List of Articles ابوالقاسم گلخندان

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  1 - Globalization; Opportunity or Threat for Health? (A case Study of Iran)
  ابوالقاسم گل خندان مهدی رستمی
  Introduction: Health sector has been considerably affected by globalization, despite its public and non-commercial nature. Globalization can directly effect on health through the removal of customs barriers, the creation of common markets, growth and income distribution More

  Introduction: Health sector has been considerably affected by globalization, despite its public and non-commercial nature. Globalization can directly effect on health through the removal of customs barriers, the creation of common markets, growth and income distribution and; In addition, globalization can affect the field of health through several factors such as its impact on culture and customs. So, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of globalization on health in Iran. Methods: This study is paid to study dynamic long-term and short-term relationship between health indicators, globalization Indexes, per capita income and per capita physician, by using time series data from 1979-2011. For this purpose is used the bounds co integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model. Also,the statistical analyzes were performed using software Eviews and Microfit. Results: Based on the results of the ARDL model, total globalization, economic globalization, social globalization, income per capita and per capita physician; improve health indicators in the short-term and long-term, while the influence of political globalization on health indicators is meaningless in the short-term and long-term. One percent increase in the index of total globalization, increases the life expectancy in the short-term and long-term, respectively, 0.03 and 0.14 percent and decreasesthe mortality rateofchildren under 5 years in the short-term and long-term, respectively 0.07 and 0.29 percent. Conclusion: The results indicate that economic globalization is remarkable compared to other aspects of globalization, health indicators improved; therefore, move towards an open economy can be effective in promoting public health. Manuscript profile
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  2 - Robust Determinants of Health Sector Costs in Iran: Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
  moohamad Alizadeh abolghasem Golkhandan
  Introduction: Identify of factors that influence on health costs can be useful in determine the best policy to control and manage the health costs. Previous studies in this area has been done with assumption the certainty of model; While the lack of attention to the pro More

  Introduction: Identify of factors that influence on health costs can be useful in determine the best policy to control and manage the health costs. Previous studies in this area has been done with assumption the certainty of model; While the lack of attention to the problem of model uncertainty can lead to bias and lack of performance in estimation of parameters that result is inappropriate forecasts and incorrect statistical inference. So, the main objective of this study is identify the robust determinants of health sector costs in Iran under uncertainty of model. Methods: This study uses the statistical data of 22 variables that affect health sector costs based on theoretical and empirical studies, is paid to identify the robust determinants of these costs in Iran during 1979-2013. For this purpose is used the Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) approach (due to favorable characteristics for the assumption of model uncertainty). Also, the statistical analyzes were performed using the R software. Results: estimation of 40000 regression and Bayesian averaging from the coefficients shows that per capita income with the possibility of 0.98 and coefficient of 0.70, urbanization rate with the possibility of 0.93 and coefficient of 1.25, per capita public health costs with the possibility of 0.83 and coefficient of 0.29, dependency ratio with the possibility of 0.50 and coefficient of 0.27, physician per capita with the possibility of 0.49 and coefficient of 0.20 and the unemployment rate with the possibility of 0.38 and coefficient of -0.07, are non-fragile and robust variables. Conclusion: The results indicate that the most important determinants of health sector costs in Iran are respectively: per capita income, urbanization rate, per capita public health costs, dependency ratio, physician per capita and unemployment rate. The effect of all these variables on per capita health sector costs in the long run are sure and strong.   Manuscript profile
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  3 - Offering and Testing a Model to Explain the Physician Induced Demand in Iran
  Abvalqasem Golkhandan Elaham Fatholahi
  Introduction: According to the physician induced demand hypothesis, health care demand may be due to asymmetric information in health market, is influenced by the behavior of health suppliers. This study first assumes that the number of physician reduced health expendit More

  Introduction: According to the physician induced demand hypothesis, health care demand may be due to asymmetric information in health market, is influenced by the behavior of health suppliers. This study first assumes that the number of physician reduced health expenditures, because of the increase the supply of health. But to achieve a specified level of physician, called threshold level, because of the physician induced demand hypothesis, competition between physicians, is leading to an increase in health spending. So, the major aim of this study is to evaluate the U shape hypothesis between the number of physicians and health expenditures in Iran. Methods: This study using time series data for 1971-2013, is investigated the possible non-linear relationship between per capita health expenditure (dependent variable), per capita physician (independent variable) and mortality rate (controlled variable). For this purpose, is used the Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) model. Also, the statistical analyzes were performed using the EXCEL, EVIEWS and JMALTI soft wares. Results: The results of the model LSTR, in addition to confirm the nonlinear effects of per capita physician on per capita health expenditure, show that the per capita physician per 10,000 population, influence on the per capita health expenditure in the form of two regime structure with threshold level about of 12.24. So that, in the first regime, per capita physician had a negative impact on per capita health expenditure (disapproval the induced demand hypothesis), but this impact is positive in the second regime (confirm the induced demand hypothesis). So, U-shaped impact hypothesis of per capita physician on per capita health expenditure in Iran, is not rejected. Conclusion: Since at the moment the physician per capita per 10,000 population, is most of the threshold level, the country is located in the second regime. Accordingly, adopt more suitable policies to prevent from the induction of demand by physicians, is necessary. Introduction: This study first assumes that the number of physician reduced health expenditures, because of the increase the supply of health. But to achieve a specified level of physician, called threshold level, because of the physician induced demand hypothesis, competition between physicians, is leading to an increase in health spending. So, The major aim of this study is to evaluate the U shape hypothesis between the number of physicians and health expenditures in Iran.Methods: This study using time series data for 1971-2013, is investigated the possible non-linear relationship between per capita health expenditure (dependent variable), per capita physician (independent variable) and mortality rate (controlled variable). For this purpose, is used the Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) model. Also, the statistical analyzes were performed using the EXCEL, EVIEWS and JMALTI soft wares.Results: The results of the model LSTR, in addition to confirm the nonlinear effects of per capita physician on per capita health expenditure, show that the per capita physician per 10,000 population, influence on the per capita health expenditure in the form of two regime structure with threshold level about of 12.24. So that, In the first regime, per capita physician had a negative impact on per capita health expenditure (disapproval the induced demand hypothesis), but this impact is positive in the second regime (confirm the induced demand hypothesis). Conclusion: Since at the moment the physician per capita per 10,000 population, is most of the threshold level, The country is located in the second regime. Manuscript profile
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  4 - The Prediction of Iran's Per Capita Health Expenditures up to 2041 Horizon Using the Genetic and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms
  abolghasem golkhandan Somayeh Sahraei
  Introduction: prediction the per capita health expenditures can be useful and effective in determining the best policies for financing and managing of health expenditures. Accordingly, the main objective of this study was to predict the per capita health expenditures tr More

  Introduction: prediction the per capita health expenditures can be useful and effective in determining the best policies for financing and managing of health expenditures. Accordingly, the main objective of this study was to predict the per capita health expenditures trend in Iran. Methods: In this paper, we specified a health expenditure model relying on theoretical basics in order to obtain desirable forecasts. On the basis of three forms of linear, exponential and quadratic equations and using theoretical foundations in the field of per capita health expenditure function, we used genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to simulate Iranians per capita health expenditure during 1979-2015. Then we selected the superior model in terms of prediction power criteria and forecast per capita health expenditure until 2041. Also, the statistical analyzes were performed using the MATLAB software version R2016b. Results: The predicted results indicate that per capita health expenditures in Iran will increase with a positive slope by 2041. The amount of this expenditure will be from $ 1081 (based on 2011 constant prices) in 2015 to $ 2628 in 2041 (about 2.5 times). Conclusion: With regard to the projected amount of per capita health expenditures up to 2041 horizon, policy makers in the health sector should take the necessary measures to finance the expenditures of this sector. Manuscript profile
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  5 - Estimating the Crowding-Out Effect of Defense Expenditures on Public Health Expenditures in Countries with Different Income Groups
  Sahebe Mohammadian Mansour abolghasem golkhandan
  10.30495/jhm.2022.69882.11071
  Introduction: An increase in the share of defense expenditures from the total public expenditures may have a negative effect on the share of public health expenditures from the total public expenditures due to the concept of opportunity cost and through the crowding-out More

  Introduction: An increase in the share of defense expenditures from the total public expenditures may have a negative effect on the share of public health expenditures from the total public expenditures due to the concept of opportunity cost and through the crowding-out effect. The intensity of this effect can change according to the income level. Based on this, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures in countries with different income groups.Methods: The present descriptive-analytical and applied study using the panel data of 90 countries of the world (including Iran) during the period of 2000-2018, to estimate the crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures by separating the studied countries into three income groups including low and below average income, above average income countries and high income countries, and also to examine the cross-sectional effect of defense expenditures and per capita income on public health expenditures in all sample countries. The data used were also collected from the World Health Organization database, World Development Indicators belonging to the World Bank and SIPRI. Also, the models were estimated in the form of dynamic panel data using stationery and panel cointegration analyzes and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) in Eviews10.0 software.Results: The results show that the crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures in terms of elasticity and for countries with low and below average income, countries with above average income and countries with high income are equivalent to -0.654, -0.453 and -0.316 respectively. The cross-sectional effect of defense expenditures and per capita income on public health expenditures of all the studied countries is also positive and equal to 0.112.Conclusion: The (negative) crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures is confirmed for all countries with different income groups; But with the increase in per capita income, this crowding-out effect decreases exponentially. Based on this, it is necessary to adopt the necessary policies to ensure security without spending high defense expenditures, especially in countries with low per capita income, in order to prevent the reduction of public health expenses. Manuscript profile
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  6 - The Effect of Positive and Negative Public Health Expenditure Shocks during Business Cycles on Health Status in Iran
  Azadeh Jahantabi Nejad abolghasem golkhandan
  10.30495/jhm.2023.72293.11113
  Introduction: The impact of positive and negative shocks or the asymmetric impact of public health expenditures during periods of recession and boom (business cycles) on health status is of particular importance in terms of making appropriate decisions in the field of c More

  Introduction: The impact of positive and negative shocks or the asymmetric impact of public health expenditures during periods of recession and boom (business cycles) on health status is of particular importance in terms of making appropriate decisions in the field of controlling the vulnerability of the lower classes of society in these periods. Based on this, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the asymmetric effect of public health expenditures on the health status in Iran during periods of recession and boom. Methods: The present descriptive-analytical and applied study using the time series data during the period of 1979-2020, investigated the long-term effects of positive and negative public health expenditures shocks during business cycles, per capita income and physician per capita on the death rate of children under 5 years and life expectancy. Filtering approach and three filters HP, BK and CF have been used to identify business cycles. Also, the models were estimated in the form of a regression model using the Non-linear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) method in Eviews 12.0 software.Results: The results show that the public health expenditure had a pro-cyclical behavior during the period under review. In the long-term, the effect of negative public health expenditure shocks during business cycles on weakening health indicators is greater than the effect of its positive shocks on strengthening health indicators (confirmation of asymmetric effect). Also, the impact of positive and negative shocks on public health expenditures during periods of economic recession is greater than during periods of economic boom. With a 1% decrease in public health expenditures during periods of economic recession, the death rate of children under 5 years increases by 0.17% and the life expectancy decreases by 0.13%.Conclusion: Based on the results of this research, it is recommended to increase public health expenditures during periods of economic recession in order to reduce the vulnerability of the lower classes of society. But, considering the pro-cyclical behavior of public health expenditures, it is necessary to adopt policies and solutions to reduce the intensity of this behavior. Manuscript profile