Forecast of climatologically events using improved grey model (Case Study: Qazvin Province Climatology)
محورهای موضوعی : Mathematical EngineeringMaryam Karimi Khajehghiasi 1 , Alireza Alinezhad 2
1 - MSc. Student, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industrial and Mechanical Engineering, Qazvin branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industrial and Mechanical Engineering, Qazvin branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
کلید واژه: Forecast, metabolism, Grey Model,
چکیده مقاله :
The theory of grey system is used when sufficient information of the community under study is not in hand. The grey forecast model is proper when the information variety is fix and certain. Grey model can apply some additional computations to improve forecasting activities when data is insufficient. Through using improved grey model, the assessment error decreases significantly. This study made use of the mean maximum daily temperature data collected by Qazvin meteorological station, from August 2001 to August 2013. The findings revealed that the grey model metabolism method can reduce errors and improve the precision of forecasting the mean variable of maximum daily temperature.
The theory of grey system is used when sufficient information of the community under study is not in hand. The grey forecast model is proper when the information variety is fix and certain. Grey model can apply some additional computations to improve forecasting activities when data is insufficient. Through using improved grey model, the assessment error decreases significantly. This study made use of the mean maximum daily temperature data collected by Qazvin meteorological station, from August 2001 to August 2013. The findings revealed that the grey model metabolism method can reduce errors and improve the precision of forecasting the mean variable of maximum daily temperature.
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