تحولات و پویایی‌های بخش جنوبی محیط پیرامونی ج.ا.ایران؛ دلایل و زمینه‌ها

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی تحقیقات سیاسی و بین المللی

امیرحسین نعمتی ¹ , علیرضا نائیج ² , جلال ترکاشوند ³

1 - استادیار علوم سیاسی و روابط بین الملل دانشگاه امام علی (ع)تهران، ایران
2 - دکتری روابط بین الملل ؛ پژوهشگر پژوهشکده مطالعات منطقه ای پژوهشگاه بین المللی المصطفی
3 - استادیار علوم سیاسی و روابط بین الملل دانشگاه افسری امام علی (ع)

تاریخ دریافت : 1401/10/06 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/02/20 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/03/01

کلید واژه: جمهوری اسلامی ایران, سیاست خارجی, موازنه منافع, رندال شولر, کشورهای عربی حاشیه خلیج فارس,

چکیده مقاله :

چکیدهخاورمیانه به دلیل موقعیت جغرافیایی، منابع نفتی و مکان‌های مقدس یکی از مهمترین مناطق جهان است. ایران به عنوان یکی از کشورهای مهم در این منطقه در بخش جنوبی محیط پیرامونی خود با مجموعه‌ای از کشورهای عربی همسایه است که از موقعیت ویژه برخوردار می‌باشند. اختلافات قومی، ایدئولوژیکی و سرزمینی، رقابت برای رهبری جهان عرب، جنگ‌های نیابتی، نزدیکی به اسرائیل، ائتلاف‌سازی‌ها و رقابت قدرت‌های بزرگ از جمله مهمترین تحولات و پویایی‌ها در این محیط پیرامونی است که ریشه‌یابی علل و زمینه‌های شکل‌گیری این پویایی‌ها از اهمیت خاص برخوردار است. با توجه به این اهمیت، مقاله حاضر می‌کوشد تا با مفروض گرفتن شکل‌گیری تحولات مورد اشاره، با استفاده از روش قیاسی-فرضیه‌ای و مبتنی بر موازنه منافع رندال شولر در چارچوب نظری رئالیسم نئوکلاسیک ضمن پر کردن شکاف موجود مطالعاتی به این سئوال مهم پاسخ دهد که دلایل و زمینه‌های شکل گیری تحولات و پویایی‌ها حاضر در بخش جنوبی محیط پیرامونی جمهوری اسلامی ایران چیست؟یافته حاصل از این پژوهش که مبتنی بر اثبات فرضیه متصور می‌باشد آن است که دولت در کشورهای عربی همزمان متاثر از چندین عامل مهم در سطوح داخلی و ساختاری باعث بروز تحولات و پویایی‌های مهم در بخش جنوبی محیط پیرامونی جمهوری اسلامی ایران شده است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

As one of the important countries in the Middle East, the Islamic Republic of Iran is in the southern part of its periphery with a series of neighboring Arab countries that enjoy a special position. Ethnic, ideological and territorial differences, competition for the leadership of the Arab world, proxy wars, closeness to Israel, alliances and competition of great powers are among the most important developments and dynamics in this region, and it is of particular importance to find the root causes and grounds for the formation of these dynamics. The present article tries to answer this important question by assuming the formation of the mentioned developments, using the analogical-hypothetical method and based on Randall Schweller's balance of interests in the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism, while filling the existing gap in studies. And what are the current dynamics in the southern part of the peripheral environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran?The result of this research is that the government in Arab countries has simultaneously been affected by several important factors at the internal and structural levels, causing important developments and dynamics in the southern part of the peripheral environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

منابع و مأخذ:

-نعمتی، امیرحسین. حاجی یوسفی، امیر محمد. (1398). «تحولات جدید در روابط عربستان سعودی و رژیم صهیونیستی؛ دلایل و زمینه‌ها». فصلنامه آفاق امنیت. سال 12، شماره 44.

Al-Oraibi, (2016). “A new generation of Arabs are changing the status quo”. World Economic Forum. Available at; https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/how-young-people-can-shape-a-better-future-for-the-arab-world/.

Bertuzzi, C. (2021). “The Role of Public Opinion in Normalizing Israeli-Arab Ties”. The Organization for World Peace (OWP). Available at; https://theowp.org/reports/the-role-of-public-opinion-in-normalizing-israeli-arab-ties/.

Bhalla, R. (2011). “The U.S.-Saudi Dilemma: Iran’s Reshaping of Persian Gulf Politics”. Stratford. Available at; https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110718-us-saudi-dilemma-irans-reshaping-persiangulf-politics/. Accessed on 23 July 2011.

Brooke, Sh. (2020). “News Roundup: UAE, Bahrain Normalize relations with Israel”. The Wilson Center, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/news-roundup-uae-bahrain-normalize-relations-israel.

Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2008). World Out of Balance. International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Donald Trump (2017). ‘National Security Strategy of the United States’, Washington DC, December, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.

Fulton; J. (2019). ‘China’s changing role in the Middle East’, Atlantic Council, June,https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wpcontent/uploads/2019/06/Chinas_Changing_Role_in_the_Middle_East.pdf.

Hassan, H. (2013). “The Gulf states: United against Iran, divided over Islamists”. In: The Regional Struggle for Syria. edited by Julien Barnes-Dacey and Daniel Levy. European Council on Foreign Relations. http://archives.cerium.ca/IMG/pdf/Menoret_al-Utaybi_-_Urban_Unrest.pdf

Inbar, Efraim (2016). “Implications of US Disengagement from the Middle East”. BESA. Mideast Security and Policy Studies. No, 122. 14. For alternative approaches on a potential nuclear domino and nuclear balance see Rizwan Ladha, “A Regional Arms Race? Testing the Nuclear Domino Theory in the Middle East”. al Nakhlah, Spring 2012. https://fletcher.tufts.edu/~/media/43f8f8ef81014262ab2a119709e495e3.pdf

Kamarava, D. (2020). “Arab Opinion Toward Iran 2019/2020”. Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies. Available at; https://www.dohainstitute.org/en/Lists/ACRPS-PDFDocumentLibrary/Arab-Opinion-Toward-Iran-2019-2020.pdf

Lise, S. (2022). “Political Dynamics in the Arab World and the Future of Ideologies”. IEMed Mediterranean. Available at; https://www.iemed.org/publication/political-dynamics-in-the-arab-world-and-the-future-of-ideologies/

Michnik, W. (2020). ‘Russia’s new strategic calculus in the Middle East’, in M. Kaczmarski, W. Michnik A. Monaghan, M. Ozawa & V. Rotaru, Russia’s Emerging Global Ambitions, NATO Defence College Research Paper, nr 11, July, p. 23, http://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1457.

Michnik, W. (2021). “Great power rivalry in the Middle East”. Elcano Royal Institute. Available at: https://media.realinstitutoelcano.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/commentary-michnik-great-power-rivalry-in-the-middle-east.pdf. Nadine, M. S. (2013). “Dynamics of Development and Uprisings in the Arab World”. Duke University Press. Available at; https://muse.jhu.edu/article/532907/pdf

Ottaway, M., & Muasher, M. (2011). “Arab Monarchies Chance for Reform, Yet Unmet”. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Available at; https://carnegieendowment.org/files/arab_monarchies1.pdf.

Ratner, M. (2016). “Natural Gas Discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean,”. Congressional Research Service. Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R44591.pdf.

Schweller, R. (2004). “unanswered threats: A neoclassical realist theory of under balancing”. International security. Vol, 29. No, 2.

Vohra, R. (2017). “The Impact of Oil Prices on GCC Economies,”. in International Journal of Business and Social Science. no, 8. Available at; https://ijbssnet.com/journals/Vol_8_No_2_February_2017/2.pdf.

William F. Wechsler. W. F. (2019). ‘US withdrawal from the Middle East: perceptions and reality’, Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/MENA-Region-Great-Power-Competition-Report-Web-2.pdf.

Young, M. (2018). “How Will the New Generation of Arab Leaders Compare to Their Predecessors?”. Carnegie Middle East Center. Available at; https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/77605.

Al-Oraibi, (2016). “A new generation of Arabs are changing the status quo”. World Economic Forum. Available at; https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/how-young-people-can-shape-a-better-future-for-the-arab-world/.

Bertuzzi, C. (2021). “The Role of Public Opinion in Normalizing Israeli-Arab Ties”. The Organization for World Peace (OWP). Available at; https://theowp.org/reports/the-role-of-public-opinion-in-normalizing-israeli-arab-ties/.

Bhalla, R. (2011). “The U.S.-Saudi Dilemma: Iran’s Reshaping of Persian Gulf Politics”. Stratford. Available at; https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110718-us-saudi-dilemma-irans-reshaping-persiangulf-politics/. Accessed on 23 July 2011.

Brooke, Sh. (2020). “News Roundup: UAE, Bahrain Normalize relations with Israel”. The Wilson Center, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/news-roundup-uae-bahrain-normalize-relations-israel.

Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2008). World Out of Balance. International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Donald Trump (2017). ‘National Security Strategy of the United States’, Washington DC, December, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.

Fulton; J. (2019). ‘China’s changing role in the Middle East’, Atlantic Council, June,https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wpcontent/uploads/2019/06/Chinas_Changing_Role_in_the_Middle_East.pdf.

Hassan, H. (2013). “The Gulf states: United against Iran, divided over Islamists”. In: The Regional Struggle for Syria. edited by Julien Barnes-Dacey and Daniel Levy. European Council on Foreign Relations. http://archives.cerium.ca/IMG/pdf/Menoret_al-Utaybi_-_Urban_Unrest.pdf Inbar,

Efraim (2016). “Implications of US Disengagement from the Middle East”. BESA. Mideast Security and Policy Studies. No, 122. 14. For alternative approaches on a potential nuclear domino and nuclear balance see Rizwan Ladha, “A Regional Arms Race? Testing the Nuclear Domino Theory in the Middle East”. al Nakhlah, Spring 2012. https://fletcher.tufts.edu/~/media/43f8f8ef81014262ab2a119709e495e3.pdf

Kamarava, D. (2020). “Arab Opinion Toward Iran 2019/2020”. Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies. Available at; https://www.dohainstitute.org/en/Lists/ACRPS-PDFDocumentLibrary/Arab-Opinion-Toward-Iran-2019-2020.pdf

Lise, S. (2022). “Political Dynamics in the Arab World and the Future of Ideologies”. IEMed Mediterranean. Available at; https://www.iemed.org/publication/political-dynamics-in-the-arab-world-and-the-future-of-ideologies/

Michnik, W. (2020). ‘Russia’s new strategic calculus in the Middle East’, in M. Kaczmarski, W. Michnik A. Monaghan, M. Ozawa & V. Rotaru, Russia’s Emerging Global Ambitions, NATO Defence College Research Paper, nr 11, July, p. 23, http://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1457. Michnik, W. (2021). “Great power rivalry in the Middle East”. Elcano Royal Institute. Available at: https://media.realinstitutoelcano.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/commentary-michnik-great-power-rivalry-in-the-middle-east.pdf.

Nadine, M. S. (2013). “Dynamics of Development and Uprisings in the Arab World”. Duke University Press. Available at; https://muse.jhu.edu/article/532907/pdf

Ottaway, M., & Muasher, M. (2011). “Arab Monarchies Chance for Reform, Yet Unmet”. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Available at; https://carnegieendowment.org/files/arab_monarchies1.pdf.

Ratner, M. (2016). “Natural Gas Discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean,”. Congressional Research Service. Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R44591.pdf.

Schweller, R. (2004). “unanswered threats: A neoclassical realist theory of under balancing”. International security. Vol, 29. No, 2.

Vohra, R. (2017). “The Impact of Oil Prices on GCC Economies,”. in International Journal of Business and Social Science. no, 8. Available at; https://ijbssnet.com/journals/Vol_8_No_2_February_2017/2.pdf. William F. Wechsler. W. F. (2019). ‘US withdrawal from the Middle East: perceptions and reality’, Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/MENA-Region-Great-Power-Competition-Report-Web-2.pdf.

Young, M. (2018). “How Will the New Generation of Arab Leaders Compare to Their Predecessors?”. Carnegie Middle East Center. Available at; https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/77605.