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Open Access Article
1 - Predict The drought situation in the province of lorestan during the Years of 2013-2030 Using Down-scaling output of 4 general circulation model
Fatemeh Dargahian Behrooz Parvaneh Hengameh Shiravand One of the consequences of climate change, is drought. Identification, monitoring, and evaluation of the occurrence of droughts is very important.Studying the drought phenomenon in the Lorestan province of Iran is important, both in terms of agricultural producti More One of the consequences of climate change, is drought. Identification, monitoring, and evaluation of the occurrence of droughts is very important.Studying the drought phenomenon in the Lorestan province of Iran is important, both in terms of agricultural production and horticulture . In this study, the effects of droughts due to climate change were studied. We analyzed the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to accomplish this. We analyzed the circulation model (HADCM - INCM-IPCM-NCCCSM). We examined scenarios (B1, A2, A1B) with a statistical model. The statistical model we used was LARS-WG version 5, the fine-scale LARS-WG. Nine synoptic stations have been approved to evaluate the climate parameters. The climate parameters evaluated were: Minimum temperature, Maximum temperature, Rainfall and sunshine hours. This study covered the period 2011-2030 using this model. The final forecast according to the weight of each scenario and Hormel, The Synoptic prediction Nasraqlymy for all sites in this study has been done. The results show that the average of all the stations in the first and second volume will increase rainfall forecast .Next, we analyze the rainfall data, to evaluate the status of drought in the province. We reviewed the SPI drought index on the scale annually. The results show that over the next two decades, drought at most stations is reduced. We also found that wet conditions increased in the overall state of synoptic stations in through most of the coming years to 2030. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Climate change impact assessment on extreme daily rainfalls in Kermanshah
Mojtaba Heidari Mohammad Reza KhazaeiOne of the potential impacts of climate change is the change on extreme rainfalls frequency and magnitude. For active adaptation strategy, it is required to assess the impacts of climate change on heavy rainfalls. Many downscaling methods have been developed, however mo MoreOne of the potential impacts of climate change is the change on extreme rainfalls frequency and magnitude. For active adaptation strategy, it is required to assess the impacts of climate change on heavy rainfalls. Many downscaling methods have been developed, however most of them are not adequate for assessing climate change impact on extreme rainfalls. Among them, the NSRP rainfall model, which is generally ignored in previous studies, have considerable capabilities for climate change impact assessment on extreme rainfalls. In this paper, capability of the NSRP for daily rainfall series generation and climate change impact assessment on extreme rainfalls in Kermanshah is evaluated. The results indicated that NSRP can realistically simulate daily rainfall series containing extreme rainfalls; and can be used for climate change impact assessment on extreme rainfalls. Using the model, 100 series of daily rainfall of length 30 years were generated under each of the future A2, B1 and A1B scenarios from the CGCM3 model. Based on the results, magnitude of annual maximum rainfall of durations of one to five days will increase in future. Seasonal cycles of monthly means and accordance of extreme rainfalls will change. Long-term average of rainfall will decrease while extreme rainfall magnitude will increase. So it can be concluded that change in rainfall averages in monthly or yearly timescales cannot provide credit information about change in rainfall extremes. Respect to the results, for the future plans which are impressible of heavy rainfalls, the climate change impacts on heavy rainfalls should be considered. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Projection of extreme precipitation in climate change condition and sensitivity analysis of results to downscaling method
Mohammad Reza Khazaei Reza KazemiThe frequency and intensity of extreme rainfalls will increase over many areas of the globe due to climate change. So, it is required to revise result of such studies based on the climate change scenarios. One of the most effective tools in such studies is Weather Gener MoreThe frequency and intensity of extreme rainfalls will increase over many areas of the globe due to climate change. So, it is required to revise result of such studies based on the climate change scenarios. One of the most effective tools in such studies is Weather Generators, including LARS-WG. While GCMs predict future changes in the various characteristics of precipitation, usually in downscaling using LARS-WG, just changes of monthly averages are considered. In this paper, the future climate change impact on extreme precipitation in Gorgan and Khoramabad stations are assessed; while, the results of two methods of applying just change in averages (simple method) or applying changes in various characteristics of precipitation (complete method) in downscaling are compared. For future, CanESM2 outputs under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios for 2036-2065 period were used. The results showed that for climate change impact assessment on extreme rainfalls, additional to change in averages, change in other precipitation characteristics should be considered. Because the results of the two methods are different. In Gorgan, for example, the annual maximum daily rainfall with a return period of 15 years in the future will increase by 16 to 21 percent according to the more complete method, but between 37 and 49 percent according to the simpler method. Based on the complete, Intensity of the extreme rainfalls at both stations will increase in the future. This increase will be between 23% and 30% for the 2-year return period and between 25% and 29% for the 30-year return period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Climate Change Phenomenon Effect on the Hamadan Climate Parameters
Mohammadtaghi Asadi Hamid Zareabyaneh Nasrin Delavar Azar AsadiBackground and Objective: Process of climate change, particularly changes in temperature and precipitation; have raised the most discussion in the realm of environmental science. Human systems that are dependent on climatic elements such as agriculture and industry were MoreBackground and Objective: Process of climate change, particularly changes in temperature and precipitation; have raised the most discussion in the realm of environmental science. Human systems that are dependent on climatic elements such as agriculture and industry were designed based on stable climate. Method: In this study the output of general circulation models (GFCM21, HADCM3, INCM3, IPCM4 and NCCCSM) was used to simulate the climate parameters (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours) in Hamadan station during 2046-2065. Three scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 were considered. Monthly changes of climate parameters were calculated by LARS-WG model. Findings: The results showed that the most increasing in minimum temperature were seen under A1B scenario of GFCM21 model (2.5˚C). The least increasing was related to INCM3 under B1 scenario (1˚C). The highest and lowest increasing in maximum temperature were seen in GFCM21 model under A1B and B1 scenarios by 2.4 and 1.4˚C, respectively. B1 scenario of IPCM4 model showed the highest increase in precipitation by 15.8 percent and A1B scenario of GFCM21 model reported the highest decrease by 13 percent. Solar radiation project by HADCM3 model, A1B scenario showed the most increase about 24 percent and based on NCCCSMmodel, A2 scenario lowest increase (by 13 percent) was seen. Discussion and Conclusion: The results of this study indicated minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in period of 2046-2065. Both increases and decreases in precipitation were seen. Also variations sun hour is very little. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Prediction of future climate change in Tehran and Yazd under RCPs scenarios and using LARS-WG model
reza kazemi Mohammad Reza KhazaeiBackground and Objective: Climate change will change climate variables in the future. In order to reduce the negative effects of climate, it is required to project future climate variables. The purpose of this study is to simulate most realistic daily rainfall and tempe MoreBackground and Objective: Climate change will change climate variables in the future. In order to reduce the negative effects of climate, it is required to project future climate variables. The purpose of this study is to simulate most realistic daily rainfall and temperature series for Tehran and Yazd, with arid climatic, in period of 2036-2065 with considering uncertainty.Material and Methodology: the outputs of the CANESM2 under RCP scenarios were downscaled using LARS-WG. In downscaling, various characteristics of the large-scale scenarios were transferred to the downscaled scenarios. In most of the previous studies, only changes in averages have been considered. The uncertainties of emission scenarios and climatic variabilities were investigated using three emission scenarios and generating 100 series of 30-year variables for each scenario. So, a wide range of probable future scenarios is predicted and more reliable results are obtained.Findings: The results show in the future, for both Tehran and Yazd, temperature will rise in most months of the year, while in some months it will decrease. Average maximum temperature in April will increase between 6.1 to 9.9 ºC in Tehran, and between 7.1 to 8.2 in Yazd, while it will decreases in September by 2.4 degrees in Tehran, and by 0.7 degrees in Yazd. Future annual rainfall will increase between 20% to 40% in Tehran and between 43% to 49% in Yazd. However, changes vary in different months.Discussion and Conclusion: Climate regime of both Tehran and Yazd can considerably change in the future. Therefore, adaptation strategies with climate change are necessary. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - The Behavior of Inflow to the Seimareh Dam in the Face of Climate Change Impacts
Mohammadreza Goodarzi Hamed Vagheei Mirrahim MousaviBackground and Objective: The importance of environment protection has caused different countries benefit from renewable and clean sources to generate electricity. This has led to the development of hydropower plants around the world. Also, there are different hydroelec MoreBackground and Objective: The importance of environment protection has caused different countries benefit from renewable and clean sources to generate electricity. This has led to the development of hydropower plants around the world. Also, there are different hydroelectric projects in Iran that the Seimareh Dam & Hydropower Plant is amongst them. Since climate change can alter the hydrologic conditions of different areas and the performance of hydraulic structures, this study aims to examine the impacts of this phenomenon on the inflow to the Seimareh Dam. Method: Climate conditions in the future period (2040 to 2069) are predicted for the study area using HadCM3 model under A2 and B2 scenarios as well as CanESM2 model under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the Statistical DownScaling Method (SDSM model). Also, this study uses HEC-HMS hydrologic model to simulate river flow. Findings: The results of the present study show that temperature of the area increases in the future period to different scenarios, in such a way that the highest amount of increase for maximum and minimum temperature in the future period has been predicted for RCP8.5 respectively about 1.2 and 1.3 Centigrade. It is predicted that the mean annual amount of rainfall will reduce as well. Also, the assessment of simulated river flow shows that inflow to the Seimareh Dam will decrease about 5.2 to 13.4 percent in the future period. Discussion and Conclusion: The results of the present study show the importance and necessity of considering the climate change impacts in designing important hydraulic structures such as dams and hydropower plants. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Climate Change Impact on Extreme Rainfalls in Arid Region of Iran
Mohammad Reza Khazaei hadis khazaee bahram saghafianBackground and Objective: One of the major impacts on climate changes is change in extreme precipitation regime in the future, which have to be predicted to counteract the harmful effects of climate change. In this paper, climate change impact is assessed on extreme rai MoreBackground and Objective: One of the major impacts on climate changes is change in extreme precipitation regime in the future, which have to be predicted to counteract the harmful effects of climate change. In this paper, climate change impact is assessed on extreme rainfalls in arid regions of Iran. Method: Future scenarios are downscaled using the NSRP model. Long-term daily rainfall series are generated for current climate and future scenarios. By comparing the distribution of extreme daily rainfalls for current and future conditions, the impacts of climate change on extreme rainfalls are assessed. In downscaling method, a wide range of statistics of large-scale scenarios has been transferred to downscaled scenarios. The understudying stations are in Bam, Zahedan, Tehran and Yazd synoptic stations as representatives of the arid regions of Iran. Findings: Validation results indicate that the performance of this method in simulating daily rainfall series and distribution of extreme rainfall is acceptable. Results for most of stations and scenarios show that intensity of extreme daily rainfalls will increase in the future while average rainfall will decrease. As instance, in Yazd, extreme rainfall of 50 years return period would increase between 14 to 58 percent, while the average precipitation will change between +3 to -20 percent. Discussion and Conclusion: These results indicate that the precipitation situation in arid areas of Iran will worsen in the future. Therefore, more extensive investments and taking preventive activities to adapt to climate change is essential. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on Meteorological Drought Characteristics of Hablehrood Basin Using the HADCM3 General Circulation Model and the SPI and DI Index
Afshin Ashrafzade jaber salehpoor arezoo sharifiClimate change is one of the most important challenges that affect different parts of human life. One of the most important consequences of climate change is the impact on water resources and the occurrence of droughts. In this research, the effects of climate change on MoreClimate change is one of the most important challenges that affect different parts of human life. One of the most important consequences of climate change is the impact on water resources and the occurrence of droughts. In this research, the effects of climate change on the drought condition of Hablehrood watershed during the next three decades were evaluated using Decile Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Initially, the monthly data of the output of the HADCM3 General Circulation Model )GCM(, under the A2 scenario were Downscaled in the LARS-WG5 statistical model and the ability of this model to simulate the past climate (1995-1995 period) Firoozkooh synoptic stations basin Hablehrood watershed was approved. Then, climatic parameters of the minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunshine for the period 2040-2011 were simulated for the station studied. The results obtained from the station showed that the average annual maximum temperature would increase to 0.47 degrees Celsius, and the minimum temperatures would be 0.56 degrees Celsius. Annual precipitation fluctuations are not significantly different with rainfall during the base period, so that precipitation 0.06mm will be changed in the future period. Then, using rainfall data, the drought condition of the basin was studied using the two droughts Index mentioned in the annual scale. The results showed that these two Index are well-matched Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Simulation and prediction some of climate variable by using multi line SDSM and Global Circulation Models (Case study: Bar Watershed Nayshabour)
Siavash Taei Semiromi Hamid Reza Moradi Morteza KhodagholiOne of the weaknesses of GCMs model are large spatial scale in simulated of climatic variables that for hydrological studies and water resources in the range of watershed area are not sufficiently accurate. So should by using the different techniques that downscal MoreOne of the weaknesses of GCMs model are large spatial scale in simulated of climatic variables that for hydrological studies and water resources in the range of watershed area are not sufficiently accurate. So should by using the different techniques that downscale. Then downscaled outputs are used for assessing the impact of climate change on hydrological studies. Among downscaling approaches, statistical methods are of great importance among hydrologists due to their easy and quick performance. In this study, statistical model (SDSM) was evaluated for simulating and predicting minimum and maximum temperature, precipitations in the bar Nayshabur watershed. For executing SDSM model outputs of CGCM1 and Hadcm3 models were applied. Daily data of minimum and maximum temperatures precipitations for the basic period (1970-2000) were simulated under three A1, A2 and B1 scenarios. Based on Statistical parameters, outputs of Hadcm3 model under A2 more compatible with the basic period. Obtained results showed that during 2010-2039, 2040-2069and 2070-2099, the average temperature 0.01, 0.3 and 0.6, the average minimum temperature 0.3, 0.5 and1. 4 and the average maximum temperature 0.7, 1.4 and 2.7 ° C will increase compared to the basic period in the studied basin. Also, the results showed that within three studied periods, the average rainfall will decrease 6, 10 and 17 mm respectivity comparing to the basic period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - ارزیابی مدلهای CMIP5 جهت شبیه سازی بارش با استفاده از ترکیب دادههای بارش شبکهای APHRODIT و بارش ماهواره ای PERSIANN-CDR در سراسر استان خوزستان
کاظم رنگزن علی شهبازی زهرا جریده مصطفی کابلی زادهیکی از مهم ترین محدودیت های مدل های گردش عمومی جو، بزرگ مقیاس بودن متغیرهای اقلیمی شبیه سازی شده می باشد. بنابراین می بایست به روش های مختلف ریزمقیاس شوند تا توانایی لازم جهت برازش به منطقه مورد مطالعه را داشته باشند. انتخاب مدل GCM مناسب ب Moreیکی از مهم ترین محدودیت های مدل های گردش عمومی جو، بزرگ مقیاس بودن متغیرهای اقلیمی شبیه سازی شده می باشد. بنابراین می بایست به روش های مختلف ریزمقیاس شوند تا توانایی لازم جهت برازش به منطقه مورد مطالعه را داشته باشند. انتخاب مدل GCM مناسب برای محدوده مورد مطالعه نقش بسیار مهمی در شبیه سازی پارامتر موردنظر (بارش) برای آینده دارد. در این تحقیق از مدل های CMIP5 شامل BCC-CSM1.1.M، MPI-ESM-MR و MPI-ESM-LR به منظورارزیابی مدل ها در دوره پایه و مشخص کردن بهترین مدل جهت برازش به منطقه مورد مطالعه استفاده شد. بدین ترتیب که ابتدا هیستوریکال مدل و دیتای شاهد (ترکیب بارش ماهواره ای پرژین و بارش شبکه ای آفرودیت) به دو دوره تقسیم شد دوره اول 1992-1983 به عنوان دوره پایه و دوره دوم 2003-1994 به عنوان دوره ارزیابی. شاخص های راست آزمایی میانگین خطای مطلق و شاخص امتیاز مهارتی میانگین خطای مطلق بین مدل ها و شاهد در دوره ارزیابی قبل و بعد از اصلاح و ریزمقیاس نمایی به صورت فصلی در نرم افزار متلب برای تمامی پیکسل های استان خوزستان محاسبه شد. .نتایج حاکی از آن است که قبل از اعمال روش ریزمقیاس نمایی عامل تغییر (دلتا) مدل BCC-CSM1.1.Mدارای خطای کمتر نسبت به دو مدل دیگر بود و دو مدل دیگر از لحاظ میزان خطا تقریبا مشابه بودند. .بعد از اعمال روش دلتا مدل BCC-CSM1.1.M بهترین بهبود را از خود نشان داد و مدل های MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR به ترتیب در رتبه های دوم و سوم اهمیت قرار گرفتند. بنابراین بیشترین اعتماد بعد از ریزمقیاس نمایی به روش دلتا برای آینده تحت سناریوی RCP5.4 برای استان خوزستان به مدل BCC-CSM1.1.M اختصاص یافت. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Detection of Climate Change in Dez River Basin using Dynamical Downscaling
SIMA RAHIMI BONDARABADI Massoud Goodarzi Tayeb razieiAny changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing imbalance status in system components. However, these changes along whit their effects the future should be simulated. There are different methods for the use of climate models is the most reliable.Here i MoreAny changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing imbalance status in system components. However, these changes along whit their effects the future should be simulated. There are different methods for the use of climate models is the most reliable.Here in this research, climate change status in Dez river basin where a major basin for water and agricultural yields is studied. For this purpose, the PRECIS model was used. PRECIS is an exponential dynamics downscaling model used to estimate the temperature and precipitation rates for the period of 2070 to 2100 under A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the results of climate change assessment under scenario A2 for Dez river basin, precipitation would decrease up to 22% and up to 5 degrees centigrade would rise in average maximum and minimum temperature while concerning B2 scenario, a decrease in precipitation up to 33% and a rise in temperature rise up to 3°C are estimated. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Downscaling of satellite-based precipitation considering the spatially heterogeneous relationship between precipitation and environmental variables
Arman Abdollahipour Hassan Ahmadi Babak AminnejadThe satellite-based precipitation products are one of the sources of rainfall estimation. Nonetheless, for usage in the local regions and, or for parameterizing of meteorological and hydrological models at basin scales, their spatial resolution is often coarse. Therefor MoreThe satellite-based precipitation products are one of the sources of rainfall estimation. Nonetheless, for usage in the local regions and, or for parameterizing of meteorological and hydrological models at basin scales, their spatial resolution is often coarse. Therefore, in this study, a downscaling– calibration method was developed for global precipitation measurement (GPM) satellite estimates (at 0.1° spatial resolution), for one year from 01/04/2014 to 31/03/2015, by considering the spatial heterogeneity of the relationship between precipitation and the environmental variables using the mixed geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model for Golestan province. In obtaining improved precipitation data with 1 km spatial resolution at an annual scale, the results showed that (1) the proposed method not only improved the spatial resolution of precipitation but also increased accuracy; (2) the downscaled and calibrated precipitation data (CC = 0.74, bias = 0.23) performed better than the original data (CC = 0.58, bias = 0.35) against ground observations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Investigation of Climate Change on the Southern Coastal of the Caspian Sea Using SDSM, LARS-WG and Artificial Neural Network
Elham Ghasemifar Bohloul Alijani Mohammad SaligheIntroduction Average surface temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere have risen in response to climate change by 0.76°C over the past 150 years (IPCC, 2007) .These temperature increases have been accompanied by MoreIntroduction Average surface temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere have risen in response to climate change by 0.76°C over the past 150 years (IPCC, 2007) .These temperature increases have been accompanied by a reduction in snow and ice cover, retreat of sea ice and mountain glaciers, a longer growing season and earlier arrival of spring, increased frequency of extreme rainfall events, and more than 25,000 other changes in physical and biological indicators of global warming (Rosenzweig et al., 2008). Numerical models have used in such research after the late of year 1970s. The downscaling software such as SDSM,LARS_WG and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) became very common in the recent decades(e.g. Khan, et al., 2006).The results have showed that the SDSM is the most capable of reproducing various statistical characteristics of observed data in its downscaled results with 95% confidence level, the ANN is the least capable in this respect, and the LARS-WG is in between SDSM and ANN. According to Lopes et al (2008) in Assessment of climate change in Lisbon, the SDSM tool was able to better represent the minimum and maximum temperature whereas LARS-WG simulations is slightly better for precipitation. Material and methods This research has used downscaled methods for the minimum and maximum temperatures of five stations including Anzali, Rasht, Babolsar, Ramsar and Gorgan in the southern coastal of the Caspian sea by three models namely LARS-WG, SDSM and ANN during 1961-90 and 2010-2039 period under three scenarios of A1 , A2 , And B2 . For this purpose, first the observed data of 1961-90 period were obtained from Meteorological Organization of Iran. Since GCMs are restricted in their usefulness for local impact studies with their coarse spatial resolution (typically 50,000 km2) and inability to resolve important sub–grid scale features such as clouds and topography, the three downscaling models namely SDSM, LARS_WG and ANN were used to downscaling these coarse data. Two GCM data were obtained from the website: http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/index.cgi?Scenarios. Root Mean square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and Coefficient of determination ( ) were used to assessing the capability of the models. Result and discussions SDSM model results showed very small error ( 0.01 to 0.06°C) between observed and generate data using NCEP predictors-based data with a little more discrepancy using HADCM3 predictors-based data . The model output showed minimum and maximum temperature will rise during the future period with the exception of the months including April ,May and November. This warming trend was same for ANN with error range of 0.2 to 0.8°C. LARS-WG simulation showed temperature will rise for all months of the year with the error range of 0.1 to 0.2°C. The comparison betweem three models showed that the SDSM tool was able to better represent the minimum and maximum temperature. Conclusion According to this study the temperature increased during the target period. Temperature will increase during future period too.The SDSM and ANN model showed decrease in the temperature of the months including April, May and November. But the LARS_WG showed increase in the temperature in all month and all stations. The comparison of the models showed that the SDSM model has recorded the lowest error in the predicting of future temperatures. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Projections of Variation in precipitation extream values in Sabzevar by LARS-WG downscaling model during 2011-2030 to 2046-2065
SeyedMohammad askarizadeh GolamAli mozaffari Ahmad mazidyfacing mankind ( Ipcc,2008 ). Infact one of the important aspects of climate change is understanding its behavior To have an outlook on future projections of climate extremes part Changes in extreme climate events has significant effects which caused a it to become as t Morefacing mankind ( Ipcc,2008 ). Infact one of the important aspects of climate change is understanding its behavior To have an outlook on future projections of climate extremes part Changes in extreme climate events has significant effects which caused a it to become as the most important challenges icularly precipitation, the outputs derived from three coupled general circulation models (HadCM3, CNCM3, NCCCSM) contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCAR4, under A1B emission scenarios have been downscaled by LARS-WG during three period 2011-2030, 2046-2065 for Sabzevar, station. The extremes are described by seven indices based on precipitation including (PRCPTOT,R10mm, R20mm,R95p,R99p,RX1day,RX5day,SDII) Results show that averages of Rx5day and SDII during The period of 2011-2030 will be probably increase under A2 sceranario . Inddition , alarge fraction of total annual precipitation is progected to occure in The form of heavy and showery events in 95th and 99th percentile . Regarding to The resultso incroases of 95th and 99th indices means That The frequency of flash floode and its intencity will be increased during 2011-2030 . Howerer , the intencity of precipitation and SDII will be probably to decreabse during2046-2064. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Investigation of Rainfall and Air Temperature Changes Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change (Case study: Shahrekord)
Zohre Izadi Ali Heidar Nasrollahi Bizhan Haghighati BorujeniIn this research outputs of the general circulation model HadCM3 under the three climatic change scenarios A1, B1 and A1B are downscaled using LARS-WG model in Shahrekord synoptic weather station and the results were evaluated for the base period (1971-1995) and the fut MoreIn this research outputs of the general circulation model HadCM3 under the three climatic change scenarios A1, B1 and A1B are downscaled using LARS-WG model in Shahrekord synoptic weather station and the results were evaluated for the base period (1971-1995) and the future periods 2011-2030 and 2046-2065 for weather parameters of temperature and precipitation. The results of prediction of the model in future periods indicate that the maximum and minimum temperatures increase for all months and scenarios in the study area compared to the base period. Accordingly, the maximum increase in maximum and minimum monthly temperatures was 3.62 and 3.55 °C, respectively, which was observed under the A1B scenario during 2046-2065. Although, the results of the model for the precipitation were very fluctuating and no specific order was observed. However, rainfall decreased in the vegetative seasons of the plants, especially in spring and April and May. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - Effect of climate change on phenological stages and growth stages of wheat in Zabol region
Hamid Mohammadi Mahmoud Ramroudi Mohammad Bannayan Mohammadreza Asghripour Hamid Reza FanaeeClimate change can affect the crop yield and water consumption in agriculture by changing duration of phenological stage, crop yield and evapotranspiration. In this research a number of GCM models were selected and forecasted annual mean temperature of the region was va MoreClimate change can affect the crop yield and water consumption in agriculture by changing duration of phenological stage, crop yield and evapotranspiration. In this research a number of GCM models were selected and forecasted annual mean temperature of the region was validated. The climate models forecast 2 to 5 °C by the end of this century in Zabol. Therefore, three temperature scenarios (zero, +2 and +5), representing no temperature change, the minimum temperature increasing and the maximum temperature increasing, respectively were added to the observed data temperature. The effect of climate change was examined on duration the growth season and phonological stages of wheat (Triticum aestivum), as well as evapotranspiration in Zabol based on planting date and conventional variety. The GDD method was used for calculating the phonologic stages. Hargreaves – Samani model was used for measuring the effect of climate change scenarios on evapotranspiration. Results showed that 2 °C increasing temperature by the end of the century reduced growth duration of wheat by 14 days compared to no temperature change. In addition, early growth evapotranspiration decreased by 20 percent. Increasing 5 °C decrease growth duration of wheat by 32 days and increasing early evapotranspiration by 46 % growth in region. Climate change influenced wheat culture in region. Coping with these changes require planning for production components change according to today's conditions or define new conditions based on adaptive patterns. Manuscript profile
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