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Open Access Article
1 - This study aimed to identify and prioritize the uncertainties in Iranian equestrian sports using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach. The research was applied in purpose and utilized a mixed-methods design (qualitative and quantitative). In the qualitative phase, thematic analysis was employed, while the quantitative phase applied the AHP method. Participants included 36 equestrian sports experts selected purposefully based on their expertise. Data collection involved semi-structured interviews in the qualitative phase and pairwise comparison questionnaires in the quantitative phase, which were designed based on qualitative findings. In the qualitative phase, trustworthiness criteria such as credibility, transferability, dependability, and confirmability were utilized to evaluate data quality, while face validity and test-retest reliability were applied in the quantitative phase. Data analysis was conducted using Expert Choice software version 11. Findings revealed 36 uncertainties in Iranian equestrian sports, categorized into two main groups: cognitive and normative uncertainties. Within cognitive uncertainties, the extinction of Iranian horse breeds emerged as the top priority and the most critical uncertainty, requiring urgent attention and action. International isolation and sanctions ranked as subsequent key uncertainties due to their profound implications for the sport's future. On the normative side, the federation's budget and attracting sponsors were identified as the most significant challenges, emphasizing the need for sustained financial resources and support. Limited access to international events and customs-related issues were also highlighted as critical factors impacting the global development and participation in equestrian sports. The results indicate that managing uncertainties in Iranian equestrian sports necessitates a comprehensive and systematic approach addressing both cognitive and normative dimensions. Policymakers and equestrian sports managers are recommended to use these findings as a foundation for developing long-term strategies.
Ali-Mohammad Safania zeinablsadat seyedabdollahi seyed salahedin naghshbandy, mohsen bagrian farah abadi
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