehensive planning and management were placed at the basic level of the model.Conclusion: In general, it is suggested that attention to citizenship sports should be included in the macro-directions of the government and the authorities should take the necessary measures to design and implement a comprehensive program for the development of citizenship sports. The institutionalization of recreational sports and the continuous development of citizen sports can be considered as an indicator to improve the level of social well-being. In fact, citizen sports have many social benefits, such as psychological benefits, such as enjoying leisure time and improving individual personality, as well as improving people's health and physical fitness, and finally improving the quality of life. The interpretive structural model provides a new insight and understanding of the relationships between factors and variables and shows a clear structure of a complex issue. In fact, by structuring and leveling the variables in interpretive structural modeling, action priorities for managers are determined and solves the concerns of managers in implementing priorities. In this research, by identifying the effective factors on the development of social participation in citizenship sports in the big cities of Iran, it made the managers more aware of the influencing factors and determined the structuring of the factors, the degree of influence and effectiveness of the factors. Based on the research results, comprehensive planning and management is placed at the lowest level of the interpretive structural model. Therefore, it is suggested that the physical training of the municipalities of the big cities take the necessary action regarding the design and implementation of the program and the accurate implementation of the executive calendar in line with the program of the Federation of Public Sports. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - The theory of social constructionism of Iraqi professional clubs
Aws Saad Hussein Rasool Nazari Naseer Qassem Khalaf Rezvan Mirsafaei RiziIntroductionConstructivism basically carries the term "make knowledge"; Constructivism is known by focusing on how the individual cognitively participates in the construction of knowledge from the perspective of social construction and acknowledges that knowledge and me MoreIntroductionConstructivism basically carries the term "make knowledge"; Constructivism is known by focusing on how the individual cognitively participates in the construction of knowledge from the perspective of social construction and acknowledges that knowledge and meaning are historically and culturally constructed through social processes and actions. Constructivist theory views knowledge as a construct. Purpose: The current research tries to link it with futurism by focusing on constructivism and in this process, by using the constructivist approach of grounded theory, to present a short-range theory in the construction of possible futures of professional sports. The growth of professional sports is the beginning of the development of the sports industry.MethodologyThis research is a type of qualitative research. In the present research, because we are looking for new concepts, from the point of view of nature, exploratory-fundamental; In terms of approach, inductive; From a paradigm perspective, the interpretive-constructive paradigm; From the perspective of strategy, the data theory of the foundation with a constructivist approach; From the point of view of data collection, field and library; From the point of view of the goal, explanation and modeling, and from the point of view of data collection tools, in-depth interviews and theoretical studies. Grounded theory or foundational data is one of the strategies of the qualitative method that emphasizes the induction or emergence of information from the data, in order to create a theory or model. In grounded theory, data forms the basis of our theory and our analysis of these data produces the concepts we want. Data allows us to learn from the stories of survivors and allows research participants to break the silence. But how researchers observe and present data depends on which version or approach they adopt from the grounded theory method (Charmaz, 2020). In this research, after studying and examining the mentioned challenge, in order to provide a systematic and schematic model of the findings from the coded data, it was tried to use the constructivist approach in the foundational data theory presented by Charmez. , to be used. This plan refers to the view of Charms (2020), which is a kind of philosophical position, between the almost positivist (quantitative) issue of Glaser and Strauss and the issue of postmodern researchers who question the importance of dominant research methods. Constructivist grounded theory leads researchers to focus on what is happening in the research context, reiterates that researchers are part of it, be flexible and follow empirical events.The data of this qualitative research, which had an exploratory-fundamental nature, was collected through targeted sampling with the snowball technique and based on in-depth semi-structured interviews with 20 experts in the field of professional sports in Iraq. A detailed interpretive understanding and primary, focused, central and theoretical coding determined that professional sports based on the requirements of shaping the future, by overcoming the weight of the past, the pressure of the present and in line with the tension of the future and the choice of proactive behavior in facing the future, can achieve its desired future. Make and set a perspective for it.Results: In this research, macro analysis of future trends, generating income from social media, new formulas for selling players, the existence of many talents in all disciplines in Iraq, sustainable talent search by clubs, development of academies and provision of legal measures for broadcasting rights.ConclusionIn this research, the surprising factors affecting Iraqi professional sports were also identified. The most important surprises affecting professional sports in Iraq include: privatization of public media, privatization of clubs, amendment of laws and copyright law, meritocracy, non-interference of politicians, change of attitude of managers, exclusive networks, sale of players, sale of products and marketing. Among the influential drivers are the drivers of professional sports budget providers, which are considered as one of the basic drivers of professional sports. Currently, the biggest drivers of professional sports goals in Iraq are the government and industries, and part of the armed forces and part of the sector. Private and those who fund professional sports form because this field is the biggest source that helps us to implement any program, especially the strategic plan with it is the issue of budget. Increasing the budget of Iraqi sports is one of the main drivers of professional sports in Iraq. Because the more economical the view of sports, especially professional sports, these sports will definitely win medals and bring Iraq to sustainable income generation and development in professional sports. Another driver identified is the presence of sponsors, which are the biggest drivers of Iraq's professional sports in the form of government sponsors and sometimes private sponsors. According to the findings of the research, one of the drivers identified in professional sports is having strategic and long-term plans in various fields of professional sports. Hence, the programs that are based on winning medals and titles in world arenas and Olympics, etc. Among other drivers in professional sports, we can mention the employment of competent people in management positions. Another driver of professional sports is talent search. If the talent search is done correctly in sports fields and these talents are increased based on a written program and a predetermined scientific plan, it can be effective in the world fields and the Olympics.Therefore, in order to make the state sports smaller and smaller, it is suggested that an independent institution of trade in sports be formed, consisting of the trustees of real private clubs, with the aim of making decisions for economic discussions and providing superior income generation models. The primary goal of this independent institution should be to attract the trustees of state clubs and go towards privatization. In a general conclusion, it can be acknowledged that by identifying the surprises and drivers affecting the future of professional sports in Iraq, it is possible to identify its various futures with different possibilities. Surprises sometimes bring transformative events such as the invention of a new technology. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - شناسایی متغیرهای موثر بر توسعه اقتصادی- اجتماعی آینده شهرستانهای ایران با رویکرد برنامه ریزی سناریو مبنا (نمونه موردی: شهرستان خرمآباد)
محمد اجزا شکوهی کیان شاکرمی -
Open Access Article
25 - غوررسی بر گونه های غالب تتبعات و تحولات پنداره های شهر هوشمند با توجه به پدیدۀ کریپتو و متاورس در راستای آینده نگاری بهینۀ شهرهای کشور ایران
مهیار سجادیان -
Open Access Article
26 - شناسایی عوامل تاثیرگذار و پیشران های کلیدی در توسعه منطقه ای با رویکرد آینده نگاری(موردپژوهی: ایلام)
سجاد دارابی زهره فنی -
Open Access Article
27 - Propose a conceptual model of foresight for the development of corporate entrepreneurship in small and medium enterprises
Zia Rashvand Eynollah Keshavarz Turk Akbar Alam Tabriz Sadegh AbediUndoubtedly, organizations in the business environment are facing increasing changes and complexities today. As a result, to ensure the survival of their organization. They need futuristic foresight to deal with problems and uncertainties of the future environment for p MoreUndoubtedly, organizations in the business environment are facing increasing changes and complexities today. As a result, to ensure the survival of their organization. They need futuristic foresight to deal with problems and uncertainties of the future environment for product development, innovation, and creativity, indeed foresight for the development of corporate entrepreneurship. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to provide a conceptual model of foresight for the development of corporate entrepreneurship in small and medium enterprises in Iran. This study, in terms of purpose, is considered an applied research and it is qualitative research in terms of the data collection method. The method of study is Meta-synthesis. To do so, 313 papers published between 1990 and 2020 in the best scientific journals are collected. Then papers were manually screened. 35 articles remained which were used for coding and analysis. Then codes were combined and the concepts obtained. The reliability of the concepts was assessed using Gohan's kappa index. Content analysis was also performed with Shannon entropy and the concepts were ranked. In this research, 26 indices were identified and classified. Based on these factors, a comprehensive model in small and medium enterprises in Iran has been presented and validated. The proposed model can address the challenges of small and medium enterprises and create appropriate contexts for the development of entrepreneurial programs and policies by managers, increasing the awareness of relevant industries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
28 - Analysis of Entrepreneurship Foresight in Iran
Marziyh Bakhtiyari Seyed Rasoul Hoseini Omid DargahinejadEntrepreneurship foresight is a cognitive and rational orientation towards the future of business; A kind of practical reasoning and control of the future, which helps communities and organizations to achieve long-term goals for economic growth and development. In this MoreEntrepreneurship foresight is a cognitive and rational orientation towards the future of business; A kind of practical reasoning and control of the future, which helps communities and organizations to achieve long-term goals for economic growth and development. In this study, the situation of entrepreneurial foresight in Iran has been studied. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of data collection method. For this purpose, the variables affecting entrepreneurship and business futures were identified based on the report of Mackenzie Institute (2016) and a researcher-made questionnaire was designed. The validity and reliability of the study were confirmed and Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.886 and the correlation value was calculated to be 0.862 by the retest method, which is an acceptable value. The statistical population of the study was 142 top entrepreneurs and doctoral students in the field of entrepreneurship in selected cities (Tehran, Alborz and Qazvin). The sample size was determined by Cochran's formula 103 people. SPSS22 and PLS software have been used. Based on the research results, the research hypotheses have been confirmed and it has been determined that six factors (high degree of urbanization, growing consumer class, entrenched culture of entrepreneurship, geographical location of Iran, level High scientific education and diverse economics) have a positive effect on entrepreneurship prospects in Iran, respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
29 - Foresight of Entrepreneurial University using The integrated method of processing scenarios and cross-impact analysis 1404
Noor Mohammad Yaghoubi masoud dehghani Malihe OmidvarDue to the rapid changes and uncertainty resulting from the necessity of strategic planning and future studies to deal with possible changes in the future will be more and more evident. The theoretical framework of this research, normative paradigm and planning approach MoreDue to the rapid changes and uncertainty resulting from the necessity of strategic planning and future studies to deal with possible changes in the future will be more and more evident. The theoretical framework of this research, normative paradigm and planning approach is faithful to the upstream documents. The present study is the time horizon of the year 1404. Preliminary data research using semi-open interviews and academic experts in the field of entrepreneurship Delphi collection and analysis have been using the software MicMac. More used. The ideal scenario, 59 possible and probable future entrepreneurial university was defined by a matrix of 59 × 59 using the software scenario wizard, 5 scenarios the probability is very high, 19 scenario with the likelihood of average to high 291 scenarios with low probability and weak, were very strong in the article 5 scenarios and 19 moderate to high probability scenario is analyzed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
30 - Structural analysis of Urban flourishing with a futuristic approach (Case Study: Ahwaz Metropolis)
mohammadali firoozi Fereshteh shanbehpoorUrban prosperity is a concept related to balanced development and harmonized in the environment is committed to justice and embodies human activity as a kind of social construction. Nowadays a different view of the future has caused man not to seek the future, but to bu MoreUrban prosperity is a concept related to balanced development and harmonized in the environment is committed to justice and embodies human activity as a kind of social construction. Nowadays a different view of the future has caused man not to seek the future, but to build his desired future by using various tools. On the other hand, the challenge of new urban life, environmental and social problems lead to future research approach in urban planning and using various devices to build a favorable future. The present study uses the technique of cross-impact analysis, which is one of the common methods in futurism by using MicMac software, which it has analyzed the components of urban prosperity in Ahvaz metropolis. In the following using the Delphi method which 30 components in five areas such as (productivity, infrastructure, quality of life, equality and social participation, and environmental sustainability) extracted as indicators of urban prosperity. The results indicate that there are five categories in the scattering pages like (influencing factors, bilateral factors, regulatory factors, influential factors and independent factors) are identifiable. Finally among the 30 mentioned factors after examining the effectiveness of these factors on each other and on the future situation of the metropolis of Ahvaz by direct and indirect methods, 7 key factors in (literacy rate, slum families, air pollution, unemployment rate, cultural centers, life expectancy at birth and poverty rates) have been selected to play the crucial role in the future situation of urban prosperity in Ahvaz. The results show that none of the components of urban prosperity in Ahvaz can be defined by experts as a target factor. This issue indicates the multifaceted issue of prosperity of Ahvaz metropolis. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
31 - Identification of effective drivers in the future of ecological city (Case study: Dorcheh city)
Ebrahim Barati Hamin Saberi Ahmad khademAlhosseyni Mehri AzaniIn the current century, when the development of science and technology is accompanied by speed, complexity and uncertainties, traditional methods of planning face serious challenges. One of these challenges and weaknesses is the inability of traditional planning to iden MoreIn the current century, when the development of science and technology is accompanied by speed, complexity and uncertainties, traditional methods of planning face serious challenges. One of these challenges and weaknesses is the inability of traditional planning to identify key factors. It is ecologically effective in the future development of cities. In fact, the futurist approach to urban planning uses a variety of tools and techniques to build a better future. The present study has identified the key factors affecting the development of Dorcheh city with the technique of interaction analysis, which is one of the common methods of foresight, and using MIC MAC software, with emphasis on the ecological approach. For this purpose, using the Delphi method, among the proposed variables, 20 variables were identified in five groups (social dimensions, political dimensions, economic dimensions, environmental dimensions and physical dimensions) and then analyzed by Mick Mac software. And analyzed. The results indicate that the Dorcheh city system does not have ecological stability and in the scattering page of Mick Mac diagram, five categories of variables (effective, two-dimensional, affective, regulatory and independent) can be identified, finally according to the impact and variability of variables. On top of each other, four variables of environmental degradation, clean energy use, tourism development and agricultural land conservation were identified as the driving and key variables for the development of Dorcheh city with emphasis on ecological approach. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
32 - Forsight of Golestan province tourism industry: scenario and Suggested solutions
zahra aldaghi abdolhamid ebrahimi samereh shojaee hossein didehkhaniThe purpose of this research is to Forsight of tourism industry of Golestan province with a scenario approach. This research is in terms of its purpose, in terms of the method, a combination of documentary and scrolling methods and in terms of nature, based on new metho MoreThe purpose of this research is to Forsight of tourism industry of Golestan province with a scenario approach. This research is in terms of its purpose, in terms of the method, a combination of documentary and scrolling methods and in terms of nature, based on new methods of futuristic, analytical, and explorative science. The statistical population of this research includes all theoretical and experimental experts. The non-probabilistic sampling method is using two methods for judging and snowball sampling. The data gathering tool was a questionnaire and an interview with experts. The results of the first stage led to the identification of five factors And 24 variables related to the future of the tourism industry in Golestan province. And in the results of the second stage of the research (the interaction matrix) based on the output of the Mick Mac application were identified 8 effective factors. The eight factors were used in uncertainty questionnaire Based on the twofold "uncertainty" and "importance" Four scenarios were identified and selected from the combination of two axes: "Tourism entrepreneurship" and "Tourism acceptance culture". Finally, there are suggested solutions for each scenario. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
33 - Identifying scenarios affecting the future of public diplomacy under the influence of cyberspace metropolitans with a structural analysis
Davood Kiani keyhan barzegar mohammad mahdi afsharGiven the position and effectiveness of cyberspace metropolises in all areas of collective and even individual life and its effective role in the superiority of countries in defending the interests of their nation, this research seeks To examine and analyze the role of MoreGiven the position and effectiveness of cyberspace metropolises in all areas of collective and even individual life and its effective role in the superiority of countries in defending the interests of their nation, this research seeks To examine and analyze the role of this important and sensitive factor in the future of public diplomacy A list of cyberspace metropolises, affecting the future of public diplomacy, was designed using the futuristic methods of identifying, matrix of interaction effects..By analyzing the data obtained with the software, it was possible to identify strategic trends and effective actors, including the promotion of artificial intelligence, increasing connections, new business models, external threats, globalization, protection of intellectual capital, global trade, political stability, discourse change. The Library of Power, Strategic Communication, Increasing Virtual Networks, Economic Communication, Cultural and Social CommunicationWith the scenario writing technique and using the Wizard scenario software, the effects of each of the situations occurring or not occurring were identified.The results of this study indicate that seven factors are the main and effective actors in the future of public diplomacy, which were implemented in two categories of desirable scenarios, including three scenarios and undesirable, including one scenario. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
34 - تبیین عملکرد شهرهای جدید در افق 1410 ( مطالعه موردی: شهرهای جدید منطقه کلانشهر تهران)
جبار شرافت پور رحیم سرور بختیار عزت پناه -
Open Access Article
35 - آینده نگاری تحولات اسکان غیررسمی در پهنه ی جنوبی حریم کلانشهر تهران
عصمت خان محمدی رحیم سرور علیرضا استعلاجی -
Open Access Article
36 - تبیین مدیریت یکپارچه شهری درامنیت ورفاه محلات شهری (مطالعه موردی:شهرتبریز)
رضا سعادتپور علویق بشیر بیگ بابایی کریم حسین زاده دلیر -
Open Access Article
37 - Analysis of the Effects of Cities’ Physical Development on the Future of the Urban Environment (Case study: Parand New City)
Kamran Valipour Aliasghar Rezvani Saeid PiriNew cities have been built with the approach of attracting the population of large cities overflowing in their immediate vicinity, which will face environmental issues in the future, as the process of attracting population continues. Air and noise pollution caused by pe MoreNew cities have been built with the approach of attracting the population of large cities overflowing in their immediate vicinity, which will face environmental issues in the future, as the process of attracting population continues. Air and noise pollution caused by pendulum migration and physical development has led to the growth of environmental issues in the new city of Parand. Accordingly, this study examines the effects of the physical development of the new city of Parand on the future environment of the city. The type of research is applied and the method of the study is descriptive-analytical. The statistical population is specialists and experts and the sample size using multi-stage sampling method is 60 people. The required data has been collected through library method and field study (questionnaire). Inferential statistical methods such as regression coefficients, T-test and hierarchical analysis model have been used to analyze the data. Findings show that part of the environmental issues of Parand is affected by the urban complex of Tehran. Another part is due to the formation and development of Parand city itself، such as air pollution caused by industrial activities in the southern part of the city، pollution caused by urban and industrial wastewater and municipal waste production near Imam Khomeini International Airport close to Tehran-Saveh road and finally the prevailing winds in the region (west to east). Findings show that the growth rate of migration - physical development - urban growth rate has direct effects on increasing environmental issues in the new city of Parand in indicators such as noise and air pollution (being located in the Tehran-Saveh belt and increasing pendulum migration from the new city Parand to Tehran and Karaj) and environmental pollution due to the physical development of this city (pollution due to physical development and construction growth). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
38 - Identifying Key Factors Affecting Urban Prosperity with Futuristic Approach (Case Study: Tehran)
zeynab alamati alireza kaldi mehrdad navabakhshChallenges of modern urban life such as; Competition between cities and urban areas, urban sustainability, the need to seize opportunities and avoid threats in social and cultural developments, mass demographic change and environmental and social problems lead to a futu MoreChallenges of modern urban life such as; Competition between cities and urban areas, urban sustainability, the need to seize opportunities and avoid threats in social and cultural developments, mass demographic change and environmental and social problems lead to a futuristic approach to urban planning and the use of tools Variety has become desirable to build the future.The main purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the key factors affecting urban development with a futuristic approach. Using existing studies in the field of urban development, six indicators were selected and classified. The statistical population of the study is the city of Tehran and its statistical sample is 30 experts and specialists in urban and regional planning. By studying library resources, all the factors affecting the development of Tehran were studied and after preparing a list of these factors, in interviews with experts, research findings were completed and based on them, a questionnaire was developed and the survey process began with the help of software ( MicMac) and with the interaction analysis method, data analysis and research scenarios were presented. According to the results of 4 factors of integrated urban management, economic situation, poverty and good urban governance were recognized as the first influential factors of the system. According to the scores of direct and indirect influence of 51 factors, finally the first 12 factors affecting the future of metropolitan development were selected to determine the final uncertainties and were scored according to the importance and predictability and the drivers that cause the most uncertainty. In order to present the future scenarios of Tehran development, it was determined that the three variables of integrated urban management, economic situation and poverty were selected as the most influential and uncertainty variables. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
39 - Structural analysis of smart growth indicators to indentify key stimulator with a foresight approach (Sari city case study)
Saeed Ezoji Kia Bozorgmehr Ameneh haghzad Leila EbrahimiAbstractIntroduction Cities are more prone to human activity than any other place. A key function in smart growth of cities considering population growth and lack of infrastructure and land availability is to take care of physical expansion in order to respond to curren MoreAbstractIntroduction Cities are more prone to human activity than any other place. A key function in smart growth of cities considering population growth and lack of infrastructure and land availability is to take care of physical expansion in order to respond to current needs and predict future needs of cities. Methodology This article is descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology and practical in terms of targeting. In the preparation of smart growth indicators, theoretical data has been prepared with documentary method and experimental data with survey method based on Delphi technique. The statistical population of 20 academic and research experts and specialists in the urban area has been selected by purposeful sampling. In processing the data MICMAC software was employed for structural mutual effects analysis.Geographical area of researchThe geographical realm of the study was the city of Sari. Results and discussion Fifty initial stimulators were classified into five smart growth dimensions (economic, social-cultural, bodily-spatial, environmental and access) and analyzed by using MICMAC. Results showed a matrix filling of 96.88% which indicates the strong effect of the selected factors on one another and that the whole system is in unstable condition so that most of the stimulators lie within bi-dimensional stimulators.Conclusion Twelve key stimulators: Planning policies for increasing density, revising of urban plans and making them more flexible, expansion of local management units, appropriate distribution of equipment and amenities, persuading citizens and stakeholders to take part in planning and decision making, development of neighborhoods with various functions, creating dense neighboring units, equal distribution of financial sources and loads, integrated mapping of regions, emphasizing adjacency of compatible uses, fair distribution of services in neighborhoods and using abandoned urban lands and lots. These make seven bodily-spatial, two social-cultural, two access stimulators and one effective stimulator that affects the future status of Sari. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
40 - Designing a model for strategic foresight capabilities for human capital
reza assaly malikeh beheshtifar hosein KazemiAbstractBackground and purpose: Today, the organizations remain in the competition scene that strengthen the capabilities of strategic foresight in their human capital. This research was conducted with the aim of designing a model of strategic foresight capabilities for MoreAbstractBackground and purpose: Today, the organizations remain in the competition scene that strengthen the capabilities of strategic foresight in their human capital. This research was conducted with the aim of designing a model of strategic foresight capabilities for human capital in Minoo company.Research method: This research is fundamental-applied according to its purpose. The statistical population included experts familiar with the subject, and using the theoretical sampling method, 10 experts were selected until theoretical saturation. The method of data collection was library studies and the fuzzy Delphi method and interpretive structural modeling were used to validate the model.Findings: The findings showed that the model of strategic foresight capabilities for human capital of Minoo company has 5 dimensions and 25 components. These dimensions include rational capability, synergistic capability, strategic selection capability, environmental navigation capability, and adaptability capability. The findings also showed that the components of ability to respond to changes, the skill of developing a scenario, a positive attitude towards the external environment, self-awareness, environmental interpretation and control are the cornerstones of the model, and the design of the model should start from these variables and be extended to other variables. .Conclusion: The human capital in manufacturing companies, especially Minoo Company, due to their nature, should have a high level of strategic foresight capabilities in order to meet the company's long-term goals. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
41 - Critics of the epistemology of future studies, emphasizing on the rationality of the strategic foresight
Moslem Shirvani Naghani Mohammad Rahim EivaziRapid changing, the enhance of uncertainty and the complicated environmental conditions in the present century led to avoiding taken-for-granted linear change in planning and decision-making in various parameters and tending to use futures studies in different levels an MoreRapid changing, the enhance of uncertainty and the complicated environmental conditions in the present century led to avoiding taken-for-granted linear change in planning and decision-making in various parameters and tending to use futures studies in different levels and areas instead. However, studies related to the future were always faced the cognitive challenges. In this study, the theory of Wendell Bell in cognitive futures studies, as one of the most famous theories in the area, was critically investigated. Then, the rationality of strategic foresight as a pragmatic approach to the future studies was analyzed. IN other words, the rationality of proposition that extracted from the future study by strategic foresight approach was investigated. Besides recognizing the most influential weaknesses of his theory, the findings of the research revealed that “the problem-solving”, “accuracy in predicting”, “balance between issues”, “simplicity”, “expansion”, and “compatibility” along with “being value-oriented” are criteria which introduce strategic foresight as a rational and wise approach which can significantly help long-term studies related to the future. Hence, to develop and apply the strategic foresight, the suggestions are provided for the academic researchers, industrial, and administered authorities. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
42 - شناسایی پیشران های کلیدی موثر بر آینده نفت خام در افق 1414 با استفاده از روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع
هدایت امیری سیداکبر نیلی پور طباطبایی -
Open Access Article
43 - Environmental Scanning of Sections Quad Iran's Sports Based on Strategic Foresight and Analysis of Consequences by Future Wheel Method
reza Farokhshahinia Moslem Shirvani Naghani ali hemati afifThe general object of this study was the environmental scanning of Sections quad Iran's sports based on the STEEPELD model and analysis of key driving forces consequences by future wheel method. The present research is in terms of applied purpose, mixed in terms of natu MoreThe general object of this study was the environmental scanning of Sections quad Iran's sports based on the STEEPELD model and analysis of key driving forces consequences by future wheel method. The present research is in terms of applied purpose, mixed in terms of nature, and in terms of implementation path, survey and brainstorming. The statistical population were faculty members of sports management with associate degrees and higher who were selected by combined sampling. To adjust the environmental factors and analyze their impact, a 61-item questionnaire with convergent validity (0.622) and composite reliability coefficient (0.868) was used, which was analyzed using Friedman test, structural equation modeling (PLS) and panel of experts. According to the research results, economic transparency and control in educational sport, economic stability and security in sport for all, infrastructure development in championship sport and international restrictions such as sanctions in professional sport, had the highest impact factor whose consequences were investigated with 24 components in the first, 22 components in the second and 19 components in the third place. Therefore, analyzing the impact of the identified key driving forces of the research can provide a more suitable image of the future of Iranian sports on the horizon of 2025 to eliminate, adjust or develop the strategies of sports organizations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
44 - Investigating the Relationship of the Entrepreneurial University with the Dimensions and Components of Forecasting and Science Productio
kiuomarz nyazazari maryam taghvaei yazdi samad fadaei The aim of this study is to provide a Investigating the Relationship of the Entrepreneurial University with the Dimensions and Components of Investigation and the Production of Science.This study is a qualitative methodology. The research method was descriptive- More The aim of this study is to provide a Investigating the Relationship of the Entrepreneurial University with the Dimensions and Components of Investigation and the Production of Science.This study is a qualitative methodology. The research method was descriptive-Field Study measurement. The statistic sample was chosen from Islamic Azad university faculties (800 individuals). The research sample was chosen by Random Stratified sampling. The techniques used to collect the data were based on three questionnaires: (entrepreneurial, Futures study technique and since Questionnaires). By using data analysis through SPSS and Lisrel software showed, (descriptive and inferential, regression and factor analysis methods) The results showed that 6 dimensions creating entrepreneurial University in Iran’s Educational system Including Organizational acting, Attitude, Flexibility, Compensation, Entrepreneurial Leadership, entrepreneurial culture. There are 4 dimensions creating university based on Futures study technique in Iran’s Educational system including Model philosophy, Theatrical foundation, Administrative level, evaluated system. There is 7 dimensions creating since University in Iran’s Educational system Including Motivation, Structure, University supporting, University based on education, Knowledge Management System, Co working research, Limiting in Financing. entrepreneurial University effected on Futures study technique in the education system in Iran. Entrepreneurial University effected on since in the education system in Iran. Benefiting from confirmatory factor analysis using LISREL software, 97 questions (all three questionnaires), were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis. The final model of the study was confirmed with the indices of fit and the standardized coefficients. Manuscript profile
Sanad
Sanad is a platform for managing Azad University publications
Links
Related Centers
Technical Support
Official pages
The rights to this website are owned by the Raimag Press Management System.
Copyright © 2021-2024