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Open Access Article
1 - E-Garch and Modeling of Market Volatility Based on Noise Trading
Abdolmajid Abdolbaghi Siavash Sbour Maryam Bagheri RafiThe presence of noise traders with fanatical attitude in financial markets is considered as a reason for the divergence of price and risk from predicted levels, but on the other hand the absence of noise traders might cause dwindling of market volatility. Generally, tho MoreThe presence of noise traders with fanatical attitude in financial markets is considered as a reason for the divergence of price and risk from predicted levels, but on the other hand the absence of noise traders might cause dwindling of market volatility. Generally, those who execute their trades based on market noise have poor understanding of the validity of receiving information, nevertheless a major part of traders falls into this category. The following study evaluated fluctuation of noise trading, using EGARCH (exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) model for the price index of the Tehran stock exchange market from 2012 to 2016. There was a meaningful relation between the noise and market return, so that an increase in noise trading resulted in market return growth and a decline in noise trading altered fluctuation to a smoother trend. Furthermore, the growth of trade value, turnover and number of trades was related to the rise in noise trading. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Modeling daily price fluctuations, liquidity and the effect of magnetism on the temporary cessation of trading on the Tehran Stock Exchange
saeed gholami seyed yahya abtahi gholamreza askarzadeh hamid khajeh mahmoodThe importance of volatility in financial markets is that sharp price fluctuations in markets lead to a decrease in public confidence and, as a result, reduce the demand for investors in the market, and this will reduce economic growth in the future. Had. The purpose of MoreThe importance of volatility in financial markets is that sharp price fluctuations in markets lead to a decrease in public confidence and, as a result, reduce the demand for investors in the market, and this will reduce economic growth in the future. Had. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of daily price fluctuations, liquidity and the effect of magnetism on the temporary cessation of trading on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this study, to test the relative effectiveness of the symbol stop and the price fluctuation limit, the changes in the mean from the pre-event period to the post-event period have been investigated. 600 trading interruptions and 1149 price fluctuations of 120 selected companies by elimination sampling method during the period 2010-2020 have been investigated. The statistical test of the research performed using SPSS software. The results show that the factor of daily price fluctuations, liquidity and the effect of magnets on the stoppage of trading and the development of research models with this factor and the formation of corresponding modified models, improves the performance of those models in explaining stock stops. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Testing the transmission of price fluctuations of physical assets to selected industries (Application of state space approach and ARDL model)
mahdi shaban habibollah nakhaei ghodratollah talebnia nazanin bashiri maneshThe purpose of this study is to test the transmission of price fluctuations of physical assets to the returns of selected industries including the chemical, pharmaceutical, food, construction and basic metals industries. For this purpose, the data of selected industries MoreThe purpose of this study is to test the transmission of price fluctuations of physical assets to the returns of selected industries including the chemical, pharmaceutical, food, construction and basic metals industries. For this purpose, the data of selected industries return index, dollar rate, Bahar Azadi coin price (representative of gold market), Iranian crude oil price and housing price from mid-December 2008 to March 2019 were prepared with daily frequency and using conditional heterogeneity variance method and state space approach and Kalman filter, conditional standard deviation of returns is considered as a measure of fluctuations. Then, using the ARDL method, how the fluctuations in the price of physical assets are transmitted to the index of returns of selected industries is described. The results show that the chemical industry from the fluctuations of the foreign exchange market, housing and gold, the pharmaceutical industry from the fluctuations of the oil, foreign exchange and housing markets, the construction materials industry from the fluctuations of the foreign exchange market, the food industry from the fluctuations of the oil market and the basic metals industry from the market fluctuations gold has a contagious linear system that provides evidence of information inefficiency in the Tehran Stock Exchange industry. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - The impact of gold prices on global exchange rate fluctuations and ounces
behzad fakari Ameneh Anooshehpour Hossein Hossein AbadiThe impact of gold on other economic and non-economic variables, as well as the impact of gold prices on other financial and investment markets, has made planning and policy-making in this area difficult. One of the common mistakes in the same policy is to consider the MoreThe impact of gold on other economic and non-economic variables, as well as the impact of gold prices on other financial and investment markets, has made planning and policy-making in this area difficult. One of the common mistakes in the same policy is to consider the degree of impact and the impact of the price of gold on other variables. For this purpose, in this study, using Markov switching method and with daily data from August 2013 to August 1400, excluding non-common days, the main variables affecting the price of gold in Rials were investigated. The results of the study showed that there are two regimes in the study period, the point of separation of these two regimes was the withdrawal of the United States from the UN Security Council. The elasticity of the rial price of gold to the exchange rate fluctuations in the second regime compared to the first regime has increased sixfold. The elasticity of the rial price of gold to the dollar price in the second regime compared to the first regime has increased 1.6 times. The pull of gold prices to exchange rate fluctuations has replaced its pull against the exchange rate in the second regime. According to the results of the study, it is suggested that policy makers in the decision for parallel gold markets, pay attention to its different tendencies to different variables in different regimes Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Trading Behavior of Institutional Investors in Volatile Markets
Ali Ebrahimnejad hamidreza ahrabi mahdi heydariWe examine the behavior of institutional investors in response to extreme market fluctuations in the Iranian stock market. Specifically, we examine whether institutional investors engage in herding and follow the market, or are contrarian traders and provide liquidity d MoreWe examine the behavior of institutional investors in response to extreme market fluctuations in the Iranian stock market. Specifically, we examine whether institutional investors engage in herding and follow the market, or are contrarian traders and provide liquidity during market turmoil. We examine the relationship between institutional investors' ownership percentage, stock returns, and volume in severe market fluctuations. We also explore the relationship between institutional ownership and stock returns for different types of institutional investors, including insurance, mutual fund, and investment companies. Using the daily data of listed companies from 2009 to 2019, we find that institutional investors trade against the direction of the market during market turmoil and provide liquidity for stocks in which they are a blockholder or the controlling owner. We find no evidence of herd behavior among institutional investors. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - “Iran Export Engineering &Technical Services” (Identifying Barriers & Offering Suggestions)
H. Nezakati Alizadeh, F. FarzmAccording to the performed research in the field of engineering & technical services export in Iran .And with consideration of existing problems in this section, 4 effective categories has been identified in main activities with their relevant sub-cat MoreAccording to the performed research in the field of engineering & technical services export in Iran .And with consideration of existing problems in this section, 4 effective categories has been identified in main activities with their relevant sub-categories including: Bank activities; Financing methods; Presenting exchange facilities; Exchange bank guarantee issuing conditions; Establishing international bank relationships; Insurance coverage, Companies capabilities, Machineries & equipments conditions, specialized humans resources abilities; attendance of Iranian consultant companies in target countries; Marketing techniques & approaches used by Iranian exporters; Economic environment (exchange); Exchange rate fluctuation, Internal inflation rate, Government activities; political supports by Government; Cooperation & expediting the administrative affairs by relevant organizations; Governmental rules & regulation stability; Export promotions & awards. And each subcategory has been specified on the basis of testing according to priority. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Exchange rate fluctuations and reaction Tehran Stock Exchange
mohammad osoolian mohammad hassannezhad alireza shokrolahnia roshanAbstract: In this study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on abnormal returns of companies listed on the Stock Exchange were studied. In this study, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model due to its ability to explain this connection was used for short-term and l MoreAbstract: In this study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on abnormal returns of companies listed on the Stock Exchange were studied. In this study, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model due to its ability to explain this connection was used for short-term and long-term. To evaluate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations , the banks' legal deposit at the central bank, GDP, inflation, current account and capital account on the stock market according to the designated filters, exporting companies that gained the research conditions, were determined. In this study, the company's export price index was calculated at the end of each quarter and abnormal returns were calculated for the group of companies. After calculating abnormal returns of firms, independent and control variables in the ARDL model imported and the effects of the explanatory variables investigation revealed abnormal returns. The results show that the exchange rate fluctuations variable has a positive and significant impact on exporting companies are abnormal returns. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - Investigating the moderating role of institutional investors ownership percentage on the relationship between investors' emotional tendencies, stock returns and stock price fluctuations
Davoud Hemmati ALI RAMEZANI Akram ShayanfarThe purpose of the study is to investigate the moderating role of institutional investors 'ownership percentage on the relationship between investors' emotional tendencies, stock returns and fluctuations in stock prices. The spatial domain of this research is the compan MoreThe purpose of the study is to investigate the moderating role of institutional investors 'ownership percentage on the relationship between investors' emotional tendencies, stock returns and fluctuations in stock prices. The spatial domain of this research is the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange and the realm of time between 2009 and 1394. In this research, the emotional tendencies of independent variable investors, institutional investors, moderating variables and stock returns and fluctuating stock prices were considered as dependent variables. , The research method is applied in terms of its purpose, in terms of its nature as descriptive research, and also in the method of research is correlated in the research field. Based on the systematic elimination method, 107 companies were selected as the statistical sample. The results of the research showed that there is a significant and positive relationship between the emotional tendencies of investors and the return on shares of the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. There is a meaningful and positive correlation between the emotional tendencies of investors and the fluctuation of stock prices of the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. Institutional investors have an impact on the relationship between investors' emotional tendencies and the return on shares of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. Institutional investors have an impact on the relationship between investors' emotional tendencies and fluctuations in stock prices of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Integrated Optimal Risk-Based Liquidity Management Model Design in Specialized Holdings of Social Security Investment Corporation (SHASTA)
Gholamreza Zomorodian Mohammad Reza Rostami Robabeh BahramianThe purpose of the present research is to design a seamless optimized risk-based liquidity management model. The statistical population of this research is in the special holdings of social security investment company (SHASTA), Due to the limited statistical population, MoreThe purpose of the present research is to design a seamless optimized risk-based liquidity management model. The statistical population of this research is in the special holdings of social security investment company (SHASTA), Due to the limited statistical population, the total statistical society including the company holdings in the period 1391-1396 was considered as an example. The method of collecting information is library and field. Data analysis was performed using the multivariate regression model presented in the study using Eviews software. The results of the hypothesis test showed that there is a significant relationship between risk sensitivity, price fluctuations, expected returns fluctuations, liquidity risk, and liquidity risk with liquidity management. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Explain the shocks and fluctuations of the foreign exchange market and how to transfer these shocks to other markets
soqra razi kazemi Fraydoon Rahnamay Roodposhti gholamreza zomorodian Ebrahim ChiraniThe transmission of financial crises between different markets in an economy indicates the existence of channels of transmission of this crisis. Today, parallel currency markets are closely related to other markets such as gold, coins, stocks and oil. Channels that tran MoreThe transmission of financial crises between different markets in an economy indicates the existence of channels of transmission of this crisis. Today, parallel currency markets are closely related to other markets such as gold, coins, stocks and oil. Channels that transmit shocks and fluctuations of the foreign exchange market to other markets can include information, macroeconomic variables, investment behaviors, and so on. In this study, using daily data from 2009 to 2017, the explanation of overflow fluctuations and shocks in the foreign exchange market and how to transfer these shocks to other markets has been examined. The results indicate the existence of fluctuations overflow as well as structural fractures due to the presence of this overflow. The research model and determination of interruptions is based on the VAR model. Yields and fluctuations as well as the presence of the Arch effect in the model are determined based on the VAR model. The MV-GARCH model is used to determine the returns in the foreign exchange market. Fluctuations and shocks of the foreign exchange market and its impact on other markets as well as future prices in different markets are determined based on the VAR model. The results of this study indicate the effect of shock in the foreign exchange market on the trend of future prices in this market as well as the impact on other markets. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - The Impact of Ownership Structure and Strategy Change on Stock Price Fluctuations with Emphasis on the Modulatory Effectiveness of Investment Information and Investment Returns
Mohamad ali Sadeghi lafmejani javad ramezaniThis study aimed to explain the effect of adjusting information productivity and return on investment on ownership structure and strategy change with stock price volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange.In this study, the hypotheses were tested using multivariate linear regr MoreThis study aimed to explain the effect of adjusting information productivity and return on investment on ownership structure and strategy change with stock price volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange.In this study, the hypotheses were tested using multivariate linear regression model and econometric models.The results indicate that optimization of the property structure and the additional returns resulting from the use of acceleration and reversal strategies will have a positive and direct impact on stock price fluctuations. Increasing information efficiency (total return on a daily basis) will reduce variables related to ownership structure and stock price fluctuations, whereas the type of investment will not affect the relationship. Also, despite the unexpected effect that the surplus of strategy change will have on stock price fluctuations, information efficiency and investment returns will not be affected by this relationship. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Explaining the model of investors' emotional biases affecting stock price fluctuations in Tehran Stock Exchange By relying on the biases of Endowment, self-control, Optimism and Cognitive Dissonance
mahdi abbasi asl Mohammad Reza Rostami mehrzad minoiiOne of the most vital research programs of financial knowledge today, which is at the forefront of rejecting the theory of efficient markets, is financial behavior theory, which is the cause of joint efforts between financial sciences and social sciences and has deepene MoreOne of the most vital research programs of financial knowledge today, which is at the forefront of rejecting the theory of efficient markets, is financial behavior theory, which is the cause of joint efforts between financial sciences and social sciences and has deepened our knowledge of financial markets. Today's financial topics, which we are going to explain, describe and compare, are called financial behavior, which in simple terms is a pattern of thinking in which markets use patterns consisting of social sciences, psychology, finance and several other disciplines. They are studied, and in other words, economic agents are not rational in behavioral patterns contrary to neoclassical theories, but are normal either because of their preferences or because of cognitive biases. The purpose of this study is to design and explain a model for identifying behavioral factors affecting stock price fluctuations in the Tehran Stock Exchange. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of working method is a type of survey research. The data of this research were analyzed using SmartPLS software. The results of the study showed that the emotional bias of short-sightedness, the emotional bias of optimism and the emotional bias of adaptation affect the fluctuations of stock prices of companies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Lending fluctuations in modeling monetary policy relationships, capital structure and banks' risk-taking
ایوب تابانی حسین بدیعی Saeed Moradpour محمد حسین رنجبرMonetary policy can affect the position of banks, including their risk-taking. In implementing monetary policy, the central bank can directly use its regulatory power or indirectly use its influence on money market conditions as a powerful money issuer. Therefore, the p MoreMonetary policy can affect the position of banks, including their risk-taking. In implementing monetary policy, the central bank can directly use its regulatory power or indirectly use its influence on money market conditions as a powerful money issuer. Therefore, the purpose of this study is lending fluctuations in modeling the relationship between monetary policy, capital structure and banks' risk-taking. In this study, the financial information of 21 banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1391 to 1397 was used. Sampling was performed by systematic removal method. The required data were collected from the financial statements of companies, Rahavard Novin Tadbir Pardaz software and also from the site belonging to the Stock Exchange Organization and the sites www.rdis.ir and www.irbourse.com as well as the site of the Central Bank. . Excel software has been used to classify the data. Also, after classifying the research data, Eviews10 software has been used to process the information and test the research hypotheses. The statistical method used in this study was correlational and multivariate regression model was used to calculate the independent and dependent variables and also to test the hypotheses. The results of testing the research hypotheses indicate that there is a significant relationship between monetary policy, bank lending fluctuations, capital structure and banks' risk-taking. In the study of control variables, the determination of the ratio of assets to equity of banks has a significant relationship with fluctuations in bank lending. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - The Effect of Uncertainty of Macroeconomic Indices on Tehran Stock Exchange Returns with the Approach of Randomized Fluctuations Models with Time Variations
Samaneh Tarighi Taghi Torabi Farhad Ghaffari Abbas MemarnezhadOne of the most important tasks of the financial economy is modeling and forecasting of the price volatility of risky assets. For analysts and policymakers, price volatility is a key variable that helps to understand market fluctuations. Therefore, the analysts need to MoreOne of the most important tasks of the financial economy is modeling and forecasting of the price volatility of risky assets. For analysts and policymakers, price volatility is a key variable that helps to understand market fluctuations. Therefore, the analysts need to be able to predict the correctness of price volatility as an essential input for tasks such as risk management, portfolio assignment, value at risk and transaction option pricing and future contracts. Accordingly, in the present research, return on stocks of Tehran Stock Exchange has been dealt with using PLS and TVP-SV models and its comparison with OLS method in MATLAB and XLSTAT software from March 2003 till August 2013 (monthly) using true variables (industrial output, real estate investment in housing, economic growth, government spending share in GDP and Non-oil exports growth rate) and monetary variables (inflation, money supply, exchange rate, oil price and domestic price of gold). Based on PLS model, the result was that the variables of economic growth and oil price have more influence of return of Tehran Stock Exchange in comparison with other variables. Then, we entered the variables of economic growth and oil price in TVP-SV model. Based on the results, TVP-SV model has more efficiency in comparison with OLS model. Based on the results of TVP-SV model after the first interruption of stock returns, the economic growth has the highest effect on stock returns. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Application of Taylor's Rule in Iran Economy and Policies influence from Real Estate Market
Alireza Erfani Smaeil ShamsiyanThe central bank's behavior towards its four targets is subject that has occupied the minds of many economists. This research tries to find rules governing the monetary policy makers. Then two main goals of stable inflation and growth rate of national products selected. MoreThe central bank's behavior towards its four targets is subject that has occupied the minds of many economists. This research tries to find rules governing the monetary policy makers. Then two main goals of stable inflation and growth rate of national products selected. In the other hands, according to significance of real estate market fluctuations controlling, Central Bank has a great task. Then it has an active role and real estate price growth comes in the model similar Taylor Rule model. Resulting with quarters data 1371:1-1391:4 show that growth rate of national products and it's fluctuations are many important and their coefficients are significant but the others are not. Central Bank can predict those fluctuations and react them, but it's reaction for after two periods is pro-cyclic. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - Threshold effects of shadow economy on the relationship between financial depth, banking policies and macroeconomic fluctuations with socio-economic development
seyed nourdin hodaei Marjan Damankeshideh Manijeh Hadinejad شهریار نصابیانIn this study, the threshold effects of the shadow economy on the relationship between financial depth, banking policies and macroeconomic fluctuations with socio-economic development during the time period of 1401-1370 and the application of the soft transfer threshold MoreIn this study, the threshold effects of the shadow economy on the relationship between financial depth, banking policies and macroeconomic fluctuations with socio-economic development during the time period of 1401-1370 and the application of the soft transfer threshold approach (STAR) were investigated. The results of the nonlinear part of the model show a positive relationship between the financial depth variable and the economic development index. Shadow economy variables, exchange rate fluctuations, inflation, government spending, liquidity growth and nominal interest rate have a negative relationship with the socio-economic development index. so that the mentioned variables lead to reduction in order; 95%, 95%, 50%, 45%, 7% and 40% of economic development. The main channel of influencing the financial depth is done by increasing the efficiency of investment and monetary policies. Therefore, the way of financial market liberalization, the weakness of financial system management and the lack of formation of coherent financial markets and the benefit of regulations in the country can be seen as the reasons for reducing the efficiency of investment through the non-optimal allocation of resources in the country. As a result, more attention and effort should be done in the country to develop and make financial markets more efficient and as a result allocate resources more efficiently and increase investment efficiency. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - Investigating the Impact of Social Responsibility and Liquidity Risk of Company Stocks on Fluctuations in Stock Returns in Companies Listed on Tehran Stock Exchange
seyed ali hosseini sara razaniCorporate social responsibility is a key factor in the survival of any organization. Companies see social responsibility as a kind of business strategy, which increases their credibility in competitive markets and also increases their market share. . Liquidity risk and MoreCorporate social responsibility is a key factor in the survival of any organization. Companies see social responsibility as a kind of business strategy, which increases their credibility in competitive markets and also increases their market share. . Liquidity risk and its management method has become one of the most important issues in organizations. The potential effects that this branch of risk can have on the performance of companies are sometimes so wide that they lead to the bankruptcy of these units. The present study investigates the relationship between corporate social responsibility, liquidity risk and stock return fluctuations of the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2015 to 2019. Sampling was performed using a systematic elimination method and The selected sample includes 140 companies. The model used in the research follows the study of Bechti et al. (2015) The results show that the liquidity risk variable has a positive and significant effect on stock return fluctuations. This means that with increasing liquidity risk, the amount of stock return fluctuations also increases. The effect of social responsibility variable on stock return fluctuations is negative and significant. Annual sales growth, company size and fixed assets have a negative and significant effect on stock return fluctuations. According to the results of both research hypotheses, the 95% confidence level is confirmed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - The Model of Stock Return Fluctuations and Investors Involved in the Cognitive Biases of Ambiguity Avoidance, Familiarity, Self-documentation, and Procrastination
mahdi abbasi asl Mohammad Reza Rostami mehrzad minoiiContrary to the popular belief in modern financial theory that states decision makers behave completely rationally to maximize their profits, studies conducted in the field of behavioral finance show that the human decision-making process is not completely rational and MoreContrary to the popular belief in modern financial theory that states decision makers behave completely rationally to maximize their profits, studies conducted in the field of behavioral finance show that the human decision-making process is not completely rational and is not based on it. Most of the time, the financial-behavioral factors of the decision-making process examine the perceptions of investors and their reactions to different conditions of the financial market, and emphasize the influence of the personality, culture and judgment of investors based on investment decisions. Recognizing behavioral biases makes investors more aware of their decision-making process, and if faced with biases, they can react well and avoid deviations in decision-making. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to design a model of stock return fluctuations and investors affected by cognitive biases. The statistical population of this research is experts, managers, consultants and experts in financial affairs and the statistical sample includes 160 people.This research is practical in terms of purpose, and in terms of working methods, it is a type of survey research. The study period is in 2022 AD. For sampling, purposeful and snowball sampling methods were used, and with 30 semi-structured interviews with experts, the research reached theoretical saturation. The results obtained from the research showed that cognitive bias, ambiguity avoidance, familiarity, self-documentation, and tardiness have an effect on the volatility of companies' stock returns. The path coefficients (beta) for each bias have been calculated separately, which determines its effect on stock return fluctuations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - Seasonal population fluctuations of the cabbage white butterfly, Pierisrapaein cauliflower fields of the South of Tehran
Gholamhosein Hasanshahi Zahra Dousti Fatemeh Jahan Alireza Askarianzadeh Jaber Karimi Habib AbbasipurThe cabbage white butterfly, Pierisrapae (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lep.: Pieridae) is one of the most important pests of Cruciferous or Brassicaceaefamily plants in regions of Shahriar, Kahrizak and Sahr’e Ray and every year its damage can be seen on the leaves of these p MoreThe cabbage white butterfly, Pierisrapae (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lep.: Pieridae) is one of the most important pests of Cruciferous or Brassicaceaefamily plants in regions of Shahriar, Kahrizak and Sahr’e Ray and every year its damage can be seen on the leaves of these plants. In order to study the seasonal population fluctuation of P. rapae, One hectare cauliflower field in the middle of a large field was randomly selected in five regions of cauliflower fields in southof Tehran were chosen and sampled every 10 days. Each plant was presumed as a sampling unit and sample size was determined as 20 host plants and all eggs, larvae and pupa on the host plant were recorded. Results of this study showed that Jahanabad and Shahed fields had the highest egg density (18.91±5.60) and the lowest egg density (16.53±4.04) was seen in the Playin field during season. In the Shahed field, highest egg density occurred in June 19 and the lowest egg density was seen on October 25. In the Playin field, the highest and lowest egg density was seen on September 29 and June 19, respectively. In the Jahanabad field the highest (2.99±0.66) and lowest (0.41±0.10) larval density was occurred during the season among different regions. Highest density was observed in the Jahanabad field during the harvest time on October 25 and the lowest larval density was seen on June 19. The highest and lowest larval density was seen in the field of Playin on 25rd October and 19th June, respectively. Kahrizak (0.87±0.16) and Playin (0.19±0.05) fields had the highest and lowest pupal density in different regions during the season. In the field of Kahrizak, highest pupal density was occurred on 25rd October and in the playin field, the lowest pupal density was seen on 19th June. In the Playin field, highest density of pupae was occurred on 14th October and 25rd October and the lowest density of pupae was observed on 19th June and 2th July, respectively. The results showed that number of larval and pupal stages based on units density, between all experimental regions and Shahed university station had not significant difference. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - Effect of two cotton cultivars on population fluctuations of spider mites (Acari : Tetranychidae)
Seyed Hamid Reza Forghani Hadi Ostovan Javad Shaterian Nazila HonarparvarCotton plant, Gossypium hirsutum L., is one of the most economic crop around the world and in GonbadKavous (located in North of Iran) is an important cotton cropping region. The spider mites (Tetranychus spp., Acari: Tetranychidae) are the most damaging pests on the fie MoreCotton plant, Gossypium hirsutum L., is one of the most economic crop around the world and in GonbadKavous (located in North of Iran) is an important cotton cropping region. The spider mites (Tetranychus spp., Acari: Tetranychidae) are the most damaging pests on the field crops. Use of resistant cultivar is one of the foremost accepted chemical-free techniques for controlling this pest. A two year study was conducted to evaluate resistance of two most-cultivated cultivars, sahel and siokra, against spider mites. The results showed that there was a significant difference in population of spider mites, so that the population on Sahel was more than Siokra for two years studied. The separate population figures for each year recorded 10.3 ± 0.6 eggs and 24.2 ± 1.3 mites on Sahel, 7.4 ± 0.4 eggs and 15.9 ± 0.9 mites on Siokra in first year whereas it was 22.6 ± 2.1 eggs and 35.2 ± 2.6 mites and also 8.6 ± 0.5 eggs and 16.9 ± 1.1 mites in second year for them. Mite’s populations increased from mid-season to the end of growing period. The results showed that effects of ambient temperatures on egg populations and number of active stages of mites was more favorable on Sahel compared with Siokra. Population assessment of mites on these two cultivars can be used in management of the pest. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - Multilevel Convergence, Cluster Fluctuations, Price Bubbles and Fractal Structure; an Experimental Investigation by Foundation Factor Simulation
Farzin Axon Seyed Hossein Nasl Mousavi Abbas Ali Pour AghajanAbstract Cluster fluctuations and fractal structures are the two important features of space-time correlation in complex financial systems. However, the microscopic mechanism of creating and expanding these two features in financial markets remains challenging. In the p MoreAbstract Cluster fluctuations and fractal structures are the two important features of space-time correlation in complex financial systems. However, the microscopic mechanism of creating and expanding these two features in financial markets remains challenging. In the present study, using factor-based model design and considering a new interactive mechanism called multilevel convergence, the process of forming cluster fluctuations according to the fractal structure of financial markets is investigated. Virtual agents' trade in different groups according to market performance and their mass behavior is measured at three levels of stock, segment and market. The results, in addition to providing new insights into the space-time correlations of financial markets, show that multilevel convergence is one of the microscopic mechanisms of microstructure of such markets. In other words, multilevel collective behavior is an important factor in the occurrence of cluster fluctuations, price bubbles and market fractals and therefore should be considered in interpreting the concept of risk and defining risk management strategies from this perspective. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - A mathematical model to predict corporate bankruptcy using financial, managerial and economic variables And compare it with other models
Jafar Zarin Babak Jamshidinavid Mehrdad Ghanbari Afshin Baghfalaki -
Open Access Article
23 - Biology of potato tuber moth, Phthorimea operculella Zeller (Lep.: Gelechidae), on two potato cultivars
M. Shahabi A. RajabpourPotato tuber moth, Phthorimea operculella, is one of the most important pests of potato in Iran. Biology of the pest on two commercial potato cultivars, Sante and Arinda, was studied in Andimeshk, north of Khuzestan province, Iran. Samplings were weekly performed from t MorePotato tuber moth, Phthorimea operculella, is one of the most important pests of potato in Iran. Biology of the pest on two commercial potato cultivars, Sante and Arinda, was studied in Andimeshk, north of Khuzestan province, Iran. Samplings were weekly performed from two separate fields cultivated by two cultivars during two agricultural seasons (2013-2015). Adults and immatures monitoring were done by using sex pheromone trap and direct count respectively. Results showed that adults occurred with two months difference in the first and second agricultural seasons which is related to different means temperature in the two studied seasons. Significant correlation was observed between adult densities and weekly means temperature. First adults appeared on both cultivars in early February and December in the first and second agricultural seasons and peaked at the end of March, respectively. The peaks of egg number were observed at The end of March for the first and second agricultural seasons, respectively. First larvae were observed in early and mid of March in the first and second years. Larvae peaked at The end of March and mid of April for the first and second years, respectively. No considerable difference was observed among occurrence, peak and activity time of the developmental stages of potato tuberworm on The two tested cultivars. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - Seasonal fluctuations of percent parasitism of the leaf miner Agromyza sp. (Dip., Agromyzidae) on chickpea
S. Changizi R. Vafaei Shoushtari S. S. Modares Najafabadi A. A. ZamanyThe leaf miner Agromyza sp. is one of the most important pests of chickpea. Seasonal fluctuation of percent parasitism of the pest was investigated on chickpea in Khomeyn,Iran in 2009. Samples were taken on two days a week and number of larvae and parasitized larvae per MoreThe leaf miner Agromyza sp. is one of the most important pests of chickpea. Seasonal fluctuation of percent parasitism of the pest was investigated on chickpea in Khomeyn,Iran in 2009. Samples were taken on two days a week and number of larvae and parasitized larvae per plant were counted parasitism laboratory. The parasitoids emerged from larvae were identified. The highest percent was 18.8 on June. 29 In this experiment the parasitoids activity and the peak of leaf miners larvae population were in the same time in khomeyn region. In probability level 0.05, the regression between number of leaf miners larvae and % parasitism was positive and significant (R2=0.6). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - The seasonal population fluctuations of pomegranate fruit moth, Ectomyelois ceratoniae Zeller and quince moth, Euzophera bigella Zeller in pomegranate orchards
N. Naserian H. Farazmand R. Vafaei Shoushtari A. Avand-Faghih N. AzadbakhtThe pomegranate fruit moth, Ectomyelois ceratoniae Zeller, and quince moth, Euzophera bigella Zeller, are the major frugivorous pest. They cause qualitative and quantitative losses of pomegranate fruit. Sexual pheromone traps may provide a real estimation of adult emerg MoreThe pomegranate fruit moth, Ectomyelois ceratoniae Zeller, and quince moth, Euzophera bigella Zeller, are the major frugivorous pest. They cause qualitative and quantitative losses of pomegranate fruit. Sexual pheromone traps may provide a real estimation of adult emergence and flight activity periods, emigration and immigration of such pests. To fulfill such a purpose, an experiment was performed to observe the population fluctuation of E. ceratoniae and E. bigella using synthetic pheromone traps in pomegranate orchards of Tang-e-Siab Koohdasht (Lorestan, Iran), in 2011. Adults of E. ceratoniae and E. bigella appeared in late April and May, respectively, and their flights continued until mid November. These pests populations showed four and three flight peaks during the growth season, respectively. The quince moth's population was higher than on pomegranate fruit moth's population, while the peak of the moth flight was between late July to early August. So in the pomegranate orchards of Lorestan region, in addition to pomegranate fruit moth, quince moth is one of the important fruit pests. The quince moth appears a month later in comparison to pomegranate fruit moth and both are active until the end of the season. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - The population fluctuations of Euzophera bigella (Zeller) and Cydia pomonella (L.) at quince orchards
P. Kermani H. Farazmand J. Karimzadeh A. Avand-FaghihThe lepidopterans Euzophera bigella (Zeller) (Pyralidae) and Cydia pomonella (L.) (Tortricidae) are the most important pests of quince trees in Iran, as they cause the qualitative and quantitative losses on quince fruits. The present study was performed to monitor the p MoreThe lepidopterans Euzophera bigella (Zeller) (Pyralidae) and Cydia pomonella (L.) (Tortricidae) are the most important pests of quince trees in Iran, as they cause the qualitative and quantitative losses on quince fruits. The present study was performed to monitor the population fluctuations of E. bigella and L. pomonella using synthetic pheromone traps at quince orchards in Falavarjan (Isfahan, Iran). In addition, the influence of climatic factors on population fluctuations was studied. It was found that E. bigella adults appeared in early March, showing four population peaks during growth season. The adults of L. pomonella were, however, showed up in middle March with five seasonal population peaks. The populations of male E. bigella were positively correlated with relative humidity, weekly rainfall (up to 3.5 mm), weekly means of minimum and maximum relative humidity and temperature (higher than 25 °C). In addition, when rainfall was 1.2 mm, no significant effects of weekly means of minimum and maximum relative humidity and temperature were observed on E. bigella densities. The population densities of male E. bigella also showed a significant positive correlation (r = 0.58) with relative humidity. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
27 - Seasonal population fluctuations of Mediterranean pine bark beetle, Orthotomicus erosus (Wollaston) (Coleoptera:Curculionidae:Scolytinae), in the Tehran Chitgar forest park
T. Arkani H. Ostovan H. Farazmand M. GheybiOne of the main problems of pine trees in the Chitgar park located in Tehran, Iran, is pine bark beetles, which not only cause direct harms to these trees but also is vector of some viral and bacterial pathogens. To study the seasonal population fluctuations of th MoreOne of the main problems of pine trees in the Chitgar park located in Tehran, Iran, is pine bark beetles, which not only cause direct harms to these trees but also is vector of some viral and bacterial pathogens. To study the seasonal population fluctuations of the pest, the sampling process of adults from pine barks was performed in different regions of the park in 2015 to 2017. Twelve infected centers in the park were selected and four cross trap were installed in each center. The mass capturing pheromone of Orthotomicus erosus and pine kairomone dispensers were used in each trap. The distance between traps was about 50 meters. According to the observed data, the emergence of adult beetles was started in early April and continued until mid-December. The average daily capture per trap was four beetles. From mid-December onwards, no beetles were caught in the traps. Mediteranean pine bark beetle had at least six flight peaks in the area of study. The most trapping were observed in 8 June, 28 June, 27 July, 16 August, 5 September and 25 September respectively. The The highest number of trap catches was registered in September, July, August, June, September and October, with 9.2, 7.7, 7.2, 5.7, 2.4 and 1.6 beetles per trap respectively. Also, the mean average of total capture during spring, summer, autumn and winter were 401, 1159,114 and zero beetles per trap; so, the most activity of the pest was observed in summer, spring and autumn respectively The highest number of beetle was in the north and the least was captured in the south of the park. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
28 - Effects assessment of the climate Change on water resources of Dararood Basin
Ebrahim FataeiThe global climate is changing, and impacts of climate change are being observed across the world. In recent years, particularly the effects of climate changes on the Earth’s water resources are very considerable. Dararood Basin is one of the subbasin of Aras rive MoreThe global climate is changing, and impacts of climate change are being observed across the world. In recent years, particularly the effects of climate changes on the Earth’s water resources are very considerable. Dararood Basin is one of the subbasin of Aras river catchment. Considering Water supply, Dararood river plays an important role in the study area. Unfortunately, in recent years the amount of water in this area has decreased. Investigating trend in climate and hydrological variables can help to identify the possible climatic changes and fluctuations. In order to identify trend in hydro-meteorological time series data among the nonparametric test, Mann-Kendall was used wildly. The purpose of this study is investigating fluctuations and trends in river flow under potential impact of climate fluctuations using the Mann-Kendall test, during 20 years (1994-2013). For this purpose climate data of four stations including Ahar, Moshiran, Meshginshahr and Parsabad along with 7 hydrometric station data (Cassin, Orang, Oshdalaq, Arbabkandi, Dostbyloo, Boran and mashiran) were used. The results showed that the annual flow of all stations have decreasing trend during the study period. Also the results of this study showed no significant correlation between climatic fluctuations and annual river flow based on the annual average during the study period Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
29 - Recognizing the Impact of Fluctuations in Foreign Exchange Rates and Interest Rates on the Index of Economic Freedom in Iran
marjan meymandi somayeh shokravi Akbar Bagheri -
Open Access Article
30 - The Impact of Economic Fluctuations on the Political Stability of Iran
khosro Mehralian Beytollah Divsalar Fakhrollah MolaiIn this article, with a sociological approach, the political-security consequences of the security model of the balance of power on creating political instability in the countries of the region at both domestic and foreign levels are examined. Also, the principles of th MoreIn this article, with a sociological approach, the political-security consequences of the security model of the balance of power on creating political instability in the countries of the region at both domestic and foreign levels are examined. Also, the principles of the impact of economic fluctuations on instability and the effects of the intensity and weakness of economic fluctuations should be investigated. The question that arises is to what extent do economic fluctuations affect Iran's political instability? Economic fluctuations seem to affect instability and cause a crisis in Iran. The extent and intensity of economic fluctuations can have different effects on the instability of the country. Of course, external threats and pressure, and internal vulnerabilities are two important factors that were identified in the emergence of political instability in the country. The research is conducted by using analytical method. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
31 - Contract adjustment due to economic fluctuations
Mohammad Reza Hafezi GHahestani Abbas Moghaddari Aimiri Abdol hamid MortazaviThe principle of the necessity of contracts (Pacta Sunt Servanda) has been considered and respected by lawyers in all legal systems and national laws of countries. As contracts and agreements indicate, legal and economic relations between individuals of the contract and MoreThe principle of the necessity of contracts (Pacta Sunt Servanda) has been considered and respected by lawyers in all legal systems and national laws of countries. As contracts and agreements indicate, legal and economic relations between individuals of the contract and as the main purpose of the contract is to create rights and obligations for the parties to the contract. sometimes some factors such as inflation, recession, sanctions and in general, economic fluctuations beyond the will of the parties, affect these contracts and cause differences between the parties. The occurrence of these events leads to a fundamental change in the circumstances and conditions of the contracts which makes the implementation of the contract for the obligor with excessive difficulty or unconventional losses. In such a situation, it is necessary to modify the contracts. Based on this need and by considering the increasing expansion of trade exchanges and concluding continuous contracts and inevitable economic developments, the present article investigates the impact of economic fluctuations on these contracts and the possibility of compensating for the imbalance created by resorting to contract modification. Based on the result of the study, it can be concluded that there is a modification of potential contract, but it is impossible by the principles of Feqh due to the proposed shortcomings. However, based on Article 3 of the Code of Civil Procedure and by using legal principles relying on the principle of interpretation of the will of the parties, the principle of good faith and fairness, and judicial procedure; it is possible for the courts to modify and revise the contract. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
32 - The Effects of Rapid Caspian Sea-Level Fluctuations on the Miankaleh Barrier Coasts
mohammad reza sarvati reza mansori manizheh ghohrodi taliThe goal of this study was to study the geomorphologic response- type models of the coastline of Miankaleh Barrier to the rapid fluctuations of the Caspian Sea. In this regard, Landsat satellite imageries (the sensor: 4, 5, 7 and 8 series), historical maps, topography m MoreThe goal of this study was to study the geomorphologic response- type models of the coastline of Miankaleh Barrier to the rapid fluctuations of the Caspian Sea. In this regard, Landsat satellite imageries (the sensor: 4, 5, 7 and 8 series), historical maps, topography maps and multiple field works have been used. Based on quantitative documentation of historical changes in shoreline position in response to natural and human variables, eight geomorphic response-types were identified for classifying barrier coasts: (1) lateral movement, (2) advance, (3) dynamic equilibrium, (4) retreat, (5) in-place narrowing, (6) landward rollover, (7) breakup, and (8) rotational instability. Long-term (decades to centuries) monitoring of shoreline position over a spatial scale of 10 to 100 km provides a scientific basis for documenting process-response relationships that shape regional coastal morphodynamics. The results show that there are the six morphological-type models in the Miankaleh barrier region based on the eight geomorphologic-type models of McBride et al, 1995; such as lateral movement, advance, retreat, in-place narrowing, breakup and rotational instability. The results indicate that the advance and retreat morphological-type models are formed in the region during the rise and fall sea levels, respectively. In-place narrowing and breakup morphological-type models appear simultaneously with the rise in sea level, and the rotational instability model also appears when the sea level is reduced in the region. The lateral movement type model has also been developed during the sea level rise and fall periods. Also, the results show that the sea level during the period of 1214-1396 has experienced six Progradation-Retrogradation stages. The assessment of the satellite imageries and statistical data on sea level fluctuations indicate that the sea level has fallen back to 1374 and has dropped by about 1.5 meters. The rate of recession and the reduction of the level of surface between 1374 until 1396 were estimated at 6.8 cm per year. Despite the fact that on a large scale, the increase in the relative sea level water along the shore of the Miankaleh barrier is one of the most important factors controlling the occurrence of various geomorphic reactions; however, the sediment supply also has a significant impact on reactions shoreline. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
33 - The Effect of OPEC Statements on Fluctuations in Crude Oil Prices
Fariba Shahbodaghlou Aliasghar Esmaeilnia gatabi azadeh mehrabian ROYA SEIFIPOUR The purpose of this article is to examine the effect of OPEC statements (whether increasing, decreasing or not changing supply) on oil price fluctuations in crude oil markets. For this purpose, conditional heterogeneity and variable control variance models have b More The purpose of this article is to examine the effect of OPEC statements (whether increasing, decreasing or not changing supply) on oil price fluctuations in crude oil markets. For this purpose, conditional heterogeneity and variable control variance models have been used to investigate the effect of statements on Brent and WTI crude oil price fluctuations during the period 1987-2019 based on the event analysis approach. The findings show that OPEC statements have a significant effect on the turmoil in the oil market, and the type of statements varies on crude oil market fluctuations, and this effect has diminished over time. Based on the results, members' solidarity in the field of planning and coordinated implementation of decisions for maximum impact on the crude oil market is proposed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
34 - Use of Black Market premium (BMP) to Investigate the Changes of Exchange Rate on the Added-value of Industry
hamidreza izadi maryam izadiInstability of exchange actual rate increases the risk and uncertainty, decrease of investment, shortening of investment horizon, instability of financial markets, reduction of foreign trade, allocation of the resources to the non-productive activities, reduction of ind MoreInstability of exchange actual rate increases the risk and uncertainty, decrease of investment, shortening of investment horizon, instability of financial markets, reduction of foreign trade, allocation of the resources to the non-productive activities, reduction of industry added value and the growth of production rate and economy. By using Black Market Premium, this paper tries to evaluate the exchange rate fluctuations and its deviations during 1971-2010 due to the importance of the exchange rate variations, and then survey the negative effects of these fluctuations and deviations on the surplus value of industry. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
35 - Evaluation of the Dynamic Relationship between Foreign Exchange Market, Stock Market and the Housing Market in Iran Using a Multivariate GARCH Model
Oranus Parivar Mahbobeh hassaniThis paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between housing market, stock market’s general index and real effective exchange rate of Iran using VAR and MGARCH models. For this purpose, monthly data of ti MoreThis paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between housing market, stock market’s general index and real effective exchange rate of Iran using VAR and MGARCH models. For this purpose, monthly data of time period between Farvardin 1383 till Ordibehesht 1395 (Persian calendar) have been used. Based on the obtained results, there is no significant effect of other markets’ returns on housing market returns, while there is a significant and negative effect of stock market and housing market returns on foreign exchange market returns. In addition, in this study, the effect of simultaneous fluctuations of the housing market, foreign exchange and stock markets have also been evaluated. The results show that each market is not independent from other markets and a single market fluctuations will affect on the other markets. Because of the degree of simultaneous fluctuations among three markets, in order to make decision in one market and reduce the errors in decision making, policy makers can also consider political tools in other markets. Furthermore, investors may allocate their assets to these three markets in order to reduce the risk of investment Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
36 - Examining the Relationship between the Level of Disclosure of Accounting Information and the Fluctuation of the Price of Stock, in the Companies Accepted in Tehran’s Stock Market
Mohammad Hassani Seyed Mohammad Bashir HosseiniAccounting information that is used by most of investors and creditors is very important for their decision making. Information about accepted companies in stock market gets revealed annually to public for decision making. So in this research, due to the importance o MoreAccounting information that is used by most of investors and creditors is very important for their decision making. Information about accepted companies in stock market gets revealed annually to public for decision making. So in this research, due to the importance of information and the disclosure of information by companies and its effect on the price of the stock, the relationship between the level of disclosure and the fluctuation of the price of stock of the companies accepted in stock market. Statistical society of this research was chosen between accepted companies in stock market which were 448 by the end of 2008. Statistical sample includes 72 companies which were chosen randomly from the statistical society. This research includes one question, one theory. For accumulating different variables of this research the available information of the Tehran’s Stock Market Organization was used and for examining the theory the index of Pierson relativity was used. By noticing the analytical statistics the research questions were answered and by examining the theory at 95% of security level the main theory of this research was confirmed and the result obtained showed a meaningful relationship between disclosure of accounting information and fluctuation of the stock price. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
37 - The Influence of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the competition indices in Iran’s Economy (1979-2013)
وحید منافی انور فرهاد خداداد کاشی جهانگیر بیابانی فاطمه پاسبانAbstract In every country the value of money is closely related to economic power, continual and stable growth of physical commodities and the more production stability would continue, the cost index is more steady.One country that has desirable and fast economic growt MoreAbstract In every country the value of money is closely related to economic power, continual and stable growth of physical commodities and the more production stability would continue, the cost index is more steady.One country that has desirable and fast economic growth, as compared with other countries , its money will be strengthened. Growth of each economic factors such as gross domestic product and partial sale and employment result in demand increasing for that foreign currency and consequently its strengthening.On other hand, some policies can increase the international competition power for one country in clued micro economics and macro economics.The purpose of this research would be considering the change real exchange rate and its effects on the competition indices in Iran’s economy during the period of 1979-2013 The equations are estimated by VAR test and using eviews6. Estimation results show that oil incomes and budget deficits had negative effects on real exchange rate, and GDP and liquidity had positive effects on real exchange rate. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
38 - Evaluating the effect of currency fluctuations on the performance of companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange and measuring its time intervals.
Mohammad Javad Mohagheq Nia Ali Asghar Ziachi Mustafa Sargolzaei Vahid KhashaiAbstractThe performance of listed firms is affected by a variety of internal and external factors. In addition to exploiting the internal factors, the managers of these firms must be able to navigate the external environment in such a way as to achieve their intended go MoreAbstractThe performance of listed firms is affected by a variety of internal and external factors. In addition to exploiting the internal factors, the managers of these firms must be able to navigate the external environment in such a way as to achieve their intended goals. The present research investigates the impact of currency fluctuations as an environmental factor on the performance of the firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). This quasi-experimental research uses the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to evaluate the impact of currency fluctuations on firm performance and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to measure the effect of lags on this relationship. The results show that currency fluctuations significantly affect the performance of TSE-listed firms, but the strength and type of these effects vary across industries. Also, these effects occur with different time lags in various industries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
39 - Asymmetric oil price shocks, tax revenues, resource curses, stock markets and trading cycles in oil-exporting economies
Hamidreza Modiri Marjan DamankeshideAbstract The present study uses the PVAR model to investigate the impact of asymmetric oil price shock, tax revenues, resource curse, stock market and business cycles in oil exporting economies during the period 2000-2019. According to the estimation results; the respo MoreAbstract The present study uses the PVAR model to investigate the impact of asymmetric oil price shock, tax revenues, resource curse, stock market and business cycles in oil exporting economies during the period 2000-2019. According to the estimation results; the response of the output gap to the shock of oil prices and exchange rates is a downward trend for up to 3 periods, after which it rises and in the long run this shock is gradually adjusted, but the problem that exists and the response of the output gap to liquidity also show this. is. Revenues from oil sales and foreign exchange earnings are not well managed in oil-rich countries, and the amount of liquidity injected into the market is spent on imports, which are generally done to combat inflation. In this case, many production sectors will be seriously damaged and will be taken out of the production cycle, and therefore part of the investments made in the economy will be unused and the amount of production will decrease, and on the other hand, when foreign exchange earnings decrease, the amount of imports. It has been reduced that part of the decrease in imports will be directed to capital goods and production machinery, leading to a decrease in investment and an increase in the production gap. Sectors that were taken out of production as a result of massive imports of consumer goods during the period of increasing oil revenues will not be revived in this period, which requires more attention of the country's officials to macroeconomic indicators. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
40 - Investigating the impact of exchange rate fluctuations as an economic stability evaluation index on asset value stability indicators
mihammad hosin emaratian Ali Najafi Moghadam Ali Baghani Mohsen Hamidian Ghodratolah EmamverdiAbstractThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of exchange rate as an indicator of economic stability on the stability of assets value in Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1385 to 1397. For this purpose, the current research is included in descript MoreAbstractThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of exchange rate as an indicator of economic stability on the stability of assets value in Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1385 to 1397. For this purpose, the current research is included in descriptive research in terms of research method and applied research in terms of purpose. Also, the design of this research is using the post-event approach. Also, in the current research, the panel data model was used to investigate the relationship between the variables. The results of the research showed that the fluctuation of the exchange rate has a significant effect on the first indicator of the stability of asset value, i.e. the book value of assets, at the level of 95%, and this effect is reversed. The effect of exchange rate fluctuation on the second index of asset value stability, which is the market value of assets, is significant at the 95% level. Also, the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on the third index of asset value stability, i.e. the current value of assets, was also negative and significant at the 95% level. Considering the influence of the exchange rate on the indicators of the stability of the value of assets, it is suggested that relying on domestic production and using raw materials available inside the country is one of the solutions to reduce losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
41 - The role of emotional management in price fluctuations of Tehran Securities and Exchnage Organization
Sayyed Shahabuddin Dehghan Banaraki Zeinolabedin Amini sabegh Ehsan SadehThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of emotional behaviors in stock price fluctuations of the Stock Exchange and Securities Organization. To this end, the adjusted three-factor model of Fama and French has been used based on the indicators of investor s MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of emotional behaviors in stock price fluctuations of the Stock Exchange and Securities Organization. To this end, the adjusted three-factor model of Fama and French has been used based on the indicators of investor sentiment. Based on the information published by the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, this study was conducted between 2013 and 2018 with a sample of 122 companies. The research hypotheses were tested using a generalized linear regression (EGLS) model. The test results of the hypotheses indicate an increase in the explanatory value of the stock price pattern by adding emotional indicators. Indicators of investor sentiment used in this study include instantaneous decision, long-term return effect on stock price fluctuations and value consumption from the perspective of price-to-earnings ratio, size effect, and loss avoidance effect. The first and second indicators of investor sentiment had a significant effect on stock prices. Regarding the third indicator, a significant relationship was observed in the model, while the loss-making effect had a positive effect on stock prices. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
42 - The effects of exchange rate appreciation on the stock value of pharmaceutical companies based on the estimated value obtained from the evaluation models of cash dividend discount, free cash flow and residual profit and real price
Javad Einabadi nayereh moradiThe effect of exchange rate appreciation on the stock value of pharmaceutical companies based on the estimated value obtained from the evaluation models of cash dividend discount, free cash flow and residual profit and real priceAbstractIn order to conduct this research MoreThe effect of exchange rate appreciation on the stock value of pharmaceutical companies based on the estimated value obtained from the evaluation models of cash dividend discount, free cash flow and residual profit and real priceAbstractIn order to conduct this research, basic information and stock prices of 52 pharmaceutical companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1390 to 1398 have been collected and used in evaluation using the cash flow discount model and other models. (1) And testing the first hypothesis of the research, in order to calculate the stock valuation for pharmaceutical companies using three models of discounted dividend, discounted dividend and discounted free cash flow, showed that the estimated stock price using the discounted dividend model has the highest Dispersion and with the discount dividend model has the lowest dispersionThe results show that at 75% confidence level there is a direct relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stocks of pharmaceutical companies and between the three models of price estimation and real stock prices, at least one group average is different from other groups. (2) Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
43 - Investigating the effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Export of steel in Iran using Mixed Frequency Data Sampling Models (MIDAS)
Elham Eslahchi Farideh Haghshenas KashaniToday, in Iran and all over the world, steel plays a crucial role in production and industrial sectors. Therefore, to increase and stabilize exports and eliminate the dependence of the country's budget on oil; adopting policies to diversify and expand the export of non- MoreToday, in Iran and all over the world, steel plays a crucial role in production and industrial sectors. Therefore, to increase and stabilize exports and eliminate the dependence of the country's budget on oil; adopting policies to diversify and expand the export of non-oil goods, especially the steel, by removing obstacles and adopting appropriate solutions in all developing countries with a single-product economy, including Iran, is inevitable.The purpose of this article is investigating the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on export of steel accordingly in MIDAS modeling framework. this model makes it possible to review former steel export forecasts and revise them regarding the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on steel industry exports, if more reliable data is available. In the estimated Midas model, annual statistics of steel exports, steel production, real and uncertain production, exchange rate, monthly variables of exchange rate and sanctions index are utilized during from 1992 until 2021. The results show that there is a positive relationship between the exchange rate and steel exports, and the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and steel exports is negative, therefore these effects are more intense in the long term. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
44 - The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Stock Returns Fluctuations
Hadi Mahboubi Marjan Damankeshideh Houshang Momeni Shahriyar NessabianAbstract The present article explains the effect of some macroeconomic indicators on stock return fluctuations .Artificial exchange rate pricing in the years before the crisis and preventing it from adjusting to the economic conditions is one of the main reasons for th MoreAbstract The present article explains the effect of some macroeconomic indicators on stock return fluctuations .Artificial exchange rate pricing in the years before the crisis and preventing it from adjusting to the economic conditions is one of the main reasons for the recent currency crisis. Also, the calculation of the foreign exchange market pressure index indicates that the highest numbers obtained for this index are related to the time when the gap between the free exchange rate and the official exchange rate has increased. The results also showed that the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on stock return fluctuations is positive and significant, which indicates that there is a high correlation between stock returns and the exchange rate market. Also, the positive sign of the coefficient indicates a positive and significant effect of interest rates on the variability of stock returns. This result shows that higher interest rates have led to more fluctuations in stock returns. Finally, GDP per capita was not significant in any of the error levels of 1, 5 and 10%, which indicates that it did not have a significant effect on stock fluctuations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
45 - Management and Environmental Assessment of Simultaneous Production of Solar Electricity and Heat (Case Study: Sar Agha Seyed Rural Health Center)
Mashallah Valikhani Dehaghani Mohsen Khalili Samani Daryosh Mohamadi Janaki -
Open Access Article
46 - Designing non-linear pattern contagious influence of the Tehran Price Index from the physical assets market (Application of NARX artificial neural network model)
mahdi shaban habibollah nakhaei Ghodrat Alloh Talebnia nazanin bashirimaneshThe present study examines the contagiousness of the Tehran Stock Exchange from the price of parallel assets using the dynamic neural network. To perform calculations, the time series of coin price variables as a representative of the gold market, the average price per MoreThe present study examines the contagiousness of the Tehran Stock Exchange from the price of parallel assets using the dynamic neural network. To perform calculations, the time series of coin price variables as a representative of the gold market, the average price per square meter of residential building as a representative of the housing market. The price of each barrel of Iranian crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate and their conditional fluctuations as explanatory variables and the total index of Tehran Stock Exchange and its conditional fluctuation as the target variable from 1387 to 1397 are examined daily .The dynamic neural network is evaluated with four input variables and one target variable with different neurons with the MSE criteria, and the models with 20 neurons and 10 neurons have the lowest MSE, .Research results show that the stock exchange has a maximum of two lag from competing markets has become contagious, indicating the poor performance of the Tehran Stock Exchange. The results show that the proposed neural network patterns have a high power in predicting the index of Tehran Stock Exchange and its fluctuations from 1387 to 1397 as in-sample forecast and in 1398 as extra-sample forecast. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
47 - "Analysis of the dynamic effect of oil, gold and stock market index on Iran's economy: a new approach with the SVAR-DCC-GARCH model"
tara heidari chavari mirfeyz fallahshams hashem ninoomaram Frydoon Rahnamay Roodposhti Gholamreza zomorodianIn the global economy, oil prices have been considered a key indicator of exchange rate fluctuations. This significance arises from the fact that international oil transactions are largely conducted in US dollars. Emphasizing this importance, the present article examine MoreIn the global economy, oil prices have been considered a key indicator of exchange rate fluctuations. This significance arises from the fact that international oil transactions are largely conducted in US dollars. Emphasizing this importance, the present article examines the dynamic relationship between oil prices, gold, and the stock index in the Iranian economy during the period from 1370 to 1401 using the SVAR-DCC-GARCH model. The results indicate that an increase in the growth of the stock index may lead to an increase in the price of gold, while having no significant impact on the oil market. Furthermore, increases in the gold and oil markets do not notably affect the Iranian stock market, and interestingly, there is no distinct correlation between the oil and gold markets. These findings vary throughout temporal fluctuations. Ultimately, employing the SVAR-DCC-GARCH model, this article analyzes the dynamic relationship between oil prices, gold, and the stock index in the Iranian economy, revealing that this relationship changes under different conditions over time. This contributes to a better understanding of the effects of fluctuations in these indicators on the Iranian economy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
48 - Evaluating The Sinusoidal Fluctuations of the Emotional and Radiant Orientations of Active Investors in The Formation of Thick Decision in The Capital Market
Zahra Jafari Rahim Bonabi Ghadim Rasoul AbdiThis study, using "MyBiocycle" software, the sinusoidal fluctuations of the emotional and illuminative periods of active investors are evaluated in order to influence thick decision in the capital market. In this study, in order to evaluate the sinusoidal fluctuations, MoreThis study, using "MyBiocycle" software, the sinusoidal fluctuations of the emotional and illuminative periods of active investors are evaluated in order to influence thick decision in the capital market. In this study, in order to evaluate the sinusoidal fluctuations, time period of 2 months were considered in the form of 4 time periods of 15 days in order to determine the difference between the emotional and radiant orientations of active investors. In this study, 48 real investors were selected based on the ratio of "12/4" (four groups of twelve people) in order to be placed in two emotional and illuminative categories and based on variance analysis tests, their effectiveness in the formation of crowd decision-making in the capital market was investigated. The results of the study indicated that the real active investors who are in the negative area in the evaluation of the sinusoidal fluctuations of the emotional period have higher thick decision compared to the active real investors who are in the positive area in the evaluation of the sinusoidal fluctuations of the emotional period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
49 - Estimation and Comparison of Short-Term Interest Rate Equilibrium Models Using Islamic Treasury Bills
moslem peymany zohreh hooshangiIn the following paper, short-term interest rate is modeled using some of the most prevalent single factor equilibrium models in Iran. In this research, model’s performance is compared to each other using some indicators relating to model fitness, interest volatil MoreIn the following paper, short-term interest rate is modeled using some of the most prevalent single factor equilibrium models in Iran. In this research, model’s performance is compared to each other using some indicators relating to model fitness, interest volatility and interest level changes. For this purpose, Islamic treasury bill yield data were obtained from the period 1394 to 1395 and the models were estimated using generalized method of moments. The findings of this research illustrate that Brennan-Schwartz and CKLS models perform better in interest rate fitness compared to other restricted models. Also, Brennan-Schwartz model show more predictive power than other models. In addition, short-term interest rate of Islamic Treasury Bill exhibit some mean reverting feature and the level of long term mean is estimated as well. Although all the models perform poorly in interest rate volatility fitness, there are some evidences showing that it is sensitive to the level of interest rate. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
50 - A Markov regime-switching model for crude-oil market fluctuations
mohammadreza Rostami maryam naghavipour maryam MoghaddasbayatAccording to the findings of financial econometric researches, oil prices as one of the most important macroeconomic variables affect financial markets and economies of oil exporting countries. In this study, the price of OPEC oil basket has been used with daily frequen MoreAccording to the findings of financial econometric researches, oil prices as one of the most important macroeconomic variables affect financial markets and economies of oil exporting countries. In this study, the price of OPEC oil basket has been used with daily frequency. The period under review is from August 3, 2013 to December 26, 2016. The course includes various developments such as unrest and war in the Middle East, a sharp and unexpected decline in oil prices for reasons such as a decline in demand, an agreement 27, and the agreement of OPEC members to reduce oil production in order to increase oil prices, is located. Initial studies indicate cluster fluctuations, ie, independent and uniform distribution characteristics and variance consistency. The Breusch Godfrey test confirms the effects of ARCH and GARCH. Also, a generalized test with the estimation of kernel density based on the Monte Carlo rule indicates Parson’s weight on the effects of ARCH in the variable. The results of the study of oil price fluctuations using the MS-GARCH model of single and multiple regimes indicate that the three regimes model is suitable for explaining the behavior of the variable in the reviewed period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
51 - Volatility Clustering in financial markets based on the agent based model
zahra shirazianThe purpose of this study is to investigate the clustering of fluctuations in financial markets, including the stock market, with the underlying model of simulation.Time series of financial asset returns show the clustering of volatility, which shows that large changes MoreThe purpose of this study is to investigate the clustering of fluctuations in financial markets, including the stock market, with the underlying model of simulation.Time series of financial asset returns show the clustering of volatility, which shows that large changes in prices tend to form clusters together And these clusters will last for a long time. Time series of financial asset returns often exhibit the volatility clustering property: large changes in prices tend to cluster together, resulting in persistence of the amplitudes of price changes. After recalling various methods for quantifying and modeling this phenomenon, we discuss several economic mechanisms which have been proposed to explain the origin of this volatility clustering in terms of behavior of market participants and the news arrival process. A common feature of these models seems to be a switching between low and high activity regimes with heavy-tailed durations of regimes. Finally, we discuss a simple agent-based model which links such variations in market activity to threshold behavior of market participants and suggests a link between volatility clustering and investor inertia. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
52 - Volatility clustering in financial markets based on the agent based model
zahra shirazian Hashem Nikoomaram Fereydoon Rahnamay Roodposhti Taghi TORABIThe purpose of this study is to investigate the clustering of fluctuations in financial markets, including the stock market, with the underlying model of simulation. Time series of financial asset returns show the clustering of volatility, which shows that large changes MoreThe purpose of this study is to investigate the clustering of fluctuations in financial markets, including the stock market, with the underlying model of simulation. Time series of financial asset returns show the clustering of volatility, which shows that large changes in prices tend to form clusters together And these clusters will last for a long time. Time series of financial asset returns often exhibit the volatility clustering property: large changes in prices tend to cluster together, resulting in persistence of the amplitudes of price changes. After recalling various methods for quantifying and modeling this phenomenon, we discuss several economic mechanisms which have been proposed to explain the origin of this volatility clustering in terms of behavior of market participants and the news arrival process. A common feature of these models seems to be a switching between low and high activity regimes with heavy-tailed durations of regimes. Finally, we discuss a simple agent-based model which links such variations in market activity to threshold behavior of market participants and suggests a link between volatility clustering and investor inertia. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
53 - Examining the overflow of financial stress index fluctuations on inflation, interest rate, liquidity and industry index using GARCH-BEKK and VAR models and Granger causality
Rohollah Rezazadeh Mirfeiz FalahDuring financial stress, the impact of financial stress shocks on economic activity may differ from what is usually observed at normal times. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider the effects of financial stress on economic activity and inflation during the period of MoreDuring financial stress, the impact of financial stress shocks on economic activity may differ from what is usually observed at normal times. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider the effects of financial stress on economic activity and inflation during the period of financial instability. In this paper, hence, the effect of the deterioration of financial conditions of the Iranian economy on macroeconomic variables between 2012 and 2017 has been investigated. For this purpose, in this research, we intend to study the impact of the fluctuations of the financial stress index on inflation, interest rates, liquidity, and industry index by developing the financial stress index using representatives from different markets. Therefore, using the GARCH two-variable BEKK model and also the VAR model, the effects of shocks and fluctuations between them were tested and then the relationship between them was investigated by Granger's causality test. The results indicate that there is a two-way relationship between the financial stress index and inflation, interest rate, and liquidity, but in examining the causality between the financial stress index and the industry index, the results of the causality test indicate that the industry index itself, in the long run, triggers changes in the financial stress index, but the financial stress index has no effect on the industry index. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
54 - stock return prediction models; Estimating the distribution of total market returns and its fluctuations based on the Laplace distribution
Masoumeh Mohammadi Ledari Iman DadashiAbstractIn most return forecasting models, the return of the total market is used as one of the factors affecting the return of securities. In most of these models, such as the pricing model of capital assets and Black-Scholes, the data distribution is assumed to be nor MoreAbstractIn most return forecasting models, the return of the total market is used as one of the factors affecting the return of securities. In most of these models, such as the pricing model of capital assets and Black-Scholes, the data distribution is assumed to be normal. This is while the distribution of the total return is not necessarily normal and often has a significant difference from the normal distribution. If such a hypothesis is confirmed, the expected return predicted by these models will not be very effective in financial decisions. The purpose of this research is to model the total return of Tehran Stock Exchange based on the Laplace distribution and examine the dependence of the total return fluctuations on the desired distribution. In order to examine the distribution of the total daily return and its weekly fluctuations, data related to a 15-year period between 1387 and 1401 and R statistical software were used. The data analysis showed that the total daily return followed the Laplace distribution and the weekly fluctuations of the total return followed the distribution obtained based on the Laplace distribution. These findings make the use of models with the assumption of normality of total return to predict stock returns in Tehran Stock Exchange a major challenge and are a clear proof of the ineffectiveness of these models. . Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
55 - Relationship between Asset Revaluation and Stock Price Fluctuations and Analysis of Shareholder Behavior
امیرعباس صاحبقرانی هادی سجلاتیAbstract Necessity of the research because one of the shortcomings of historical cost is the lack of reflection of the day value of assets in inflationary conditions, which will affect the capital market. And analysis of shareholder behavior. The statistical population MoreAbstract Necessity of the research because one of the shortcomings of historical cost is the lack of reflection of the day value of assets in inflationary conditions, which will affect the capital market. And analysis of shareholder behavior. The statistical population is all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, taking into account the information close to the research time, in the period from 1395 to 1398. Data collection is used from Rahavard and Kadal sites. Final data analysis is also performed using Eviews10 software. The results show that there is a direct relationship between revaluation and fluctuations in the company's stock price and this relationship is positive so that in the capital market by performing the revaluation process, the risk of price impact as a price increase from the revaluation process. Be it officially or as a rumor or news item, in these cases it often has a psychological atmosphere and a positive effect. There is no significant relationship between revaluation and stock price fluctuations of companies with net losses and between revaluation and stock price fluctuations of companies with high trading volume. Due to the current increase in inflation in the country and the up-to-dateness of the issue of revaluation among capital market residents, various companies are working in this direction, which is an important issue. Also, the effect of revaluation on the price and the news through which it affects the stocks of companies, causes users, investors, creditors and shareholders to have different behaviors towards it. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
56 - The Effect of Yield Fluctuations and Production Risk on Pistachio Commercial Cultivars in Kerman Province
Hasan Arab Maryam Afrousheh Mohammad Abdollahi Ezatabadi Ali Tajabadipour -
Open Access Article
57 - Price Movement Influences the Major Coconut Products Production in Fiji
Divnesh Swamy Shamal Kumar William Kerua Owais Wani Natasha RajThe major coconut products produced in Fiji are copra and coconut oil. As a consequence, coconut oil is the only product now exported, and price fluctuations have a substantial impact. This study examines the changes in copra and coconut oil prices for Fiji from 2009 to MoreThe major coconut products produced in Fiji are copra and coconut oil. As a consequence, coconut oil is the only product now exported, and price fluctuations have a substantial impact. This study examines the changes in copra and coconut oil prices for Fiji from 2009 to 2019. The present study used secondary data for analysis. Copra pricing information was gathered from Fiji Copra Millers, and coconut oil price information was gathered from the website for palm oil analytics' crude coconut oil price. The price changes for trend, cyclical, seasonal, and irregular fluctuations were computed using a multiplicative model. Both the price of copra and the price of coconut oil displayed poor connections, R2= 0.39 and R2= 0.18, respectively, despite the years' considerable price volatility. The price of copra and coconut oil fluctuated significantly throughout the year and in distinctly diverse ways. Seasonality and erratic price fluctuations were particularly pronounced for coconut oil, which directly affected the price of copra and discouraged farmers from investing in coconut plants, lowering productivity, production, and copra supply. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
58 - Density Fluctuations of Two Major Aspergillus Species Airborne Spores in Pistachio Growing Regions of Iran
M. G. Moradi H. Hokmabadi M. Mirabolfathy -
Open Access Article
59 - The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on economic growth and inflation, 1340-1388
A. Tavakoli N. Turquoise F. KarimiThe exchange rate is one of important macroeconomics indices which its fluctuation has large effects on economic growth and inflation rate. Therefore, the policymakers should take into account when analyzing exchange rate behavior.Applying the econometrics of OLS MoreThe exchange rate is one of important macroeconomics indices which its fluctuation has large effects on economic growth and inflation rate. Therefore, the policymakers should take into account when analyzing exchange rate behavior.Applying the econometrics of OLS and SUR methods, the present study uses a yearly time series of 1961 to 2009 to estimate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Iranian economic growth and inflation rate. Both methods of Cover (1992) and GARCH are applied to calculate the fluctuations. In addition to the exchange rate fluctuations, the effects of oil price fluctuations, calculated using a GARCH method, is included in the model. The effect of exchange rate and oil price fluctuations along with other policy variables such as money liquidity and government expenditures are considered in the model.The estimated results show that the exchange rate and oil price fluctuations affect the economic growth and inflation rate:The positive and negative exchange rate fluctuations have direct effect on economic growth.The positive and negative exchange rate fluctuations have negative and positive effects on inflation rate, respectively.The (expected) exchange rate changed has a positive effect on the economic growth. This effect on inflation rate is negative.The oil price fluctuations have a positive effect on economic growth but a negative effect on inflation rate.Taking into account of both money liquidity and government expenditure changes, the effect of liquidity change is positive on economic growth and inflation rate, whereas; the government expenditure change only affects the economic growth positively. Overall, the effect of liquidity change overcomes the effect of government expenditure. Comparing the effects of exchange rate and oil price changes on economic growth and inflation, the impact effect of exchange rate changes is more pronounce. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
60 - The Study of the relationship between Exchange Rates and the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based On Panel Data in Selected Countries
Mohammad Reza ShahabProductivity is one the important concepts and fundamental necessity for the economic growth and development of all countries of the world. Hence, the study and identification of variables and factors influencing it, is essential especially for appropriate policymaking. MoreProductivity is one the important concepts and fundamental necessity for the economic growth and development of all countries of the world. Hence, the study and identification of variables and factors influencing it, is essential especially for appropriate policymaking. The main objective of this study can be served as an investigation of the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the TFP growth and to achieve this, the third class of endogenous growth theories have been considered in order to design hypotheses and model.To test hypotheses, the panel data methodology is employed for the period of 2000 to 2009 and the specified model is estimated for 7 selected countries of APO members including I.R Of Iran in deferent approaches and in order to determine the presence and type of effects, the Leamer and Hauseman tests are carried out.The results of estimations confirm our two hypotheses and statistically indicate that the significant relation between exchange rate fluctuations and TFP growth cannot be rejected so that the TFP growth will decline if the exchange rate increases and vice versa. Furthermore, the study has several consequences which are concerned with the effects of other variables on the TFP growth, such as the degree of openness to foreign trade and inflationary circumstances. Policy recommendations have been discussed in the terminal sector of paper. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
61 - Investigating the effect of economic uncertainty on the relationship between comparability of financial statements and the stock price crash riskon Tehran Stock Exchange
Zoheyr Alipourzadeh Alireza Ghanbarzade Mohammad Abbedi Arezo JabariWhen auditors see an abnormal fluctuation in profit over the previous year, they will perceive it as an audit risk. Therefore, in their response to the perceived risk, there will be more effort and attention. They increase their audits to the same level, and this affect MoreWhen auditors see an abnormal fluctuation in profit over the previous year, they will perceive it as an audit risk. Therefore, in their response to the perceived risk, there will be more effort and attention. They increase their audits to the same level, and this affects the audit fee. Management transactions, on the other hand, are part of the transactions with affiliates that companies make with the main managers of the business unit or their close relatives. So far, it has received less attention in the research literature and can affect the relationship between profit fluctuations and audit fees. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the effect of management transactions on the relationship between annual earnings fluctuations and audit fees in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. EViews statistical software was used for statistical analysis. In this research, 150 companies (1050 years of company) were selected to test the research hypotheses between 2013 and 2020.To test the research hypotheses with data consolidated from multiple linear, regression analyzes were used. In general, the summary of the results of testing the research hypotheses show that annual profit fluctuations have a significant positive effect on the audit fees of companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange. The results also show that managerial transactions increase the positive relationship between annual earnings fluctuations and audit fees of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
62 - Developing an LSTM neural network model for predicting blocktrade transaction valuation
Adeleh Bahreini Maryam Akbaryan Fard Mehdi KhoshnoodObjective: The capability of intelligent systems in predicting economic and financial variables, particularly stock prices, has been confirmed in previous research in Iran and other countries. However, the valuation of block transactions is calculated for the first time MoreObjective: The capability of intelligent systems in predicting economic and financial variables, particularly stock prices, has been confirmed in previous research in Iran and other countries. However, the valuation of block transactions is calculated for the first time in this study. The aim is to investigate the outcomes and information from the financial reports of listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange using 15 financial indices and determine the impact of these indices on the valuation of block transactions by employing the RMSE test on the Test dataset.Research Methodology: For this purpose, financial information from 64 companies within the accepted companies of the Tehran Stock Exchange for the period from 1390 to 1400 has been utilized. The research hypothesis is tested using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning neural network model.Findings: The LSTM neural network, due to its high capability in training data, appropriate weights for these data, and creating a path that efficiently and accurately produces acceptable results for predicting the valuation of block transactions.Originality/Value: In the proposed model, by measuring the valuation of block transactions, we will scrutinize the prices of these transactions and the effects of information and liquidity in large-sized transactions. Manuscript profile
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