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Open Access Article
1 - Foresight on the effects of Implementation of water transfer from the Sirvan River (The Arid Areas Project) on the Location-Spatial Changes in Mehran County (Iran)
hamid jalalian farhad azizpour hossein mehdizadeh javad alibeygiBackground: Nowdays, regarding to rapid environmental changes and uncertainties due to it, “Foresight” is considered as a strategy for Future research can be considered as one of these strategies for water comprehensive management Objective: This article di MoreBackground: Nowdays, regarding to rapid environmental changes and uncertainties due to it, “Foresight” is considered as a strategy for Future research can be considered as one of these strategies for water comprehensive management Objective: This article discusses about the Foresight of locational-spatial changes due to implementation of the project from the Sirvan River to dried regions in the county of Mehran (Arid Areas Project) on the horizon of 2029.Methods: The theoretical framework of this research is based on new approaches to prospective, analytical, and exploratory science, which is carried out using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Due to the nature of this research, have been used of Delphi methods, structural analysis and scenario analysis findings: The data of this research includes 13 effective factors that were extracted from among 30 primary factors using Delphi method and Mick McAware software.Then, based on the idea of scenario planning, there were defined 52 possible and probable situations in the future of the county for the above factors and with the formation of a 52×52 matrix using the Scenario Wizard software, Finally extracted and analyzed 1 very desirable scenario, 11 desirable scenarios, 2 midway scenarios and continuation of the Continue current current situation, 8 scenarios on the eve of the crisis and 1 critical scenario that is in total of 23 believable scenarios. Conclusion: Possible scenarios, although they show high hopes for favorable conditions in the county, but on the other hand, do not consider the occurrence of critical situations as unexpected. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Futures investment and financing of rail transportation industry (machinery and equipment)
Mohammad Reza Fathi Mohammad Hassan Maleki Hossein MoghaddamTransportation industry is considered as one of the most important elements of national economy and because of possessing basically role, has abundant effects on proces MoreTransportation industry is considered as one of the most important elements of national economy and because of possessing basically role, has abundant effects on process of economic growth of the country. Thus, without existence of transportation network, installations and lateral equipment and desired fleet, imagination of growth and general development of country sounds impossible. in this research with applying two methods of futures study including structural analysis and scenario planning at first proceed to identifying and analyzing key effective factors and then futures scenarios of investing and financing in railway transportation industry (machinery and equipment sector) will be wrote. First data of this research are gathered with using interview with managers and experts of railway industry, literature review and review antecedent researches and analyzed in the form of expert questionnaire and using Mic-mac software. among 40 effective factors, 16 important factors are identified and with analyzing Mic-mac software, eventually 3 effective key factors including economic sanctions, inflation and monetary and financial policies specified. These factors used as basically foundations in writing scenarios. Set of probable conditions of these factors specified by experts and then 7 uncertain conditions considered for them and entered to Scenario wizard software. with analysis of Scenario wizard software, 5 scenarios with high consistency presented and then with regard to experts viewpoints, 2 effective key factors including economic sanctions and monetary and financial policies that have high uncertainty and high importance, identified as pivots of writing future scenarios and then 4 scenarios for future of investing and financing in railway transportation industry presented. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Future Study of Decision Models in Business Using Scenario Planning Approach
Mohammad Hassan Maleki Mohammad Reza FathiFrom the beginning, Operations Research or decision models have been met with several developments. Futures survey of OR and the necessity of planning for it in literature is considered less. Sporadic activities in the literature haven’t required methodological. MoreFrom the beginning, Operations Research or decision models have been met with several developments. Futures survey of OR and the necessity of planning for it in literature is considered less. Sporadic activities in the literature haven’t required methodological. This study aims to identify the exploratory scenarios of OR by Critical Uncertainties approach. To develop the plausible scenarios of OR, the comments of domestic and foreign experts were collected by questionnaire with Delphi approach. After extracting the uncertainties, the plausible scenarios of OR were identified by seminar workshops. These scenarios include: solar system, Esfandiar eye, competitor Satraps, Phoenix. Imagination of the single future for all academic departments is away from reality. According to the conditions, each of these futures and a combination of them are imaginable. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Analysis and Investigating the Factors Affecting the Implementation of Policy in the Judiciary Based on the Nakamura and Smallwood Model
akbar etbariyan roghaye keshvarianazadcontext: The judiciary, with its effective role in resolving contest, protecting public rights, expanding and enforcing justice, implements poblic policies that affect all sections of society. Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine and analyze the factors a Morecontext: The judiciary, with its effective role in resolving contest, protecting public rights, expanding and enforcing justice, implements poblic policies that affect all sections of society. Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine and analyze the factors affecting the policy implementation policy in the judiciary Methods: Based on the literature on the implementation and policy implementation in the judiciary, the factors influencing the implementation of the policy based on the Nakamura and Smallwood approach, the research model was determined. To collect data, interviews were conducted with 28 experts working in the field of Policy, implementing and Evaluation judiciary policies. Sampling was done purposefully and data analysis was performed using qualitative approaches and interpretive analysis method for data analysis. Results: According to the results, all editors, administrators and evaluators are effective in implementing policies, and administrators have the most important role, and there is a deep and interdependent relationship between administrators and policy makers in the judiciary, the factors involved in this relationship are clearly Goals, the nature of the tasks, and the amount of control that they apply to each other. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Prediction of runoff changes in Zarrineh river basin under climate change conditions via hydrological simulation
Maliheh Rahvareh Baharak Motamedvaziri Alireza Moghaddamnia Ali MoridiIt is necessary to study the behavior of the river under the effect of climate change, especially the runoff in the future periods. This study evaluated the effect of climate change on the runoff of Zarrineh river basin (the largest sub-basin of Lake Urmia) co MoreIt is necessary to study the behavior of the river under the effect of climate change, especially the runoff in the future periods. This study evaluated the effect of climate change on the runoff of Zarrineh river basin (the largest sub-basin of Lake Urmia) considering the General Circulation Model (GCM) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). For this purpose, temperature and precipitation changes in the future periods in Zarrineh river basin were studied using climate data of Had GEM2-ES model during the period 2025-2050. The Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) was used to downscale climate data. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used to evaluate the impact of climate change on runoff the basin. Also, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly runoff. Then, downscaled results of the general circulation model interoduced to the SWAT model. And runoff changes at the outlet of the basin were simulated during 2025-2050. The results showed that the SWAT model has good performance in runoff simulation. The average results of the CCT model revealed that the maximum and minimum temperatures would increase in 2025-2050. The annual precipitation could increase 3.6% under RCP 2.6 and decrease 2.9% under RCP 8.5. The seasonal trends in the runoff showed a decreasing trend in winter, spring and summer while an increasing trend in autumn. Annual runoff under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 has decreased 6.5% and 30% respectively. Which subsequently reduces the discharge of this river to Lake Urmia. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Qualitative Modeling for Managing Water Allocation in Rivers
Sepideh Sahami Alireza Shokoohi Behnaz Khatar Farbod ChehrzadBackground and Aim: Evaluating the response of rivers to natural changes and man-made manipulations are of great importance in managing river water quality. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the negative effects of quantitative management without qualitative MoreBackground and Aim: Evaluating the response of rivers to natural changes and man-made manipulations are of great importance in managing river water quality. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the negative effects of quantitative management without qualitative management of river flow. In this regard, by simulating water quality in river exploitation scenarios based on environmental policies, including minimum flow allocation, reduction of flow quality from aquaculture standards, taking into account the quality factors and pollution caused by the development of marginal urban communities, will be discussed.Method: The present study, which should be omitted was conducted on the Azadrud River in the Sarvabad region of Kurdistan Province. In this regard, by measuring quantitative and qualitative parameters in two monthly periods, the QUAL2KW quality model was calibrated and validated. In the first part of the study, the quality of the river along 22 km was simulated by changing the flow rate based on flow allocation scenarios in the Tenant method, and in the second part, the values of qualitative parameters in different flow management scenarios were compared with the accepted standard values for aquaculture (fish).Results: Based on the results, while the minimum environmental discharge according to the Tenant method for the studied river is 1.1 m3/sec, the critical quality discharge for March and April were estimated at 7.7 and 10 m3/sec, respectively. The study showed that the poor tenant scenario is not suitable for allocating the minimum environmental flow to meet the quality requirements of the river at all. Conclusion: The results showed that the conventional flow allocation method, i.e., without considering the quality conditions of the river, is not suitable and can cause serious damage to the environmental conditions of the river. This study showed that ignoring the quality conditions at the time of flow allocation causes the ecological health of the stream to be lost and the river to not meet the required standard for aquaculture. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Outlook for the effects of climate change on drought according to the fifth IPCC report (case study: Ilam)
Hadi Ramezani Etedali Fariba hodabakhshi Elahe KananiBackground and Aim: The process of climate change, especially the change in temperature and precipitation, and its effect on the drought phenomenon constitute the most important topic of discussion in environmental sciences. Studying climate change and its effect on the MoreBackground and Aim: The process of climate change, especially the change in temperature and precipitation, and its effect on the drought phenomenon constitute the most important topic of discussion in environmental sciences. Studying climate change and its effect on the severity and frequency of droughts in the coming decades can considerably contribute to the planning for the proper use of water resources and adapting to the destructive effects of droughts. To this end, based on the SDSM microscale method, precipitation and temperature during the 2020-2100 period were predicted in the present study using the large-scale CanESM2 model, and the effects of climate change on the meteorological drought in Ilam Province were studied using the SPI and RDI indices.Method: In this study, the required climatic data are obtained through one of the data reporting sites of the IPCC AR5. Twenty one CMIP5 models have been used to predict Precipitation and temperature parameters in the future. The weighting method of observational means was used to investigate the uncertainty caused by using the studied models. Then, using the SDSM model, meteorological data are generated under three scenarios: RCP 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the CanESM2 model. Model historical data from 1993 to 2005 will be used to analyze the SDSM model using NCEP re-analysis data, and data from 2006 to 2100 will be used to estimate future climate change. The SPI and RDI time series were calculated in three scales of 3, 6 and 12 months for the historical and future period. The intensity, duration and frequency of the drought, according to the run theory for the spi and RDI on scale 3, 6 and 12 months.Results: According to the results of the uncertainty analysis, the CanESM2 model had the highest weight compared to other models for both temperature and precipitation variables. Analysis of trend in precipitation and temperature data by non - parametric mann - kendall test showed that temperature in scenario rcp8.5 has a significant positive trend ( increasing ) at 0.01 and precipitation has decreasing trend. The results of drought monitoring showed that in both SPI and RDI indices, the frequency of dry period’s decreases with increasing time scale, which is accompanied by an increase in the severity and duration of drought. The RDI index shows higher drought characteristics than SPI due to considering the average temperature in calculating dry periods. The greatest drought in the historical period according to the SPI index on a 12-month scale has an intensity of 38.22 and a duration of 26 months. RDI index on a 12-month scale has an intensity of 39.14 and a duration of 26 months.The study area will experience more severe and longer droughts in the future according to all three scenarios than in the historical period. The severity of droughts produced by RCP4.5 RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on 12-month SPI is 11%, 52% and 65%.Conclusion: The results of the analysis with the SDSM model and the SPI and RDI drought indices indicated that in the future climatic conditions in the 2020-2100 period, an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation are probable. To wit, temperature rises by 3.798 C and precipitation decreases by 6.8%. The results also revealed that the study area will experience more severe and longer droughts in the future than in the historical period under all three RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. As the time scale of the drought index increases, the severity and duration of the drought increases. The RDI index has a high behavioral similarity to the SPI, but the RDI index is sensitive to environmental changes and provides better results. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - Identification of Appropriate Solutions for Managing Surface Water Consumption of West Azerbaijan Province Using Dynamic System Modeling
Sheida Yousefi Seyed Mahdi Mirdamadi Seyed Jamal Farjollah Hosseini Farhad LashgararaBackground and Aim: The share of agricultural sector in West Azerbaijan province, Iran from surface water abstraction is 91.2%. Excessive consumption of water resources, drought and destruction of agricultural lands, dependence of work and livelihood of 1.2 million popu MoreBackground and Aim: The share of agricultural sector in West Azerbaijan province, Iran from surface water abstraction is 91.2%. Excessive consumption of water resources, drought and destruction of agricultural lands, dependence of work and livelihood of 1.2 million population of province on the agricultural sector, the adoption of long-term development plans, have intensified the water crisis in agricultural sector. Therefore, managing the consumption of surface water is essential. This study investigates the effect of agricultural, economic, policy-making, climatic, socio-cultural and educational scenarios on management of surface water consumption and availability.Method: The present study is an applied research has been carried out using the dynamic system approach in order to achieve sustainable management of water resources in West Azerbaijan province. First, the statistical data from the previous years (1991-2018) are entered into the system using Excel and SPSS software. Then, the dynamic system model is developed in VENSIM software. To ensure the efficiency of the model in evaluating policies, the model validation test is performed. After making sure that the model works efficiency, population growth scenarios with different fertility rates, PS1 (2.11 children), PS2 (1.95 children), PS3 (1.5 children) and PS4 (2.6 Children) and climatic scenarios with a probability of 20% annual rainfall reduction, continuation of the current rainfall trend and 20% annual rainfall improvement are introduced to the model. Additionally, investment scenarios with the aim of 0.5% improvement in the annual irrigation efficiency and the crop scenario such as low-consumption cultivation pattern are introduced to the model. Moreover, the impacts of participatory and education scenarios, are simulated up to the horizon of 2051.Results: The results showed that in the validation test there is a high correlation between the simulated values and the observed values of surface water, and the model is effective in evaluating policies. Upon continuation of the rainfall current trend, available surface water decreases by 3.76% during the simulation period (2018-2051). Droughts intensify with a decrease of 20% of annual rainfall due to the direct effect of rainfall on runoff, available surface water is reduced by 20.54%. The largest decrease in the surface water content is related to the scenario of reduced rainfall (-20%) together with the scenario of increasing fertility rate (ps4), which cause a decrease in the available surface water by 46.15%. Population growth has increased the total water consumption and even agricultural water demand by 27% over the 2051 horizon. Simultaneously using low-consumption cultivation pattern scenarios, investment to improve irrigation efficiency, participatory activities and training programs to improve water management, water consumption decrease by 29.20% and agricultural water demand from the surface water decrease by 31.37% under these conditions, the available surface water improves by 9.12% to the horizon of 2051.Conclusion: The results showed that, it is necessary to review population scenarios at the national level. Also, the agricultural scenario of observing the pattern of low-consumption cultivation with reducing water demand per hectare is known as the best scenario and its application has increased the available surface water by 2.45 times.Keywords: Water resource management, Economic/policy-making scenarios, Climatic scenarios, West Azerbaijan provinceBackground and Aim: The share of agricultural sector in West Azerbaijan province, Iran from surface water abstraction is 91.2%. Excessive consumption of water resources, drought and destruction of agricultural lands, dependence of work and livelihood of 1.2 million population of province on the agricultural sector, the adoption of long-term development plans, have intensified the water crisis in agricultural sector. Therefore, managing the consumption of surface water is essential. This study investigates the effect of agricultural, economic, policy-making, climatic, socio-cultural and educational scenarios on management of surface water consumption and availability.Method: The present study is an applied research has been carried out using the dynamic system approach in order to achieve sustainable management of water resources in West Azerbaijan province. First, the statistical data from the previous years (1991-2018) are entered into the system using Excel and SPSS software. Then, the dynamic system model is developed in VENSIM software. To ensure the efficiency of the model in evaluating policies, the model validation test is performed. After making sure that the model works efficiency, population growth scenarios with different fertility rates, PS1 (2.11 children), PS2 (1.95 children), PS3 (1.5 children) and PS4 (2.6 Children) and climatic scenarios with a probability of 20% annual rainfall reduction, continuation of the current rainfall trend and 20% annual rainfall improvement are introduced to the model. Additionally, investment scenarios with the aim of 0.5% improvement in the annual irrigation efficiency and the crop scenario such as low-consumption cultivation pattern are introduced to the model. Moreover, the impacts of participatory and education scenarios, are simulated up to the horizon of 2051.Results: The results showed that in the validation test there is a high correlation between the simulated values and the observed values of surface water, and the model is effective in evaluating policies. Upon continuation of the rainfall current trend, available surface water decreases by 3.76% during the simulation period (2018-2051). Droughts intensify with a decrease of 20% of annual rainfall due to the direct effect of rainfall on runoff, available surface water is reduced by 20.54%. The largest decrease in the surface water content is related to the scenario of reduced rainfall (-20%) together with the scenario of increasing fertility rate (ps4), which cause a decrease in the available surface water by 46.15%. Population growth has increased the total water consumption and even agricultural water demand by 27% over the 2051 horizon. Simultaneously using low-consumption cultivation pattern scenarios, investment to improve irrigation efficiency, participatory activities and training programs to improve water management, water consumption decrease by 29.20% and agricultural water demand from the surface water decrease by 31.37% under these conditions, the available surface water improves by 9.12% to the horizon of 2051.Conclusion: The results showed that, it is necessary to review population scenarios at the national level. Also, the agricultural scenario of observing the pattern of low-consumption cultivation with reducing water demand per hectare is known as the best scenario and its application has increased the available surface water by 2.45 times. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Modeling and Bivariate Analysis of Meteorological Drought Using Data Generation with Climate Change Approach (Case Study: Lake Urmia)
Farzad Khezri Mohsen Irandost Navid Jalalkamali Najme YazdanpanahBackground and Aim: Climate Climate change is one of the important factors that will affect different parts of human life on the planet and will have detrimental effects on the environment, socio-economic, and especially water resources. Knowledge of climate change MoreBackground and Aim: Climate Climate change is one of the important factors that will affect different parts of human life on the planet and will have detrimental effects on the environment, socio-economic, and especially water resources. Knowledge of climate change can provide comprehensive plans in various areas of management regarding the monitoring of droughts and their potential risks. Drought can occur in any area, even wetlands. This phenomenon depends on various factors and parameters and one of the most important symbols of this phenomenon is the occurrence of drought is a decrease in rainfall and therefore the analysis of precipitation data is of special importance to study drought. The purpose of this study is to analyze drought variables using SPI and SPImod indices and detailed functions.Method: In this study, to model the multivariate analysis of drought in Lake Urmia basin using RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 representative concentration pathway scenarios, data and models of atmospheric circulation of historical data (1991-2010) for three near horizons (2030- 2011), medium (2065-2046) and round (2099-2080) were simulated and produced. Then, using SPImod index and copula functions, drought multivariate analysis was performed in MATLAB software environment. In general, first, using the mentioned indicators (two indicators, SPI and SPImod), the characteristics of drought intensity and duration were extracted, then, using coding in MATLAB software environment, eight families of Archimedean detailed functions were used.Results: The results of multivariate analysis showed that the Joe copula function is the best copula function for drought multivariate analysis (For analysis of both severity and duration of drought for the study area). Also, the results of probability and the joint return period showed that in the coming periods, at least droughts of the same level as historical droughts and even more severe will occur. Thus, by studying the period of combined and conditional returns and Kendall, the results showed that at a certain critical probability level, the amount of Kendall return period is much more than the standard return period, so that this difference increases with increasing that certain amount.Conclusion: The results obtained with the climate change approach on the meteorological drought of Lake Urmia showed that in the coming periods we will see an increase in temperature, which will affect the rate of trade in the region and water resources, on the other hand, because the data Meteorology and hydrology are used to calculate the types of droughts, so droughts affected by climate change will be so that in future periods 46% to 48% of the months will be dry in different horizons. Finally, the results of the time series of indicators showed that during the statistical period at least 40% of the months were dry and this intensity of droughts in the Urmia station is much higher than others. The modified SPI largely eliminates the disadvantages of conventional SPIs and takes into account seasonal variations in precipitation in the calculation of the SPI index. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - The Effect of Climate Change on Evaporation variations from the chah nimeh reservoirs of sistan
hossein bazzi hossein ebrahimi babak aminnejadBackground and Objective: Evaporation is one of the wasteful methods of water resources in geographical areas and is of special importance in the study of water resources.Material and Methodology: In the present study, databases including Chah Nimeh dam evaporation data MoreBackground and Objective: Evaporation is one of the wasteful methods of water resources in geographical areas and is of special importance in the study of water resources.Material and Methodology: In the present study, databases including Chah Nimeh dam evaporation data and large-scale network data have been prepared. The SDSM model is used to simulate the evaporation of the coming decades under three scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The basic modeling period is from 1983 to 2005 (23 years)Findings: Comparison of evaporation estimates for the next two time periods and under different scenarios showed that for the time period 2100-2080 scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 estimated higher values for evaporation. Examination of inputs showed that air temperature, geopotential height and wind indices have the greatest impact on the evaporation of wells in SistanDiscussion and Conclusion: The results of this study showed that the rate of evaporation in the period of increasing 2100-2080 will experience more than 300 mm per year. The greatest increase in evaporation will be in the warm period of the year. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Evaluation of the effects of SSP scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) on water resources and agricultural crop in Hashtgerd region with the approach of applying an adaptation strategy
Mostafa Rezayi zaman Ali Reza Massah Bavani Saman JavadiBackground and Objective: Considering the not very suitable state of the country's water resources as well as the phenomenon of climate change and its effects, simulating the state of climate change in the future and evaluating its effects in order to reduce vulnerabili MoreBackground and Objective: Considering the not very suitable state of the country's water resources as well as the phenomenon of climate change and its effects, simulating the state of climate change in the future and evaluating its effects in order to reduce vulnerability and deal with it can be very important in future decisions. In this regard, in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change and benefit from its possible positive effects in watersheds, various adaptation strategies are presented. In this research, adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector under the CMIP6-SSP climate change scenarios has been investigated and evaluated. Considering the characteristics of the Hashtgerd region and the risks that threaten agriculture in the region, this research tries to have a comprehensive view of this system. For this purpose, adaptation strategies to reduce the negative effects of climate change in the agricultural sector were evaluated. Material and Methodology: In this research, the SWAT model was used to simulate and evaluate the adaptive strategy in Hashtgerd region in 2018. To model climate change conditions in the region, the NorESM2-MM climate model related to the 6th IPCC report and different SSP scenarios (SSP1.26, SSP2.54, SSP3.70, SSP 5.85) were used and minimum and maximum temperature data and the precipitation were downscaled for the years 2020 to 2049. After calculating the changes in temperature and rainfall compared to the current conditions, the values of these changes were applied to the SWAT model in order to investigate its effect on the water resources of Hashtgerd region. Finally, the values of water stress and crop performance were estimated under the conditions of climate change. Findings: The results indicated an average increase in water stress and also a decrease in yield of crops other than corn in all SSP scenarios. After evaluating the effects of climate change in the region, in order to adapt to these changes in the agricultural sector, two adaptation strategies were used 1) The strategy of changing the cultivation pattern from tomato and alfalfa crops to wheat and barley and 2) Changing the cultivation pattern from tomato and alfalfa to corn. These strategies were evaluated with criteria such as changes in water stress and yield of crops compared to BAU conditions. Discussion and Conclusion: The results showed that changing the cultivation pattern to wheat and barley has reduced the water stress of regional crops. In general, in the strategy of changing the cultivation pattern, the yield of all three crops, wheat, barley and corn, was increased compared to the BAU strategy. In the strategy of changing the cultivation pattern to corn, a significant reduction in water stress was estimated and, accordingly, the yield of this product was acceptable. This increase in performance is due to the reduction of water stress caused by the increase in available water. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Simulation of the Effect of Climate Change on Yield and Water Use Efficiency of Potato (Solanum Tuberosum L.) in Ardabil
Atousa Shafaroodi Abdolghayom Gholipouri Broumand SalahiBackground and Objective: Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperatures and their amount, and these changes can affect plant performance. In this study, the efficiency of DSSAT model in simulating tuber yield and water use efficiency of potato plant u MoreBackground and Objective: Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperatures and their amount, and these changes can affect plant performance. In this study, the efficiency of DSSAT model in simulating tuber yield and water use efficiency of potato plant under future climate change in different irrigation treatments and cultivar as an adaptation strategy was investigated.Material and Methodology: For this purpose, the precipitation data, minimum and maximum temperatures were produced using the LARS-WG5 statistical exponential micro-scale model (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator) under the HadCM3 general circulation model. The A1B scenario was applied to future periods of 2011-‎‎2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100 and the basic period 1988-2016. DSSAT model and SUBSTOR-Potato model were used to simulate potato growth and yield. Prior to use, field data collected from Ardebil, Iran that were calibrated and validated. Then the values of tuber yield and water use efficiency were simulated in future periods. Three irrigation treatments were used such as full irrigation (FI), 15% less than control (LI1) and 30% less than control treatment (LI2), with five potato cultivars Agria (the conventional cultivation of the area), Caeser, Savalan, clones 397081-1, and 397082-10 with 3 replications.Finding: According to the results, under the A1B scenario at the irrigation levels of FI and LI1, simulated values of tuber yield and water use efficiency showed the highest values for 2040 and 2070 compared to the basal period. It was also simulated by selecting Savalan cultivars, 397081-1, and 397082-10 the highest increase for tuber yield and water use efficiency values for 2040 and 2070 periods.Discussion and Conclusion: In following, The Less reduction in percentage of yield allowed the low irrigation (LI1) to replace the full irrigation (FI) treatment in future periods compared to the baseline period. Because of the importance of conserving and saving water resources in future climate ‎change periods, irrigation of 15% less than full irrigation is recommended for irrigation of potato ‎fields. The results of the simulation of water use efficiency can also emphasize the use of irrigation treatment 15% less than the control. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Sustainable Development of Ecotourism in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiyari Province, Iran, a Scenario Study
Farahnaz Ebrahimi Vahid Etemad -
Open Access Article
14 - Possible Future Scenarios of Diplomatic Relations with Neighboring Countries in the Field of Water
Mehdi shafaghati Amir houshang Mirkooshesh saeid kamyabi masoumeh zahiriWater is the most valuable factor of life, therefore, the lack of water resources plays an important role challenges between nations and governments. Competition for water resources will cause problems. Today, many countries are facing the problem of water shortage and MoreWater is the most valuable factor of life, therefore, the lack of water resources plays an important role challenges between nations and governments. Competition for water resources will cause problems. Today, many countries are facing the problem of water shortage and are on the verge of water stress. in addition to an interdisciplinary research, the connection of political science and hydro politic science in the issue of the disputes governing the border rivers of Iran should be addressed to the solutions of the disputes related to the northeast neighbors. In the intended research with the research method and the current research according to its purpose, it is developmental-duplicative. In this research, in line with the inductive-comparative strategy, two qualitative and quantitative methods have been used, and based on the determination of possible scenarios, the importance of diplomacy in the field of water, with two neighboring countries, will be explained. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Modeling and Predicting Climatic Elements of Temperature and Precipitation (Case Study: Ahar Synoptic Station)
shahram lotfi gharanchai Alireza shakiba amene dashtbozorghi Fatima rabbani Tayyaba akbari AziraniToday, climate change is considered a serious challenge to human societies and the environment and has caused anomalies in the Earth's climate system. According to scientists, an increase in the average global temperature is inevitable. In this study, the climatic eleme MoreToday, climate change is considered a serious challenge to human societies and the environment and has caused anomalies in the Earth's climate system. According to scientists, an increase in the average global temperature is inevitable. In this study, the climatic elements of temperature and precipitation of Ahar synoptic station for the near future (2026-2045), middle future (2046-2065) and distant future (2066-2085) using the outputs of the CanESM2 climate change model. Based on RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with SDSM exponential microscale model and also the annual trend of these changes was investigated using Mann-Kendall test. Based on the output of the model, it was determined that in the near future, precipitation will occur in February and November, and in the next two periods, mid and distant, in October, the greatest decrease will occur, and for April, May and August, the precipitation will increase. On average, the minimum temperature will increase to 0.38 degrees Celsius, the average temperature to 0.52 degrees Celsius and the maximum temperature to 0.82 degrees Celsius. Based on the results of Mann-Kendall test, the annual trend of precipitation in the future will be decreasing, the average temperature in the three scenarios will have an increasing and significant trend and the temperature elements (minimum, medium and maximum temperature) in RCP8.5 will be increasing and significant. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - Investigation of Climate Change on the Southern Coastal of the Caspian Sea Using SDSM, LARS-WG and Artificial Neural Network
Elham Ghasemifar Bohloul Alijani Mohammad SaligheIntroduction Average surface temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere have risen in response to climate change by 0.76°C over the past 150 years (IPCC, 2007) .These temperature increases have been accompanied by MoreIntroduction Average surface temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere have risen in response to climate change by 0.76°C over the past 150 years (IPCC, 2007) .These temperature increases have been accompanied by a reduction in snow and ice cover, retreat of sea ice and mountain glaciers, a longer growing season and earlier arrival of spring, increased frequency of extreme rainfall events, and more than 25,000 other changes in physical and biological indicators of global warming (Rosenzweig et al., 2008). Numerical models have used in such research after the late of year 1970s. The downscaling software such as SDSM,LARS_WG and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) became very common in the recent decades(e.g. Khan, et al., 2006).The results have showed that the SDSM is the most capable of reproducing various statistical characteristics of observed data in its downscaled results with 95% confidence level, the ANN is the least capable in this respect, and the LARS-WG is in between SDSM and ANN. According to Lopes et al (2008) in Assessment of climate change in Lisbon, the SDSM tool was able to better represent the minimum and maximum temperature whereas LARS-WG simulations is slightly better for precipitation. Material and methods This research has used downscaled methods for the minimum and maximum temperatures of five stations including Anzali, Rasht, Babolsar, Ramsar and Gorgan in the southern coastal of the Caspian sea by three models namely LARS-WG, SDSM and ANN during 1961-90 and 2010-2039 period under three scenarios of A1 , A2 , And B2 . For this purpose, first the observed data of 1961-90 period were obtained from Meteorological Organization of Iran. Since GCMs are restricted in their usefulness for local impact studies with their coarse spatial resolution (typically 50,000 km2) and inability to resolve important sub–grid scale features such as clouds and topography, the three downscaling models namely SDSM, LARS_WG and ANN were used to downscaling these coarse data. Two GCM data were obtained from the website: http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/index.cgi?Scenarios. Root Mean square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and Coefficient of determination ( ) were used to assessing the capability of the models. Result and discussions SDSM model results showed very small error ( 0.01 to 0.06°C) between observed and generate data using NCEP predictors-based data with a little more discrepancy using HADCM3 predictors-based data . The model output showed minimum and maximum temperature will rise during the future period with the exception of the months including April ,May and November. This warming trend was same for ANN with error range of 0.2 to 0.8°C. LARS-WG simulation showed temperature will rise for all months of the year with the error range of 0.1 to 0.2°C. The comparison betweem three models showed that the SDSM tool was able to better represent the minimum and maximum temperature. Conclusion According to this study the temperature increased during the target period. Temperature will increase during future period too.The SDSM and ANN model showed decrease in the temperature of the months including April, May and November. But the LARS_WG showed increase in the temperature in all month and all stations. The comparison of the models showed that the SDSM model has recorded the lowest error in the predicting of future temperatures. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - Performance Evaluation of BNU-ESM and MIROC-ESM models in Global Warming with a view to Future Climatic Parameters and Droughts (Case study: Gorganrood Catchment, Golestan Province)
دنیائی DonyaiiIn the present study, the effect of climate change on climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation and future droughts in Gorganrood catchment were evaluated using the output of two general circulation models called MIROC-ESM ﻭ BNU-ESM under three scenarios (i MoreIn the present study, the effect of climate change on climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation and future droughts in Gorganrood catchment were evaluated using the output of two general circulation models called MIROC-ESM ﻭ BNU-ESM under three scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP4.5 ﻭ RCP8. 5) for the two periods as the near future (2025-2060) and the far future (2061-2095). The outputs of MIROC-ESM and BNU-ESM model were downscaled by SDSM model and Change Factor method, respectively. In order to evaluate the performance of the two methods, the statistical indices such as R, RMSE and NSE were applied. And to assess droughts, the standard precipitation index (SPI) was used annually during the baseline (1961-2020) as well as the future periods. The results showed that the SDSM model has a higher performance in predicting both temperature and precipitation parameters than the Change Factor method. The results of temperature and precipitation changes in both near and far future periods determined the effect of Global Warming on the future climate of Gorganrood catchment, so that the average annual temperature increases in all scenarios in both models, while reduction in the average annual rainfall. Moreover, according to the results of both MIROC-ESM ﻭ BNU-ESM models, the annual SPI values will decrease in both near and far future periods under all three scenarios compared to the baseline period while the increases in meteorological drought. The results of general circulation models showed that the MIROC-ESM model estimates the lowest amount of rainfall, the highest values of temperature and the highest number of years with severe drought compared to the BNU-ESM model. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - The Foresight of Urban Development with Emphasis on Infrastructure Development (A Case study of Ardabil)
Simin Abafat masoumeh hafezrezazadeh maryam karimiyanbostaniIn the present study, the researchers have considered 30 major factors which were identified as indicators in the city's development in Ardabil. After determining the role, relationship and weight of the influential factors in the urban development, the indicators were MoreIn the present study, the researchers have considered 30 major factors which were identified as indicators in the city's development in Ardabil. After determining the role, relationship and weight of the influential factors in the urban development, the indicators were fed into the Mike Mac software. Finally, after scoring for compiling the scenarios, they were processed using the Wizard scenario software. Finally, 38 cases were obtained for 30 key factors affecting the future of Ardabil urban development. Combining these possible scenarios, 7176 combined scenarios were extracted. These scenarios included 22 high-compatibility, 7012 low-compatibility, and 142 incompatible scenarios. The results of the study showed that two scenarios were more likely to occur in the future development of Ardabil of which one was favorable and under ideal conditions (progressive scenario) while the other one was relatively favorable and intermediate. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - Forsight of Golestan province tourism industry: scenario and Suggested solutions
zahra aldaghi abdolhamid ebrahimi samereh shojaee hossein didehkhaniThe purpose of this research is to Forsight of tourism industry of Golestan province with a scenario approach. This research is in terms of its purpose, in terms of the method, a combination of documentary and scrolling methods and in terms of nature, based on new metho MoreThe purpose of this research is to Forsight of tourism industry of Golestan province with a scenario approach. This research is in terms of its purpose, in terms of the method, a combination of documentary and scrolling methods and in terms of nature, based on new methods of futuristic, analytical, and explorative science. The statistical population of this research includes all theoretical and experimental experts. The non-probabilistic sampling method is using two methods for judging and snowball sampling. The data gathering tool was a questionnaire and an interview with experts. The results of the first stage led to the identification of five factors And 24 variables related to the future of the tourism industry in Golestan province. And in the results of the second stage of the research (the interaction matrix) based on the output of the Mick Mac application were identified 8 effective factors. The eight factors were used in uncertainty questionnaire Based on the twofold "uncertainty" and "importance" Four scenarios were identified and selected from the combination of two axes: "Tourism entrepreneurship" and "Tourism acceptance culture". Finally, there are suggested solutions for each scenario. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - Scenarios of regional order with the withdrawal of American troops from the Middle East (from the perspective of the TAIDA model)
Ebrahim Meraji Hossein Daheshiar Mohammadreza DehshiriProper planning based on future trends to advance national security goals and national interests is one of the most important tasks of strategists in each country.Considering the importance of scenario planning in strategic studies, present paper attempts to use the res MoreProper planning based on future trends to advance national security goals and national interests is one of the most important tasks of strategists in each country.Considering the importance of scenario planning in strategic studies, present paper attempts to use the research methodology of the future research and using the TAIDA model, which focuses on the five approaches of " Tracking, Analyzing, Deciding, and Action", The author seeks to examine possible scenarios for regional order in the event of the withdrawal of US troops from the region. With this statement, the main question of the present study is: What will be the possible scenarios regarding the regional order of the withdrawal of American troops from the region?Scenarios include: - The vacuum of power and the development of the activities of non-governmental forces such as ISIS and the resulting disorder.- The possibility that some countries in the region will prevail and its order will be formed based on their interests.- Formation of regional convergence for security by the countries of the region.Finally, the author will try to express the desired scenario from the point of view of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - Investigation of Rainfall and Air Temperature Changes Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change (Case study: Shahrekord)
Zohre Izadi Ali Heidar Nasrollahi Bizhan Haghighati BorujeniIn this research outputs of the general circulation model HadCM3 under the three climatic change scenarios A1, B1 and A1B are downscaled using LARS-WG model in Shahrekord synoptic weather station and the results were evaluated for the base period (1971-1995) and the fut MoreIn this research outputs of the general circulation model HadCM3 under the three climatic change scenarios A1, B1 and A1B are downscaled using LARS-WG model in Shahrekord synoptic weather station and the results were evaluated for the base period (1971-1995) and the future periods 2011-2030 and 2046-2065 for weather parameters of temperature and precipitation. The results of prediction of the model in future periods indicate that the maximum and minimum temperatures increase for all months and scenarios in the study area compared to the base period. Accordingly, the maximum increase in maximum and minimum monthly temperatures was 3.62 and 3.55 °C, respectively, which was observed under the A1B scenario during 2046-2065. Although, the results of the model for the precipitation were very fluctuating and no specific order was observed. However, rainfall decreased in the vegetative seasons of the plants, especially in spring and April and May. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - Seismic Assessment And Strengthening Of An Existing Steel Bridge In Portugal
Catarina Fernandes Humberto Varum -
Open Access Article
23 - Prediction of aquifer reaction to different hydrological and management scenarios using visual MODFLOW model-Case study of Qazvin plain
N Faghihi F Kave H Babazadeh -
Open Access Article
24 - The Future of Iraq and Its Related Scenarios (2010 - 2020)
Malektaj Khosravi Khosravi Ehsan Khosbani YazdaniSince the Second World War up to now and in contemporary political history, Iraq was one of the most challenging countries in south west Asia (Middle East). Unmistakable, determinant and important role of Iraq in political conditions in geopolitics of the region is one MoreSince the Second World War up to now and in contemporary political history, Iraq was one of the most challenging countries in south west Asia (Middle East). Unmistakable, determinant and important role of Iraq in political conditions in geopolitics of the region is one of the main reasons of these challenges. Like the past, Iraq has the key and determinant role in the current developments of the region. This role will lead to interest and actions conflict among different regional and international powers in this supersensitive region. The main objective of this research is the future of Iraq with respect to political and security conditions of this country. In the context of secondary objectives we can refer to influence of internal, regional and international actors in Iraq’s current developments, predicting territorial future of Iraq and feasibility study of Iraq’s disintegration. Researcher based on the future studies, with respect to the type of current trends and also through the game theory, surveyed the subject. Within analyzing the subject, the role of different actors and alter ant factors in geopolitical scene of Iraq and its impacts on the future and territorial integrity of Iraq is surveyed. Finally after planning probable scenarios about disintegration or non-disintegration of Iraq through the next decade, the future of this country is anticipated as follows: 1- Iraq disintegration scenario 2- Iraq civil war scenario3- democratic and square distribution of power scenario. At last, the position of actors in respect to mentioned scenarios, before and after ISIS outbreak in Iraq as well as determinant factors of actors’ role in Geopolitical scene of Iraq are surveyed. And finally the result of this research is that: disintegration of Iraq through the next decade is not possible. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - Developing Transition Scenarios to the Improved Situation of Science and Technology Policy Structure in Iran
esmaeel kalantari gholamali montazer Seyed Sepehr GhazinooryThe institutional structure of science and technology policy-making has been the focus of scholars in recent decades. Despite the importance of this issue in Iran, the turbulence of the institutional structure has meant the multiplicity of policy makers and their ineffe MoreThe institutional structure of science and technology policy-making has been the focus of scholars in recent decades. Despite the importance of this issue in Iran, the turbulence of the institutional structure has meant the multiplicity of policy makers and their ineffective interactions have caused a great deal of criticism among scholars. In this study, firstly, through the policy documents of science and technology and interviews with 20 experts in this field in Iran, the status of the institutional structure of science and technology policy making in Iran at national level is explained. Then, in order to get out of the current situation and based on the views of experts, two scenarios have been proposed as an improved structure of science and technology policy making in Iran is based on the OECD model in three stages of "formulating national policies and priorities"; "designing programs and policies"; and "policy evaluation". The two main presuppositions in designing these scenarios have been to avoid eliminating policy makers, at least in the short term, and to avoid establishing a new institution in this field. It is worth noting that these scenarios are designed as transitional scenarios from the current situation to the desired situation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - Potato Irrigation Planning based on Moisture depletion using AquaCrop
Mohammad Ali Ansari Aslan Egdernezhad Niazali EbrahimipakIn order to potato irrigation planning based on moisture depletion, calibrated AquaCrop was used. This model was calibrated using data collected from a research station in Chahartakhteh, Shahrekord, in two years. Then, Aquacrop was implemented under multi run in differe MoreIn order to potato irrigation planning based on moisture depletion, calibrated AquaCrop was used. This model was calibrated using data collected from a research station in Chahartakhteh, Shahrekord, in two years. Then, Aquacrop was implemented under multi run in different depletion and irrigation scenarios (DyIx; which y indicates depletion amount and x indicates irrigation amount in mm). Results revealed that there was no water stress under 40 mm depletion and 40 mm irrigation. Crop yield and biomass was so low when depletion was more than 80 mm. In order to apply deficit irrigation, depletion must be between 40 to 70 mm. Based on the results, maximum yield was observed for D40I40 (22.6 ton.ha-1) and minimum yield was observed for D70I20 (10.8 ton.ha-1). In the case of water deficit, D60I40, D60I30, and D65I30 were the best scenarios so that the yields for mentioned scenarios were 16.8, 22.2, and 27 percent less than D40I40 yield. Biomass values for mentioned scenarios were 16.6, 21.8, and 26.7 percent less than D40I40 biomass. Water use efficiency for this scenarios were 0.7 (more), 0.7 (less), and 1.9 (less) than D40I40 one. So, D40I40 and D60I40 were the best scenario in full and deficit irrigation, respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
27 - Measuring the tourism scenarios of Qom city in the horizon of 1410
Mohsen Rezai Arefi marzieh amini seyedeh elham davariThe city of Qom, with the presence of the holy shrine of Hazrat Masoumeh, ranks second in attracting religious tourism in Iran, and this high potential for attracting tourists requires large-scale planning and integrated management. Objectives: The purpose of this rese MoreThe city of Qom, with the presence of the holy shrine of Hazrat Masoumeh, ranks second in attracting religious tourism in Iran, and this high potential for attracting tourists requires large-scale planning and integrated management. Objectives: The purpose of this research is to assess the current state of tourism in Qom from the point of view of tourists, develop scenarios related to the tourism industry of this city, and finally provide strategies to reach the desired scenario. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The method of collecting information is library and field. The sample population includes 385 tourists of Qom city and 38 experts and managers in the field of tourism. Considering the future-oriented nature of the research, the method of analysis of search scenario writing with the GBN (Schwartz) approach and the use of inference model (or matrix) has been chosen. Comparison of the average data of Qom tourists showed that the status of the existing infrastructure of Qom tourism in 6 dimensions, respectively: services, transportation, culture, accommodation, technology and knowledge, information and advertising has higher desirability than It is average. From the data analysis of 38 questionnaires filled by experts in the field of tourism, the critical drivers of this industry were extracted and the combination of the two mainstays is "the type of performance of the urban management complex in equipping infrastructure, amending laws and expanding relations" and "the state of community awareness in the field of tourism". Therefore, the scenario, "Paradise City" as the desired scenario of this research, is a unique urban ideal in which the movements and dynamics of the government and the urban management complex, along with the informed society, will create a bright tourism horizon in the city of Qom. Manuscript profile
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