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Open Access Article
1 - Dynamic Analysis of Marketing Mix through Future Studies Approach
Samira Bekr Hormoz Mehrani Masoud Qorban Hosseini sedighe TootianBackground: The essence of strategy is the comprehensiveness of thought and agility of choice. In today's world, where the most important components describing it are dynamism and uncertainty, observing the challenging factors, both inside and outside the organizations, MoreBackground: The essence of strategy is the comprehensiveness of thought and agility of choice. In today's world, where the most important components describing it are dynamism and uncertainty, observing the challenging factors, both inside and outside the organizations, not only makes it difficult to have a comprehensive look, but also makes the process of strategy development complex, and eliminates possible alternatives.Objective: The main purpose of this research is to enhance the learning of current behavior of the systems and to draw the future by scenario planning.Methodology: Future studies have been described as how to bring about the reality of tomorrow from the changes or stability of today. Scenario planning and simulation methods have been used to identify probable futures. This research has developed a model to determine the uncertain consequences of decision-making using dynamic methods, the expert’s judgment, and root causes, intermediate and main variables affecting the elements of new marketing mix in power plant services industry.Finding: The research model has been designed using system dynamics technique and Vensim software. The behavior of variables has been simulated using real figures of the industry and the interactions between variables and their effects on overall system have been evaluated and results extended to the future.Conclusion: The result of this research is the prioritization of the strategic elements of the marketing mix, providing model for evaluating their situation and proposing solutions for reviewing or strengthening marketing strategies in the industry mentioned taking into account the simulation results. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Designing a Mathematical Model for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Advertising Media on Consumer Behavior
S. Khanmohammadi M. MohammadiAdvertising is one of the critical factors for success of any organization, so that advertising plans isimplemented with regarding effective factors such as marketing mix, environmental factors and marketinggoals in consumer's buying decision making process. In This pap MoreAdvertising is one of the critical factors for success of any organization, so that advertising plans isimplemented with regarding effective factors such as marketing mix, environmental factors and marketinggoals in consumer's buying decision making process. In This paper a dynamic model for evaluating theeffectiveness of using advertising media is introduced. In this model the media planning is employed basedon internal and environmental parameters of organizations and their interactions, by using the expert’sconsults as linguistic fuzzy values. A multiple criteria decision making model is used to assign optimalbudget to advertising media. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Dynamic Organizational Planning Modeling with Fuzzy Data
S. Khanmohammadi R. Radfar J. JassbiStrategic planning models emphasizes on two major approaches: first, mathematical models andmulti criteria decision making are used for organizational strategy selection and second, geometricalanalysis are used for strategy selection. But these approaches are usually su MoreStrategic planning models emphasizes on two major approaches: first, mathematical models andmulti criteria decision making are used for organizational strategy selection and second, geometricalanalysis are used for strategy selection. But these approaches are usually suffering from the fourmajor drawbacks:1) The effect of time, as a basic variable, is not considered in strategic planning process;2) In classic mathematical models that are currently used in strategy selection process, it is notpossible to consider all of the effective parameters simultaneously;3) Mutual effects of components and subsystems are disregarded;4) The ignorance of lag effects between elements and relations.In this paper a dynamic system approach is used for modeling the planning process to overcomethese weaknesses. In this model, organizational planning has been done based on recognition ofinternal and external components and mutual effects to overcome the organizational problems.Dynamic planning model consider an integrated whole system is designed containing differentsubsystems. This model is used to select the best strategy between different possible solutions. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Designing a Mathematical Model for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Advertising Media on Consumer Behavior
S. Khanmohammadi M. MohammadiAdvertising is one of the critical factors for success of any organization, so that advertising plans is implemented with regarding effective factors such as marketing mix, environmental factors and marketing goals in consumer’s buying decision maki MoreAdvertising is one of the critical factors for success of any organization, so that advertising plans is implemented with regarding effective factors such as marketing mix, environmental factors and marketing goals in consumer’s buying decision making process. In this paper a dynamic model for evaluating the effectiveness of using advertising media is introduced. In this model the media planning is employed based on internal and environmental parameters of organizations and their interactions, by using the expert’s consults as linguistic fuzzy values. A multiple criteria decision making model is used to assign optimal budget to advertising media. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Presented a dynamic Model to simulate the Balanced Score Card with the goal of efficient Strategies (Case study: Mahan air)
دکتر عباس طلوعی اشلقی الناز بیگلریKaplan and Norton Introduced BSC instrument on organization field. Presumptionfor accessing the organization operation implied that not only limited to the traditionalfinancial criterion but also completed with the customer satisfaction factors, internalprocess and grow MoreKaplan and Norton Introduced BSC instrument on organization field. Presumptionfor accessing the organization operation implied that not only limited to the traditionalfinancial criterion but also completed with the customer satisfaction factors, internalprocess and growing abilities.BSC is a comprehensive tool for the operational assessment. Dynamic system isalso a tool for reviewing and analyzing the behavior of a system with case and effectrelationship. In order to understanding the digit index influenced factors , dynamicmodel is an efficient tool. Simulation based on BSC ability by the what if test candetermine the appropriate strategies and goals. This article described the executiveways with the BSC and dynamic system in order to the efficiency and dominant theweakness in Mahan air line. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - System Dynamic Modeling of Scenarios for the Protection of Groundwater Resources in Drought Conditions in South Khorasan Province, Iran
Mostafa Teimoori Sayed Mehdi Mirdamadi Sayed Jamal Farajolah Hosseini Samad Rahimi Sooreh Mohamad ALI Afshar kazemiBackground and Aim: The purpose of this research is to model scenarios for the protection of underground water resources in South Khorasan province in drought conditions. Methods: In this regard, this problem was followed using the system dynamics approach and the beha MoreBackground and Aim: The purpose of this research is to model scenarios for the protection of underground water resources in South Khorasan province in drought conditions. Methods: In this regard, this problem was followed using the system dynamics approach and the behavior of the reference variable "Volume of underground water resources of South Khorasan Province" was simulated against different scenarios during the years 2013 to 2014 through the use of Vensim software. The required information was collected by referring to relevant organizations such as South Khorasan Regional Water Organization, South Khorasan Agricultural Jihad Organization and Iran Statistics Center, and the input data of the model was called into the model in the form of an Excel file. Results: The results of the research showed that applying the control scenario of water resources exploitation in normal drought conditions and drought with low intensity is useful, but applying this scenario in drought conditions of more than 20% will have negative effects on the economic indicators of the agricultural sector. Also, the fourth scenario of the cultivation pattern (emphasis on strategic crops) along with the fifth scenario of the cultivation pattern (drought-resistant crops) have brought the least pressure on underground water resources. Nevertheless, considering that cultivation pattern No. 4 has created the least added value, it cannot be an efficient pattern. Conclusion: According to the results of the research, if the severity of droughts increases in the coming years, but the current agricultural conditions of South Khorasan province continue in terms of cropping patterns, droughts will not have an effect on economic indicators, because in these conditions, farmers By breaking the ground and extracting more from underground water sources, they will compensate for the lack of rainfall and will show the negative effects of drought on the stock of underground water resources. Considering the effect of the cultivation pattern on underground water resources and economic indicators, it is necessary to think of measures to change the cultivation pattern. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - The Dynamic Trajectory of L2 Development in the Speech of Early Iranian Learners of English Based on Processability Theory
Fatemeh Alizadeh Afsar Rouhi Hossein Sadegh Oghli -
Open Access Article
8 - A System Model for Technological Capabilities Assessment in High-Speed Train Industries
Robaheh Zolaikhaei Reza Radfar -
Open Access Article
9 - Investigating the feasibility of implementing scalable policies for optimal production capacity based on a reconfigurable production system with a dynamic systems approach
rohollah ranjbar seyed ahmad shayan nia amirmehdi miandaragh mohammadreza lotfi. In this research, a new model for evaluating capacity policies based on new product orders, financial inventory and budget based on dynamic systems is presented. The scope of research is the National Iranian Gas Company. The data obtained through exploratory interview More. In this research, a new model for evaluating capacity policies based on new product orders, financial inventory and budget based on dynamic systems is presented. The scope of research is the National Iranian Gas Company. The data obtained through exploratory interviews were selected from the experts of the National Iranian Gas Company. Their effects on each other were extracted and after expressing the dynamics hypothesis, a sample of the related cause-effect was prepared. After plotting the causal loops and in order to analyze the parameters involved in the model, the flow accumulation diagram was drawn. The designed model was implemented and the behavior of the variables was investigated and then the model was validated. The model includes four sections: orders, production, research and development of capacity building and the financial section. The results showed that the company adjusts its production capacity and inventory level by considering the order rate received from customers and considered the output of its product with the attitude of no stock output and as you saw in the model with this approach was able to Match production capacity and inventory level with market needs. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - presenting the financing model for small and medium industries and examining the problems and solutions
Sadegh Rezaei Monfared Seyed Javad Iranban Reza Radfar Ali HajihaAbstractFinancing has always been one of the main challenges of creating and developing start-up businesses and small economic industries. Therefore, the purpose of the current research is to identify and present a model for financing small and medium industries with th MoreAbstractFinancing has always been one of the main challenges of creating and developing start-up businesses and small economic industries. Therefore, the purpose of the current research is to identify and present a model for financing small and medium industries with the approach of evaluation laboratory and decision test based on the process of interpretive structural modeling and Fuzzy Dimetal. This article deals with the design of different scenarios in the financing of small and medium enterprises. For this reason, taking into account the previous studies and the fuzzy screening method, a dynamic model has been developed to extract effective factors on the financing of small and medium enterprises and to specify the cause-effect circles. Then, using structural modeling technique and Fuzzy Demetall, relationships and levels between them, the amount of influential and influential coefficients have been determined and included in the model, finally, in order to test the accuracy of the model and determine the behavior of state and rate variables, we collected Information from 30 small and medium-sized enterprises has been requested to know the new methods of financing in a period of 12 months, which was evaluated by analyzing the behavior of the variables in the framework of the model, as well as the sensitivity analysis, and the validity of the designed dynamic model. The results showed that small and medium enterprises can benefit from the designed model and scenarios for optimal financing of their business. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Fuzzy model of hesitance decision making in evaluating business plans under uncertainty: an approach to developing new products
Amir Bahramipour Sadeghi Abedi Alireza IrajpourAbstractVarious researches have been done on the development of new products based oninnovation. There is also a significant increase in studies in which there is aconcept of "systemic approach". However, according to previous researches,decision-making in hesitant atmo MoreAbstractVarious researches have been done on the development of new products based oninnovation. There is also a significant increase in studies in which there is aconcept of "systemic approach". However, according to previous researches,decision-making in hesitant atmosphere to select exogenous variables of businessdevelopment model based on new product development was not observed. Themain issue in this research is to investigate and find the factors affecting thefeasibility of new product development plans and finally to obtain a method forevaluating new product development plans in industry. In evaluating economicplans, the parameters are usually considered definite, but the study of uncertaintyis important considerably. The results show that 6 exogenous variables wereselected as key variables in the selection and development of a new product in theorganization. The weighted importance of variables is the share of new productacceptance in the market (0.275), new product development investmentconfidence (0.239), new product development strategy (0.209), level of passingstandards and requirements (0.136), attracting development research fundingProduct (0.077) and Applied Research Fundraising (0.061). The dynamic productdevelopment model is designed based on the cause-and-effect relationship and infuture studies needs to test the simulation performance of present and futuredecision making Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Dynamic Model of Human Capital Development
VAhid Hajilo Gholamreza Memarzadeh Tehran Mahmood AlborziThe potential of human capital can help the organization to achieve dynamism and transformation, achieving this goal is possible with the development of human capital in the organization. The axis of development is the education of the staff and its realization requires MoreThe potential of human capital can help the organization to achieve dynamism and transformation, achieving this goal is possible with the development of human capital in the organization. The axis of development is the education of the staff and its realization requires a change in the consciousness, attitude and behavior of human resources. Therefore, this research has been conducted to provide a model for the development of human capital in Iranian government agencies. The statistical population of the research is the governmental organizations of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the experts of the organization were selected as the statistical sample based on specific circumstances and were considered for answering questions and conducting necessary interviews. The boundary between the system and the relationships between them was determined by the experts and then attempted to simulate the dynamic systems model in the software environment. The results showed that among the 9 scenarios, the scenario "Improvement of Trust, Mutual Outside Organizations and Knowledge in the Organization" was a strong scenario and finally, the "Improvement of Staff Ability" scenario was identified as the most attractive scenario for this research. Government agencies for human capital development can work in line with improving staffing abilities. Because of the fact that there are two objective and objective facets, this factor can provide employees both psychologically and in terms of enhancing the experience, skills and knowledge required in the light of appropriate and timely training in relation to their duties. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Iranian Designing a System Dynamic Model for Corporate Cash Management
Mahmood Alborzi Keyvan Dadras Davood GharakhanyCash management is one of the main topics of corporate financial management. Liquidity is the company's ability to fulfill short-term obligations. Budget preparation is one of the most important short-term financial forecasting tools for cash management in companies. Ca MoreCash management is one of the main topics of corporate financial management. Liquidity is the company's ability to fulfill short-term obligations. Budget preparation is one of the most important short-term financial forecasting tools for cash management in companies. Cash budget plans input and output cash flows in a period. Using this method the courses the company is faced with surplus cash and the courses in which the company is faced with shortage of these funds and has to supply it are determined. In this study, it has been attempted to while analyzing the causative relationships among the components of incoming and outgoing cash flow, a system dynamic model is proposed for planning organizations’ cash funds. Using the proposed model the incoming and outgoing cash flows are predicted and by providing different scenarios to address liquidity shortages, the variable changes of the model and their effect on liquidity of the company are discussed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Explaining the Process of Physical Balance Monitoring in the Model of Balanced Renovation of Worn-Out Urban Textures Using the Dynamic System Method (A Case Study of the Central Worn-Out Texture of Zanjan)
ali osanlu alireza andalib shirin toghyaniToday, it is critical to apply the teachings and experiences of the past by using the models, especially a conceptual model making use of a local theory being compatible with the context of our country in order to improve the urban environment, such as renovating urban MoreToday, it is critical to apply the teachings and experiences of the past by using the models, especially a conceptual model making use of a local theory being compatible with the context of our country in order to improve the urban environment, such as renovating urban decay. Therefore, this research based its framework on a new process to achieve positive changes in rejuvenating decay areas. In this article, the "Balanced Renovation of Urban Decay" Theory was first explained and it was used in a case study (central urban decayed tissue of Zanjan). The results of the first step were used for "dynamic modeling of decayed networks". The research variables used for modeling included a large number of indicators, components and social elements of the urban decay, resulting from valid theoretical sources and field studies, questionnaires, as well as using the experts’ opinions through Delphi method. This is while they are finally reduced to important and effective indicators using factor analysis method. The present study was applied in terms of objective and a survey in terms of methodology. The statistical population of this study consisted of the residents and users of the decay central part of Zanjan, i.e., 375 citizens selected as the sample population by random sampling. The findings of this study in the "Balanced Renovation Model" suggested that the urban decay of central Zanjan was out of balance from a social dimension and the priorities for action to balance the area were determined. The output of the "Dynamic Software System Model" also indicated that system will be moving in an unbalanced direction in the future. Dynamic system models also confirm the accuracy of Balanced Theory results. Today, it is critical to apply the teachings and experiences of the past by using the models, especially a conceptual model making use of a local theory being compatible with the context of our country in order to improve the urban environment, such as renovating urban decay. Therefore, this research based its framework on a new process to achieve positive changes in rejuvenating decay areas. In this article, the "Balanced Renovation of Urban Decay" Theory was first explained and it was used in a case study (central urban decayed tissue of Zanjan). The results of the first step were used for "dynamic modeling of decayed networks". The research variables used for modeling included a large number of indicators, components and social elements of the urban decay, resulting from valid theoretical sources and field studies, questionnaires, as well as using the experts’ opinions through Delphi method. This is while they are finally reduced to important and effective indicators using factor analysis method. The present study was applied in terms of objective and a survey in terms of methodology. The statistical population of this study consisted of the residents and users of the decay central part of Zanjan, i.e., 375 citizens selected as the sample population by random sampling. The findings of this study in the "Balanced Renovation Model" suggested that the urban decay of central Zanjan was out of balance from a social dimension and the priorities for action to balance the area were determined. The output of the "Dynamic Software System Model" also indicated that system will be moving in an unbalanced direction in the future. Dynamic system models also confirm the accuracy of Balanced Theory results. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - شکل گیری روایی هویت معلم از منظر نظریه پیچیدگی
Saeed Ayiewbey Mehdi Sarkhoshهویت معلم از منظرهای مختلفی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. با این حال، پژوهش حاضر تلاش میکند تا فرآیند شکلگیری هویت را از طریق روایت روایت از چارچوب نظریه پیچیدگی بررسی کند. در یک طرح مطالعه موردی، دادههای مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته و یادداشتهای روزانه معلم زبان انگلیسی تا Moreهویت معلم از منظرهای مختلفی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. با این حال، پژوهش حاضر تلاش میکند تا فرآیند شکلگیری هویت را از طریق روایت روایت از چارچوب نظریه پیچیدگی بررسی کند. در یک طرح مطالعه موردی، دادههای مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته و یادداشتهای روزانه معلم زبان انگلیسی تازهکار ایرانی به منظور شناسایی عوامل جذب هویت مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. در نتیجه، چهار جاذبه اصلی که قویترین تأثیر را بر روند شکلگیری هویت داشتند، شناسایی شدند. سپس مکانیسمهایی که از طریق آن این جاذبهها بر شکلگیری هویت تأثیر میگذارند مورد بحث قرار میگیرند. در نهایت، استدلال شده است که ساخت روایی هویت مستلزم آن است که فرد بر جنبههای مختلف هویت خود در زمانهای مختلف تأکید کند. و اینکه تغییرات فازی که زمانی رخ میدهد که سیستم هویت در جهت جذب کننده دیگری حرکت میکند، توسط الزامات لحظه به لحظه شکلگیری روایت آغاز شده است. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - A Novel High-Order Fuzzy Systems with Decomposition in to Zero-and First-Order Fuzzy Structures in Nonlinear Dynamic Systems
Zohreh Zeighami Mohammad Reza Jahed Motlag Ali Moarefianpour -
Open Access Article
17 - یک روش برای حل مسائل برنامه ریزی درجه دوم محدب بر پایه معادلات جبری- دیفرانسیلی
معصومه عباسیدر این مقاله، یک مدل بر پایه معادلات جبری دیفرانسیلی برای حل مسائل برنامه ریزی درجه دوم محدب پیشنهاد می گردد. ثابت می شود رهیافت جدید تضمین می نماید که جواب بهینه برای حل این کلاس از مسائل بهینه سازی را تولید نماید. این مقاله همچنین نشان می دهد روش های نقطه درونی سنتی ب Moreدر این مقاله، یک مدل بر پایه معادلات جبری دیفرانسیلی برای حل مسائل برنامه ریزی درجه دوم محدب پیشنهاد می گردد. ثابت می شود رهیافت جدید تضمین می نماید که جواب بهینه برای حل این کلاس از مسائل بهینه سازی را تولید نماید. این مقاله همچنین نشان می دهد روش های نقطه درونی سنتی برای حل مسائل برنامه ریزی درجه دوم محدب می توانند به عنوان حالت ویژه ای از روش های معادلات جبری دیفرانسیلی جدید دیده شوند. نتایج عددی کارایی مدل پیشنهادی را نشان می دهد. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - استفاده از روش تجزیه Adomian و روش تکرار متغیر برای مشکلات سیستم پویا
Babatunde Yisaروش تجزیه Adomian و روش تکرار Variational Hee برای مشکلات نوسانگر غیرخطی که شامل نوسانگرهای محافظه کار است ، اعمال می شوند. به دلیل الگوریتم هایی که اصطلاحات غیرخطی را در مشکلات پذیرفته اند ، روش ها برای موارد عمومی و خاص موثر هستند. این دو روش بر روی برخی از مشکلات خاص Moreروش تجزیه Adomian و روش تکرار Variational Hee برای مشکلات نوسانگر غیرخطی که شامل نوسانگرهای محافظه کار است ، اعمال می شوند. به دلیل الگوریتم هایی که اصطلاحات غیرخطی را در مشکلات پذیرفته اند ، روش ها برای موارد عمومی و خاص موثر هستند. این دو روش بر روی برخی از مشکلات خاص در ادبیات آزمایش شده است ، و نتایج به دست آمده در مقایسه با نتایج به دست آمده از طریق استفاده از روش تعادل انرژی مقایسه شده است. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - ارزیابی اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی بر منابع آب زیرزمینی استان خراسان جنوبی با استفاده از رویکرد سیستم دینامیک
مصطفی تیموری سیدمهدی میردامادی Seyed Jamal Farajollah Hosseini هدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم و خشکسالی بر منابع آب زیرزمینی استان خراسان جنوبی می باشد، در این راستا این مسئله با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم طی مراحل مدل سازی پویایی سیستم شامل بیان مسئله، شرح سیستم، توسعه مدل، تست مدل و استفاده از More هدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم و خشکسالی بر منابع آب زیرزمینی استان خراسان جنوبی می باشد، در این راستا این مسئله با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم طی مراحل مدل سازی پویایی سیستم شامل بیان مسئله، شرح سیستم، توسعه مدل، تست مدل و استفاده از مدل برای تجزیه و تحلیل سیاست ها دنبال شد و تاثیر اعمال سناریوهای مختلف برونزا شامل سناریوهای خشکسالی، مدیریت عرضه آب و رشد جمعیت ارزیابی گردید و رفتار متغیرهای حجم منابع آب و حجم سرانه آب تجدید پذیر استان طی سال های 1392 تا 1420 از طریق کاربرد نرم افزار Vensim شبیه سازی شد. اطلاعات مورد نیاز با مراجعه به سازمان های زیربط مانند سازمان آب منطقه ای خراسان جنوبی، سازمان جهاد کشاورزی خراسان جنوبی و مرکز آمار ایران جمع آوری گردید و اطلاعات ورودی مدل در قالب فایل اکسل به مدل فراخوانی شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که سناریوی کنترل بهره برداری از منابع آبی، اثر مثبت چشمگیری بر موجودی آبخوان های استان خراسان جنوبی داشته به طوری که موجودی آبخوان های استان در سناریوی اعمال کنترل بهره برداری از منابع آب، نسبت به سناریوی عدم کنترل در خشکسالی های مختلف، در تمامی سال های مورد بررسی، تفاوتی فاحش داشته است، همچنین نتایج بررسی آب تجدید پذیر استان نشان می دهد که خشکسالی ها تاثیر منفی بر حجم آب تجدید پذیر استان داشته و وجود خشکسالی ها به همراه افزایش نرخ جمعیت، سرانه آب تجدید پذیر استان را کاهش داده است. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - بررسی اثرات شیوه ی پسامتد بر هیجانات تحصیلی ، خودکارامدی تحصیلی، پیشرفت تحصیلی وعزت نفس فراگیران دوره دوم متوسطه پایه دوازدهم شهر زاهدان از منظر تئوری پویا
Yalda Hooman رضا رضوانی Shahram Afrazهدف از انجام این پژوهش بررسی اثرات شیوه ی پسامتد بر هیجانات تحصیلی ، خودکارامدی تحصیلی، پیشرفت تحصیلی وعزت نفس فراگیران دوره دوم متوسطه پایه دوازدهم بوده است. 120 دانش آموز دختر پایه دوازدهم دوره دوم متوسطه شهر زاهدان مرکز استان سیستان وبلوچستان به صورت تصاد Moreهدف از انجام این پژوهش بررسی اثرات شیوه ی پسامتد بر هیجانات تحصیلی ، خودکارامدی تحصیلی، پیشرفت تحصیلی وعزت نفس فراگیران دوره دوم متوسطه پایه دوازدهم بوده است. 120 دانش آموز دختر پایه دوازدهم دوره دوم متوسطه شهر زاهدان مرکز استان سیستان وبلوچستان به صورت تصادفی انتخاب وبه دو گروه کنترل و آزمایش تقسیم شدند ودر هر گروه 60 فراگیر قرار گرفتند پیشرفت تحصیلی آنها ازطریق پیش آزمون اندازه گیری شد. سپس آزمون های خودکارآمدی مورگان 1999، هیجانات تحصیلی پکران2005،واعتماد به نفس روزنبرگ (1965)اجراشد.گروه کنترل آموزشش سنتی را دریافت کردوگروه آزمایش شیوه نوین آموزشی را در طول سال دریافت کردند.در پایان آموزش ، شرکت ککنده هر دو گروه مجدد در پس ازمون سنجیده شدند . نتایج نهایی براساس آزمون ثانویه ارزیابی شد . اطلاعات بدست آمده بر اساس نسخهSPSS22 به دو صورت استنباطی و توصیفی تحلیل وبررسی شد.نتایج بیانگر تاثیر شیوه پسامتد ونقش آن در آموزش و در افزایش پیشرفت تحصیلی ،خودکارآمدی،وهیجانات تحصیلی بود،واعتماد به نفس فراگیران بود . Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - Dynamic System Model of Steel Industry Supply Chain with Economic Goals Approach
Reza Besharatizadeh Reza Radfar َAbbas Toloie AshlaghiAbstractNowadays, organizations need an efficient supply chain and proper supply chain management to face global competition. The steel industry is considered the most strategic industrial good in the world because of its large impact on the economic and industrial deve MoreAbstractNowadays, organizations need an efficient supply chain and proper supply chain management to face global competition. The steel industry is considered the most strategic industrial good in the world because of its large impact on the economic and industrial development of countries. Paying attention to the supply chain of this industry, as the fundamental industry is crucial because of its key role in the national economy and the welfare of communities. This research aims to provide a dynamic system model for the country's steel supply chain to help policymakers and managers to have more effective management in the industry. To present the model, causal rings are drawn by the association of steel industry experts and then modeled by VENSIM. Following are the required tests for model validation. Scenario-based simulation results show that a ±20% change in the two model parameters that reflect technology growth and investment coefficient will have a significant impact on the achievement of the goals. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - Clarification of a profitable trading system based on dynamic analysis
Atefeh Bagheri Naghneh Sayyed Mohammad Reza DavoodiPurpose: The purpose of this study is to predict stock returns and ultimately present a trading strategy based on dynamic analysis.Methodology: The behavior of a stock portfolio can be considered as a complex and chaotic dynamic system in which the return of the portfol MorePurpose: The purpose of this study is to predict stock returns and ultimately present a trading strategy based on dynamic analysis.Methodology: The behavior of a stock portfolio can be considered as a complex and chaotic dynamic system in which the return of the portfolio is a state variable that reflects the state of the system. Dynamic mode decomposition is one of the methods in which with the help of available data, a linear approximation of the nonlinear operator governing the system is obtained and by calculating the main modes, the system output can be explicitly calculated in terms of time.Findings: The results of research on a portfolio consisting of 14 industries from the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2010 to 2019 and considering the 5 main modes of system guidance show that the optimal lag is six and the Sharp ratio obtained from the trading system of two Equivalent to the buy and hold system.Originality / Value: Therefore, the use of this trading system is recommended for short-term trading. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - Designing a Dynamic Model for Strategic Evaluation of Innovation with a Multiple Scenario Approach
Roxaneh Charkhchi abas toloi mahmood alborziInnovation is one of the factors which can help the organization to meet its goals and also make new and effective strategies for it. Since the innovation will change during the time, this research has done with the aim of presenting a dynamic model in order to improve MoreInnovation is one of the factors which can help the organization to meet its goals and also make new and effective strategies for it. Since the innovation will change during the time, this research has done with the aim of presenting a dynamic model in order to improve the innovation evaluation system in the automotive industry. Two main dimensions of innovation, technological innovation and management innovation were drawn of related researches and key criteria of them were determined. The relations between these criteria were found by surveys, experts’ comments, subject literature, observations and data bases. Finally, the dynamic model of innovation evaluation was presented. This model has a capability of forecasting the behavior of each variable till 2022. The results of this research show that various variables of the model are sensitive to the changes in R&D budgets in automotive industry and appropriate changes in R&D budget will result in upgraded innovation level Manuscript profile
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