An Analisis of Leading indicators for the Irans Economy

Subject Areas : Financial Economics

Esfandiar. Jahangard ¹ , Alireza. Farhadikia ²

1 - Assistant Professor ,University of Allameh Tabatabaei
2 - M.A in Economics, Economic Expert of MPO, Bureau of Macroeconomic

Received: 2015-06-14 Accepted : 2015-06-14 Published : 2008-03-20

Keywords: Iran, forecasting, Leading and coincident Indicators, Business cycle,

Abstract :

Effectively predicting cyclical movements in the economy is a major challenge. In this paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Iranian economy. Our evaluation is based on using the annual and seasonal variables trend. For this purpose, we introduce a model based on NBER approach to estimate leading and coincident indicators covering the period 1367:Q1-1386:Q4.We apply ARMA models for the forecasting of leading and coincident indicators for the period 1387:Q1-1388Q4.The forecasting results show that the will be decline of leading and coincident macroeconomic indicators in 1387 in Iran economy