The foresight of Book in Iran
Subject Areas : Journal of Cultural Management
mohammad sarshar
1
,
seyyed reza salehi amiri
2
,
ebrahim hajiani
3
1 - Department Cultural Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad university, Tehran, Iran
2 - Department of Cultural Management, Science and Research Unit, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Faculty Member/ Strategic Research Center
Keywords: Foresight, Structural Analysis, Book, Micmac method, Driver,
Abstract :
Books are the largest cultural arena in Iran and an important part of Iran's cultural future will be the future of books. The purpose of this study is to foresight books in Iran. This future study is based on the structural analysis model by Micmac method and in eight stages: "Identification of environmental variables to PESTEL model and layered approach", "Determination of key variables by Delphi expert method", "Assessing the interactions of key variables by Mikmak method" and "General environment analysis" "System and determination of drivers", "determination of uncertainty axes", "identification of sustainable scenarios", "description of scenarios" and "suggestion of actions".The findings of this study show ""the extent of government intervention in the field of books", "promoting the culture of reading non-textbooks", "the quality of books and their compliance with the needs and tendencies of the audience", "the role of the Ministry of Education "Culture of reading and fighting illiteracy and illiteracy", "Public libraries' budget for library construction, book purchase and librarian training" and "Self-sufficiency in the internal chain of paper production and book printing costs" are the most effective future drivers of books in Iran. The future map of the situation of books in Iran. But the worst case scenario of the future of the book in Iran is known as the most stable scenario. As a result, achieving the desired scenario requires a fundamental change in the government's approach to the field of books.
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