The Effect of OPEC Statements on Fluctuations in Crude Oil Prices

Subject Areas : Labor and Demographic Economics

Fariba  Shahbodaghlou ¹ (Ph.D Candidate of Oil & Gas Economics,Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Accounting, Islamic Azad University of Central Tehran Branch)
Aliasghar  Esmaeilnia gatabi ² (Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)
azadeh  mehrabian ³ (Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)
ROYA  SEIFIPOUR ⁴ (Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)

Received: 2019-09-25 Accepted : 2020-07-11 Published : 2020-04-20

Keywords: G15, event analysis, JEL Classification: L 10, G14. Keywords: OPEC Statements, Crude Oil Price Fluctuations, Abnormal Yields, General Conditional Heterogeneity Variance Models (GARCH-X),

Abstract :

  The purpose of this article is to examine the effect of OPEC statements (whether increasing, decreasing or not changing supply) on oil price fluctuations in crude oil markets. For this purpose, conditional heterogeneity and variable control variance models have been used to investigate the effect of statements on Brent and WTI crude oil price fluctuations during the period 1987-2019 based on the event analysis approach. The findings show that OPEC statements have a significant effect on the turmoil in the oil market, and the type of statements varies on crude oil market fluctuations, and this effect has diminished over time. Based on the results, members' solidarity in the field of planning and coordinated implementation of decisions for maximum impact on the crude oil market is proposed.

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