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Open Access Article
1 - An investigation of the smoothing of financial Ratios by management and the effect on decision users
R. Shabahang M. Hemmat farThe study investigates the smoothing of financial ratios by management and the effects offinancial in formation in accepted companies population in tehran securities exchange.In the study using deductive, inductive approach, firstly with expressing theoritical concepts MoreThe study investigates the smoothing of financial ratios by management and the effects offinancial in formation in accepted companies population in tehran securities exchange.In the study using deductive, inductive approach, firstly with expressing theoritical concepts andfirst model going toward details of study (Financial statement) ends to inductive result and statistictests.It is disscused two hypothesis in the study, according to theorical bases: which the first oneinvestigates existence financial ratio smoothing and the second one smoothing Analysis of variance(ANOVA) statistics method is used.For testing the first method panel data multiple regression is used For testing second hypothesies.Testing the first hypotesies indecated that financial ratios smoothing behavior in 5% significantlevel for some under the study years (76-81) observed for the most of the investigated.Financial ratios the second hypothesis indicated that the mentioned factors on smoothing index ofsome investigeted financial ratios were efficacious.Among these effective factors the most power Full Factors on financial ratios smoothing indexhas been Agency debt, and the most weak factor has been the size of company. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - An Impirical Investigation of the Effects of Financial Statement Analysis in Predicting Future Dividend of the Firm Member in Tehran Stick Exchange.
R. Shabahang F. HeydarpourPrediction of dividend is an important factor for decision making. Financial statement analysis can used for divided prediction . Decision makers usually co MorePrediction of dividend is an important factor for decision making. Financial statement analysis can used for divided prediction . Decision makers usually consider earnings as a signal for dividend figure . In this research two hypothesis are investigated : 1) There is a relation between financial variables / ratios ( other than earning figure alone ) and dividend and 2) financial variables / ratios are useful for prediction of dividend by using model . For that ,194 firms member in Tehran Stock Exchange were investigated .Methodology of research is correlation . Dependent variable is dividend and independent variables are 24 financial variables / rations . At first , the model was derived by using 1375-1380 data and the it’s fitness was evaluated . 8 variables was remained in model . For more confidence those process were done with 1375-1379 data and dividends of 1380 were predicted . It showed about 75 percent of real dividends in 1380 were between upper / lower limit at 95 percent level . Then the research hypothesis were confirmed . The non – earning / non-dividend variables are debit to total assets , equity . inventory to assets , debit and share price before stockholder’s meeting . Other variables are EPS , ROI , net sales to equity. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Bankruptcy Prediction Using Artifical Neural Networks with Camparsion to the Altman Model
M.R. Setayesh D. Ahadianpoor ParvinThis research has been done under title: Bankruptcy Prediction using Artificsl Neural Networks withcamparsion to the Altman Model.The goal of this study is to provide exact explanation and presentation of theoretical basis of research andmeasurement of usefulness bankru MoreThis research has been done under title: Bankruptcy Prediction using Artificsl Neural Networks withcamparsion to the Altman Model.The goal of this study is to provide exact explanation and presentation of theoretical basis of research andmeasurement of usefulness bankruptcy financial models. We presented the research hypotheses in order toprovide suitable scientific context for the study.Hypothese 1: Artificsl Neural Networks and Altman models are suitable instrumental for prediction ofbankruptcy.Hypothese 2: In prediction of bankruptcy one firm, have significant difference the resultsof this two models.The means of the research statements (Balance sheets, Income statement, cash flow statement) of thecompanies which were accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange. The library method was employed in datagathering. Statistical population of research includes active companies whose financial statements areaccessable in Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical sample of the research includes active companies inproductive industries, from 1379 to 1384.In order to analysis data, We used statistical metods of nonparametric binomial, and for cointegrationsignificant difference two models employed wilcoxon signed- rank test and sign test for hypothese 2. Afteranalyzing the data the results gained id confirmed and supported by above tests Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - The study of effective factors on probability of default banks' credit facilities (The case study of legal customer of Export Development Bank of Iran)
شمس اله شیرین بخش ندا یوسفی جهانگیر قربان زادThe aim of this research is to verify effective factors of legal counterparty creditrisk of Export Development Bank of Iran (EDBI), and design a probability of defaultmeasurement model using logit regression.330 probability samples were selected from companies that took MoreThe aim of this research is to verify effective factors of legal counterparty creditrisk of Export Development Bank of Iran (EDBI), and design a probability of defaultmeasurement model using logit regression.330 probability samples were selected from companies that took loans in year 1387(2008-2009) including 256 good pay bank customers and 65 bad pay bank customers.Seven variables have been recognized which have significant influence atcompanies' credit risk among 13 selected financial ratios as effective explanatoryvariables in default probability based on statistics indexes and economic and financialtheories. after significant examining total of the regression with LR statistic finalmodel in 5% level of significance created by them.The results expressed that cash flow on total debt ratio (CSDT), assets turnoverratio (SATA), current ratio (CACD) and liquidity ratio (LR) have a reverse effect oncredit risk. Free cash flow ratio (RETA), total debt ratio (TDTE) and current debts tonet worth ratio (CDTE) have a direct effect on credit risk. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Factors Affecting the Transparency of Financial Information in the Insurance Industry
Amirreza Nematolahi Roya Darabi Fatemeh Sarraf Yadollah Nouri fardThere are many factors in the transparency of financial information, the most important and most effective of which are financial components. In this research, we merely consider financial insurance agents in transparency of financial information because of, insurance a MoreThere are many factors in the transparency of financial information, the most important and most effective of which are financial components. In this research, we merely consider financial insurance agents in transparency of financial information because of, insurance accounting specific nature.The purpose of this study was to investigate the effective relationship between financial insurance factors and financial information transparency of the insurance industry.To determine the final financial components of insurance, experts of the insurance industry were consulted and a researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect data.The research sample consisted of 151 managers and experts in the insurance industry selected by random sampling method. The realm of this research is 2017 and city of Tehran. One-sample t-test was used to analyze the data in a small phase.The results indicate that financial insurance factors have a meaningful relationship with the transparency of financial information in the insurance industry, but violations were also found in the research components.The results of the ranking showed that the disclosure of leverage ratios and deferred loss accounts has the highest degree of significance. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - A Model to Predict Bankruptcy using the Mechanisms of Corporate Governance and financial ratios
ghazaleh Alibabaee Hamed KhanmohammadiImproving the economic and business environment is the most important factor in preventing bankruptcy, therefor, Artificial intelligence uses to predict the bankruptcy of companies in the future. In this study, companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange over a period of 10 MoreImproving the economic and business environment is the most important factor in preventing bankruptcy, therefor, Artificial intelligence uses to predict the bankruptcy of companies in the future. In this study, companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange over a period of 10 years in terms of bankruptcy localized model of Kurdistani-Tatli based on the Altman model were examined and companies were identified as bankrupt and healthy. Research data were collected, categorized and refined using secondary data extracted from financial statements and through the database of the Exchange Organization and the Central Bank.The models used to evaluate the data and predict the bankruptcy of companies are artificial intelligence models . Artificial neural network, combination of neural network and genetic algorithm and the K-nearest neighbor method has been used. They were also compared in terms of prediction accuracy. The output of the models indicates that the addition of corporate governance indicators to the financial ratios indicators has not improved the results. Therefore, financial ratios alone are sufficient for predicting and determining bankruptcy. The proposed model of this research based on accuracy is a combined model of neural network and genetic algorithm that has the highest accuracy. Genetic algorithm improves the optimal results of the neural network and provides a more optimal answer. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Modeling Customers Credit Rating Based on Life Cycle and Financial Ratios: Approach of Discriminant Analysis
abdolreza valiolahi vahidreza mirabi mohmmad hosein ranjbarThe aim of this study was to present a model of legal customers credit rating based on financial ratios and firm life cycle. The statistical population of research consist the all legal customers of bank of industry and mine in 2019 in a number of 132 firms. So, a numbe MoreThe aim of this study was to present a model of legal customers credit rating based on financial ratios and firm life cycle. The statistical population of research consist the all legal customers of bank of industry and mine in 2019 in a number of 132 firms. So, a number of 11 financial ratios beside of firms’ life cycle were studied through the analysis of variance test, independent test of chi-square and discriminant analysis and the results showed that firms’ financial ratios in different credit rates, are statistically different. Also the findings indicated that there is significant relationship between firms’ life cycle and credit rates and distinguished through discriminant analysis that using this method and estimating discriminant functions can determine the credit rate of firms with the accuracy of 97.7 percent. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - Credit rating of manufacturing corporations in Tehran stock exchange withmulti-criteriadecision-makingandartificial neural network models
Maghsoud Amiri Morteza Bakyhoskoie Mehdi Biglari KamiThis paper is investigated the credit rating of manufacturing firms in Tehran Stock Exchange. In this regard, have been extracted financial ratios of public stock companies during the three years from the financial statements. This financial ratios indicates MoreThis paper is investigated the credit rating of manufacturing firms in Tehran Stock Exchange. In this regard, have been extracted financial ratios of public stock companies during the three years from the financial statements. This financial ratios indicates the ability to pay principal and interest of loan. Initially, 50 companies were selected and ranked by the TOPSIS method. Financial ratios are as a criterion and weight of the each criterion are determined by using Shannon entropy method. Then the ranking, companies are classified into four categories. The artificial neural network is trained to classify and after training the neural network are tested. Statistical results show robust classification of neural network. Then all the companies included in this study are classified by neural network. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Analyzing and Prioritizing of Total Quality Management Factors Influencing Financial Performance by Group Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach (Case Study: Food Industry)
Arash Shahin Mohsen Arefnejad Fatemeh Faghani -
Open Access Article
10 - An Investigation on the Impact of the Financial Ratios and Growth Rates on Future Abnormal Stock Returns (Case Study: Companies Listed in the Cement Industry)
Delir Nasera-badai Bizhan Khazduzi Omid Mahmoudi KhoshrooThis survey has been done among companies listed in the cement industry in Tehran Stock Exchange during eight years from 1380 to1388. The paper studies the effect of the simultaneous use of financial ratios and growth rates on future stock returns which is proven unusua MoreThis survey has been done among companies listed in the cement industry in Tehran Stock Exchange during eight years from 1380 to1388. The paper studies the effect of the simultaneous use of financial ratios and growth rates on future stock returns which is proven unusual. The data has been collected by using the new software named: “Rahavard Novin”. The results are based on the after event method and using F and T-tests and linear regression statistical analysis. The results show that the hypothesis has not been confirmed yet. That is, the use of financial ratios and growth rates do not affect future abnormal stock returns simultaneously. Using stepwise regression test, the final model was driven. Thus, only the operational ratios do not have simultaneous effects on the use of financial ratios. Finally, the results obtained from the overall test of the research hypotheses do not confirm the simultaneous impact of the financial ratios on future abnormal stock returns. However, the items in the financial statements reflect the accrual impact of items of financial statements on the process of economic decision making, the influence of the information content of all items is not the same. In other words, liquidity ratios have the highest effect and other ratios like profitability, investment and operational ratios reportedly have high effects on the abnormal stock returns. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - ارزیابی عملکرد با استفاده از نسبت های مالی به شیوه الگوریتم درخت تصمیم گیری
زهرا امیرحسینی نسرین رضایی جمشید صالحی صدقیانی -
Open Access Article
12 - بررسی ارتباط رتبه بندی مالی واحدهای دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی با برخی از شاخص های منتخب مالی
طاهره رضازاده تکیه امیر محمودیان طالب پرگر -
Open Access Article
13 - Using integrated Fuzzy Multi-Criteria decision making model for evaluation and ranking the manufacturing firms in Tehran Stock Exchange
Ali Mohtashami Rahman Hasan Alipoor HerisThis paper aims to evaluate the financial performance of manufacturing industries member of the Tehran Stock Exchange.The MCDM method is applied to Evaluate five industry members of the Tehran Stock Exchange. Each industry includesseveral companies. Evaluation criteria MoreThis paper aims to evaluate the financial performance of manufacturing industries member of the Tehran Stock Exchange.The MCDM method is applied to Evaluate five industry members of the Tehran Stock Exchange. Each industry includesseveral companies. Evaluation criteria in this study were identified using literature research and data are needed for the years1386 to 1391, the Tehran Stock Exchange databases were collected. FAHP method is applied to determine the weight ofcriteria. After determining the weight of criteria, TOPSIS and VIKOR are applied as compromised methods to evaluate thecompanies. In the compromised method the distances of positive ideal solution and negative idea solution are consideredsimultaneously. On the other hand, the maximum distances of ideal solution are also considered. Finally, using the result ofTOPSIS and VIKOR and then taking advantage of the linear assignment method, and the results of calculations carried outpriorities final step after each stage is given. In the end, the conclusion is presented. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - The Value Relevance of Information in Annual and Interim Financial Statements in Tehran Stock Market
M. MoradzadehFard M. Alemi S. BehzadpoorThe main goal of investors is achieving wealth and it realizes through stock return. Therefore evaluating stock return is a main matter in stock market. So providing required information to interpret firm's condition and profitability is a primary purpose of financia MoreThe main goal of investors is achieving wealth and it realizes through stock return. Therefore evaluating stock return is a main matter in stock market. So providing required information to interpret firm's condition and profitability is a primary purpose of financial reporting. Accordingly financial statements and supply notes are important information resource for investors. The objective of this study is examining the value relevance of information in annual and interim financial statements to explain stock return .This research investigates the relationship between financial reports information and abnormal return by using financial ratios, firm's size and cash flow from operation. So the existence of relationship between them could be criteria for investors to anticipate interim and annual abnormal return and facilitate investing decisions. Overall, the findings show that for explaining stock return interim financial statements are more informative than annual financial statements. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - بررسی رابطه کیفیت سود و ساختار سرمایه (مطالعه موردی: شرکتهای غیرمالی پذیرش شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران)
سید سجاد علم الهدی عبداله دریابر سمانه طریقی -
Open Access Article
16 - Designing Credit Risk Early-warning System for Individual and Corporate Customers of the Banks using Neural Network Models, Survival Probability Function and Support Vector Machine
Roya Derakhshani Mirfeiz Fallah hosein jahangirnia Reza Gholami jamkarani Hamidreza kordlouieCredit risk is the probability of default of the borrower or the counterparty of the bank in fulfilling its obligations, according to the agreed terms. In other words, uncertainty about receiving future investment income is called risk, which is of great importance in b MoreCredit risk is the probability of default of the borrower or the counterparty of the bank in fulfilling its obligations, according to the agreed terms. In other words, uncertainty about receiving future investment income is called risk, which is of great importance in banks. The purpose of this article is to estimate the credit risk of individual and corporate customers. In this study, the statistical information of 400 individual customers and7500 corporate customers was used. In this regard, the results of neural network model and support vector machine model have been compared. The obtained results have shown that the components considered in this study based on their personal, financial and economic characteristics had significant effects on the probability of customer default and credit risk calculation. Also, the results of this study showed that the application of control policies at the beginning of the repayment period suggests facilities that have the highest probability of default with long life and high repayment. The comparison of the results of the prediction accuracy shows the higher explanatory power of the support vector machine model and the use of the survival probability function than the simple neural network model for both groups of customers. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - نسبتهای مالی و نرخ بازده سهام در صنعت بانکداری
مهرزاد مینویی میر فیض فلاح شمس مرضیه صالحی حجت الله کاویانی -
Open Access Article
18 - بررسی کارایی الگوی لوجیت و تحلیل تمایزی چند متغیره در پیش بینی وضعیت مالی شرکت های بورس اوراق بهادار تهران
زهرا پورزمانی افسانه توانگر حمزه کلایی آوا کیارسی -
Open Access Article
19 - Presenting a Model Based on Evaluation of Performance Banks Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange Using Data Mining Approach
elham adakh arefeh fadaviasghari Mohammad Ebrahim Mohamad PourzarandiWith the growth of private banks , financial and credit institutions, competition for better services has increased. Given the importance of the issue, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive model for evaluating banks. Every organization needs to evaluate its perfor MoreWith the growth of private banks , financial and credit institutions, competition for better services has increased. Given the importance of the issue, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive model for evaluating banks. Every organization needs to evaluate its performance to understand its strengths and weaknesses, especially in dynamic environments. The issue of performance appraisal is so widespread that even management experts say: "What cannot be evaluated cannot be managed".Banks, like other organizations in Iran, need performance evaluation to provide more diverse and faster services as well as their development. [6]This study aimed to present a model to evaluate the performance of banks listed in Tehran Stock Exchange using data mining approach. In this research, four data mining models of decision tree C5.0, decision tree C4.5, Naive Bayes classifier, and random forest were implemented and compared to evaluat the performance of banks. To this end, 28 financial ratios (e.g., profitability ratios, liquidity, quality management, asset quality, and capital adequacy) in 18 banks of Tehran Stock Exchange during 2014-2017 were selected as independent variables. In addition, the performance of banks in three categories of acceptable, unacceptable, and moderate was selected as the dependent variable of the study. According to the results, the decision tree C5.0 with the accuracy of 94.4% was the most efficient model proposed in this research. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - Solving Imbalanced Data Distribution Problem in Bankruptcy Prediction by Cost-Sensitive Learning Method
seyed behrooz razavi ebrahim abbasiThis study aimed to add cost-sensitive learning technique to imbalanced data-based bankruptcy prediction models in order to reduce type I error and increase the geometric mean criterion of overall accuracy to reduce the misclassification costs of bankrupt companies for MoreThis study aimed to add cost-sensitive learning technique to imbalanced data-based bankruptcy prediction models in order to reduce type I error and increase the geometric mean criterion of overall accuracy to reduce the misclassification costs of bankrupt companies for stakeholders. For this purpose, type I error, type II error, and the geometric mean of overall accuracy of bankruptcy models based on cost-sensitive learning were compared with bankruptcy prediction models with highly imbalanced datasets. The statistical sample included 1200 year-companies since 2001- 2020, consisting of 90% healthy companies and 10% bankrupt companies. Hypotheses test results showed that adding a cost-sensitive learning technique to the bankruptcy prediction models led to a significant decrease in the type I error, a significant increase in the type II error, and a significant increase in geometric mean of accuracy of imbalanced data-based models at 95% confidence level. Also, with the increase in the misclassification cost of bankrupt companies, type I error had a downward trend and the II type error had an upward trend, and the geometric mean of accuracy had an upward trend. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - بررسی مقایسه ای رتبه بندی شرکت های برتر بر اساس نسبت های مالی با رویکرد ترکیبی AHP–TOPSIS و شاخص های بورس اوراق بهادار تهران
سیدحسن حسینی محمداسماعیل اعزازی محمد دنیائی رضا تهرانی -
Open Access Article
22 - روش چند معیاره (MCDM) برای انتخاب سهام در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران با استفاده از متغیرهای مالی
محمدعلی سوخکیان هاشم ولی پور لیـدا فیـاضـی -
Open Access Article
23 - طراحی مدل پیش بینی ورشکستگی شرکت ها به وسیله شبکه های عصبی فازی (مطالعه موردی:شرکت های بورس اوراق بهادار تهران)
مریم ظهری محمدعلی افشارکاظمی -
Open Access Article
24 - The Bankruptcy prediction of Tehran Stock Exchange Using Firefly Algorithm (FA)
ali bayat Seyyed Ali Reza Ahmadi majid mohamadiInvestor, stockholders, managers, beneficiaries, with broke of company, would lost their assets. Thus, existence of mechanism which could be evaluating and expecting of financial crisis of companies, is essential. A lot of research, implemented about expecting of bankru MoreInvestor, stockholders, managers, beneficiaries, with broke of company, would lost their assets. Thus, existence of mechanism which could be evaluating and expecting of financial crisis of companies, is essential. A lot of research, implemented about expecting of bankrupt, which using of smart intelligence algorithms and ultra-discovery, were of the models of recent decay. In this study, with using of information of stock exchange center of TEHRAN (1390-1395), 45 successful firms and 25 bankrupt firms, have been researched. Financial ratios were of the variables of this study, which these variables with using of ultra-discovery algorithm of glowworm, identified as one of the models of smart intelligence and effective ratios in bankrupting. It includes of 9 financial ratios and in long with this process, valid and broke firms have been ranked. Two hypothesis have been codified for this study, which the result of them, in order to justified of these hypothesis, indicating of 95/12 correct expecting of first year, 5/36 for second year, and 80/48 for third year. Manuscript profile
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