List of Articles سناریونگاری

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  1 - Futuristic Scenarios Of The Mental Image Of Large Shopping Centers In Tehran (Old Context)
  Negar Salehi ZOHREH DAVOUDPOUR مریم خستو
  Nowadays, Large Shopping Centers As One Of Emerging And Popular Public Urban Spaces Have Found Their Place As One Of The Three Priorities Of Citizens In Metropolises. Meanwhile, These Large Shopping Centers Can Influence The Mental Image Of People And The Perceived Mean More

  Nowadays, Large Shopping Centers As One Of Emerging And Popular Public Urban Spaces Have Found Their Place As One Of The Three Priorities Of Citizens In Metropolises. Meanwhile, These Large Shopping Centers Can Influence The Mental Image Of People And The Perceived Meaning Of The Place, The Identity Of The Place, And Social Sustainability, Which Reveals The Necessity Of Futuristic Research About Them. The Purpose Of This Research Is To "Identify The Important Variables Affecting The Mental Image Of A Large Shopping Center Located In Old Context Of Tehran" And "Explain The Compatible Futures, In Front Of The Mental_Image Of A Large Shopping Center Located In Old Context Of Tehran" And Present Appropriate Strategies, Policies And Action Plans In To Control The Negative Effects Or Prevent Them From Happening In Future With These Strategies. The Main Question Of This Research Is, Which Futures, Ahead Of Mental_Image Of A Large Shopping Center In Old Context Of Tehran City Are Believable And Compatible, And What Strategies,Policies And Action Plans Can Control Their Negative Effects?In Order To Answer The Research Problem,The Futuristic Research Approach With Quantitative Method Is Used. Effective Variables Are Identified With Documentary Studies In Background Of The Research,Then With A Survey Method Using A Questionnaire From 15 Experts, With The Delphi Technique, The Main Non-Deterministic Variables Are Identified, And The Results In The Scenario Wizard Software Lead To The Explanation Of Compatible And Believable Scenarios.Then, With DPSIR-Framework-Technique, Strategies Are Extracted And Policies And Action Plans Are Formulated. The Findings Of Research Indicates That The Poor Quality And Unfavorable Perception Caused By The Large Saray_E_Delgosha Shopping Center Located In Old Context Of Tehran Will Bring Many Social And Economic Consequences In Future, Which According To The Strategies, Policies Proposed Appropriate Action Plans Can Control The Meaning And Mental_Image Perceived In Future. Manuscript profile
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  2 - Scenario planning and explanation of urban management development with an emphasis on earthquake vulnerability management with a future research approach using GIS, a case study of Mantasa Municipality 6, Tehran
  poya amiri mohammad ebrahim afifi Marziyeh Mogholi
  The research is applied in terms of purpose, explanatory in nature and combined method (qualitative-quantitative). The data collection method is library-documentary. The statistical population was formed by 124 experts and experts from the government agencies of the cit More

  The research is applied in terms of purpose, explanatory in nature and combined method (qualitative-quantitative). The data collection method is library-documentary. The statistical population was formed by 124 experts and experts from the government agencies of the city of Tehran. Probability and stratified sampling method. The tool for collecting information is the questionnaire of the type of closed questions. For the future research of Tehran city management and to investigate the desired drivers, the criteria influencing the development management of Tehran city have been ranked using the TOPSIS model based on the experts' score. By examining these criteria, possible, probable and desirable scenarios have been developed. The aim of the current research is scenario planning and explanation of the development of urban management with an emphasis on earthquake vulnerability management with a future research approach using GIS. The indicators used for medical centers and hospitals were population density, open spaces, distance from the fault, road network. In the fuzzy inference zoning maps of AND operator, 1453.13, 499.17, 154.9, 35.11 hectares are located in very low, low, medium, high and very high risk areas, respectively. In the OR zoning model, 7.02 hectares are in the very low risk category, 35.11 hectares are in the low risk category, 358.19 hectares are in the medium risk zone, 1755.85 hectares are in the high risk zone, and 2156.18 are in the very high risk zone. The results of the research show that Among the evaluated criteria, the emphasis on the decentralized and integrated management structure with a score of (0.967) has taken the first place. Based on the future research method in Tehran city development management, three scenarios were formulated. The first scenario: change in the structural criteria of Tehran city management (integrated approach in urban planning and management). The second scenario: change in the functional criteria of Tehran city management. The third scenario: Governance is digital democracy. In this zoning, the most vulnerable areas are located in the northern part of the city.Therefore, in the zoning map resulting from the AND operator, more relief and relief centers will be needed in times of earthquakes. In the OR zoning model, 7.02 hectares are in the very low risk category, 35.11 hectares in the low risk category, 358.19 hectares in the medium risk zone, 1755.85 hectares in the high risk zone, and 2156.18 hectares in the very high risk zone. Therefore, the largest area in this zoning model is in the very low class, and this logic considers many areas without risk due to the convergence between criteria, and only a very small part of the center of the study area has been identified as having a high risk. And finally, the zoning model of the GAMA operator, respectively, 185.23, 557.92, 595.88, 643.62, 158.76 hectares were in the very low, low, medium, high, very high risk classes, and the medium risk class covered most of the study area. In this zoning, the most vulnerable areas are located in the northern part of the city. Manuscript profile
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  3 - The international future order scenario in the years leading to 2030
  ali asghar naeimi amirhoshang mirkooshesh ali mohammadzadeh
  From the past, predicting the future and that the global system will be in accordance with its various variables, both the side and the other, and the political actors and the governing authorities in order to supply national interests and safeguard and protect their in More

  From the past, predicting the future and that the global system will be in accordance with its various variables, both the side and the other, and the political actors and the governing authorities in order to supply national interests and safeguard and protect their independence and territorial integrity, as well as a concern and issue. Therefore, actors of the international arena, which are the same political countries, compete with other actors in order to redress their citizens ' rights, and pursue unwritten conflicts. Therefore, due to the efforts of some effective activists, including China, Russia and the European Union to form the governing order of the international arena, or to change and transform it, have a writer with a multi-scenario design, the future of international order in the years leading to 2030 using scenario-oriented approach in the theoretical framework of the idea of the cause of mining. Therefore, it can be predicted that, in addition to the growing economic, military, political and diplomatic growth of China, alongside the Russian offensive approach and the increasing nationalism of the European Union, at the end of the Third Decade of the twenty-one ad we will not only see the stresses and changes in international order, but also the ruling system of its current form and the Monopolator towards a single - Multipolar system with us and a few Influential focus including China, Russia and the European Union will redirect. Manuscript profile
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  4 - Application of Future Research Approach in the Feasibility of Objectives of Urban Development Plans (Case Study: Noorabad Mamasani Master Plan
  ahmad rezaee Marzieh Mogholi mohammadebrahim afifi
  Comprehensive urban plans, as pivital management tool on a city-wide scale, have faced problems in the previous decades, which have made it difficult to achieve their goals. One critical method in recognizing the success rate of urban development projects is to evaluate More

  Comprehensive urban plans, as pivital management tool on a city-wide scale, have faced problems in the previous decades, which have made it difficult to achieve their goals. One critical method in recognizing the success rate of urban development projects is to evaluate them in line with the principles of sustainable development. Addressing this issue is considered as an tool in measuring the success and feasibility of the proposals of the comprehensive plan and helps the planners to better understand the problems when preparing and compiling comprehensive plans. We aim to evaluate the feasibility of the main and effective proposals in the comprehensive plan of Noorabad Mamasani city using the application of futurology approach. The study is practical and has been conducted in terms of exploratory method at the exploratory level and based on the future research approach. Driving forces have been prioritized according to the experts' opinion, using future research software (Micmac) based on the degree of importance and uncertainty. Wizard scenario software was used to write possible scenarios. Ten factors were identified in the column of direct influence, which played the greatest role in the realization of the master plan of Noorabad city. In the case of the obtained scenarios, the unfavorable situation prevails over the favorable role. Out of 100%, about 20% of the cases were optimistic, 22% static and 58% pessimistic. The best scenario is scenario no.1 Manuscript profile
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  5 - Identifying and Explaining the Cultural Tourism Scenarios in the Post-Corona Era (A Case Study of Geographical Area in Ardabil Province)
  Javad Madani
  Cultural tourism is one of the types of tourism that is affected by the serious damage of the Corona epidemic. Most countries in the post-Corona era are trying to promote cultural tourism, which has required them to adopt new approaches and methods. The main purpose of More

  Cultural tourism is one of the types of tourism that is affected by the serious damage of the Corona epidemic. Most countries in the post-Corona era are trying to promote cultural tourism, which has required them to adopt new approaches and methods. The main purpose of this study is to identify and explain the scenarios of cultural tourism in the post-Corona era, which is focused on Ardabil province. The research method is a mix of two methods, ‘focus group’ and ‘scenario planning’, using a sequential exploratory approach. The main tool used in the qualitative phase is a semi-structured interview in the form of an online focus group and the quantitative phase is a questionnaire. The participants of the present study were 8 experts and academic and executive experts of the country in the field of cultural tourism who participated in the focus group. According to the research findings, in the qualitative phase, 13 main codes were extracted in the form of three basic concepts, which were categorized using the three-pronged model. According to the discussion and the results, 4 scenarios were created, each of which can help to create the necessary flexibility in the field of cultural tourism and make this type of tourism with synergy and innovation in Ardabil province. Manuscript profile