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Open Access Article
1 - Analysis of the Effect of News Shocks Related to the Future Technology on on on Economic Welfare
mohammad alibegli nader mehregan alireza erfaniThe present article aimed to understand the effect of news shocks related to the technology on macroeconomic variables. In this regard, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used to analyze the reaction of macroeconomic variables in Iran based on seasonal d MoreThe present article aimed to understand the effect of news shocks related to the technology on macroeconomic variables. In this regard, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used to analyze the reaction of macroeconomic variables in Iran based on seasonal data during 2001-2021. The results indicate that the news shocks increases the productivity of all production factors within one standard deviation. This increase escalates the wage rate as well as the interest rate. Household consumption, production and investment also increase opposing this shock. Due to the increase in production, the working hours will increase and consequently the inflation will decrease. Moreover, the economic prosperity grows due to the increased consumption and production. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - An analysis of the automatic stabilization of direct and indirect taxes in Iran
mohammad taghi gilak hakim abadi Ali MehreganIn this paper the effect of direct and indirect taxes on the fluctuations of Iran's economic cycles has been studied. To estimate the models of this research, Vector Auto Regression method by quarterly data from q1-1372 to q3-1397. The results of this study are that, un MoreIn this paper the effect of direct and indirect taxes on the fluctuations of Iran's economic cycles has been studied. To estimate the models of this research, Vector Auto Regression method by quarterly data from q1-1372 to q3-1397. The results of this study are that, unlike empirical, direct taxes have not had a significant effect on reducing fluctuations in economic cycles. Also, the effect of indirect taxes on economic cycles is faster than direct taxes. Based on the results, it is suggested to use more of the country's tax capacity to better perform the government's stabilizing task in the economy, especially the reform of tax bases. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Identification of Monetary Policy Items Influencing the Banking System
sorayya rafiee ghareshiran Karim Emami Farhad GhaffariThe purpose of this paper is to identify the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system as one of the most important sectors of macroeconomics. Therefore, the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system using the Dynamic Randomized Equilib MoreThe purpose of this paper is to identify the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system as one of the most important sectors of macroeconomics. Therefore, the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system using the Dynamic Randomized Equilibrium Model (DSGE) and the emergence of long-run macroeconomic ratios in the 1370s and 1380s And others' studies.The results showed that with a positive shock to the interest rate, due to lower demand for loans, the lending rate and, as a result, banks' profits decrease, and due to positive oil shocks, liquidity increases, lending rates and investment increases, and the household's willingness Reduces savings, resulting in lower bank profitability. Based on the results, while considering the importance of the role of financial factors in the transfer mechanism and the intensity of monetary policy effects by policy makers, it is suggested to adopt measures to adjust the effects of economic shocks. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Inflation Behavior of Tradable and Non-Tradable Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Approach
javid bahrami Behnoosh sadat Aghayan esfandiar jahangardAbstract The purpose of this paper is to study the factors affecting Tradable and Non-tradable inflation. Accordingly, Dynamic stochastic General Equilibrium model was used during the period 1991 to 2016. The results of the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) indicate tha MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is to study the factors affecting Tradable and Non-tradable inflation. Accordingly, Dynamic stochastic General Equilibrium model was used during the period 1991 to 2016. The results of the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) indicate that non-tradable inflation is more responsive as a result of shocks. Monetary shock has had the greatest impact on non-tradable inflation, while Exchange rate and monetary shock have the greatest impact on tradable inflation in terms of initial effect and durability respectively. Based on the results, policy makers' attention to the components of inflation is suggested when economic decisions are made. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Study of the Status and Role of Agriculture in Iran Business Cycles
seied abdolmajid jalaie asieh azizi nasibeh zarei hosein mehrabi basharabadiThe purpose of this paper is to extract the components of long-term business cycle trend and irregular impulses of real GDP, and also considering the status of agriculture in Iran business cycle. Real GDP is segregated by using Hodrick–Prescott filter and cyclical MoreThe purpose of this paper is to extract the components of long-term business cycle trend and irregular impulses of real GDP, and also considering the status of agriculture in Iran business cycle. Real GDP is segregated by using Hodrick–Prescott filter and cyclical feature of key variables influencing the business cycle will be analyzed and calculated. Then, by the use of VAR model and response function, the measure of business cycles shock is considered. The results of the business cycle represent that Iran economy has experienced five complete business rounds during 1971-1980. The results show agriculture has a positive and statistically significant impact on GDP gap in long-term. Also, the results of the cross-correlation coefficient indicate that agriculture sector has been a backward variable toward GDP gap during the years 1971-1980 and 1981-1989, but it has been a leading variable during 1990-2008. This indicates that agriculture sector is considered as a driving factor in business cycle during the third period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Comparing the Performance of ARIMA and MS-AR Models to Forecast Business Cycles in Iran
Mehdi Fazel Akbar Tavakoli Mostafa RajabiIt is clear that business cycles are inevitable in economy. On the other hand, the economists are always looking for how to form business cycles and so under the effect of economic policies, since the economic situation is depended to these policies. Therefore, the acce MoreIt is clear that business cycles are inevitable in economy. On the other hand, the economists are always looking for how to form business cycles and so under the effect of economic policies, since the economic situation is depended to these policies. Therefore, the access to more precise business cycles forecasting methods would direct and manage the economic situation and policies powerfully. Hence, the main objective of this study is to construct a new model based on Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) model to forecast the business cycles in Iran. In addition, the model constructed is compared to ARIMA to represent its power. GDP data seasonally covers the period 1989: I – 2009: IV collected from Central Bank of Iran. MS-AR and ARIMA models are applied to forecast the behavior of business cycles. By using MAPE, RMSE and Theil criteria (TIC), the results indicate that MS-AR model will work better than ARIMA to forecast GDP business cycles. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Studying Recessions and Booms in Iran Economy by Using Markov Switching Model
Morteza Salehi Sarbijan gholam ali Reisi Nader Shetab BooshehriIn this paper, by using the nonlinear model of Hamilton Markov switching, the possible features of circular pattern are considered in Iran by a seasonally adjusted real GDP during 1988-2008. The results represent that business cycles extracted from Markov switching meth MoreIn this paper, by using the nonlinear model of Hamilton Markov switching, the possible features of circular pattern are considered in Iran by a seasonally adjusted real GDP during 1988-2008. The results represent that business cycles extracted from Markov switching method are more appropriate than the linear model and the growth rate of GDP divided into three regimes by the average of negative, mildly positive and high positive growth as 3.92, 4.43 and 9.53 respectively. Iran economy experienced, during the above period, 7 seasons of recession, 10 seasons of mild growth and 58 seasons of high growth. Furthermore, the probability of stability in recession, moderate, and high growth are estimated 0.3, 0.92 and 0.5 percent respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - Determining the Optimal Interest Rate and Its Effects on Iran's Economy: An Application of Optimal Control Theories
yazdan Naghdi Farshid Efati BaranAbstract The aim of this study is to estimate and calculate the optimal interest rate during the period 1993-2016 in order to achieve an optimal interest rate and a describe economic growth using the optimal control theory. Taking into account Iran’s economic, s MoreAbstract The aim of this study is to estimate and calculate the optimal interest rate during the period 1993-2016 in order to achieve an optimal interest rate and a describe economic growth using the optimal control theory. Taking into account Iran’s economic, social and cultural planning, its economic growth rate is considered 6%, and the inflation targeting 10% in the present research. The results show that in order to achieve the describe economic growth rate of 6% in a year and the inflation targeting rate of 10%, the optimal interest rate needs to be 5.2%. By notice that the bank average interest rate for Iran has been 14.3% in the same period, it is suggested that bank interest rate decreases. This matter will increase investment and ultimately expand production and economic growth in the Iranian economy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - The Effective Factors on Survival Duration of Economic Expansion in Selected Countries of Islamic Cooperation Organization (Survival Analysis Approach)
Majid FeshariThe aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of inflation rate, investment, oil price and oil income and the ratio of devoted credits to private sector divided by survival duration of economic expansion in twenty five OIC countries during the period of 1994-2014. MoreThe aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of inflation rate, investment, oil price and oil income and the ratio of devoted credits to private sector divided by survival duration of economic expansion in twenty five OIC countries during the period of 1994-2014. For achieving this purpose, the research experiential model have been estimated by using cyclical models method by assuming Weibul distribution. The results from the estimated model indicate to positive affecting inflation, oil price, oil income, gross domestic fixed capital formation and the ratio of devoted credits to private sector divided by survival duration of economic expansion in the studding countries. So it can be suggested that the economic policy makers in the Islamic Cooperation Organization countries by increasing investment and by developing financial markets deal with increase of domestic production capacity and probability of more survival to economic expansion. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Dynamic Efficiency-Wage Model with Real Business Cycle
seyed fakhr aldin fakhrhoseiniThe purpose of this paper is to examine the cyclical consequences of Efficiency Wage theory when changing the workers efforts based on Dynamic Real Business Cycle model by using the data collected during 1966-2014. The equations are estimated through oleic approach (199 MoreThe purpose of this paper is to examine the cyclical consequences of Efficiency Wage theory when changing the workers efforts based on Dynamic Real Business Cycle model by using the data collected during 1966-2014. The equations are estimated through oleic approach (1999) as a space-state model in MATLAB context. The results represent that the increase of efforts variability to efficiency wage consideration causes the variables like production, consumption, labor and employment rate react less to technology shock. According to this model, higher level of workers efforts will lead to the increase of employment rate. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Real Business Cycles Model with Habits Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle
Seyed Fakhreddin FakhrhoseiniIn economic literature, habits formation has been succeed in reproducing some of the historical financial information and it can simplify the difficulties pertaining to simulating financial markets variables and business cycles. The aim in this paper is investigating pe MoreIn economic literature, habits formation has been succeed in reproducing some of the historical financial information and it can simplify the difficulties pertaining to simulating financial markets variables and business cycles. The aim in this paper is investigating performance of habits formation while inseparability between consumption and leisure. The data are related to the constant prices in 1383 and annually from 1966 to 2014. So, the variables were been detrended after taking logarithm of the variables by using Hodrick- Prescott filter. The final model equations have been specified around the linearized stabled situation through the Ohlig (1999) approach for linearized stochastic equations, in the form of a space-state model in Matlab programming. The results show that adding habits formation parameter can increase the Sharpe ratio or no risky asset fluctuations and inseparability between consumption and leisure can help explain the equity premium puzzle. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - بررسی ارتباط متقابل چرخههای مالی با کسبوکار در اقتصاد ایران
مصیب پهلوانی سید حسین میر جلیلی نفیسه کشتگر -
Open Access Article
13 - بررسی تأثیر نااطمینانی تورم بر ساختار سرمایه شرکتهای پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران
رضا تهرانی سارا نجف زاده خویی -
Open Access Article
14 - The Evaluating of the Effectiveness of Expansionary Fiscal Policies: Comparative Linear and Threshold VAR
الهام غلامی کامبیز هژبر کیانیAbstract This paper aims to answer the question of whether expansionary fiscal policy (increasing government spending and tax cuts) on economic growth in Iran is in linear or non-linear effects ? On this purpose, the performance of each of these programs using both lin MoreAbstract This paper aims to answer the question of whether expansionary fiscal policy (increasing government spending and tax cuts) on economic growth in Iran is in linear or non-linear effects ? On this purpose, the performance of each of these programs using both linear and threshold vector autoregressive model and the data years 1338 to 1391 is investigated. In this connection, when using the threshold model, the studied period observationsbased on positive or negative output gap was divided into two regimes. Impulse response functions results from the linear model indicate that reduced tax revenues and increased government spending as fiscal stimulus have led to increasing economic growth, but the impact of government spending is greater than tax revenues. Increasing government spending is most effective in threshold model, also. In addition, comparison of Impulse response functions from linear and threshold model show that response of GDP to tax revenues in linear model and positive output gap are almost identical. However, the effect of increasing government spending on GDP in linear model is very different from high regime. GDP response to tax revenues and government spending in lower regime is also different from the linear model. Accordingly, the expansionary fiscal policies multipliers are dependent on economic conditions in terms of the output gap. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - برآورد ضریب فزاینده مالی در ایران با تاکید بر نحوه خرج کرد درآمدهای نفتی
مریم مهدی زاده یگانه موسوی جهرمی الهام غلامی احمد سرلک -
Open Access Article
16 - The Evaluating of the Effectiveness of Expansionary Fiscal Policies: Comparative Linear and Threshold VAR
عبدالرسول قاسمی صبا نظریThis paper aims to answer the question of whether expansionary fiscal policy (increasing government spending and tax cuts) on economic growth in Iran is in linear or non-linear effects ? On this purpose, the performance of each of these programs using both linear and th MoreThis paper aims to answer the question of whether expansionary fiscal policy (increasing government spending and tax cuts) on economic growth in Iran is in linear or non-linear effects ? On this purpose, the performance of each of these programs using both linear and threshold vector autoregressive model and the data years 1338 to 1391 is investigated. In this connection, when using the threshold model, the studied period observationsbased on positive or negative output gap was divided into two regimes. Impulse response functions results from the linear model indicate that reduced tax revenues and increased government spending as fiscal stimulus have led to increasing economic growth, but the impact of government spending is greater than tax revenues. Increasing government spending is most effective in threshold model, also. In addition, comparison of Impulse response functions from linear and threshold model show that response of GDP to tax revenues in linear model and positive output gap are almost identical. However, the effect of increasing government spending on GDP in linear model is very different from high regime. GDP response to tax revenues and government spending in lower regime is also different from the linear model. Accordingly, the expansionary fiscal policies multipliers are dependent on economic conditions in terms of the output gap. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - The effect of manufacturing purchasing managers index on stock market index in Iran
Sakineh Sejoodi Parviz Jafarzadeh BarenjiAbstract Considering the increasing development of the stock exchange market and its potential for creating economic growth and development of the country, it is very important to study the factors affecting this market and this issue is very important for all users of MoreAbstract Considering the increasing development of the stock exchange market and its potential for creating economic growth and development of the country, it is very important to study the factors affecting this market and this issue is very important for all users of this market. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on the stock price index in Iran. Therefore, the present study has used the monthly data from 2018:10 to 2022:11 and using the Granger causality method and Johansen co-integration to investigate the relationship between Purchasing Managers Index and total stock price index and manufacturing stock price index. The results indicate that there is a one-way causality from the growth of the manufacturing purchasing managers index to the growth of the total stock price index and the growth of the manufacturing stock price index. Also, based on Johansen's cointegration test, there is a long-term positive relationship between the growth of manufacturing purchasing managers index and the growth of total stock price index, and also between the growth of manufacturing purchasing managers index and the growth of manufacturing stock price index. Given that the increase in PMI indicates economic prosperity in the manufacturing sector, this positive relationship shows that, as expected, stock price indices react positively to improvement signals in the manufacturing sector and negatively to negative signals. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - Pathology of Non-performing Loans with Emphasis on its Effective Factors
آزاده محرابیان رویا سیفی پورFrom an economic point increase in bad loans and non-performing loans could be the reason for the creation of a banking crisis. This study investigates the factors that affecting the formation of the current non-performing loans and requirements of its decline in the ec MoreFrom an economic point increase in bad loans and non-performing loans could be the reason for the creation of a banking crisis. This study investigates the factors that affecting the formation of the current non-performing loans and requirements of its decline in the economy of Iran. This paper is used the common theoretical, empirical studies, the experience of countries to reduce non-performing loans, specific conditions in Iran and appropriate econometric model. Model estimation for banks from year 1380 to 1393 indicates that the decline in economic growth, an increase in inflation rates and the exchange rate and also risky behavior of bank, credit growth and the size of banks are the important variables in the formation of non-performing loans Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - Government Spending and the Transmission Channels of Their Effects on Macroeconomic Variables: A DSGE Approach
انوشیروان تقی پور هما اصفهانیانAbstract In the literature, it is emphasized on the role of government spending in business cycle of economic activities, especially in the developing countries where public investment alongside with other government tools uses for economic growth stimulation. However, MoreAbstract In the literature, it is emphasized on the role of government spending in business cycle of economic activities, especially in the developing countries where public investment alongside with other government tools uses for economic growth stimulation. However, the effect of government spending depends on how the spending is financed. Oil in the Iranian economy plays a significant role, so that more than 45% of the budget is directly financed by oil revenue. Therefore, oil plays a major role in macroeconomic variables fluctuations. The aim of this paper is that while explaining the business cycle behavior of the oil income, its relation with some relevant macroeconomic variables including government expenditures, investment, growth, inflation and money is examined as well. To end this, we use a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to explain the transmission channels of oil revenues effect on macroeconomic variables through the government budget, public capital stock and monetary base channels. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - A survey of Financing Projects Mechanisms in Oil Industry of Iran
ابراهیم عباسی سید ایمان مصطفویAbstract Hyrocarbonic product including Oil & Gas export revenues play a central role in economy , social & political stability as well as the security of exporting countries . These nations are mainly categorized as developing countries and are heavily depende MoreAbstract Hyrocarbonic product including Oil & Gas export revenues play a central role in economy , social & political stability as well as the security of exporting countries . These nations are mainly categorized as developing countries and are heavily dependent on capital, management & the advance trchnology of Oil majors for exploitation of their underground reserves. On the other side the foreign Oil companies (FOCs) require security and a promising long term profit to secure any investment in host countries. These two groups mainly come together and enter in to agreement within what we refer to as Oil & Gas contracts in which the parties stipulate and agree on all the terms and conditions as well as their financial expectations thereof. Factors such as restrictions posed by legal systems, public’s historical background, economical and political status of the nation a long with several others may motivate or discourage a country as to adopt or avoid a certain type of contract. Adopting a certain type of contract may in long run affect the outcomes drastically either towards or against interests of host countries. This research, after analyzing , various finance project types conventional in Oil & Gas industry, comparing their merits and pitfalls and reviewing criticisms ; aims at proposing apprpaiate options for Iran. Using the Analytical Hierachy Process (AHP) , this research compares Buy-back , Concession and Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) together to find the optimum contractual method in finance and project implemention in oil upstream section for both independent and Iranian joint fields . the most important decision-making criteria for making contract in upstream section for oil and gas industry are classified to “Befor” and “After” contract approval. the criteria were selected by Delphi method. To do this research , two questioners were filled out by professionals in oil industry in two stages and the data was analyzed by EC software. The analysis of data indicates that the Buy-back are preferable than PSCs and Concession contracts in independent fields (63.4%) and the PSCs are preferable than Buy-back and Concession contracts in joint fields Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - بررسی اثر چرخه های اقتصادی بر عملکرد بانک ها در ایران مطالعه موردی بانک ملی ایران (1368-1393)
رافیک نظریان آزاده محرابیان برژانگ مرادی -
Open Access Article
22 - پیشبینی نقدینگی بر اساس برآورد نقطهای و بازهای روش آریما و مقایسه آن با روش هموارسازی نمایی دوگانه
جعفر احمدی شالی مهدی وصفی -
Open Access Article
23 - شناسایی مکانیزیم اثرگذاری مدیریت هموارسازی سود بر هزینه بدهی مالی در شرکتهای بورس اوراق بهادار تهران
ناصر سیف الهی -
Open Access Article
24 - Studying the cognitive bias in investors' behavior for stock price fluctuations
بهزاد سعادت زاده حصار رسول عبدی حیدر محمدزاده سالطه محمد نریمانیThis research aims at studying the cognitive bias in investors' behavior for stock price fluctuations in Tehran Stock Exchange. The methodology of this research was descriptive-correlational and path-analysis. The statistical population of this research was all the list MoreThis research aims at studying the cognitive bias in investors' behavior for stock price fluctuations in Tehran Stock Exchange. The methodology of this research was descriptive-correlational and path-analysis. The statistical population of this research was all the listed investors in Tehran Stock Exchange out of which, 384 people were selected by the convenient sampling method. Morgan table was used in this research to determine the sample volume. The measurement tools were the researcher-made questionnaires whose validity and reliability was confirmed after design and evaluation by professors and statistical methods. In addition, the beta coefficient was calculated to identify and compare the intensity and effect of cognitive bias components. The results of studying the mediating relationships of research variables showed the positive and significant relationship in 0.001 level between the cognitive bias and investors' behavior under low fluctuations with path coefficient (indirect) (0.35). In addition, there was a positive and significant relationship between the cognitive bias and investors' behavior under the high fluctuations with path coefficient (indirect) (-0.30) in 0.001 level. Therefore, it can be claimed that the cognitive bias reduced under the low fluctuations. As a result, the investors' behaviors were less influenced by the cognitive bias. On the other hand, the high fluctuations negatively influenced the investors' behavior and increased the errors. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - Investigating the Effect of Accounting Comparability on Financial Reporting Quality and Tax Avoidance
Alireza Rahimi Ali KianiAbstract This study investigated the effect of accounting comparability on financial reporting quality and tax avoidance. Accounting comparability improves information environment. Increased financial reporting transparency caused by increased accounting comparability MoreAbstract This study investigated the effect of accounting comparability on financial reporting quality and tax avoidance. Accounting comparability improves information environment. Increased financial reporting transparency caused by increased accounting comparability provides users a better understanding of the information content of financial reports, furthermore it reduces the opportunistic behaviour of managers. Meanwhile in reporting financial information for tax purposes transparent and comparable information plays an important role in in tax decisions.In this study by focusing on on an important aspect of financial reporting environment, that is accounting comparability, we are supposed to investigate the effects it could have on financial reporting quality and tax avoidance. To do so we have sampled out 110 companies listed with stock exchange. We have used multiple linear regression models to test the hypotheses. Our findings are indicative of positive relation between accounting comparability and financial reporting. the financial statement comparability as a governance mechanism prevents managers opportunistic behaviors including tax avoidance. quality as well as negative relation between accounting comparability and tax avoidance which are both in accordance with the hypotheses. based on the results of this study, when the quality of financial reporting, high and lower tax avoidance and tax avoidance, the capacity of accounting comparison improves the ability of users to identify similarities and differences between economic phenomena. As a result, consumers choose the best financial information that makes decisions more effective. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - Investigating the effect of economic sanctions on Iran's economy with an emphasis on human capital
Mohammad Rowshanroo Mehrzad Ebrahimi Hashem ZareThis research investigates the impact of economic sanctions on Iran's economy, particularly focusing on human capital, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and a new Keynesian approach, from March 2001 to September 2021. The findings indicate that sancti MoreThis research investigates the impact of economic sanctions on Iran's economy, particularly focusing on human capital, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and a new Keynesian approach, from March 2001 to September 2021. The findings indicate that sanctions led to a decline in oil revenues, subsequently reducing public spending on education and hindering human capital development. This decline in human capital has far-reaching consequences, including diminished productivity, reduced investment, and slower economic growth, alongside an inflationary uptick. As inflation erodes real wages, households respond by reducing labor supply, which, in turn, dampens consumption. Given the critical role of human capital in Iran's economic growth, policymakers must safeguard public education spending, particularly during periods of decreased oil revenues. By prioritizing investments in education, the government can mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions and foster long-term economic resilience. In conclusion, the study underscores the importance of maintaining educational investments amidst economic challenges, emphasizing the need for strategic fiscal management to sustain human capital development and drive economic progress. Manuscript profile
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