سنجش و ارزیابی تاب‌آوری محیط شهری در برابر خطر زمین‌لرزه با استفاده از تلفیق مدل‌های ANP و OWA (مطالعه موردی: شهر گرمی)
الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
عقیل مددی
1
(استاد ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران)
الناز پیروزی
2
(دکتری ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران)
زهرا امینی
3
(کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران)
الکلمات المفتاحية: کالبدی, MCDM, دسترسی, مخاطرات, وزن دهی,
ملخص المقالة :
در حال حاضر به‌دنبال رشد شهرنشینی و افزایش سوانح طبیعی، بررسی و سنجش تاب‌آوری سیستم‌های انسانی و طبیعی در دستیابی به توسعه پایدار از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. بر این اساس، پژوهش حاضر به دنبال سنجش و ارزیابی تاب‌آوری محیط شهری گرمی در برابر خطر زمین‌لرزه می‌باشد. در این پژوهش، با در نظر گرفتن ساختار‌های طبیعی، کالبدی و دسترسی دخیل در برابر زلزله در قالب 15 شاخص، به ارزیابی تاب‌آوری شهر گرمی در مقابل زلزله پرداخته شده است. سپس لایه‌های اطلاعاتی توسط سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی تهیه گردید و در مرحله بعد وزن‌دهی عوامل مورد بررسی با استفاده از فرآیند تحلیل شبکه (ANP) و در محیط نرم افزار Super Decisionانجام شد و مدل‌سازی نهایی، با استفاده از روش میانگین-گیری وزندار ترتیبی (OWA) انجام گردید. نتایج پژوهش نشان‌دهنده آن است که 70/11 از منطقه مورد مطالعه دارای تاب-آوری کاملا مناسب و 17/24 درصد از منطقه از تاب‌آوری کاملا نا‌مناسبی برخوردار است. تاب‌آوری نا‌مناسب، تاب‌آوری متوسط و تاب‌آوری مناسب به ترتیب با 25 درصد، 84/25 درصد و 29/13 درصد سایر پهنه‌ها را شامل می‌شود. به‌طور کلی می‌توان گفت که بخش‌های جنوبی، جنوب‌غربی و بخش‌هایی از شمال‌شرقی شهر گرمی از نظر تاب‌آوری در برابر زلزله در وضعیت نسبتا نا‌مناسبی قرار داشته و در مقابل واحد‌های ساختمانی واقع در بخش‌های شمال و شمال‌غرب این شهر در شرایط مساعد‌تری قرار دارد. با توجه به نقشه نهایی، شهر گرمی از نظر تاب‌آوری در برابر زلزله در موقعیت مطلوبی قرار ندارد و به نوعی از وضعیت متوسط رو به پایین برخوردار است. شهر گرمی از نظر تاب‌آوری در برابر زلزله در موقعیت مطلوبی قرار ندارد و به نوعی از وضعیت متوسط رو به پایین برخوردار است.
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