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Open Access Article
1 - Model forecasts for inflation and economic growth rate futures approach and Gray Markov method
Mohammad Reza Yavarzadeh Ebrahim Hajiani Amir NazmiAccurate forecasts with zero error, regardless of the considered area and topics, are very difficult and almost impossible especially in forecasting process, in a very complex environment and through the thick cloud of uncertainties and several driving forces who affect MoreAccurate forecasts with zero error, regardless of the considered area and topics, are very difficult and almost impossible especially in forecasting process, in a very complex environment and through the thick cloud of uncertainties and several driving forces who affected the environment, and data and information used in forecasting have ambiguous and grey characteristics.The studies also confirmed that some international institutes have provided more accurate forecasts of macroeconomic variables of Islamic Republic of Iran. In the present study which was conducted by quantitative study, trying by using real data, secondary analysis and documents methods the error of forecasting four international institutes such as The Business Monitor, The Economy Watch, The International Monetary Fund and The World Bank in the time span of 20 years (1993-2013) has been calculated. And also by using the Gary Markov Method and combined methods presented a new model which has based on statistical analysis it is proven that this model has less deviation and forecast error than the separated forecasts of each mentioned international institute. Finally, it suggests a native and reliable model for the functional and operational use in providing more accurate forecast of Iran macroeconomic variables (economic growth rate and Iran's inflation rate) by two national institutes (Iran Statistical Center and IRI Central Bank). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Inflation Targeting: the Impact of it on Inflation Trend in Different Countries around the World
Ahmad Jafari Samimi Sara HanjariThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of inflation targetingon inflation rate in different countries around the world. To do so, thepublished data by the International Monetary Fund in 2007, have beenused. The research findings as a result of testing th MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of inflation targetingon inflation rate in different countries around the world. To do so, thepublished data by the International Monetary Fund in 2007, have beenused. The research findings as a result of testing the mean comparison,(one for all countries, another for each countries individually during1975-2007), indicate that this policy reduce the inflation rate in selectedcountries. Therefore using this policy in other countries which have theprerequisites such as central bank independence is suggested. Also inIran improving central bank independence to adopt inflation targeting forlong-run, emphasized. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Studying the relation between inflation rate and interest rate based on Fisher's theory of the Iranian economy
پرویز سعیدی رضا مظهری حسن ولیانThis paper examines the main macroeconomic variables, including inflation andinterest rates will. Some policymakers and experts believe The increase in interestrates increase production costs and consequently increase the price level and inflation.On the other hand, acc MoreThis paper examines the main macroeconomic variables, including inflation andinterest rates will. Some policymakers and experts believe The increase in interestrates increase production costs and consequently increase the price level and inflation.On the other hand, according to economic theory, Increase in interest rates will rise ininflation rate. The aim of this research is to study relationship inflation rate with oneyear short term interest rate, Three-year medium-term interest rate and Long-terminterest rates(5 years) by using Least squares estimation methods and econometricmodels Fisher is a particular model. Purpose of interest rate in this study, Bank depositinterest rate is to be announced by the Central Bank of Iran And the inflation ratebased on the total index of consumer prices for goods and services in urban areas ofIran where the annual percentage change in prices (inflation) has been calculated bythe Central Bank, Is extracted. Data used in this study for a period of 18 years (1991-2009) is. Results indicate a significant relationship between inflation and interest ratesbe one year. And the inflation rate with The three-year and five years interest rate Notfound a significant relationship. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Survey Of Reduction Procedure Of Facilities Interest Rate And Its Role On Inflation Indicator And Presantiation Apporpriate Pattern For Management And Control In Iran Between 1375-86
منوچهر جفره خدابخش داشگرزاده محمد عقبائیOne of the most important macro-economic variables, the interest rate facilities thathas an important influence on the inflation indicator. So that facilities with higherprofits, cost of capital increases, which will lead to increased production costs.According to the t MoreOne of the most important macro-economic variables, the interest rate facilities thathas an important influence on the inflation indicator. So that facilities with higherprofits, cost of capital increases, which will lead to increased production costs.According to the theory of cost push inflation, increasing production costs, the totalsupply curve moved to the left and provides an increase in inflation.In this research ; first , we evaluate facilities interest rate beetwen 1375-86 andinflation indicator rate by using Vector Autoregressive Regression (VAR) , AutoRegressive Distrebuted Lag (ARDL) and Dichey - Fuller test on the Schwartz -Bayesian ciriterion in long period term and for estimating relationship in theseelements of short term period ; we use Error correction model . correlation method isused in this research and Data gathering is in bibliotheca and documantaries .As a result ; it implies according to statistics experiments ; relation betweenfacilities interest rate and inflation indicator of long term period is expressive and toreduction in facilities interest rate concludes decrease in inflation indicator . in shortterm period this relationsheep is meaningless and reduction in facilities interest ratehas a negligible trace in Iran economy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Evaluating the impact of governments' capital expenditures in the framework of the Crowding-In effect on the return of the stock price index
پیمان اکبری FARZAD Moayeri ali asghar taherabadiThe main problem is to investigate and compare the impact of government capital expenditures on stock returns in the framework of the crowding-in effect in two groups of countries with a high level of development and countries with a medium level of development. In this MoreThe main problem is to investigate and compare the impact of government capital expenditures on stock returns in the framework of the crowding-in effect in two groups of countries with a high level of development and countries with a medium level of development. In this regard, by using Fisher's theory and empirical studies, the stock return rate model was defined for them and estimated using the balanced panel data technique. The results confirmed the positive effect of Crowding-In on the return of the stock price index in both groups of the study countries. In addition, the results showed that the effect of Crowding-In on the performance of the stock price index is not the same in both groups of study countries and it is more in countries with a medium level of development. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - عوامل موثر بر شاخص توسعه مالی در ایران
پریسا محمدی فرید عسکری فرزانه خلیلی -
Open Access Article
7 - رابطه سهم بیمه کارفرما با نرخ تورم و بهای تمامشده کالا و خدمات
وحید فغانی زاده فرید عسکری بامداد پرتوی -
Open Access Article
8 - An investigation of Capital formation and its economic determinants in Iran
اکبر کمیجانی ابوطالب شالچیانThis paper attempts to analyze the role of the main determinants of the capital formation and the behavior of private investment using the descriptive as well as econometric methods. Both the econometric methods and statistical analysis are indicating that most of the m MoreThis paper attempts to analyze the role of the main determinants of the capital formation and the behavior of private investment using the descriptive as well as econometric methods. Both the econometric methods and statistical analysis are indicating that most of the macroeconomic variables do play significant role in explaining the behavior of private investment in Iran. Variables examined for their influence on private investment over the period under study i.e. 1350-1383[1] are as follows: GDP, inflation rate, weighted average of the rate of return on long term deposits, government investment, effective exchange rate and the changes in the banking facilities to private sector. The findings in this paper indicate that Most of these variables, except the rate of return on banking facilities, have had the significant impact on private investment in the same direction as expected Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - “Iran Export Engineering &Technical Services” (Identifying Barriers & Offering Suggestions)
H. Nezakati Alizadeh, F. FarzmAccording to the performed research in the field of engineering & technical services export in Iran .And with consideration of existing problems in this section, 4 effective categories has been identified in main activities with their relevant sub-cat MoreAccording to the performed research in the field of engineering & technical services export in Iran .And with consideration of existing problems in this section, 4 effective categories has been identified in main activities with their relevant sub-categories including: Bank activities; Financing methods; Presenting exchange facilities; Exchange bank guarantee issuing conditions; Establishing international bank relationships; Insurance coverage, Companies capabilities, Machineries & equipments conditions, specialized humans resources abilities; attendance of Iranian consultant companies in target countries; Marketing techniques & approaches used by Iranian exporters; Economic environment (exchange); Exchange rate fluctuation, Internal inflation rate, Government activities; political supports by Government; Cooperation & expediting the administrative affairs by relevant organizations; Governmental rules & regulation stability; Export promotions & awards. And each subcategory has been specified on the basis of testing according to priority. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Identifying the influential macro factors in the creation of non-performing loans by the method of theme analysis, the case study of Bank Mehr Eghtesad
SADEGH ANSARI Seyed Mohammad Hasheminejad Abdolreza TalanehNon-performing loans are a critical factor in assessing the profitability of banks and their influence on the financial system. This research tries to identify the influential macro factors in forming non-performing loans of Bank Mehr Eghtesad branches in the country. T MoreNon-performing loans are a critical factor in assessing the profitability of banks and their influence on the financial system. This research tries to identify the influential macro factors in forming non-performing loans of Bank Mehr Eghtesad branches in the country. This research is qualitative and exploratory based on the type and nature of the data. Therefore, it benefits from the theme analysis method. An interview protocol is used to collect data. Also, in terms of the purpose, it is considered among applied and developmental research. The research population includes 20 persons who are the managers and deputy managers of Bank Mehr Eghtesad branches in the provinces and experts of accounting, economics, financial management, and banking. The participants' method in the interview is an exploratory focus group; the purposeful snowball sampling method is used to define the target groups of informants according to the research topic, problem, and situation. They participated in this study From May to August 2022. The data from the interviews has been analyzed with the help of MAXQDA software to analyze the theme during the three main stages of open, central, and selective coding. The results indicate that in cretating non-performing loans the three significant macro factors of the lack of transparency of administrative laws; inflation rate and profit; the pressures of banking interest groups have had a significant impact compared to other factors. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Providing a Model of the Effect of Uncertainty about the Inflation Rate and More Trust of Managers on the Increase in Investment (Case Study: Fellowship Affiliated Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange)
Houshang Alipour Reza Tehrani Abotorab Alirezaei Ghanbar Abbaspour EsfndanThe main purpose of the present research is to provide a model for the effect of uncertainty about the inflation rate and more trust of managers on the increase in investment. This research is considered to be a practical part of the research. Also, this methodology is MoreThe main purpose of the present research is to provide a model for the effect of uncertainty about the inflation rate and more trust of managers on the increase in investment. This research is considered to be a practical part of the research. Also, this methodology is post-event research. On the other hand, the present study is of descriptive survey type correlation based on regression equations. The statistical population of this research includes all financial distressed companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange between 1390 and 1396. Considering the systematic constraints, the statistical sample of 122 firms among the companies accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange Selected and studied.The results of the analysis showed that in the uncertainty of inflation conditions, the level of double investment of companies is not increased. Also, the results showed that the uncertainty of inflation does not reduce the trustworthiness of corporate managers. On the other hand, the results show that managers with a higher level of trust are more interested in investing twice. Finally, under the uncertainty of inflation, managers with a higher level of trust than those with lower confidence, do not pay more double investment. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on Earnings Response Coefficient using two-factor Fama-McBeth Model
Babak Salem Dezfouly Allah Karam Salehi Alireza Jorjorzadeh Saeed NasiriThe aim of this study is to investigate the effect of Economic Uncertainty on Earnings Response Coefficient of listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. These Four dimensions of Economic Uncertainty in our tests: GDP growth, Inflation rate, Exchange rate and Interest r MoreThe aim of this study is to investigate the effect of Economic Uncertainty on Earnings Response Coefficient of listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. These Four dimensions of Economic Uncertainty in our tests: GDP growth, Inflation rate, Exchange rate and Interest rate. Using ARCH and GARCH for this purpose one hypothesis developed and data on the 142 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange for the period of 1387 to 1396 were analyzed. The regression model using two-factor Fama and McBeth reviews has been tested.The results showed that the concentration of Economic Uncertainty (GDP growth, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate) has significant negative impact on Earnings Response Coefficient. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on Cost Stickiness Behavior
behzad rezazadeh shokrollah khajavi Allah Karam SalehiThe purpose of this research is to study macroeconomic uncertainty measures effect on cost stickiness conducting two steps Fama-Macbeth regression models on listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to estimate macroeconomic uncertainty four measures of GDP gr MoreThe purpose of this research is to study macroeconomic uncertainty measures effect on cost stickiness conducting two steps Fama-Macbeth regression models on listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to estimate macroeconomic uncertainty four measures of GDP growth, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate have been utilized by Arch and Garch models. For this purpose, a hypothesis is developed and the data of108 listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange is analyzed during the period of 2011 to 2019. The research regression model is tested by two steps Fama-Macbeth regression model. Results show a positive significant effect of macroeconomic uncertainty measures (measures of GDP growth, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate) on cost stickiness. Thus, results hold that macroeconomic uncertainty measures increase cost stickiness. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Applying Semi-parametric and Wavelets Methods to Study Persistent Rate of Inflation in Iran
Ahma Jafari Samimi Roozbeh BaloonejadIn this study, the existence of inflation persistent rate is examined in Iran. For this purpose, the degree of fractional integration is estimated by using GPH, Robinson adjustment, Reisen, Whittle, wavelets methods and consumer price index data of Central Bank during 1 MoreIn this study, the existence of inflation persistent rate is examined in Iran. For this purpose, the degree of fractional integration is estimated by using GPH, Robinson adjustment, Reisen, Whittle, wavelets methods and consumer price index data of Central Bank during 1972-2010. The results indicate a persistent rate of inflation in Iran. The stationary and persistence of inflation rate indicates that, by a shock in inflation rate, its effects remains for a long time. This may be considered by economic decision-makers to select appropriate policies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Short-run and Long-run Effects of Exchange Rate on Balance of Payments
Narges Khaton Pirhadi Tavandashti Ali. Dehghni Fatemeh. ZandiThe monetary approach to the balance of payments in Iran has been considered in this research. For this purpose the model of time series, VAR and VECM are employed. Results indicated a two-way causality between money supply and inflation; exchange and inflation rates MoreThe monetary approach to the balance of payments in Iran has been considered in this research. For this purpose the model of time series, VAR and VECM are employed. Results indicated a two-way causality between money supply and inflation; exchange and inflation rates in short-run and long-run. However, the effects of national currency devaluation on export, current account and balance of payments are not verified authentically enough. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - The Oil shocks Effects on macroeconomics variables in some exporter and importer selected Countries
Ebrahim Hosseini nasab Mona mirkazemi modThe Oil shocks in 0847 and its effects on international economics have created many attention on oil increase prices by economists. The oil shocks in 0881 and its asymmetric influences between economic growth and oil shocks economist has focused on this relations. In th MoreThe Oil shocks in 0847 and its effects on international economics have created many attention on oil increase prices by economists. The oil shocks in 0881 and its asymmetric influences between economic growth and oil shocks economist has focused on this relations. In this study we investigated oil shocks effects on economic growth and inflation rate in exporter and importer oil countries. with using panel data method. during 0831-5112 we found that oil shocks fluctuation has significant affect on economic growth and inflation rate in both countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - بررسی تأثیر نااطمینانی تورم بر ساختار سرمایه شرکتهای پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران
رضا تهرانی سارا نجف زاده خویی -
Open Access Article
18 - بررسی تأثیر عوامل اقتصادی بر حجم سپردههای بانکهای خصوصی منتخب در ایران
سعیده صفری مریم رافتی -
Open Access Article
19 - نقش پویاییهای نرخ تورم در سیاست پولی ایران: یک مدل DSGE
یوسف حیاتی کیومرث سهیلی علیرضا عرفانی -
Open Access Article
20 - Optimal inflation rate measurement for minimizing economic inequality: The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach
Alireza Azizi Hashem Zare Abbas Aminifard Jalil Khodaparast ShiraziAbstractFair distribution of income in countries is one of the development indicators of each country. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies for its improvement in order to identify the effect of effective factors on it. In this study, the importance MoreAbstractFair distribution of income in countries is one of the development indicators of each country. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies for its improvement in order to identify the effect of effective factors on it. In this study, the importance of determining the optimal inflation rate with the aim of minimizing income inequality by using the randomized dynamic equilibrium method in Iran between 1997 and 2020 is discussed. The results of the research indicate that the inflation rate is optimized to be 3.74 percent, so that the increase or decrease of inflation of this amount will increase income inequality. Therefore, the government should target its inflation rate with the aim of attaining the minimum inequality, so that the probability of fluctuations (increase or decrease) in inequality will exist. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - تاثیر اندازه شرکت و نرخ تورم بر ساختار سرمایه و سلامت مالی شرکتهای پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، بمبئی و توکیو با تاکید بر نقش استانداردهای بینالمللی گزارشگری مالی
سید محمود قائمی نژاد هیلدا شمس الدینی -
Open Access Article
22 - Investigate the relationship between inflation rateexchange rate and bank interest rates with earnings transparency (Companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange)
mohammad delkhoshLow transparency and poor quality of financial information provides decision-making conditions difficult for investors and makes them ambiguous conditions. Full disclosure, timely and high quality financial information, this information will lead to greater transp MoreLow transparency and poor quality of financial information provides decision-making conditions difficult for investors and makes them ambiguous conditions. Full disclosure, timely and high quality financial information, this information will lead to greater transparency, reduces information asymmetry. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between inflation, exchange rate and interest rate one-year investment with the transparency of corporate profits. In this research to determine earnings transparency of the model Barth et al (2008) have been used. Hypothesis-testing research, using financial data of 121 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2009 to 2014 has taken place.The findings show that between inflation, exchange rate and interest rate one-year investment with accounting transparency there is a significant relationship. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on economic growth and inflation, 1340-1388
A. Tavakoli N. Turquoise F. KarimiThe exchange rate is one of important macroeconomics indices which its fluctuation has large effects on economic growth and inflation rate. Therefore, the policymakers should take into account when analyzing exchange rate behavior.Applying the econometrics of OLS MoreThe exchange rate is one of important macroeconomics indices which its fluctuation has large effects on economic growth and inflation rate. Therefore, the policymakers should take into account when analyzing exchange rate behavior.Applying the econometrics of OLS and SUR methods, the present study uses a yearly time series of 1961 to 2009 to estimate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Iranian economic growth and inflation rate. Both methods of Cover (1992) and GARCH are applied to calculate the fluctuations. In addition to the exchange rate fluctuations, the effects of oil price fluctuations, calculated using a GARCH method, is included in the model. The effect of exchange rate and oil price fluctuations along with other policy variables such as money liquidity and government expenditures are considered in the model.The estimated results show that the exchange rate and oil price fluctuations affect the economic growth and inflation rate:The positive and negative exchange rate fluctuations have direct effect on economic growth.The positive and negative exchange rate fluctuations have negative and positive effects on inflation rate, respectively.The (expected) exchange rate changed has a positive effect on the economic growth. This effect on inflation rate is negative.The oil price fluctuations have a positive effect on economic growth but a negative effect on inflation rate.Taking into account of both money liquidity and government expenditure changes, the effect of liquidity change is positive on economic growth and inflation rate, whereas; the government expenditure change only affects the economic growth positively. Overall, the effect of liquidity change overcomes the effect of government expenditure. Comparing the effects of exchange rate and oil price changes on economic growth and inflation, the impact effect of exchange rate changes is more pronounce. Manuscript profile
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