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Open Access Article
1 - Compare effect of monetary and fiscal policy effect on stock market bubble within DSGE model in Iran stock market
Kiomars Sohaili Shahram Fattahi Narges RahmanianiThe main goal of this study is compare effect of monetary and fiscal policy effect on stock market bubble within DSGE model in iran stock market. In recent year Iran Stock Exchange has experience a bubble. Fiscal and monetary policies have a roll in bubbles. in this pap MoreThe main goal of this study is compare effect of monetary and fiscal policy effect on stock market bubble within DSGE model in iran stock market. In recent year Iran Stock Exchange has experience a bubble. Fiscal and monetary policies have a roll in bubbles. in this paper we have investigated a effect of monetary and fiscal polies in bubble. In this paper we consider a general equilibrium model to find effect of monetary and fiscal shocks in Iran Stock Exchange we use a Dynar software to evaluate the research and using the seasonal data from 1995-2014. The result has shown: that first, monetary policy shocks has increased interest of investment in Iran Stock Exchange. therefore Tobin's Q will increase and bubble will increase. Second, as result of fiscal policy shocks through increase in government spending, investing in financial markets like Iran Stock Exchange will decrease and price of stocks will decrease. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - تبیین آثار سیاست مالی و کسری بودجه بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران: نامتقارنی و غیرخطی بودن
سید علیرضا علوی باجگانی کامبیز پیکارجو کامبیز هژبر کیانی تقی ترابی -
Open Access Article
3 - Study of Effects of Fiscal Policies in IRAN with an Emphasis on Macro-economic Environment
Elham gholami Kambiz Hozhabr KianiThis paper seeks to answer the question whether macroeconomic environment in the event of fiscal policies shocks will affect their efficiency. For this purpose, a two-stage approach and data during years 1357 to 1391 are used. First, fiscal policy shocks were recognized MoreThis paper seeks to answer the question whether macroeconomic environment in the event of fiscal policies shocks will affect their efficiency. For this purpose, a two-stage approach and data during years 1357 to 1391 are used. First, fiscal policy shocks were recognized as the residuals from estimating of first-order autoregressive model for government spending and tax revenues. Next, the shocks were considered as explanatory variables in the specified function. In addition, narrative approach is used to demonstrate the effects of economic position on the efficiency of identified shocks have been used by traditional methods. Thus, the macroeconomic environment on the basis of the key macroeconomic variables including money growth, inflation and unemployment to economic good and bad conditions is separated and composed using a combined dummy variable in the model. The results show the efficiency of government spending and tax shocks is dependent to the macroeconomic environment. JELClassification: K34, H21, C33 Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Explaining the Nonlinear Effects of Government Fiscal Policy Instruments on Iran's Economic Growth in Times of Recession and Recession
shadi zandavar fatemeh zandi mohammad khezri mahnaz rabieiهدف این مقاله بررسی اثرگذاری سیاست مالی دولت بر رشد اقتصادی ایران طی دوره زمانی 1384:1-1397:1 با تواتر فصلی با استفاده از مدل مارکوف سوییچینگ است. نتایج حاصل از نسبت راست نمایی نشان داد سیاست مالی در ایران از نظام چرخشی مارکف تبعیت می‌کند. نتایج برای برخی از انواع مالی Moreهدف این مقاله بررسی اثرگذاری سیاست مالی دولت بر رشد اقتصادی ایران طی دوره زمانی 1384:1-1397:1 با تواتر فصلی با استفاده از مدل مارکوف سوییچینگ است. نتایج حاصل از نسبت راست نمایی نشان داد سیاست مالی در ایران از نظام چرخشی مارکف تبعیت می‌کند. نتایج برای برخی از انواع مالیات‌ها حاکی از متفاوت بودن تاثیرگذاری در حالت وجود نفت بوده است. در واقع خود نشان از اهمیت بررسی تاثیر مالیات‌ها به تفکیک بر رشد اقتصادی می-باشد. چنانچه دولت قصد اجرای سیاست مالی انبساطی از نوع افزایش مخارج را داشته باشد، بهتر است در رژیم رکودی این عمل صورت پذیرد زیرا تاثیر معناداری در این شرایط بر رشد اقتصادی ندارد. اما چنانچه سیاست مالی انبساطی از نوع کاهش مالیات‌ها مدنظر باشد بایستی بسته به نوع مالیات، بسته به سطح درآمدهای نفتی و همچنین رژیم حاکم بر رشد اقتصادی این مهم صورت پذیرد.طبقه‌بندی .G10, E62, C13:JEL واژگان کلیدی: اثرات غیرخطی، ابزارهای سیاست مالی، رشد اقتصادی ایران. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Unemployment and Inflation in Provinces of Iran: A GVAR Approach
Nasrin Ebrahimi Mehdi Pedram Mir Hussein MousaviAbstract Since Iran is a regionally dispersed country, this motivates us to analyze whether or not a national fiscal policy has different effects on its provinces’ unemployment and inflation rates using a GVAR approach during 2005:q1-2016:q1 period. The results in MoreAbstract Since Iran is a regionally dispersed country, this motivates us to analyze whether or not a national fiscal policy has different effects on its provinces’ unemployment and inflation rates using a GVAR approach during 2005:q1-2016:q1 period. The results indicate that one positive standard error as national fiscal shock can significantly reduce unemployment in some provinces. These responses are similar in terms of timing but their amount is different. Also, this positive shock has a negative effect on inflation in some provinces. All responses are approximately similar in terms of timing. In Spite of this similarity, shock responses vary in terms of amount. According to the results in the framework of the models designed in this study, it is proposed that policymakers include the decentralization in the budget planning. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - The Welfare Computation under Different Fiscal Policies in an Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Model Framework
hosein marzban zahra dehghan parviz rostamzadeh hamidreza izadiThe aim of this paper is computing the welfare under different fiscal policies by using of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in an optimal monetary and fiscal policy framework for the Iran's economy. In order to investigating the effects of using tax MoreThe aim of this paper is computing the welfare under different fiscal policies by using of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in an optimal monetary and fiscal policy framework for the Iran's economy. In order to investigating the effects of using tax instruments some different scenarios were provided. First scenario, the case with all taxes available, Second scenario, the case without consumption taxes, third scenario, the case of income and consumption taxes. The results indicate that the number of fiscal policy instruments available to the planner, plays an important role in the welfare changes in the optimal monetary and fiscal policy model. The minimum welfare loss occurs in last scenario and the maximum of welfare loss is related to second scenario. The proposal is that planner deal with determining polices in an optimum fiscal and monetary policy model, regarding available fiscal policy instruments and effects from economic shocks on welfare changes. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - The Role of Tendency of Government Preference in an Optimal Fiscal Policy Model in the Presence of Agent Heterogeneity in A dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Framework
hamidreza izadiAbstract This paper examines an optimal fiscal policy model in the presence of agents heterogeneous in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Therefore, the presence of heterogeneous agents in the model led MoreAbstract This paper examines an optimal fiscal policy model in the presence of agents heterogeneous in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Therefore, the presence of heterogeneous agents in the model led to create limitation that will be call government preference. The role of these preferences and tendency of the Government to the poor or the rich group can change the results of optimal policies on the economy. By using a dynamic stochastic general model, the role of government preferences tendency was been surveyed. The results indicate that in these models, the role of government expenditure financing through available taxes in the policymaking system, is partly dependent on the government preferences tendency. On the bases of the results, it is suggested that separating the government preferences and tendency in relation to the poor and the rich. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - Investigating the Effects of Governmental Expenditure Shock on Gross Domestic Product Growth in Iran: ARDL Approach
jafar haghighat nazila moharam joudiThe aim of this paper is investigating the effects of governmental expenditure shock on GDP in Iran’s economy. In order to achieve this aim, at first, the model of effective factors on governmental expenditure has been explained, and governmental expenditure MoreThe aim of this paper is investigating the effects of governmental expenditure shock on GDP in Iran’s economy. In order to achieve this aim, at first, the model of effective factors on governmental expenditure has been explained, and governmental expenditure shock is captured by the model residuals. Then the model of effective factors on GDP is estimated from 1971 to 2014. In estimating the models, autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) approach has been used. According to the results, the effect of governmental current expenditure on GDP is not significant. But lagged government expenditure shock has a positive and significant impact on GDP. Error correction term is negative and significant, and indicates that when a shock occurs, 12 percent of short term imbalance is adjusted each period, to reach the long term equilibrium. It is purposed to government not to increase own expenditure, since this can cause an inverse relationship between government expenditure and GDP and it reduces economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - برآورد ضرایب فزاینده مالی ایران در مقایسه تطبیقی با کشورهای منتخب منا
مهناز حسین پور کامبیز هژبر کیانی فاطمه زندی علی دهقانی خلیل سعیدی -
Open Access Article
10 - The Role of Business Cycles in Determining Fiscal Policy Multiplier (with Emphasis on Direct and Indirect Taxes): A Case Study of the Iranian Economy
Yousef Moradi Kiumars Shahbazi Soleiman Feizi GanjeAbstract The Purpose of This Study Is to Investigate the Impact of Fiscal Policy On Economic Growth and to Estimate the Fiscal Multiplier During Business Cycles. For This Purpose, Quarterly Data of Iran's Economy Has Been Used During the Period 1993 To 2018. Three Meth MoreAbstract The Purpose of This Study Is to Investigate the Impact of Fiscal Policy On Economic Growth and to Estimate the Fiscal Multiplier During Business Cycles. For This Purpose, Quarterly Data of Iran's Economy Has Been Used During the Period 1993 To 2018. Three Methods Are Used to Estimate the Fiscal Multiplier. 1) Vector Auto-Regression Models Based On Blanchard and Perotti Method 2002, 2- Regression Based Method Introduced by Hall 2009 And 3- Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models. In The Present Study, Is Used the Second Method and Markov Switching Model, Which Is Based On Regression Specification, To Calculate the Fiscal Multiplier During Business Cycles. Therefore, By Specifying Five Different Models, Such That In Model Number 1, Direct Taxes, In Model Number 2, Indirect Taxes, In Model Number 3, Government Expenditures, In Model Number 4, Government Expenditures and Direct Taxes and In Model 5 Government Expenditures and Indirect Taxes Are Considered As Fiscal Policy Tools. The Results Showed That Direct Taxes Perform Better in Effect of Economic Growth Than Indirect Taxes. Also, Among The Three Instruments of Government Spending and Direct and Indirect Taxes, The Largest Multiplier in The Recession and Boom Period Is Related to Government Spending and Direct Taxes, Respectively. On The Other Hand, The Government's Fiscal Policy Package, Which Contains Indirect Taxes and Expenditures, Works Better in Influencing Economic Growth Than the Package, Which Contains Direct Taxes and Expenditures. Manuscript profile
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