Background and objectives: Among the 37 important challenges of the world, climate change, desertification, and lack of fresh water are three main challenges against the human in the 21th century. In this research, the ESAs model was used to assess the impact of climate
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Background and objectives: Among the 37 important challenges of the world, climate change, desertification, and lack of fresh water are three main challenges against the human in the 21th century. In this research, the ESAs model was used to assess the impact of climate change on the desertification hazard in the Esfarayen-Sabzevar region in three periods of 1981-1992, 1993-2004, and 2005-2016.Material and Methodology: Due to the inappropriate data and distribution of the meteorological stations of the region, reanalyzed data of the ERA-Interim and 12 meteorological stations of the region were used. The climate data related to the Esfarayen -Sabzevar region are available as 53 cells with the dimensions of 0.125 × 0.125 degrees. At the first step, daily climate data for the period of 1979-2016 were received using the web interfaces, Python script, and also ECMWF WebAPI and then the data were extracted for each of the cells. ArcGIS software was used to export the received NetCDF data in the data base format (dbf) for 53 cells. Drought consistency for the study period was computed using R software through SPI index. After preparing base maps of precipitation, aridity, and drought for three study periods, desertification hazard was provided using the modeling tool of the ArcGIS software based on the ESAs model.Findings: Results indicated that use of the integrated (reanalyzed and observed) data led to increasing the NSE coefficient to the value of 1 as well as the values of bias and RMSE were decreased respectively from 0.39 to 0.24 and 6.69 to 0.32. In the 36- year study period, precipitation has decreased more than 10 mm in the entire region and the temperature has increased nearly 2 degrees that the impacts of these changes on the desertification hazard were assessed. So that, in the second period, C1 was replaced with F2 class and in the third period, C3 was replaced with C1.Discussion and conclusion: As a result, it can be said that climate change in three periods has led to increasing the desertification hazard in the Esfarayen-Sabzevar Region.
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