Model forecasts for inflation and economic growth rate futures approach and Gray Markov method

Subject Areas : Futurology

Mohammad Reza  Yavarzadeh ¹ (Ph.D. Student in Futures Studies, Humanities and Social Science Institute, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author))
Ebrahim  Hajiani ² (Center for Strategic Research, Iran, Tehran)
Amir  Nazmi ³ (Assistant Professor, Futures studies Dept., National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP))

Received: 2016-10-10 Accepted : 2016-12-22 Published : 2017-05-22

Keywords: Inflation Rate, Economic Growth Rate Uncertain, Gary Markov Forecast,

Abstract :

Accurate forecasts with zero error, regardless of the considered area and topics, are very difficult and almost impossible especially in forecasting process, in a very complex environment and through the thick cloud of uncertainties and several driving forces who affected the environment, and data and information used in forecasting have ambiguous and grey characteristics.The studies also confirmed that some international institutes have provided more accurate forecasts of macroeconomic variables of Islamic Republic of Iran. In the present study which was conducted by quantitative study, trying by using real data, secondary analysis and documents methods the error of forecasting four international institutes such as The Business Monitor, The Economy Watch, The International Monetary Fund and The World Bank in the time span of 20 years (1993-2013) has been calculated. And also by using the Gary Markov Method and combined methods presented a new model which has based on statistical analysis it is proven that this model has less deviation and forecast error than the separated forecasts of each mentioned international institute. Finally, it suggests a native and reliable model for the functional and operational use in providing more accurate forecast of Iran macroeconomic variables (economic growth rate and Iran's inflation rate) by two national institutes (Iran Statistical Center and IRI Central Bank).