Estimating the Impact of Education Level on Unemployment in Iran Using the LOGIT Model
Subject Areas :
1 - Ph.D Student of the Faculty of Management and Economics. Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
Keywords: Education, Employment, Unemployment, Logit Model,
Abstract :
Employment and unemployment are among the most significant economic indicators of any country. so that increasing employment and reducing unemployment are considered key criteria for the development of societies. Therefore, examining the factors affecting unemployment is essential for evaluating a country's economic conditions. The education system and the economic system have a reciprocal and interactive relationship, particularly in higher education, which plays a crucial role in supplying specialized human resources for the economy. Consequently, the level of education is one of the determining factors of the unemployment rate in all countries. In this study, the impact of education level on unemployment in Iran is analyzed using the Logit model. The data are extracted from the 2016 Census of Population and Housing. In addition to the education variable, other socio-demographic factors, including gender, marital status, and place of residence (urban or rural), are incorporated into the model. The estimation and data analysis are conducted using Stata software. The findings indicate that, overall, higher levels of education reduce the probability of unemployment. However, individuals with a bachelor’s degree experience longer unemployment durations compared to other educational groups. This finding highlights the challenges of the Iranian labor market in absorbing university graduates and suggests a potential mismatch between educational qualifications and labor market demands. Moreover, the analysis reveals that gender, marital status, and urbanization have significant effects on unemployment probabilities. Specifically, men are more likely to be unemployed than women, single individuals face higher unemployment risks compared to married individuals, and rural residents have a higher likelihood of being unemployed than urban dwellers. The findings emphasize the need for reforming educational and employment policies to enhance skill training, strengthen the link between academia and industry, and develop job opportunities that align with academic qualifications. These measures can help reduce unemployment rates among educated individuals.
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