List of Articles Economic Uncertainty

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  1 - Identifying the effect of economic uncertainty factors on the performance of insurance joint stock companies
  Ali Zamiri Mahnaz Rabiee
  10.30495/ijpa.2022.67697.10910
  Background: The main problem of this study is to identify the effect of economic uncertainty factors on the performance or profit of the insurance company. One of the important goals that institutions pursue is to create more efficiency in allocating resources. Therefor More

  Background: The main problem of this study is to identify the effect of economic uncertainty factors on the performance or profit of the insurance company. One of the important goals that institutions pursue is to create more efficiency in allocating resources. Therefore, paying attention to the effects of these uncertainties and the overall macroeconomic environment on the financial system is of particular importance. If these uncertainties lead to deviations in the portfolio and credit behavior of institutions, it can leave negative effects on the efficiency of the country's economic system. Research method: The method of this study is quantitative-survey type. The statistical population of the research is managers and employees of the insurance company, of which 415 people were selected as a sample and the data required for the research was given in the conceptual model. The independent variable is the factors of economic uncertainty, for its calculation, macroeconomic variables include economic growth rate, inflation rate, and unemployment rate, and the dependent variable of insurance performance was measured with three indices: profit margin, asset return, and customer satisfaction. In this research, in order to test the hypotheses in the inferential statistics section, structural equations using pls and sem methods were used. be The data from 1394 to 1397 are considered for macroeconomic variables. Findings: The results showed that macroeconomic variables (growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate) have a significant effect on the performance of the insurance industry, and non-financial variables (political stability, independence of insurance companies from the government) have a significant effect on the performance of the insurance industry. you have Results: The insurance industry is one of the indicators of development and is considered as one of the most important economic institutions that supports the activities of other institutions. The increase in the instability of the exchange rate and the uncontrollable financial and economic monetary policies will disrupt the existing order in the market and create financial crises. External reactions in this type of financial crisis include disruption in cash flow and accumulation of arrears by bank and insurance joint-stock companies. Since macroeconomic factors affect the profitability of insurance companies, creating a favorable macroeconomic environment can be effective in reducing the effect of shocks, and reforming the structure of insurance companies can reduce the vulnerability and losses of these companies against fluctuations. exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables. Manuscript profile
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  2 - Investigation of economic uncertainty on cash holding
  Mehran Matinfard Aliakbar Chaharmahali
  The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic uncertainty on cash holdings in listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. In this regard, the financial information of 135 companies during the period 2010-2010 was systematically extracted and analyzed More

  The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic uncertainty on cash holdings in listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. In this regard, the financial information of 135 companies during the period 2010-2010 was systematically extracted and analyzed as statistical sample of research. The purpose of the research is applied and it uses the correlation method. It is also a time-consuming type of post-event research. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS, R software at 95% confidence level and panel data and linear regression model were used to test the hypotheses. The empirical evidence from the research hypotheses suggests that there is a negative and significant relationship between the variables of stock market index economic uncertainty and consumer price index with cash holding level. The same result was also found among the variables of economic uncertainty effect on cash holding With a year delay . Therefore, both research hypotheses were confirmed. Manuscript profile
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  3 - The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on Earnings Response Coefficient using two-factor Fama-McBeth Model
  Babak Salem Dezfouly Allah Karam Salehi Alireza Jorjorzadeh Saeed Nasiri
  The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of Economic Uncertainty on Earnings Response Coefficient of listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. These Four dimensions of Economic Uncertainty in our tests: GDP growth, Inflation rate, Exchange rate and Interest r More

  The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of Economic Uncertainty on Earnings Response Coefficient of listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. These Four dimensions of Economic Uncertainty in our tests: GDP growth, Inflation rate, Exchange rate and Interest rate. Using ARCH and GARCH for this purpose one hypothesis developed and data on the 142 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange for the period of 1387 to 1396 were analyzed. The regression model using two-factor Fama and McBeth reviews has been tested.The results showed that the concentration of Economic Uncertainty (GDP growth, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate) has significant negative impact on Earnings Response Coefficient. Manuscript profile
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  4 - Economic policy uncertainty, banks’ lending decisions
  Nader Rezaei Alireza Norouzi
  Economic uncertainty is an unpredictable changes in economic variables that can have a large impact on other variables and economic entities such as banks and credit institutions, especially in developing countries such as Iran. The purpose of this study was to investig More

  Economic uncertainty is an unpredictable changes in economic variables that can have a large impact on other variables and economic entities such as banks and credit institutions, especially in developing countries such as Iran. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of economic uncertainty on credit risk, performance and lending decisions of banks. For this purpose, firstly, the effective variables on bank lending decisions were separated into three indicators (credit risk, performance, and lending rates). Also, economic uncertainty was measured using the standard deviation of six variables (exchange rate, annual interest rate, GDP, national income growth rate, ratio of oil sales to national income, tax rate to national income), then research data in the period of five For the year 1390-1394, for 13 banks accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange, they were assembled by performing different tests, distinguishing between specific bank and macroeconomic variables, from the variability of the research variables. Finally, estimating the econometric model with panel data technology showed that in the first model, the economic uncertainty variable had a positive and significant effect on the credit risk of banks. Also, in the second model, economic uncertainty has a positive effect on the performance of banks, and finally, in the third model, there was no significant relationship between economic uncertainty and the level of bank lending. Manuscript profile
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  5 - The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on Cost Stickiness Behavior
  behzad rezazadeh shokrollah khajavi Allah Karam Salehi
  10.30486/fbra.2021.1932472.1010
  The purpose of this research is to study macroeconomic uncertainty measures effect on cost stickiness conducting two steps Fama-Macbeth regression models on listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to estimate macroeconomic uncertainty four measures of GDP gr More

  The purpose of this research is to study macroeconomic uncertainty measures effect on cost stickiness conducting two steps Fama-Macbeth regression models on listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to estimate macroeconomic uncertainty four measures of GDP growth, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate have been utilized by Arch and Garch models. For this purpose, a hypothesis is developed and the data of108 listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange is analyzed during the period of 2011 to 2019. The research regression model is tested by two steps Fama-Macbeth regression model. Results show a positive significant effect of macroeconomic uncertainty measures (measures of GDP growth, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate) on cost stickiness. Thus, results hold that macroeconomic uncertainty measures increase cost stickiness. Manuscript profile
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  6 - Investigating impact of uncertainty of economic macro-variables on tax management using Fama Macbeth Two-Step Regression
  Hashem Kavianifard shokrollah khajavi Fariborz Avazzadeh Fath
  The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of economic uncertainty criteria on tax management in accepted companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this study, we used three criteria of tax management including tax avoidance, tax evasion and Tax aggres More

  The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of economic uncertainty criteria on tax management in accepted companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this study, we used three criteria of tax management including tax avoidance, tax evasion and Tax aggression, as well as measuring economic macro-variables uncertainty from four criteria of GDP, inflation, exchange rates and interest rates using the Arch and Garch indexes. To this end, three hypotheses have formulated to investigate this issue and the data of 108 company members Tehran Stock Exchange have collected and analyzed for the period of 2011-2018. The research regression model has investigated and tested using Fama Macbeth two-step method. The final results show that the economic uncertainty criteria (GDP growth, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate) have a positive and significant impact on all three criteria of tax management namely tax avoidance, tax evasion and Tax aggression. Manuscript profile
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  7 - Investigating the effect of economic uncertainty on cost stickiness with emphasis on the moderating role of ownership concentration
  Amir reza Emami Mohammad Hossein setayesh
  The abstract of this research aims to examine the impact of economic uncertainty on cost stickiness with the moderating role of ownership concentration. The target population in this study consists of one hundred companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over a six- More

  The abstract of this research aims to examine the impact of economic uncertainty on cost stickiness with the moderating role of ownership concentration. The target population in this study consists of one hundred companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over a six-year period. Multivariate correlation and regression were used to test the research hypotheses, and Excel and EVIEWS 10 software were used for data analysis and extracting research results. The results of the study indicate a direct and significant relationship between economic uncertainty and cost stickiness. Furthermore, the test results show that ownership concentration has a negative and significant effect on the relationship between cost stickiness and economic uncertainty. Therefore, it can be stated that an increase in economic uncertainty leads to an increase in cost stickiness. The findings of this study suggest a strong and positive relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty variables and cost stickiness. Additionally, with an increase in economic uncertainty, ownership concentration leads to a decrease in cost stickiness. Manuscript profile
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  8 - Investigating the Impact of Economic Uncertainty on Stock Liquidity with an Emphasis on CEO Tenure
  Arash Derajhshanmehr roghayeh nazari Ali Mashayekhi
  In the current study, the impact of economic uncertainty on stock liquidity has been investigated with an emphasis on CEO tenure. This research is practical in purpose, and from a correlation methodological perspective, it is causal (post-event). The research population More

  In the current study, the impact of economic uncertainty on stock liquidity has been investigated with an emphasis on CEO tenure. This research is practical in purpose, and from a correlation methodological perspective, it is causal (post-event). The research population consists of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. A systematic elimination sampling method has been used to select 124 companies from 2012 to 2019. In this research, macroeconomic variables, including changes in the inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and gross domestic product (GDP), have been used to assess economic uncertainty. Furthermore, both autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have been employed to investigate uncertainty. Finally, by using the panel data model and multivariate regression, research hypotheses have been investigated. According to the results of the classical hypothesis test based on variance heterogeneity, the generalized least squares (GLS) method has been utilized. According to research findings, economic uncertainty has a substantial impact on stock liquidity. The interactive effects of CEO tenure along with changes in inflation and interest rates on stock liquidity are inverse and significant. For economic growth and exchange rate changes, however, they are positive and significant. . Manuscript profile
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  9 - The Investigating of Effect Economic Uncertainty and Economic Sanctions on Stock Price Crash Risk
  Reza Salehi Allah Karam Salehi
  Abstract: This study examines the impact of economic uncertainty and economic sanctions on stock price crash risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2014 to 2020 using data from 119 selected companies. The results show that there is a positive and significant relations More

  Abstract: This study examines the impact of economic uncertainty and economic sanctions on stock price crash risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2014 to 2020 using data from 119 selected companies. The results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between economic sanctions and stock price crash risk. In other words, in a situation where the country is facing economic sanctions, consequently, the costs of companies, including production, wages, and product costs, etc., increase, that in these circumstances, managers may keep the unfavorable economic news caused by these factors hidden for some time, and this will lead to an increase in the stock price crash. The results also showed that in case of economic uncertainty, stock price crash risk increased and the criteria of economic uncertainty have a positive and significant relationship with the stock price crash risk. In other words, in a situation where there is economic uncertainty due to rising exchange, inflation rates and slowing economic growth, firm managers prefer to maintain their jobs and professional reputation, hide the bad and negative news caused by these conditions (such as rising raw materials, cost of goods, declining sales, profits, and liquidity) from the view of shareholders and investors, which ultimately leads to an increase in the stock price crash. Manuscript profile
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  10 - The analysis of relationship between economic uncertainty shock and stock market illiquidity using Time-Varying Structural VAR Model (TVSVAR)
  seyed hamed poorhosseini Hossein Sharifi Renani Saeed Daie-Karimzadeh
  Uncertainty can have profound consequences for both companies and individuals hoping to make optimal decisions for their benefit. Economic agents in financial markets are generally concerned about uncertainty in the political, economic and environmental spheres. When pr More

  Uncertainty can have profound consequences for both companies and individuals hoping to make optimal decisions for their benefit. Economic agents in financial markets are generally concerned about uncertainty in the political, economic and environmental spheres. When prior expectations are compromised by the increased likelihood of uncertain outcomes, agents must wait for the waves of uncertainty to dissipate before making sound financial decisions. In this research, the relationship between economic uncertainty shock and illiquidity of the stock market has been analyzed using the Time-Varying Structural Vector Auto-regressive model TVSVAR during the years 2008:4-2020:3. The obtained results indicate that the effect of the economic uncertainty shock on illiquidity was positive and increasing in most of the periods and years under investigation, and the effect of the shock of liquidity volume growth on illiquidity had a decreasing effect in most of the periods and years. The effect of inflation shock on illiquidity increased in all the studied periods and years, but in 2016 and 2020, it had a decreasing effect in the final period. Manuscript profile
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  11 - Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty
  H Schjær-Jacobsen
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  12 - The role of political and economic uncertainties on improving the predictability of industrial activities in Iran
  Farzaneh Khalili mehdi mohammadi farid asgari
  The industrial sector and its growth is one of the most important performance indicators of the economy at the macro level and achieving a higher growth rate in this sector is one of the important goals of any economic system. Therefore, it is important to study the fac More

  The industrial sector and its growth is one of the most important performance indicators of the economy at the macro level and achieving a higher growth rate in this sector is one of the important goals of any economic system. Therefore, it is important to study the factors that affect the development of the industrial sector and improve the predictability of this sector. A review of the literature on the development of industry in the economy shows that one of the most important factors affecting its development is the stability of macroeconomics in both economic and political sectors, so that economists today have accepted that economic and political stability is a necessary condition for growth. It is high and continuous in the industry sector of the economy. In this regard, in the present study, the role of political and economic uncertainties on improving the predictability of industrial sector activities in Iran during the period 1991 to 1399 has been investigated. GMM generalized torque method was used to analyze the data. Findings showed that economic and political uncertainties have had negative and significant effects on the development of the industrial sector in Iran. It was also observed that considering political and economic uncertainties can improve the predictability of industrial sector activities. Accordingly, it is concluded that macroeconomic and policy policies in the country should be implemented a way that does not harm economic stability and thus the development of the industrial in the country. Manuscript profile
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  13 - Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Investment Decisions of Banks
  حافظ نیکخو تیمور رحمانی فرزانه خلیلی
  10.30495/fed.2022.691021
  AbstractIn times of uncertainty, the planning, decision-making and policy-making process in all sectors of the economy is disrupted due to the impossibility of predicting the future. The present study seeks to investigate the uncertainty effects of macroeconomics on inv More

  AbstractIn times of uncertainty, the planning, decision-making and policy-making process in all sectors of the economy is disrupted due to the impossibility of predicting the future. The present study seeks to investigate the uncertainty effects of macroeconomics on investment decisions of Iranian banks over a 15-year period (2004-2018) using the seasonal data of 15 domestic banks experimentally. For this purpose, first the generalized conditional variance of inflation, exchange rate, economic growth rate and oil price indicators is estimated and then the effect of their average weight as an uncertainty indicator of macroeconomics on banks' investment decisions is identified by panel data method. Our empirical results show a significant relationship between banks' credit portfolio variation and macroeconomic uncertainty. In other words, as the macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' inability to predict their rate of returns on different assets increase, they allocate less resources to risky assets and more resources to safe assets. Also, there is a significant relationship between bank's specific risk and its investment decision. In other words, as the variance of bank's specific indices increase, the dispersion of risky assets in bank's portfolio increases.  Manuscript profile
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  14 - Investigating the effect of economic uncertainty on the relationship between comparability of financial statements and the stock price crash risk in Tehran Stock Exchange
  Zeinab Rezaei fatemeh kiyani
  10.30495/afi.2022.1944433.1061
  The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic uncertainty criteria on the relationship between the financial statement comparability and the stocks price crash risk in companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange. To measure stocks price crash risk, th More

  The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic uncertainty criteria on the relationship between the financial statement comparability and the stocks price crash risk in companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange. To measure stocks price crash risk, the criterion of negative stock skewness was used and to measure the economic uncertainty, three indicators of inflation rate changes, exchange rate changes and economic growth rate changes were used. For this purpose, data related to 119 companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange for the period from 2014 to 2020 have been analyzed. The research regression model has been investigated and tested using the panel data method with a random effects approach. The results showed that in conditions of economic uncertainty, stocks price crash risk increased and economic uncertainty criteria moderate the negative relationship between financial statement comparability and stocks price crash risk. In addition, the results showed that improving the quality of financial statement comparability facilitates investors’ access to some information not disclosed by company managers, and therefore managers' motivation to accumulate bad news is reduced, resulting in stocks price crash risk. The effect of the sudden release of bad news is reduced. Manuscript profile