Detection of Climate Change in Dez River Basin using Dynamical Downscaling

Subject Areas : Climatology

SIMA RAHIMI BONDARABADI ¹ , Massoud Goodarzi ² , Tayeb raziei ³

1 - Assistant Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, Tehran, Iran
2 - Associate Professor of Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, Tehran, Iran
3 - Assistant Professor of Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, Tehran, Irane.

Received: 2020-12-22 Accepted : 2021-08-23 Published : 2021-10-23

Keywords: Climate Change, Downscaling, Dez basin, climate change model, PRECIS model,

Abstract :

Any changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing imbalance status in system components. However, these changes along whit their effects the future should be simulated. There are different methods for the use of climate models is the most reliable.Here in this research, climate change status in Dez river basin where a major basin for water and agricultural yields is studied. For this purpose, the PRECIS model was used. PRECIS is an exponential dynamics downscaling model used to estimate the temperature and precipitation rates for the period of 2070 to 2100 under A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the results of climate change assessment under scenario A2 for Dez river basin, precipitation would decrease up to 22% and up to 5 degrees centigrade would rise in average maximum and minimum temperature while concerning B2 scenario, a decrease in precipitation up to 33% and a rise in temperature rise up to 3°C are estimated.

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