Investigating the effect of oil price shocks on tourism income and economic growth in Iran with the Structural Vector Auto regression method (SVAR)
Subject Areas :Aziz Arefniya 1 , Mohammad Sokhanvar 2
1 - Master's student of economic sciences, faculty of economics and management, Islamic Azad University, Urmia branch
2 - Assistant Prof., Department of Economics, Urmia Branch, Islamic Azad University, Urmia, Iran (Corresponding Author)
Keywords: Oil price shocks, Economic growth, Tourism income,
Abstract :
The tourism industry is the largest and most diverse industry in the world. The impact of tourism on the increase of employment and foreign exchange earnings, the prosperity of domestic industries, the expansion of international cooperation has caused the attitude of the countries of the world towards its border to change and find an important place in government policies. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on tourism income and economic growth in Iran with the structural vector autoregression approach. For this purpose, the time series information of Iran's economy during the period 1991-2021 was used. In terms of data analysis, this research is of a descriptive-analytical correlation type and is practical in terms of purpose. The data of this study is collected by library method and modeling is done by econometric method and combined data model or panel modeling. Finally, to analyze the data and information, EVIEWS 13 software will be used. The results obtained from the estimation of the model show that the impulses from the oil price have had a positive effect on the tourism income of Iran. Also, the increase in the consumer price index has had a positive and significant impact on the tourism revenues of Iran. In addition, the obtained results show that at the probability level of 0.000 and with a coefficient of 0.0308, government expenditures had a positive and significant relationship with the country's tourism revenues.
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