Reading the drivers affecting the future state of urban resilience against environmental hazards (Case study: District 5 of Tehran metropolis)

Subject Areas : Urban Futurology

اسماعیل علی اکبری ¹ , شاه بختی رستمی ² , mohamad vahabi ³

1 - Professor of Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
2 - Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Payam Noor University, Iran.
3 - Ph. D. of Geography and Urban Planning, Payam Noor University, Iran.

Received: 2023-02-08 Accepted : 2023-04-02 Published : 2023-02-20

Keywords: Structural analysis, resilience, Tehran metropolis, Mic Mac, District 5,

Abstract :

Urban resilience, which is one of the key dimensions of sustainable development in the sense of "the ability and readiness of the city to respond and recover against significant threats, changes, risks and hazards with minimal damage to public safety and health, society, economy and security" defined. In this regard, this article has tried to recognize and cluster the drivers affecting the future state of resilience of the 5th district of Tehran against environmental hazards using the method of structural analysis. In terms of practical purpose, this research is a combination of documentary and survey methods, and in terms of nature, it is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science, which has been carried out by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The statistical population is 20 urban experts based on snowball sampling. 53 propellants were counted and identified, which were processed by structural interaction analysis method in MICMAC software. The results of the article show that the general distribution pattern of the propellants studied, in terms of mutual effects analysis, indicates the state of an unstable environmental system in which the resilient propellants of region 5 are in a complex and intermediate state in terms of effectiveness and effectiveness. has it. Citizens' level of awareness of environmental hazards, monitoring during construction, access to relief agencies, integrity of management at the time of crisis, education and information about earthquake hazards, households' attitude and belief regarding the existence of the risk of disasters and natural disasters, building quality (resistance building), building density, intertextual permeability, social participation, reviving economic activities after disasters and state and local institutional support to compensate for financial damage as the key drivers affecting the future resilience of the 5 mega-regions The city of Tehran was chosen.