ارائه یک مدل دینامیک ارزیابی طرحهای کسب و کار در شرایط عدم قطعیت با رویکرد توسعه محصولات جدید
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریتامیر بهرامی پور 1 , صادق عابدی 2 , علیرضا ایرج پور 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد قزوین، قزوین، ایران.
2 - نویسنده مسئول، استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد قزوین، قزوین، ایران.آدرس پست الکترونیکی: abedi.sadegh@gmail.com
3 - استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد قزوین، قزوین، ایران.
کلید واژه: پویایی سیستم, کلمات کلیدی: توسعه کسب و کار, توسعه محصولات جدید, تصمیم گیری فازی مردد,
چکیده مقاله :
چکید هتاکنون پژوهشهای مختلفی د ر مورد توسعه محصولا ت جدید مبتنی بر نوآوری انجام شد ه است. همچنین افزایش وجود دارد، مشاهده می شود. اما با توجه به بررسی رویکرد سیستمی قابل توجهی د ر مطالعاتی که د ر آن مفهوم پژوهشهای پیشین تصمیم گیری در فضای مردد جهت انتخاب متغیرهای برونزای مدل توسعه کسب و کا ر مبتنی بر توسعه محصولا ت جدید مشاهده نگردید. مساله اصلی در این تحقیق، بررسی و یافتن عوامل موثر بر امکان سنجی طرحهای توسعه محصول جدید و در نهایت به دست آوردن روشی برای ارزیابی طرح های توسعه محصول جدید در صنعت مورد مطالعه می باشد. در ارزیابی طرح های اقتصادی معمولا پارامترها را قطعی در نظر می گیرند، اما بررسی عد م قطعیت ا ز اهمیت قابل ملاحظه ای برخوردا ر است. نتایج نشان می دهد 6 متغیر برونزا به عنوان متغیرهای کلیدی در انتخاب و توسعه محصول جدید در سازمان انتخاب گردید.در این پژوهش برای تعیین اهمیت متغیرهای برونزا که خبرگان در مشخص نمودن میزان اهمیت آ نها تردید دارند، از تکنیک تحلیل فازی مردد استفاده شده است. اهمیت وزنی متغیرهای برونزا عبارت است ا ز: سهم پذیرش محصول جدید،) در بازا ر) 0.275 (، اطمینا ن سرمایهگذا ری توسعه محصول جدید) 0.239 (، استراتژی توسعه محصول جدید ) 0.209 سطح پاس کردن استاندارد و الزاما ت ) 0.136 (، جذب بودجه تحقیقا ت توسعه محصولی) 0.077 ( و جذب بودجه تحقیقات کاربردی ) 0.061 (. مدل توسعه محصول پویا، که مبتنی بر رابطه علت و معلولی است، طراحی و در مطالعات آتی نیا ز به آزمون شبیه سازی عملکرد تصمیم گیری حا ل و آینده دارد.
AbstractVarious researches have been done on the development of new products based oninnovation. There is also a significant increase in studies in which there is aconcept of "systemic approach". However, according to previous researches,decision-making in hesitant atmosphere to select exogenous variables of businessdevelopment model based on new product development was not observed. Themain issue in this research is to investigate and find the factors affecting thefeasibility of new product development plans and finally to obtain a method forevaluating new product development plans in industry. In evaluating economicplans, the parameters are usually considered definite, but the study of uncertaintyis important considerably. The results show that 6 exogenous variables wereselected as key variables in the selection and development of a new product in theorganization. The weighted importance of variables is the share of new productacceptance in the market (0.275), new product development investmentconfidence (0.239), new product development strategy (0.209), level of passingstandards and requirements (0.136), attracting development research fundingProduct (0.077) and Applied Research Fundraising (0.061). The dynamic productdevelopment model is designed based on the cause-and-effect relationship and infuture studies needs to test the simulation performance of present and futuredecision making
منابع
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phenomenon, its time to accept other success criteria. Int.J. Proj. Manag. 17, 337–342.
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technology interdependence and coordination in knowledge work. Organ.Sci. 21, 713–
730.
-Barbosa, A. M. C. and Saisse, M. C. P. 2019.Hybrid project managementfor
sociotechnical digital transformation context,Brazilian J. Oper.Prod. Manag., vol. 16, no.
2, pp. 316–332.
-Barragán-Ocaña,A and Zubieta-García,J, 2018, Critical Factors toward Successful R&D
Projects in Public Research Centers: a Primer. Applied Research and Technology, 11,
866–875.
-Brown, S.L., Eisenhardt, K.M., 2019. Product development: past research,present
findings, and future directions. Acad. Manag. Rev. 20, 343–378.
-Campbell, R. I.et al. 2007.Design evolution through customerinteraction with functional
prototypes,J. Eng. Des., vol. 18,no. 6,pp. 617–635.
-Cao, M., Zhang, Q., 2017. Supply chain collaboration: impact on collaborative advantage
and firm performance. J. Oper. Manag. 29, 163–180.
-Conforto, E. C., Salum, F., Amaral, D. C., da Silva, S. L., and deAlmeida, L. F. M.,
2014.Can Agile Project Management be Adopted byIndustries Other than Software
Development?,Proj. Manag. J., vol.45, no. 3, pp. 21–34.
-Edwards, K., Cooper, R. G., Vedsmand, T., andNardelli, G. ,2014. Evaluating the Agile-
Stage-Gate Hybrid Model: Experiences FromThree SME Manufacturing Firms,Int. J.
Innov. Technol. Manag.,vol. 16, 08, 194-210.
-Florén, H., Frishammar, J., Parida, V., and Wincent, J. ,2018.Criticalsuccess factors in
early new product development: a review and aconceptual model,Int. Entrep. Manag. J.,
vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 411–427.
-Fontana, F., Klahn, C., and Meboldt, M., 2019.Value-driven clustering of industrial
additive manufacturing applications,J. Manuf. Technol.Manag., vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 366–
390.
-Gann, D.M., Salter, A.J., 2020. Innovation in project-based, service-enhanced firms: the
construction of complex products and systems. Res. Policy 29, 955–972.
-Griffin, A., 2016. PDMA research on new product development practices: updating
trends and benchmarking best practices. J. Prod. Innov. Manag. 14, 429–458.
-Stiven A.C., Beamish, P.W., 2015. Knowledge, bargaining power, and the instability of
international joint ventures. Acad. Manag. Rev. 22, 177–202.
-Jiang, R., Kleer, R., and Piller, F. T. 2017.Predicting the future ofadditive manufacturing:
A Delphi study on economic and societalimplications of 3D printing for
2030,Technol.Forecast. Soc.Change, vol. 117, pp. 84–97.
-Krishnan, V., Ulrich, K.T., 2014. Product development decisions: a review of the
literature. Manag. Sci. 47, 1–21.
62 / ...... ........... ........ . ارائ ه ی ک مد ل دینامیک ارزیاب ی طر حها ی کس ب و کا ر د ر شرای ط .. .
-Laine, T., Korhonen, T., Martinsuo, M., 2020. Managing program impacts in new
product development: an exploratory case study on overcoming uncertainties. Int. J. Proj.
Manag. 34, 717–733.
-Leffingwell, D. 2010. Agile software requirements: lean requirementspractices for teams,
programs, and the enterprise. Boston:Addison-Wesley, 23, 117–133.
-Melander, L., Lakemond, N., 2015. Governance of supplier collaboration in
technologically uncertain NPD projects. Ind. Mark. Manag. 49, 116–127.
-Milewski, J. O.Additive Manufacturing of Metals: FromFundamental Technology to
Rocket Nozzles, Medical Implants, andCustom Jewelry, vol. 258. Cham:Springer
International Publishing,2017.
-Montero, J., Weber, S., Bleckmann, M., Atzberger, A., Wirths, L.,and Paetzold, K.
2019.Spare part production in remote locations throughAdditive Manufacturing enhanced
by agile development principles,in2019 IEEE International Conference on Engineering,
Technology and Innovation (ICE/ITMC), pp. 1–8.
-Nambi, S. S. and Herbert, G. M. J. 2018.Manufacturing of proto typewind turbine blades
using rapid prototype technology,Int. J. Mech.Prod. Eng. Res. Dev., vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 103–
112.
-Niaki, M. K. and Nonino, F. 2017.Impact of additive manufacturing onbusiness
competitiveness: a multiple case study,J. Manuf. Technol.Manag., vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 56–
74.
-Niesten, E., Jolink, A., 2012. Incentives, opportunism and behavioral uncertainty in
electricity industries. J. Bus. Res. 65, 1031–1039.
-Oh, J., Lee, S., and Yang, J. 2015.A collaboration model for new productdevelopment
through the integration of PLM and SCM in theelectronics industry,Comput. Ind., vol. 73,
pp. 82–92.
-Oliver Gretsch , Edmund Christian Salzmann and Alexander Kock, 2019. University
industry collaboration and frontend success: the moderating effects of innovativeness and
parallel cross firm collaboration, R&D Management, 49, 116–127.
-Padalkar, M., Gopinath, S., 2020. Are complexity and uncertainty distinct concepts in
project management? A taxonomical examination from literature. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 34,
688–700.
-Park, J.-G., Lee, J., 2014. Knowledge sharing in information systems development
projects: explicating the role of dependence and trust. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 32, 153–165.
-Peng, D.X., Heim, G.R., Mallick, D.N., 2014. Collaborative product development: the
effect of project complexity on the use of information technology tools and new product
development practices. Prod. Oper.Manag. 23, 1421–1438.
-Qureshi, S.M., Kang, C., 2020. Analysing the organizational factors of project
complexity using structural equation modelling. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 33, 165–176.
-Schuh, G., Salmen, M., Kelzenberg, C., and de Lange, J. 2014.Integrationof Tool Making
into Agile Product Development using Industry 4.0 Technologies and Additive
Manufacturing Technologies, in2018Portland International Conference on Management
of Engineeringand Technology (PICMET),., pp. 1–9.
-Siebold, M. 2010.Additive Manufacturing for Serial Production of High-Performance
Metal Parts,Mech. Eng., vol.141, no. 05, pp. 49–50.
-Swink, M., 2009 Threats to new product manufacturability and the effects of
development team integration processes. J. Oper. Manag. 17, 691–709.
فصلنامه مطالعات کمی در مدیریت............................................................ / 63
-Tang, F., Mu, J., Thomas, E., 2015. Who knows what in NPD teams: communication
context, mode, and task contingencies. J. Prod. Innov. Manag. 32, 404–423.
-Tatikonda, M.V., Montoya-Weiss, M.M., 2011. Integrating operations and marketing
perspectives of product innovation: the influence of organizational process factors and
capabilities on development performance. Manag.Sci. 47, 151–172.
-Tatikonda, M.V., Rosenthal, S.R., 2012. Technology novelty, project complexity, and
product development project execution success: a deeper look at task uncertainty in
product innovation. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag. 47, 74–87.
-Vickery, S.K., Koufteros, X., Drge, C., Calantone, R., 2016. Product modularity, process
modularity, and new product introduction performance: does complexity matter? Prod.
Oper. Manag. 25, 751–770.
-Wynstra, F., Corswant, F.V., Wetzels, M., 2010. In chains? An empirical study of
antecedents of supplier product development activity in the automotive industry. J. Prod.
Innov. Manag. 27, 625–639.
-Yan Chen,Partial adjustment toward target R&D intensity,2018. R&D Management. 48,
134-167.
-Yan, T., Dooley, K., 2020. Buyer-supplier collaboration quality in new product
development projects. J. Supply Chain Manag. 50, 59–83.
-Yan, T., Dooley, K.J., 2013. Communication intensity, goal congruence, and uncertainty
in buyer-supplier new product development. J. Oper. Manag. 31, 523–542.
-Yan, T., Wagner, S.M., 2021. Do what and with whom? Value creation and appropriation
in inter-organizational new product development projects. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 191, 1–14.
-Yang, Q., Lu, T., Yao, T., Zhang, B., 2014. The impact of uncertainty and ambiguity
related to iteration and overlapping on schedule of product development projects. Int. J.
Proj. Manag. 32, 827–837.
منابع
-Atkinson, R., 2018. Project management: cost, time and quality, two best guesses and a
phenomenon, its time to accept other success criteria. Int.J. Proj. Manag. 17, 337–342.
-Bailey, D.E., Leonardi, P.M., Chong, J., 2020. Minding the gaps: understanding
technology interdependence and coordination in knowledge work. Organ.Sci. 21, 713–
730.
-Barbosa, A. M. C. and Saisse, M. C. P. 2019.Hybrid project managementfor
sociotechnical digital transformation context,Brazilian J. Oper.Prod. Manag., vol. 16, no.
2, pp. 316–332.
-Barragán-Ocaña,A and Zubieta-García,J, 2018, Critical Factors toward Successful R&D
Projects in Public Research Centers: a Primer. Applied Research and Technology, 11,
866–875.
-Brown, S.L., Eisenhardt, K.M., 2019. Product development: past research,present
findings, and future directions. Acad. Manag. Rev. 20, 343–378.
-Campbell, R. I.et al. 2007.Design evolution through customerinteraction with functional
prototypes,J. Eng. Des., vol. 18,no. 6,pp. 617–635.
-Cao, M., Zhang, Q., 2017. Supply chain collaboration: impact on collaborative advantage
and firm performance. J. Oper. Manag. 29, 163–180.
-Conforto, E. C., Salum, F., Amaral, D. C., da Silva, S. L., and deAlmeida, L. F. M.,
2014.Can Agile Project Management be Adopted byIndustries Other than Software
Development?,Proj. Manag. J., vol.45, no. 3, pp. 21–34.
-Edwards, K., Cooper, R. G., Vedsmand, T., andNardelli, G. ,2014. Evaluating the Agile-
Stage-Gate Hybrid Model: Experiences FromThree SME Manufacturing Firms,Int. J.
Innov. Technol. Manag.,vol. 16, 08, 194-210.
-Florén, H., Frishammar, J., Parida, V., and Wincent, J. ,2018.Criticalsuccess factors in
early new product development: a review and aconceptual model,Int. Entrep. Manag. J.,
vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 411–427.
-Fontana, F., Klahn, C., and Meboldt, M., 2019.Value-driven clustering of industrial
additive manufacturing applications,J. Manuf. Technol.Manag., vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 366–
390.
-Gann, D.M., Salter, A.J., 2020. Innovation in project-based, service-enhanced firms: the
construction of complex products and systems. Res. Policy 29, 955–972.
-Griffin, A., 2016. PDMA research on new product development practices: updating
trends and benchmarking best practices. J. Prod. Innov. Manag. 14, 429–458.
-Stiven A.C., Beamish, P.W., 2015. Knowledge, bargaining power, and the instability of
international joint ventures. Acad. Manag. Rev. 22, 177–202.
-Jiang, R., Kleer, R., and Piller, F. T. 2017.Predicting the future ofadditive manufacturing:
A Delphi study on economic and societalimplications of 3D printing for
2030,Technol.Forecast. Soc.Change, vol. 117, pp. 84–97.
-Krishnan, V., Ulrich, K.T., 2014. Product development decisions: a review of the
literature. Manag. Sci. 47, 1–21.
62 / ...... ........... ........ . ارائ ه ی ک مد ل دینامیک ارزیاب ی طر حها ی کس ب و کا ر د ر شرای ط .. .
-Laine, T., Korhonen, T., Martinsuo, M., 2020. Managing program impacts in new
product development: an exploratory case study on overcoming uncertainties. Int. J. Proj.
Manag. 34, 717–733.
-Leffingwell, D. 2010. Agile software requirements: lean requirementspractices for teams,
programs, and the enterprise. Boston:Addison-Wesley, 23, 117–133.
-Melander, L., Lakemond, N., 2015. Governance of supplier collaboration in
technologically uncertain NPD projects. Ind. Mark. Manag. 49, 116–127.
-Milewski, J. O.Additive Manufacturing of Metals: FromFundamental Technology to
Rocket Nozzles, Medical Implants, andCustom Jewelry, vol. 258. Cham:Springer
International Publishing,2017.
-Montero, J., Weber, S., Bleckmann, M., Atzberger, A., Wirths, L.,and Paetzold, K.
2019.Spare part production in remote locations throughAdditive Manufacturing enhanced
by agile development principles,in2019 IEEE International Conference on Engineering,
Technology and Innovation (ICE/ITMC), pp. 1–8.
-Nambi, S. S. and Herbert, G. M. J. 2018.Manufacturing of proto typewind turbine blades
using rapid prototype technology,Int. J. Mech.Prod. Eng. Res. Dev., vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 103–
112.
-Niaki, M. K. and Nonino, F. 2017.Impact of additive manufacturing onbusiness
competitiveness: a multiple case study,J. Manuf. Technol.Manag., vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 56–
74.
-Niesten, E., Jolink, A., 2012. Incentives, opportunism and behavioral uncertainty in
electricity industries. J. Bus. Res. 65, 1031–1039.
-Oh, J., Lee, S., and Yang, J. 2015.A collaboration model for new productdevelopment
through the integration of PLM and SCM in theelectronics industry,Comput. Ind., vol. 73,
pp. 82–92.
-Oliver Gretsch , Edmund Christian Salzmann and Alexander Kock, 2019. University
industry collaboration and frontend success: the moderating effects of innovativeness and
parallel cross firm collaboration, R&D Management, 49, 116–127.
-Padalkar, M., Gopinath, S., 2020. Are complexity and uncertainty distinct concepts in
project management? A taxonomical examination from literature. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 34,
688–700.
-Park, J.-G., Lee, J., 2014. Knowledge sharing in information systems development
projects: explicating the role of dependence and trust. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 32, 153–165.
-Peng, D.X., Heim, G.R., Mallick, D.N., 2014. Collaborative product development: the
effect of project complexity on the use of information technology tools and new product
development practices. Prod. Oper.Manag. 23, 1421–1438.
-Qureshi, S.M., Kang, C., 2020. Analysing the organizational factors of project
complexity using structural equation modelling. Int. J. Proj. Manag. 33, 165–176.
-Schuh, G., Salmen, M., Kelzenberg, C., and de Lange, J. 2014.Integrationof Tool Making
into Agile Product Development using Industry 4.0 Technologies and Additive
Manufacturing Technologies, in2018Portland International Conference on Management
of Engineeringand Technology (PICMET),., pp. 1–9.
-Siebold, M. 2010.Additive Manufacturing for Serial Production of High-Performance
Metal Parts,Mech. Eng., vol.141, no. 05, pp. 49–50.
-Swink, M., 2009 Threats to new product manufacturability and the effects of
development team integration processes. J. Oper. Manag. 17, 691–709.
فصلنامه مطالعات کمی در مدیریت............................................................ / 63
-Tang, F., Mu, J., Thomas, E., 2015. Who knows what in NPD teams: communication
context, mode, and task contingencies. J. Prod. Innov. Manag. 32, 404–423.
-Tatikonda, M.V., Montoya-Weiss, M.M., 2011. Integrating operations and marketing
perspectives of product innovation: the influence of organizational process factors and
capabilities on development performance. Manag.Sci. 47, 151–172.
-Tatikonda, M.V., Rosenthal, S.R., 2012. Technology novelty, project complexity, and
product development project execution success: a deeper look at task uncertainty in
product innovation. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag. 47, 74–87.
-Vickery, S.K., Koufteros, X., Drge, C., Calantone, R., 2016. Product modularity, process
modularity, and new product introduction performance: does complexity matter? Prod.
Oper. Manag. 25, 751–770.
-Wynstra, F., Corswant, F.V., Wetzels, M., 2010. In chains? An empirical study of
antecedents of supplier product development activity in the automotive industry. J. Prod.
Innov. Manag. 27, 625–639.
-Yan Chen,Partial adjustment toward target R&D intensity,2018. R&D Management. 48,
134-167.
-Yan, T., Dooley, K., 2020. Buyer-supplier collaboration quality in new product
development projects. J. Supply Chain Manag. 50, 59–83.
-Yan, T., Dooley, K.J., 2013. Communication intensity, goal congruence, and uncertainty
in buyer-supplier new product development. J. Oper. Manag. 31, 523–542.
-Yan, T., Wagner, S.M., 2021. Do what and with whom? Value creation and appropriation
in inter-organizational new product development projects. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 191, 1–14.
-Yang, Q., Lu, T., Yao, T., Zhang, B., 2014. The impact of uncertainty and ambiguity
related to iteration and overlapping on schedule of product development projects. Int. J.
Proj. Manag. 32, 827–837.