The Impact of Climate Change and Land use on Soil Erosion Risk using the RUSLE Model (Case Study: Gorganrood Watershed)
Subject Areas : Optimal management of water and soil resources
Saleh Arekhi
1
(Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, University of Golestan, Gorgan, Iran.)
Mohammad Baratzadeh
2
(MSc. Graduated in Surveying Engineering, Department of Surveying Engineering, Faculty of Engineering Lamei Gorgani Institute of Higher Education, Gorgan, Iran)
Sayed Hussein Roshun
3
(Ph.D. Watershed Management Science and Engineering, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources of Sari University, Sari, Iran.)
Keywords: Soil loss, land use changes, downscaling, LARS-WG model, Gorganroud watershed,
Abstract :
Introduction: Soil erosion and its impacts on the earth's resources are significant concerns in many countries. The most important effects of soil erosion are loss of soil fertility, water pollution, reduction of agricultural productions and reduction of dam’s useful life. The present study aims to predict the future effects of climate change and land use change on the soil erosion intensity and potential in the Gorganroud watershed. The erosion rates were compared with the RUSLE model in three different scenarios: future climate change, future land use change, and a combination of climate and land use changes for erosion rates in base period.
Methods: Initially, weather data (temperature and precipitation) from existing stations in the catchment area were collected for a 20-year statistical period (2001-2020). The normality, homogeneity, and randomness of the data were examined using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and run tests, respectively. To address statistical deficiencies, a regression method was employed in SPSS software. The statistical downscaled data from the general circulation model and synthetic data were generated for the future period (2021-2040) using the AIB, A2, and B1 scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, and moderate, respectively) in the LARS-WG model based on the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and two models, HADCM3 and GFCM21. Additionally, the land use map of the catchment area was prepared using Landsat 7 and 8 satellite images for the years 2001, 2010, and 2020 and evaluated through Google Earth. Finally, the CA-Markov model in the IDRISI Selva software was used to simulate future land use changes. Soil loss values for the current period and under climate and land use change scenarios were also calculated based on the RUSLE model.
Results: The results showed that soil erosion rates increase under climate change scenarios compared to the base period. Land use changes and coverage will also shift towards a decrease in dense and semi-dense forest areas and an increase in pastures and residential areas. The results indicated that the average annual soil erosion rate in the base period is 41.96 tons per hectare per year. With the consideration of A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, the erosion rate will increase by 2-4% compared to the base period. By considering the simulated land use in 2040 and the A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, the erosion rate will increase by 7.5%, 25.5%, and 73.1%, respectively, due to the reduction in natural coverage.
Conclusion: The results showed that land use changes have the most significant impact on soil erosion rates, and therefore, proper management of cover can mitigate the increasing trend of soil erosion in the Gorganroud catchment area. The largest share of land use in creating erosion is related to semi-dense forest use with an average of 115.04 ton/ha/year and dense forest use without considering residential areas has the lowest share with an average value of 51.39 ton/ha/year.
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