Introduction: After reviewing several decades of efforts to control, reduce and organize informal settlements, we see that not only the problem of marginalization has not reached an acceptable level, but statistics indicate its prevalence and deepening in the country. M
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Introduction: After reviewing several decades of efforts to control, reduce and organize informal settlements, we see that not only the problem of marginalization has not reached an acceptable level, but statistics indicate its prevalence and deepening in the country. Marginalization is not only considered a social problem, but it is a factor that has cumulative properties and reproduces all kinds of harms and social problems. Getting out of it requires complex considerations. Research aim: This research has identified the factors and variables of the formation and expansion of informal settlements in the city of Maragheh in social, economic, physical and managerial dimensions.Methodology: This research was carried out with a descriptive-survey method and using the future research approach and using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models of this approach. In order to carry out this research, environmental scanning and Delphi techniques were used to extract the primary factors affecting the future trend of informal settlements in Maragheh city. The information of the questionnaires was obtained through 23 organizational experts, academic professors, and the key factors affecting the future status of the informal settlements in Maragheh city were identified by using the information collected in the questionnaires in the Mic Mac software, and using the scenario writing method and Vensim software was used to develop different scenarios to achieve the desired scenarios. Geographical area of research: Informal settlements in the city of Maragheh, located in East Azarbaijan province, were chosen as the geographical scope of the research.Results and discussion: The findings indicate that 48 factors were extracted in 4 different areas (economic, social, managerial and physical). The degree of influence of the factors and the degree of filling of the matrix show that the factors have influenced each other in more than 92%. According to experts, three variables of macroeconomic situation, unemployment rate and government investment have had an effective effect on the formation of informal settlements.Conclusion: According to the situation of the key and influential forces, four scenarios were presented for the future of informal settlement in Maragheh city, and finally the first scenario, which was the optimal scenario, presented the strategies that will be formed in this direction: regional balance policies, urban management and a single and integrated region, redistribution policies, poverty alleviation.
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