سنجش و ارزیابی تاب‌آوری محیط شهری در برابر خطر زمین‌لرزه با استفاده از تلفیق مدل‌های ANP و OWA (مطالعه موردی: شهر گرمی)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
عقیل مددی
1
(استاد ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران)
الناز پیروزی
2
(دکتری ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران)
زهرا امینی
3
(کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران)
کلید واژه: کالبدی, MCDM, دسترسی, مخاطرات, وزن دهی,
چکیده مقاله :
در حال حاضر به‌دنبال رشد شهرنشینی و افزایش سوانح طبیعی، بررسی و سنجش تاب‌آوری سیستم‌های انسانی و طبیعی در دستیابی به توسعه پایدار از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. بر این اساس، پژوهش حاضر به دنبال سنجش و ارزیابی تاب‌آوری محیط شهری گرمی در برابر خطر زمین‌لرزه می‌باشد. در این پژوهش، با در نظر گرفتن ساختار‌های طبیعی، کالبدی و دسترسی دخیل در برابر زلزله در قالب 15 شاخص، به ارزیابی تاب‌آوری شهر گرمی در مقابل زلزله پرداخته شده است. سپس لایه‌های اطلاعاتی توسط سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی تهیه گردید و در مرحله بعد وزن‌دهی عوامل مورد بررسی با استفاده از فرآیند تحلیل شبکه (ANP) و در محیط نرم افزار Super Decisionانجام شد و مدل‌سازی نهایی، با استفاده از روش میانگین-گیری وزندار ترتیبی (OWA) انجام گردید. نتایج پژوهش نشان‌دهنده آن است که 70/11 از منطقه مورد مطالعه دارای تاب-آوری کاملا مناسب و 17/24 درصد از منطقه از تاب‌آوری کاملا نا‌مناسبی برخوردار است. تاب‌آوری نا‌مناسب، تاب‌آوری متوسط و تاب‌آوری مناسب به ترتیب با 25 درصد، 84/25 درصد و 29/13 درصد سایر پهنه‌ها را شامل می‌شود. به‌طور کلی می‌توان گفت که بخش‌های جنوبی، جنوب‌غربی و بخش‌هایی از شمال‌شرقی شهر گرمی از نظر تاب‌آوری در برابر زلزله در وضعیت نسبتا نا‌مناسبی قرار داشته و در مقابل واحد‌های ساختمانی واقع در بخش‌های شمال و شمال‌غرب این شهر در شرایط مساعد‌تری قرار دارد. با توجه به نقشه نهایی، شهر گرمی از نظر تاب‌آوری در برابر زلزله در موقعیت مطلوبی قرار ندارد و به نوعی از وضعیت متوسط رو به پایین برخوردار است. شهر گرمی از نظر تاب‌آوری در برابر زلزله در موقعیت مطلوبی قرار ندارد و به نوعی از وضعیت متوسط رو به پایین برخوردار است.
At present, following the growth of urbanization and the increase in natural disasters, the study and measurement of the resilience of human and natural systems in achieving sustainable development is of particular importance. Accordingly, the present study seeks to measure and evaluate the resilience of Germi city environment against earthquake risk. In this study, by taking into account the natural, physical and accessible structures involved in reducing the effects of an earthquake in the form of 15 indicators, resilience of Germi city against earthquake is discussed. Then, the information layers were prepared by the geographic information system and in the next step, the weighting of the studied factors was done using the network analysis process (ANP) in Super Decision software environment and the final modeling was done using the ordinal weighted average (OWA) method. The results indicate that 11/70 % of the study area has a quite good resilience and 24.17% of the area has quite inappropriate. Moderate and relatively appropriate resilience percentages are 25 %, 25.84 %, and 13.29 %, respectively. In general, it can be said that the southern, southwestern parts and northeastern city of Germi have relatively inappropriate conditions regarding resilience, whereas construction in the northern and northwestern parts of the city are in better condition. According to the final map, the city of Germi is not in a good position in terms of earthquakes resistance, and it has a kind of medium to low status. According to the final map, the city of Germi is not in a good position in terms of earthquakes resistance, and it has a kind of medium to low status.
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