List of Articles Bayesian averaging

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  1 - Identify and examine the process of impact of the most important variables affecting the banking crisis over time
  ghodratolah talebnia siavash malekpour Hamidreza Vakilifard Mohammad Hossein Ranjbar
  AbstractThe study of banking crises in the world over time shows that some of them are destructive. Institutional problems, economic and financial sanctions and even the spread of the Corona virus have significantly increased the likelihood of crisis in the country's ba More

  AbstractThe study of banking crises in the world over time shows that some of them are destructive. Institutional problems, economic and financial sanctions and even the spread of the Corona virus have significantly increased the likelihood of crisis in the country's banking system. The share of more than 80% of banks in financing financing investment in the country has doubled the importance of identifying the factors affecting the banking crisis. Banks are used. The present research is applied in terms of research method. Estimation of Bayesian averaging model and TVP_FAVAR in MATLAB 2021 software in 11-year period (2008-2019); it is going to happen. The sample is 10 banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Initially, 49 variables affecting the banking crisis were entered into the model and 12 non-fragile variables affecting the financial crisis were identified using the Bayesian averaging model approach. The output of the results shows that the banking crisis index in the Iranian economy is multifaceted because the variables related to monetary and financial sector policy makers affect it; The results of the TVPFAVAR model also show that the effect of variables affecting the banking crisis is generally positive and strong, and this effect is generally stronger in the long run than in the short run; As a result, in order to reduce the banking crisis, medical and discretionary policies can not prevent the occurrence of the banking crisis, and institutional and fundamental policies and infrastructures are needed. Manuscript profile
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  2 - Factors affecting liquidity management in pharmaceutical companies: Bayesian averaging approach
  ghodratolah talebnia Ramin Pourabdolahian tehrani Hamidreza Vakilifard Jahanbakhsh asadnia
  AbstractOne of the powerful tools in examining the financial performance of companies is the liquidity of that company and is one of the decision-making indicators of investors. Examining the financial statements of companies is the most important step in investing and More

  AbstractOne of the powerful tools in examining the financial performance of companies is the liquidity of that company and is one of the decision-making indicators of investors. Examining the financial statements of companies is the most important step in investing and in this study, 50 effective variables of financial statements on liquidity management are included in the model. Using Bayesian averaging model approach, 12 non-fragile variables affecting the liquidity management of pharmaceutical companies, which include current liabilities, accumulated profit and loss, P / S, operating profit (loss), gross EPS, net cash inflow (outflow), Total Net Return on Investments, Total Net Flow of Investment Activities, Receiving Financial Facilities, Total Net Flow of Financing Activities, Cash Balance at the Beginning of the Year and Cash Balance at the End of the Year were identified. According to the results of liquidity management of pharmaceutical companies is a multidimensional process; Because the variables related to financial statements, balance sheet and profit and loss and cash flow affect this index. The multidimensionality of the factors influencing this process will require coordination among policy makers active in the industry so that the time inconsistencies created in the decision-making process do not make the situation of companies worse. Manuscript profile
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  3 - Modeling the Factors Affecting the Capital Structure in Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, the Approach of Bayesian Averaging Model
  Zahra Talebi Mohammad Sokhanvar Tahereh Akhoondzadeh
  10.30495/eco.2023.1980503.2731
  The capital structure, meaning the way the company is financed, affects the value of the company, the relationship between the components of the capital structure, which is a mixture of bonds and stocks for financing, has a significant effect on the performance results More

  The capital structure, meaning the way the company is financed, affects the value of the company, the relationship between the components of the capital structure, which is a mixture of bonds and stocks for financing, has a significant effect on the performance results of companies, the aim of the research is to model the factors affecting the capital structure in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (the approach of Bayesian averaging (BMA), This research is practical in terms of purpose and correlational in terms of nature. In order to achieve the goal of the research, 175 companies were selected from among the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1390 to 1400 by systematic elimination method and considered as the main sample.In order to identify the most important variables affecting the capital structure, the BMA model has been used. Based on this, 61 identified variables affecting the capital structure were included in the Bayesian averaging model. These variables were divided into two categories of internal and external factors. Based on previous probabilities, 17 variables were identified as important variables on capital structure. Among these variables, 10 intra-company variables (type of ownership; net operating profit; current ratio; total assets turnover ratio; interest rate coverage ratio; debt-to-equity ratio; beta per share; accrual profit management; financial distress and tax) and 7 external variables (inflation, exchange rate, budget deficit, business climate index, economic resilience index, sanctions index, capital market depth) were effective on the capital structure Manuscript profile