نقش شوک‌های نااطمینانی‌ مالی، مدل پنج عاملی فاما_ فرنچ و مومنتوم در بازار سرمایه و تأثیرات آن بر بازده سهام

محورهای موضوعی : حسابداری مالی و حسابرسی

سیده نرجس شیرمردی ¹ , مجید صامتی ² , حسین شریفی رنانی ³

1 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران
2 - گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران
3 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1402/09/15 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/11/08 تاریخ انتشار : 1403/01/01

کلید واژه: بازار سرمایه, بازده سهام, ریسک سیستماتیک و غیر سیستماتیک, مدل پنج عاملی فاما و فرنچ- مومنتوم, واژه‌های کلیدی: نااطمینانی,

چکیده مقاله :

چکیده هدف از این مقاله بررسی نقش شوک های نااطمینانی مالی، نااطمینانی اقتصادی، نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی به عنوان ریسک سیستماتیک و مدل پنج عاملی فاما و فرنچ به همراه مومنتوم به عنوان ریسک غیر سیستماتیک در بازار سرمایه کشور امریکا و اثرات کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت آن بر بازده سهام (شاخص اس اند پی بورس نیویورک) با استفاده از الگوی خودبازگشت برداری ساختاری و داده های فصلی می باشد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که در کوتاه مدت بیشترین تأثیر شوک های منفی به ترتیب ناشی از متغیرهایی همچون بازده سهام، عامل سودآوری، تفاوت میانگین بازده پرتفوی سهام شرکت های کوچک و پرتفوی سهام شرکت های بزرگ و مومنتوم می باشد. همچنین نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی در کوتاه‌مدت شوک مثبتی بر بازده سهام داشته است. لذا متغیرهای نااطمینانی اقتصادی و نااطمینانی مالی نیز همانند سایر عوامل ریسک غیر سیستماتیک تقریبا به یک اندازه و بصورت منفی بر بازده سهام تأثیرگذار بوده اند. در بلندمدت نیز بیشترین تأثیر شوک های منفی به ترتیب ناشی از متغیرهایی همچون نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی، بازده سهام، نااطمینانی اقتصادی و عامل سرمایه گذاری بوده است. در بلندمدت بیشترین تأثیر شوک های مثبت به ترتیب ناشی از متغیرهایی همچون تفاوت میانگین بازده پرتفوی سهام شرکت های کوچک و پرتفوی سهام شرکت های بزرگ، تفاوت میانگین بازده پرتفوی سهام شرکت هایی با نسبت ارزش دفتری به ارزش بازار بالا و پرتفوی سهام شرکت هایی با نسبت ارزش دفتری به ارزش بازار پایین، عامل سودآوری، مومنتوم، نسبت نرخ بازده بازار و نرخ بازده بدون ریسک و در نهایت نااطمینانی مالی بوده است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Abstract The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of financial uncertainty, economic uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty as a systematic risk and the fama french five factor model along with Momentum as a unsystematic risk in the US capital market and short-term and long-term effects on stock returns (S&P New York Stock Exchange Index) Using a structural vector autoregressive model Quarterly data. The results show that in the short run, the greatest impact of negative shocks, respectively, due to variables such as stock returns, profitability factor, small minus big (SMB) and momentum respectively. Economic policy uncertainty has also had a positive short-term shock to stock returns. Therefore, the variables of economic uncertainty and financial uncertainty, like other Unsystematic risk factors, have almost equally and negatively affected stock returns. In the long run, the greatest impact of negative shocks was due to variables such as economic policy uncertainty, stock returns, economic uncertainty and investment factor, respectively. In the long run, the greatest impact of positive shocks is due to variables such as Small Minus Big (SMB), High Minus Low (HML), profitability factor, momentum, Market portfolio return ratio and risk free rate of return and finally financial uncertainty.

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