The Role of Financial Uncertainty Shocks, Fama French Five Factor Model and Momentum in the Capital Market and Its Effects on Stock Returns
Subject Areas :
Seyedeh Narges Shirmardi
1
,
Majid Sameti
2
,
Hossein Sharifi Renan
3
1 - Department of Economics, Isfahan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
2 - Department of Economics, Isfahan University, Isfahan, Iran (corresponding author
3 - Department of Economics, Isfahan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
Received: 2023-12-06
Accepted : 2024-01-28
Published : 2024-03-20
Keywords:
Capital Market,
Stock Returns,
Keywords: uncertainty,
Systematic and Unsystematic Risk,
Fama and French Five Factor Model- Momentum,
Abstract :
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of financial uncertainty, economic uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty as a systematic risk and the fama french five factor model along with Momentum as a unsystematic risk in the US capital market and short-term and long-term effects on stock returns (S&P New York Stock Exchange Index) Using a structural vector autoregressive model Quarterly data. The results show that in the short run, the greatest impact of negative shocks, respectively, due to variables such as stock returns, profitability factor, small minus big (SMB) and momentum respectively. Economic policy uncertainty has also had a positive short-term shock to stock returns. Therefore, the variables of economic uncertainty and financial uncertainty, like other Unsystematic risk factors, have almost equally and negatively affected stock returns. In the long run, the greatest impact of negative shocks was due to variables such as economic policy uncertainty, stock returns, economic uncertainty and investment factor, respectively. In the long run, the greatest impact of positive shocks is due to variables such as Small Minus Big (SMB), High Minus Low (HML), profitability factor, momentum, Market portfolio return ratio and risk free rate of return and finally financial uncertainty.
References:
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