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Open Access Article
1 - Financial accelerator in a DSGE model with financial and banking sectors for Iran
Hassan Heidari Ahmad MolabahramiThis study examines the financial accelerator theory of Bernanke and et al (1999) for Iran economy using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. In this regard, a DSGE model with financial and banking sectors in the New Keynesian framework is designed, ca MoreThis study examines the financial accelerator theory of Bernanke and et al (1999) for Iran economy using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. In this regard, a DSGE model with financial and banking sectors in the New Keynesian framework is designed, calibrated and simulated and the results are compared with standard DSGE model without financial sector for the quarterly data of Iran during 1371 to 1390. To examine the financial accelerator theory, the impulse responses functions of proposed model are compared with standard model. The results show that, the proposed model has better ability to fit the Economy of Iran than the standard model. The impulse responses functions analysis show that the impact of deposit rate shock on the real sector variables within the proposed model is greater and more persistence and need more time to settlement than standard model. So the theory of financial accelerator is accepted in the Economy of Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - تحلیل اثرات کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت عوامل مؤثر بر ساختار تجارت در اقتصاد ایران کاربرد روش ARDL
سیده مروه ناصرصدرآبادی فرهاد غفاری تیمور محمدی عباس معمارنژاد -
Open Access Article
3 - رابطه رشد اقتصادی، شدت انرژی و توسعه مالی: یک مقایسه از اقتصادهای ایران و ترکیه
حسین فتحی زاده مسعود نونژاد علی حقیقت عباس امینی فرد -
Open Access Article
4 - اثر شوکهای مصرف کل گاز طبیعی بر انتشار دی اکسید کربن و رشد اقتصادی ایران و کشورهای منتخب منا
محمدحسن قزوینیان -
Open Access Article
5 - تأثیر سهم واردات بر قیمت‌های داخلی صنایع پتروشیمی ایران
علیرضا کازرونی نسرین فرضی -
Open Access Article
6 - مقایسه تطبیقی اثر شوکهای مصرف نفت خام بر انتشار دی اکسید کربن و رشد اقتصادی در ایران و کشورهای منتخب منا
محمدحسن قزوینیان کامبیز هژبر کیانی علی دهقانی فاطمه زندی خلیل سعیدی -
Open Access Article
7 - The Effect of Electricity Consumption Shocks on Environmental pollution and Economic Growth in Iran and Selected Countries MENA: A Comparative Comparison with the PVAR Approach
mohammad hasan ghazvinian kambiz hojabr kiani ali dehghani fatemeh zandi khalil saeediBackground and Objective: Production, including industrial and agricultural production, is not possible without the existence of economic infrastructure. Electricity plays an important role in the industrial development of countries due to changes in the industries and MoreBackground and Objective: Production, including industrial and agricultural production, is not possible without the existence of economic infrastructure. Electricity plays an important role in the industrial development of countries due to changes in the industries and the conversion of mechanical to electrical power, the emergence of electric motors and the development of machine tools. Purpose of this article, comparative comparison of the effects of electricity consumption shocks on Environmental pollution and economic growth in IRAN and selected MENA countries.Material and Methodology: The article is descriptive, analytical and inferential, to achieve this goal, the method has been used the PVAR approach during the period 2016-1992 as well as the country of Iran during the period 2016-1985 using the VAR method has been studied.Findings: Findings: Electricity consumption, direct foreign investment, labor force and capital inventory have a direct and significant relationship with economic growth, but environmental pollution has a negative and significant relationship with Iran's economic growth. Discussion and Conclusion: the results indicate that the shock of increasing electricity consumption in selected MENA countries after an insignificant decrease in GDP per capita will increase proportionally in subsequent periods but in Iran, it grows very smoothly. The effect of this shock on carbon dioxide emissions in the countries concerned has been relatively mildly reduced, but in Iran, carbon dioxide emissions have been at a higher level than before. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - The Effect of Pollution Tax on Houshould's Demand for Environment Polluting Goods
Zahra Hosseinzadah Kandsari Majid MadddahBackground and Objective: One of the most important problems of human societies is greenhouse gas emissions which are increasing along with population and economic growths and development of countries. Environmental pollution damages people’s health and imposes co MoreBackground and Objective: One of the most important problems of human societies is greenhouse gas emissions which are increasing along with population and economic growths and development of countries. Environmental pollution damages people’s health and imposes costs on societies. Taxes are considered as pollution control and environmental protection tools which can influence people's incentives for the consumption of environment polluting goods and can control the pollution. Method: The effect of tax pollution on households' demand for three environment polluting goods, including vehicles fuel, electricity and water commodity, was studied by estimating the Linear Expenditure System (LES). For this purpose, first the parameters of marginal propensity of expenses and households’ minimum income for living were obtained. Then, the linear expenditure system was estimated. Findings: The results from estimating the model show that i) the tax elasticity of demand for vehicles fuel, electricity and water are -0.364, -0.326 and -0.233, respectively, and pollution tax on fuel, electricity and water reduces the demand for these commodities and thereby reduces the environmental pollution; and ii) the effect of tax pollution on reducing vehicles fuel consumption is stronger than that of tax on reducing consumption of other goods. Discussion and Conclusion: The significant effect of tax on reducing pollution highlights the importance of using tax instruments for reducing pollution. This finding can be considered in the policy making system for future planning in the country. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Direct and Indirect Effects of Government Expenditures on Pollution Based on Simultaneous Equations System Approach
Majid Maddah Fatemeh RaoufiBackground and Objective: Some market activities have negative consequences such as pollution and destruction of environment. The market, despite its outputs, cannot product optimum quantity of goods and services and in other words it fails. In order to prevent ma MoreBackground and Objective: Some market activities have negative consequences such as pollution and destruction of environment. The market, despite its outputs, cannot product optimum quantity of goods and services and in other words it fails. In order to prevent market failure, government must intervene in the market activities through the policies of environmental protection and suitable regulation in order to reduce pollution and establish optimal conditions for production and consumption. Method: In order to investigate the effect of government expenditures on pollution, first a simultaneous equations system during 1975-2011 was specified, and after estimation of equations using two-stage least squares and three-stage least squares methods, the relationship between the direct and indirect effects of government expenditures and pollution on economy of Iran was studied. Findings: The results from estimation of equations systems specified in static and dynamic approaches devide direct and indirect effects at show that i) the size of government only has the direct effect on per capita pollution ii) there is a significant and positive relationship between the government size and per capita emissions with elasticity coefficient of 0.08 in static approach and there is a significant and negative relationship between the government size and per capita emmisions with elasticity coefficient of -0.163 in dynamic approach. Therefore, increase of the government expenditure has a negative effect on pollution and decreases it in a period of time. In addition to government size, economic openness and consumption have a significant and positive effects and total investment and population have a significant and negative effects on the per capita pollution in economy of Iran. Conclusion: The findings of this research can help in using appropriate policies such as improving public educations, proper execution of laws and regulations, strict enforcement of environmental laws and amplification of public infrastructure with the aim of environmental protection and pollution prevention. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - The Role of Islamic Republic of Iran in Promoting Economic Justice in the last Three Decades: The TVP Approach
Mohammad Ali Motafaker Azad Seyed Kamal Sadegi Seyed Abbas Mousaviyan Ahmad Asadzadeh Habib AghajaniA major concern in any social system including the Islamic Economic System has always been explication of the role of the government in economy and achieving economic justice. The aim of the present study, thus, was to explore the role of the government in fulfilling th MoreA major concern in any social system including the Islamic Economic System has always been explication of the role of the government in economy and achieving economic justice. The aim of the present study, thus, was to explore the role of the government in fulfilling the criteria for economic justice in Iran. To achieve the goal, we first estimated the descriptive statistics of various references to economic justice based on religious texts specifically the holy Koran, Sunna, and views of Islamic Experts. Further, the role of the government was investigated via the TVP approach and the Kalman Filter method in administration of justice over a 40-year period commencing from 1355. The findings revealed that the state development expenditure has constantly enhanced economic justice while current spending failed to promote economic justice criteria. Also, inflation has always been one of the impressive factors influencing and deteriorating economic justice parameters. In addition, economic growth has failed to promote economic justice criteria. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - The Impact of Bank Facilities in Different Areas of Economy on the Growth of the Added Values in Industry, Services, Agriculture, Building Construction and Housing
Mohsen Fatthi Aghababa Khosrow Azizi Mahmmod MahmmodzadeThis study is aimed of investigating the impact of the offered facilities of the banking system in fields of industry, services, agriculture, construction and housing on the added values of the aforementioned fields which was the steady state approach in the economic gr MoreThis study is aimed of investigating the impact of the offered facilities of the banking system in fields of industry, services, agriculture, construction and housing on the added values of the aforementioned fields which was the steady state approach in the economic growth models, to reach this, systematic generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) and time period information (data) from 1370 to 1396 have been used in Iran’s economic. The results of investigation from estimated equations indicate that non-duty and duty offered facilities has had a positive and significant effect on the added values in economic areas.Among these, the share of offered facilities to services, industry and mines, construction, housing and agriculture have had the greatest effect on the added values respectively. Prioritization of sectors based on economic return to scale and the amount of optimal allocation of bank credit can have favorable effects on the value added of various economic sectors in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Modeling the Substitution Effects of Taxes on the Size of the Shadow Economy (An Empirical Application for the Iranian Economy)
Mahboobeh FarahatiThe purpose of this study is to examine the effects of substituting different tax items for each other (or changes in tax mix) on the size of the shadow economy in Iran. To this end, a proposed model is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) appr MoreThe purpose of this study is to examine the effects of substituting different tax items for each other (or changes in tax mix) on the size of the shadow economy in Iran. To this end, a proposed model is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach for the period 1355-1394. The results show that the substitution of company tax for income tax or commodities tax as well as the substitution of wealth tax for income tax, commodities tax, company tax or import tax reduce the size of the shadow economy. In addition, the substitution of import tax for income tax, corporate tax, or commodities tax leads to a decrease in the size of the shadow economy, while the substitution of commodities tax for income tax has no significant effect on the activities of this sector. The results of this study provide a good basis for adjusting the tax mix to reduce or limit the shadow economy sector in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Threshold Effects of Government Size on Happiness Inequality in Iran
Ebrahim Zare mehrzad ebrahimi Abbas Aminifard Hashem ZareHappiness and happiness inequality are important issues that economists have been studying in recent years. However, studies addressing the inequality of happiness are limited, and more research is needed to shed light on its antecedents and mechanism. Th MoreHappiness and happiness inequality are important issues that economists have been studying in recent years. However, studies addressing the inequality of happiness are limited, and more research is needed to shed light on its antecedents and mechanism. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government size and happiness inequality in the Iranian economy using a threshold regression model during the period of 1974-2016. The results of the estimation of research models show that the size of the government has a threshold effect on happiness inequality. In other words, before the threshold of 13 percent of the government-to-GDP ratio, the government size has a diminutive effect on the inequality of happiness, but after passing through the threshold and increasing the government's involvement in the economy, this variable has a significant positive effect on the happiness inequality. Thus, the expansion of the size of government in the Iranian economy has exacerbated the happiness gap between the low-income and high-income classes of society. Based on the research results, it is suggested that policymakers pay attention to the threshold relationship between government size and inequality of happiness of society when implementing their policies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Analysis of the Effect of News Shocks Related to the Future Technology on on on Economic Welfare
mohammad alibegli nader mehregan alireza erfaniThe present article aimed to understand the effect of news shocks related to the technology on macroeconomic variables. In this regard, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used to analyze the reaction of macroeconomic variables in Iran based on seasonal d MoreThe present article aimed to understand the effect of news shocks related to the technology on macroeconomic variables. In this regard, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used to analyze the reaction of macroeconomic variables in Iran based on seasonal data during 2001-2021. The results indicate that the news shocks increases the productivity of all production factors within one standard deviation. This increase escalates the wage rate as well as the interest rate. Household consumption, production and investment also increase opposing this shock. Due to the increase in production, the working hours will increase and consequently the inflation will decrease. Moreover, the economic prosperity grows due to the increased consumption and production. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Improving the Efficiency of Household Electricity Consumption and Its Return Effect in Iran In Terms Of Asymmetry in Electricity Prices
azar alidadi pour musa khoshkalam khosroshahiThe purpose of this paper is to estimate the size of the direct return effect related to electricity consumption in the domestic sector of Iran in terms of asymmetry in electricity prices using the conventional least squares method. For this purpose, and considering the MoreThe purpose of this paper is to estimate the size of the direct return effect related to electricity consumption in the domestic sector of Iran in terms of asymmetry in electricity prices using the conventional least squares method. For this purpose, and considering the separation of electricity prices based on the Dargi and Gitley (1995) study, annual data for the period 1397-1347 and estimating the elasticity of electricity demand have been used. The results showed that first, improving the efficiency of household electricity consumption has a return effect and second, the return effect in the household sector is equal to 43%; That is, with a 10% increase in home appliance technology, 4.3% of the expected reserve due to the improvement of electricity consumption efficiency did not occur and this amount appeared in the form of a return effect and only 5.7% of the expected reserve in electricity consumption was realized. Based on the findings, it is suggested that economic policymakers, by accurately estimating the return effect, while achieving the goal of saving electricity consumption, also avoid wasting resources. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - Modeling DB-PAYG, Full Funded and Defined Contributions Pension Systems in Iran's Economy
Hamid Rezazadeh mostafa sargolzaei Moslem Peymany Foroushany Hossein Tavakolian Meysam AmiriThe present study simulates and compares three types of pension systems, DB-PAYG, Full Funded and Defined Contributions, and their impact on Iran’s macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, the General Equilibrium model of Overlapping Generations is designed base MoreThe present study simulates and compares three types of pension systems, DB-PAYG, Full Funded and Defined Contributions, and their impact on Iran’s macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, the General Equilibrium model of Overlapping Generations is designed based on the variables of the Iran economy. The results showed that the Full Funded pension system performs better than other systems in terms of capital stock, output and welfare. Also, among these three systems, the DB-PAYG system has the lowest amount of capital stock, output and welfare. Therefore, changing the current pension system of the country to a Full Funded pension system has been proposed as a reformed fiscal policy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - Modeling the Effects of Indirect Taxes on the Welfare of Income Deciles in Iran with the Computable General Equilibrium Application
Akbar Khodabakhshi Saeideh RoustaeiAfter oil revenues, taxes are the second and most important source of government expenditure in Iran's economy. On the other hand, considering the importance of social justice as one of the main goals of the government, the effects of imposing taxes on households are al MoreAfter oil revenues, taxes are the second and most important source of government expenditure in Iran's economy. On the other hand, considering the importance of social justice as one of the main goals of the government, the effects of imposing taxes on households are also very important. Therefore, this research, using a calculable general equilibrium model, seeks to investigate the welfare effects of imposing indirect taxes on different income deciles in Iran. For this purpose, two scenarios have been applied and the reactions of households with different income deciles to these scenarios have been investigated. In the first scenario, a uniform tax was imposed on all goods and services at a rate of five percent and in the second scenario, a tax on food at a zero rate, a tax on some luxury goods at a rate of 14 pecent and a tax on other goods at the same rate of 5 percent. EV index was also used to measure welfare. The results of the model show that the imposition of indirect taxes in the first scenario worsens the welfare of low-income households, while the second scenario improves the welfare of poor households and worsens the welfare of rich households. However, in the first scenario, the GDP was higher than in the second scenario. Therefore, it is recommended to choose a tax policy using an integrated tax system, we will see efficiency and economic justice. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - state dependent values of tax multiplier in iran
negin heidarizadeh sayed.yahya abtahi zohreh tabatabaeinasab mohamadali dehghantaftiChanges in taxes under different conditions of output growth can have completely different macroeconomic effects, and in this regard, some empirical evidence emphasizes the non-linearity and state-dependent effects of fiscal policy. This paper examines the state-depende MoreChanges in taxes under different conditions of output growth can have completely different macroeconomic effects, and in this regard, some empirical evidence emphasizes the non-linearity and state-dependent effects of fiscal policy. This paper examines the state-dependent behavior of tax multiplier in Iran. Accordingly, a threshold model of specification presented by Romer and Romer (2010) is used to examine the coefficients related to the status of tax revenues to examine the effects of fiscal policies on output in the Iranian economy. The results of this study using quarterly data 1369: 02- 1398: 04 show that tax multiplier in low and medium regimes of economic growth is not significant. But the rising tax multiplier in a high-growth regime is quite significant. Also, increasing tax multiplier coefficients become smaller in periods of low economic growth, and these coefficients become larger in periods of high growth than in the entire sample period. Thus, tax policies in good times are quite effective tools, and the results emphasize the role of tax policies as a stabilizing tool by using the "right tool" at the "right time". Thus, although tax policies do not play an effective role during a recession, they can become a very effective tool for stabilizing and sustaining economic growth during a boom. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - Identifying and Determining Factors Affecting the Resilience of the Iranian Banking System
Azadeh Afshari Sara Ghobadi Hosein Sharifi RenaniAccording to the emphasis of the Ball Committee, the survival rate of any economy is proportional to the resilience rate of its banks, and, when economic crises occur, the resilience of banks is too important. Then the purpose of this research is to investigate the indi MoreAccording to the emphasis of the Ball Committee, the survival rate of any economy is proportional to the resilience rate of its banks, and, when economic crises occur, the resilience of banks is too important. Then the purpose of this research is to investigate the indicators of the development of the banking sector that can affect the resilience of the Iranian banking system. Therefore, with the help of previous research, some factors were identified and the data were collected for 30 banks and credit institutions during the years 2000 to 2020 in the form of unbalanced panels. After that, the level of resilience was calculated with the help of the Volare index, and the type of relationships was evaluated with the help of the dynamic data panel method. The results showed that among the 18 indicators investigated as factors affecting the resilience of the Iranian banking system, only 9 factors are nonlinearly related to resilience. Resilience variables of the previous period, banking efficiency, the ratio of Interest-Free Income to total income, and the ratio of low-cost resources to total resources, have a direct relationship with resilience, and the indicators of bank size, shareholders' equity to debt, the ratio of loans to free resources, the ratio of the cost of doubtful loans to total expenses and the level of risk tolerance, had an indirect relationship. Also, private or public banks had no significant relationship with resilience. In conclusion, the resilience process of Iranian banks from 2000 to 2020 was drawn. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - Identification of Stagflation Causes in Iran: A Threshold Error Correction Method
nooshin khani gharieh gapi bahram sahabi firoozeh azizi majid sabagh kermaniStagflation is an economic situation in which both inflation and business activities stagnant will happen at the same time with the increase of unemployment rate in the country. In this study, the causes of stagflation will be identified in the country by Error Correcti MoreStagflation is an economic situation in which both inflation and business activities stagnant will happen at the same time with the increase of unemployment rate in the country. In this study, the causes of stagflation will be identified in the country by Error Correction Method (ECM) and the data of the years 1973-2011. Then, by using Threshold Autoregressive Error Correction Method (TAR-ECM), the researchers try to clear that if the growth of the elements identified will equally affect the stagflation or after a threshold level, the effect can be different. According to the results of linear relationship, indices of payment balances, budget deficit, oil revenues and liquidity are statistically significant and considered as the cause of stagflation in Iran. Also, the results of all nonlinear models estimated in this paper represent when the growth of stagflation causes passed the threshold point, their effect on stagflation will be different. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - The Effect of State Fragility on Iranian Export to Southeast Asian Countries Using Spatial Econometric Approach
Shekoofe Nagheli majid maddah esmael AbounooriAbstract The major aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the state fragility index as institutions represent on Iranian export to Southeast Asian countries. For this purpose, the spatial econometric approach and the mixed regressive-spatial autoregressive mode MoreAbstract The major aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the state fragility index as institutions represent on Iranian export to Southeast Asian countries. For this purpose, the spatial econometric approach and the mixed regressive-spatial autoregressive model was used. Research pattern is a regression model with panel data from Iranian trade with Southeast Asian countries during 2000-2015. The results showed that the effect of the state fragility index variable on Iranian export to Southeast Asian countries is negative and significant. This means that promoting legitimacy and effectiveness in the social, political, and economic and security spheres have positive effect on increasing the export capacities of the country. According to the results, the hypothesis of spatial dependence in the model is confirmed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - The Use of an Endogenous Growth Model to Calculate the Optimal Rate of Value Added Tax with Emphasis on Harmful Products and Waste
Ahmad Jafari Samimi Saeed Karimi Potanlar Kooroush AzamiThe aim of this paper is to calculate the optimal rate of value added tax with emphasis on harmful products and waste and oil revenues using a model of endogenous growth for Iran’s economy. For this purpose, at first, a generalized growth model for three parts inc MoreThe aim of this paper is to calculate the optimal rate of value added tax with emphasis on harmful products and waste and oil revenues using a model of endogenous growth for Iran’s economy. For this purpose, at first, a generalized growth model for three parts including households, firms and government developed. After developing the model and achieving a determiner relationship of the optimal rate of value added tax, using the parameters of Iran’s economy, the model was calibrated and tax optimized values for different scenarios were calculated. The results showed that in the face of declining oil revenues, to remain in a constant situation, optimal rate of value added tax will be increased. More economic growth will increase the tax optimal rate. By increasing social sensitivity to the harmful products and waste, in order to provide optimum conditions for social welfare, the optimal rate of value added tax should be increased. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - آیا شاخص قیمت کشاورزی به نوسانات نرخ ارز در ایران واکنش نشان می دهد؟
محمد عبدی سیّدکلایی امیر منصور طهرانچیان احمد جعفری صمیمی سیّد مجتبی مجاوریاناز آنجایی که برخی از مواد اولیه، کالاهای نیمه­ساخته، واسطه‌ای و سرمایه‌ای در بخش کشاورزی از محل واردات تأمین می‌شوند بنابراین نوسانات نرخ ارز می‌تواند روی قیمت تمام شده محصولات این بخش اثر بگذارد. در سالهای اخیر با نوسانات قابل ملاحظه‌ای در نرخ ارز روبرو بوده‌ایم ک Moreاز آنجایی که برخی از مواد اولیه، کالاهای نیمه­ساخته، واسطه‌ای و سرمایه‌ای در بخش کشاورزی از محل واردات تأمین می‌شوند بنابراین نوسانات نرخ ارز می‌تواند روی قیمت تمام شده محصولات این بخش اثر بگذارد. در سالهای اخیر با نوسانات قابل ملاحظه‌ای در نرخ ارز روبرو بوده‌ایم که تأثیر بسزایی بر همه بخش‌ها و از جمله بخش کشاورزی داشته است. نرخ ارز از طریق افزایش قیمت واردات مواد اولیه کشاورزی بر افزایش قیمت محصولات کشاورزی مؤثر است. به عبارت دیگر، کاهش عرضه داخلی به دلیل تحریک صادرات محصولات کشاورزی ناشی از افزایش نرخ ارز رابطه فوق را تقویت می‌کند. در این پژوهش، تأثیر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر شاخص قیمت در بخش کشاورزی ایران با استفاده از روش گارچ چند متغیره مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج به دست آمده نشان می‌دهند که در سطح معنی‌داری یک درصد، تکانه‌های گذشته نرخ ارز اثر مثبت روی شاخص قیمت بخش کشاورزی دارد. علاوه‌بر این، به‌رغم اینکه نوسانات جاری شاخص قیمت بخش کشاورزی از نوسانات گذشته خود تأثیر نمی‌پذیرد اما نوسانات گذشته نرخ ارز اثر مثبت بر نوسانات جاری نرخ ارز دارد. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - وضعیت گردشگری روستایی و اقتصاد گردشگری در ایران
فریده عظیمی ساموئل آوتسیاندر این مقاله محققین سعی کرده­اند تا تحقیقی را در زمینه وضعیت گردشگری و گردشگری روستایی در ایران، وضعیت ورود و خروج توریست در ایران و همین­طور عوامل بازدارنده بر اثرات مثبت اقتصادی گردشگری و گردشگری روستایی بر اقتصاد ایران انجام دهند. برای دستیابی به این اه Moreدر این مقاله محققین سعی کرده­اند تا تحقیقی را در زمینه وضعیت گردشگری و گردشگری روستایی در ایران، وضعیت ورود و خروج توریست در ایران و همین­طور عوامل بازدارنده بر اثرات مثبت اقتصادی گردشگری و گردشگری روستایی بر اقتصاد ایران انجام دهند. برای دستیابی به این اهداف از روش تحقیق اسنادی و همین­طور برای یافتن عوامل بازدارنده بر اثرات مثبت اقتصادی گردشگری و گردشگری روستایی بر اقتصاد ایران از یافته­های پرسشنامه­ای استفاده کرده­اند. جامعه آماری در این تحقیق مسئولین مرتبط با گردشگری و گردشگری روستایی بوده و نمونه آماری شامل 119 نفر از این افراد می­باشند. روش آماری مورد استفاده روش آماری ناپارامتری و استفاده از آزمون کولموگروف- سمیرنوف می­باشد. یافته­های تحقیق حاکی از آن است که درصد سهم ایران از گردشگری در تولید ناخالص داخلی در سالهای 2014 – 2003 خیلی کم بوده و تغییرات آن در این سالها از هیچ تناسبی برخوردار نیست. هیچ اطلاعات و آمار دقیقی در زمینه گردشگری روستایی و گردشگران روستایی در ایران وجود ندارد. پنج اولویت اول در زمینه عوامل بازدارنده بر اثرات مثبت اقتصادی گردشگری و گردشگری روستایی بر اقتصاد ایران شامل: کمبود سیاستگذاری­ها و برنامه­های کلان در زمینه گردشگری و گردشگری روستایی، هماهنگی ضعیف بین دولت، بخش خصوصی و مردم محلی در برنامه­ریزی و مدیریت پروژه­های گردشگری و گردشگری روستایی، تغییرات مدیریتی مکرر در سازمان میراث فرهنگی و گردشگری ایران، عدم وجود معیارهای صحیح برای انتخاب مدیران و مدیران اجرایی، و اثرات تحریم­ها بر برنامه­های گردشگری می­باشند. علاوه بر این، اثرات عوامل سیاسی نیز در ارتباط با وضعیت اقتصاد گردشگری در ایران مهم هستند. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - Investigating the relationship between financial shocks and business cycles of Iran's economy during the period (1981-2021)
Mohammad Hassan Fotros Mostafa OmidaliFactors such as expectations, lack of financial flexibility, the existence of uncertainties in the economic environment and other economic and non-economic indicators have an impact on the creation of business cycles. The large volume of government activities in Iran's MoreFactors such as expectations, lack of financial flexibility, the existence of uncertainties in the economic environment and other economic and non-economic indicators have an impact on the creation of business cycles. The large volume of government activities in Iran's economy indicates that the government has a fundamental influence on the stability and instability of business cycles in Iran. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the relationship between financial shocks and commercial periods of the Iranian economy during the period 1981-2021. First, by using Hadrick-Prescott filter method, business cycles of Iran's GDP are extracted, and by using VAR model, the causality relationship between financial shocks and business cycles is studied. The research results show that Iran's economy has experienced five periods of recession and five periods of prosperity during the studied period. These courses are symmetrical in terms of length and depth. The results of the VAR model show that there is a two-way causality relationship between the government expenditure shock and the tax shock with the business cycles of GDP. Therefore, the economic prosperity can reduce the financial shocks of the government and subsequently improve the budget forecast and reduce the budget deficit. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - The Causal Analysis of Relationship between Inflation Rate and Unemployment in Iran (The case study of Philip’s curve)
تیمور محمدی عباسعلی ابونوری رویا محمدنژادAbstract The high unemployment rate is one of the chronically problems in Iranian Economy. There is a large gap between natural and nominal rate of unemployment in Iran. In the recent years, the policy makers tried to decrease and control unemployment rate by undertaki MoreAbstract The high unemployment rate is one of the chronically problems in Iranian Economy. There is a large gap between natural and nominal rate of unemployment in Iran. In the recent years, the policy makers tried to decrease and control unemployment rate by undertaking monetary policies, but the outcome of such policies has increased the inflation rate significantly especially during 1979 up to 2009 .In this paper, we tested the relationship between inflation and unemployment rates based on Philip’s curve hypothesis. Our estimation in form of two models separately, shows that, there is significant relationship between inflation wage rates in current period with previous one. In addition, the rate of inflation in each period is a function of productions level and wage rate. Also, the previous level of inflation has influenced current level of inflation rate significantly. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
27 - برآورد اندازه اقتصاد زیرزمینی در ایران و بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر آن
هانیه علیزاده فرهاد غفاری -
Open Access Article
28 - آثار درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران مبتنی بر شکست‌های ساختاری درون زا
محسن مهرآرا -
Open Access Article
29 - An Analisis of Leading indicators for the Irans Economy
Esfandiar. Jahangard Alireza. FarhadikiaEffectively predicting cyclical movements in the economy is a major challenge. In this paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Iranian economy. Our evaluation is based on using the annual and seasonal variables trend. For this purpose, MoreEffectively predicting cyclical movements in the economy is a major challenge. In this paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Iranian economy. Our evaluation is based on using the annual and seasonal variables trend. For this purpose, we introduce a model based on NBER approach to estimate leading and coincident indicators covering the period 1367:Q1-1386:Q4.We apply ARMA models for the forecasting of leading and coincident indicators for the period 1387:Q1-1388Q4.The forecasting results show that the will be decline of leading and coincident macroeconomic indicators in 1387 in Iran economy Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
30 - بررسی پایداری مالی و شوکهای مالی گذرا در اقتصاد ایران
علی فلاحتی شهرام فتاحی علی حیدری دیزگرانی نعیم شکری -
Open Access Article
31 - America's Exit from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and Turbulence in Iran's economy
Amir Sajedi Sinaz Sajedi SajediMany people and companies make their own financial decisions on the bases of the changing and evolving political developments. In this paper we try to examine two major events, presidential election in the USA and American exit from JCPOA with their effects on the Irani MoreMany people and companies make their own financial decisions on the bases of the changing and evolving political developments. In this paper we try to examine two major events, presidential election in the USA and American exit from JCPOA with their effects on the Iranian economy. For this we shalll use two methods, Multiple GARCH (DCC Model) and Analysis Variance methods. By using DCC model in this work, we show that the volatility spillover of the exchange price (US Dollar in the Free Market) has a direct impact on the overall Tehran Stock Exchange index. And by using of Varyance Analytical method we have shown the severity of this volatility spillover which was measured before and after the US election. As a result of this study one may say that due to Iran's dependency on oil export, any major political development in Iran has great impact on the Iran's economy index. Therefore, in making financial and investment decisions in Iran, all the companies consider the political conditions of the country and also the prediction of any changes in the effects of political developments. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
32 - Modeling of exchange rate fluctuations with systems dynamics approach
mohammad hadi damiri parviz saeedi Hosein Didehkhani ebrahim abbasiAbstract The purpose of this research is Modeling of exchange rate fluctuations with systems dynamics approach. In this research, all the factors affecting the exchange rate have been identified and evaluated their systemic relationships. First, the trend and the exchan MoreAbstract The purpose of this research is Modeling of exchange rate fluctuations with systems dynamics approach. In this research, all the factors affecting the exchange rate have been identified and evaluated their systemic relationships. First, the trend and the exchange rate price were predicted using the system dynamics from 2004 to 2022 , and the results were compared with the trend and real exchange rate of the exchange rate. The results show that the exchange rate trend over the 19-year period has always been with a slight upward slope, but during the years 2012 -2013 and 2018-2017 there was a sharp rise in price and slope that is exactly the same as the real exchange rate trend. Also, comparing the exchange rate data to the market price and the expected exchange rate until 2018 shows that this model has been able to accurately assess the trend and predict possible failures. Key word: Exchange rate, system dynamics, forecast, trend. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
33 - Nonlinear Exchange Rate Analysis in the Iranian Economy
Mohammad abbasifard Seyed Abdolhamid Sabet Masoud Salehi Rezveh abdolkarim hosseinpourExchange rate pass-through (ERPT) means the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic prices. The study of the relation between the exchange rate and the general level of domestic prices, known in the international financial literature as the exchange rate analys MoreExchange rate pass-through (ERPT) means the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic prices. The study of the relation between the exchange rate and the general level of domestic prices, known in the international financial literature as the exchange rate analysis, has been one of the most important and fundamental topics in the economic literature. This study investigates the nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in the Iranian economy in the period 1984 to 2019 using the Markov switching method. The results show that in the period under review, for a one percent increase in the exchange rate, the inflation rate increases by 74 percent. In other words, transfer to prices is not complete and exchange rate transition in the Iranian economy is incomplete. The imperfection of the exchange rate passage is due to the fact that the price of imported goods is probably not only a function of the exchange rate, but also other factors have contributed to the fluctuation of these prices. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
34 - The Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Policies Shocks on Trade Balance in Iran (The Application of Structural VAR)
Majid Maddah Elham RastegarniaTrade balance influences macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate and national income. The continuous positive balance leads to more entrance of currency and increasing GNP and also, continuous negative balance leads to outflow of currency and decreasing GNP. The MoreTrade balance influences macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate and national income. The continuous positive balance leads to more entrance of currency and increasing GNP and also, continuous negative balance leads to outflow of currency and decreasing GNP. The fiscal policy tools and government budget situation can be effective on trade balance. In this paper, the effect of shocks from government expenditures and taxes on trade balance in Iran has been studied empirically using structural vector autoregressive regression (SVAR) method. The results from estimated model show that i) there is a negative and significant relationship between shocks from government expenditures and trade balance in Iran. This finding indicates that a positive shock from government expenditures will get worse the status of trade balance ii) the positive and significant relationship between trade balance and tax burden is confirmed that show more tax burden improve trade balance through limit import. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
35 - Estimation of Crowding out and in Effects in Iran's Economy by Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model
N. Yarmohammadian B. Sadeghi S. MoeeniAs far as government intervention in economics has argued during the economic history as a basic discussion so influence measure of government on private sector has been a contention subject in so many economic articles. “How is the public sector r MoreAs far as government intervention in economics has argued during the economic history as a basic discussion so influence measure of government on private sector has been a contention subject in so many economic articles. “How is the public sector relation with private sector performance?” has been a title in many economic articles in different areas. One influence is on the private investment measures. Can government influence on private investment with increasing itself expenditure? We estimated the private investment function with separating our government expenditures into two parts as investment and consumption expenditures. Our empirical results shows that government consumption expenditures as increases lead to outgoing private investment from the market (government investment expenditure crowds out private investment) and increasing government investment expenditures of public sector arise private sector investment as a result(crowds in private investment). At last we tested all variables to make sure our regressions are not spurious. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
36 - بررسی ارتباط میان درآمد و مخارج دولت در ایران
عباسعلی رضایی
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