Predict the Impact of Climatic Change on the Agro-climatic Indexes and Rice Yield Case study: North of Iran

Subject Areas : Regional Planning

Mehrdad Ramazanipour ¹ (Assistant .prof, Islamic Azad University, Chalous branch , Mazandaran Province.)

Received: 2018-01-25 Accepted : 2018-11-18 Published : 2019-01-21

Keywords: LARS-WG, Climatic Fluctuations, Multivariable Regression, Rice Yield Prediction, North of Iran,

Abstract :

Rice as a strategic and influential product in the economy a significant portion of the population living in the northern regions of the country needs new planning and management in the field of environmental and climatic factors. In this study, the rice yield was estimated for the time interval (2010-2039) with regard to climate parameters fluctuations in northern Iran. The sample meteorological stations were selected in this research: Noshahr, Babolsar and Gharakhil. The Lars-WG model was used to simulate meteorological parameters and multivariate regression equations to predict rice yield. The results showed that the fluctuations of each of the maximum temperature parameters of September, the minimum temperature, the sunny hours of August and the maximum temperature of September would fluctuate in the rice yield.
There is more sensitivity and adaptation between sunshine and rice yield at Noshahr station in August. But the April rainfall shows a relative adaptation to the rice product. The maximum temperature in September and the minimum temperature in May will be due to a stronger sensitivity and conformance to rice yield at Gharakhil Station. But in general, rice yield will have a similar reaction to the climate parameters in Noshahr and Gharakhil stations and the highest compliance and sensitivity between rice crop yield and maximum September temperatures is expected at Bablosar Station. Analysis of the findings revealed that the production of rice will decrease from 2010 to 2029 in Noshahr and Ghaemshahr, and will increase in the Bablosar region from 2010 to 2019, and then decline from 2020 to 2029. But in general, the rising trend in rice yield is projected from 2030 to 2039 for all three stations.

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