Clarification of a profitable trading system based on dynamic analysis

Subject Areas : Financial Engineering

Atefeh  Bagheri Naghneh ¹ (Department of Industrial Engineering, Dehaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dehaghan, Iran.)
Sayyed Mohammad Reza  Davoodi ² (Department of Management, Dehaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dehaghan, Iran.)

Received: 2021-12-14 Accepted : 2022-04-09 Published : 2022-05-22

Keywords: singular value decomposition, Dynamic system, dynamic mode decomposition, eigenvector and eigenvalue,

Abstract :

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to predict stock returns and ultimately present a trading strategy based on dynamic analysis.Methodology: The behavior of a stock portfolio can be considered as a complex and chaotic dynamic system in which the return of the portfolio is a state variable that reflects the state of the system. Dynamic mode decomposition is one of the methods in which with the help of available data, a linear approximation of the nonlinear operator governing the system is obtained and by calculating the main modes, the system output can be explicitly calculated in terms of time.Findings: The results of research on a portfolio consisting of 14 industries from the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2010 to 2019 and considering the 5 main modes of system guidance show that the optimal lag is six and the Sharp ratio obtained from the trading system of two Equivalent to the buy and hold system.Originality / Value: Therefore, the use of this trading system is recommended for short-term trading.

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