List of Articles scenario writing

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  1 - Presenting a model for increasing the Environmental Resilience of Kanarak city against Floods Caused by Tropical Storms with an emphasis on Futures Studies
  Ebrahim Forozan Mehr azadeh arbabi sabzevari Fatemeh Adibi Saadinejad
  Today, the Resilience of cities against natural Hazards has become one of the important topics in Urban Management. On the other hand, paying attention to this issue from the point of view of future research has made it easier to plan to improve the future situation, . More

  Today, the Resilience of cities against natural Hazards has become one of the important topics in Urban Management. On the other hand, paying attention to this issue from the point of view of future research has made it easier to plan to improve the future situation, . The statistical population of this research included relevant experts and elites, who according to the objectives of the research and to achieve the desired model with a future research approach through interviews with elites and experts and using a non-random purposeful sampling method (in a predetermined manner) done), and finally the number of 15 people was obtained. In order to identify the key drivers, structural analysis method (interaction effects) in the form of MICMAC software was also used for scenario writing using Scenario Wizard software. The findings of the research showed that the drivers of "Surface Water Collection Channel" will have the most influence through their alternative futures (probable state) on other drivers in determining the futures, and the drivers of "Changing the Structure of Organizations" Based on the Relationship of Alternative futures, it has received the most influence from other alternative futures. Also, the drivers of Flood Zoning Map, "Early Warning System of Natural Hazards and (GIS) and It has been Alternative futures of that part Intermittent propellants. Manuscript profile
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  2 - Implikimet e sigurisë të pavarësisë së rajonit të Kurdistanit të Irakut në zonat kufitare perëndimore të vendit
  hannaneh darashti alireza najafi
  The national security of any country is a function of the set of internal developments and movements of the security environment of that country. The issue of the Kurds and the events related to them is one of the most important political issues in the Middle East. The More

  The national security of any country is a function of the set of internal developments and movements of the security environment of that country. The issue of the Kurds and the events related to them is one of the most important political issues in the Middle East. The main problem of the researcher in this research is that what are the most effective scenarios of the security consequences of the Iraqi Kurdistan region on the western border regions of the country for a period of 5 years. Accordingly, the main goal of this research is to design the scenarios of the security consequences of the Iraqi Kurdistan region on the western border regions. It is the country. . The result of the evaluation of the eight designed scenarios shows that Kurdistan, on the part of the world powers, raises the tension between the countries with Kurdish minority and the integration between the Kurdish minority in the neighboring countries, the best situation for declaring and implementing the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan and for the security of the west of the country is dangerous and the scenario that is opposite to this scenario It is possible (non-recognition by world powers, alignment of countries with Kurdish minority and differences among Kurds in the region) is the best scenario that indicates the lack of independence of Kurds. Manuscript profile