الگوی تصحیح خطا

Open Access Article

1 - The impact of financial development on human capital in Iran
Bahram Sahabi Mohammad Hasani Amir Mirzaei

This paper investigates the impact of financial development and economic growth on humancapital in Iran for the period of 1357-1387. This paper uses the vector error correction modeland Johansen cointegration test for explaining the relationship between these variables. More

This paper investigates the impact of financial development and economic growth on humancapital in Iran for the period of 1357-1387. This paper uses the vector error correction modeland Johansen cointegration test for explaining the relationship between these variables. We alsouse three measures for financial development such as: the liquid liabilities as percentage ofGDP, the domestic credit to private sector as percentage of GDP, and the amount of capital asshare of GDP proxied by stock market development.The results suggest evidence of positive relationship between economic growth and humancapital. In financial development indices, we found that the liquid liabilities index and StockMarket Development index have a positive relationship with human capital. But we found noevidence between the domestic credit to private sector and human capital Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

2 - Investigation of relation between the currency rates of volatility on open position of Tejarat bank
H. Ebrahimi

This research, Investigate the relation between the currency rates ofvolatility on open position Tejarat bank and its effects of the impulsesfrom the exchange rate volatility and other variables on open position. Inorder to do this , we have utilized open position items More

This research, Investigate the relation between the currency rates ofvolatility on open position Tejarat bank and its effects of the impulsesfrom the exchange rate volatility and other variables on open position. Inorder to do this , we have utilized open position items, reference rates ofCentral bank , Stock price index , Money supply and Balance ofcountry’s monthly payments over a six-year period from 1381 to1386.Foreign exchange position as it’s name signifies , shows the state ofbeing long or short in position. In other words, the differential of theassets and the liabilities of the bank in one foreign exchange is calledforeign exchange position.For this purpose, the new econometric procedures have been used.Vector Auto Regressive model has been used for variables which are inthe augmented level (Japan’s Yen and Swiss Frank) and Vector ErrorCorrection Model has been used for variables which became augmentedby a differential.(based on Dollar , Euro , Pound , and sum of foreigncurrencies).In the meantime , as per the standard pattern of SchwarzBayesian ,Akaike , and Hannan Quinn , Quantity 2 has been selected asthe optimum degree for VAR.Surveys in this research show that the reaction of open position offoreign currency against the impulse from the currency rate varianceinfluence the value of the foreign currency assets and the liabilities of thebank , and make the bank confront with the considerable risk in the valueof the foreign currency assets and liabilities. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

3 - The effect of underlying asset shocks on the Gold exchange traded funds’ pricing deviation
mahdi shaerattar Akbar Mirzapour babajan

10.30495/jfksa.2021.19254

Gold exchange traded fund is one of the new financial instrumentss that underlying asset is gold and traded in the capital markets. This article examines the pricing deviation of the four gold funds on the Iran Mercantile Exchange from their underlying asset index. The More

Gold exchange traded fund is one of the new financial instrumentss that underlying asset is gold and traded in the capital markets. This article examines the pricing deviation of the four gold funds on the Iran Mercantile Exchange from their underlying asset index. The main purpose of this study is investigate the effect of underlying asset shocks on the Gold exchange traded funds’ pricing deviation. In order to achieve this purpose, employed daily data of Emami Coin, Gold ETFs in Iran (Tala, Ayar, Zar, Gohar), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Results: The results shown that pricing deviation is stationarity and predictable. Therefore can be considered an implicit transaction cost an Gold ETF. The reason for the predictability of the pricing deviation stems from its stationarity and the specific price discovery processes for this asset class. Utilization of Impulse Response Function shown that the shock effect of the underlying asset was the same and do not persist for more than six trading days, Which indicates the relative pricing efficiency of these funds Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

4 - بررسی رابطه علیت بین رشد اقتصادی، تورم و توسعه ‏بازار سهام در ایران
راضیه گردشی الهام غلامی

Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

5 - The Effect of Exchange Rate on the Iran’s Pharmaceutical Industry Balance: Vector error Correction Approach
sara Masoomzadeh mehdi Shirafkan

Introduction: The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the balance of payments is very important in economic literature. Pharmaceutical is one of the sub-sections of the balance of payments. Methods: By using vector error correction model, this paper seeks to identif More

Introduction: The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the balance of payments is very important in economic literature. Pharmaceutical is one of the sub-sections of the balance of payments. Methods: By using vector error correction model, this paper seeks to identify the effect of exchange rate changes on the balance of payments by evaluation the existence of J-Curve in Pharmaceutical industry over the period of 1991 to 2012. Results:The results show the existence of J curve in Iran'sPharmaceutical industrybalance of payments. It means that exchange rate appreciation has reduced Pharmaceutical industrybalance of payments in the first period but after a period it has increased Pharmaceutical industry revenues and improved its balance of payments. According to the analysis of variances of export and import functions the pharmaceuticalindustryhas highly been affected bychanges in exchange rate. 0.19 And 0.016 Changes in these functions have been caused by exchange rate changesand the balance of payments is more sensitive to changes inforeign income.The rate of effectiveness of the income variation is 0.25. Conclusion:The increase in the exchange rate has improved the pharmaceutical industry trade balance of the country in the last periods of shocks. Also, changes in gross domestic product have had the greatest impact on the fluctuation of Iran's pharmaceutical trade balance. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

6 - The Effect of Information and Communication Technology and Foreign Direct Investment on Green Productivity in Iran
Behnaz Mashayekhi Kambiz Hojhabr kiani Farzaneh Khalili Farid Asgari

10.30495/jest.2019.36983.4354

Background and Purpose: Effective protection of the environment and optimal use of natural resources is one of the most important pillars of sustainable development. Green productivity is a strategy to increase environmental productivity and performance in order to soci More

Background and Purpose: Effective protection of the environment and optimal use of natural resources is one of the most important pillars of sustainable development. Green productivity is a strategy to increase environmental productivity and performance in order to social and economic development. The Information and Communication Technology (ICT) revolution has severely affected all countries in terms of economic, social, political, cultural aspects as well as security, employment, health, the environment, and many other macro variables; so that, the technology has become the main driving force of the world's economy and sustainable development in today's world. According to the importance and the impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Information and Communication Technology on green productivity, this paper uses the Johansen-Joselius coherent test of the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Information and Communication Technology and the Green Productivity Index in Iran. Materials and Methods: The effect of Information and Communication Technology and Foreign Direct Investment on green productivity has been investigated in Iran using the Johansen-Joselius coherent test during the period of 1980-2013. Findings: According to the research findings, the Information and Communication Technology and Foreign Direct Investment have a positive and significant and a negative and significant effect of on the Green Productivity Index in Iran, respectively. Also, the vector error correction model shows that the adjustment process is slowing towards the equilibrium. Discussion and Conclusion: According to the obtained results, and considering the negative and significant effect of Foreign Direct Investment on green productivity, which could be as a result of increased pollution, it is suggested that is possible to provide a ground to improve green productivity by adopting policies to reduce the destructive effects of Foreign Direct Investment, including the replacement of green energy. It is also recommended that environmental regulations and standards be imposed upon the entry of Foreign Direct Investment which could be done with less environmental pollution. The effect of Information and Communication Technology index on Green Productivity Index is positive and significant in Iran. Therefore, it can be surely said that the use of Information and Communication Technology, as a solution for green productivity institutionalization is essential for implementing the continuous and effective process of green productivity improvement. It is also suggested to determine criteria, for the development and implementation of the green productivity concept, that fully cover the qualitative patterns of economic growth and development. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

7 - Investing in the oil and gas industry using estimates of crude oil and natural gas consumption in Iran by VECM model
vahid rajabian reza taleblo hamidreza arbab

AbstractThe main objective of this research is to estimate the demand model for crude oil and natural gas in the country during the period from 1988 to 2015 and also to predict crude oil and natural gas demand functions in Iran during the sixth development plan with the More

AbstractThe main objective of this research is to estimate the demand model for crude oil and natural gas in the country during the period from 1988 to 2015 and also to predict crude oil and natural gas demand functions in Iran during the sixth development plan with the aim of studying the effect of important variables affecting their consumption in the country. VAR - VECM model is used to investigate the relationship and the effects of variables and the short-run and long-run relationship between variables, and finally, extracted model has been used to predict crude oil and natural gas demand in the country at 1400 horizon. The results indicate that: (1) income elasticity is low and the sensitivity of oil consumption to changes in income (here, per capita income) is small. (2) There are no long-term causal relationship between intrinsic independent variables and exogenous independent variables, such as oil price and natural gas prices, towards natural gas consumption and per capita income. (3) In the short term, there is no causal relationship from natural gas consumption, natural gas prices, oil prices, and per capita income towards crude oil consumption. (4) Variance decomposition for oil consumption variable indicates that in the long run, natural gas consumption has a significant contribution to explaining changes in crude oil consumption. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

8 - تأثیر سیاست های پولی و مالی بر قیمت دارایی های مالی در ایران
اکبر کمیجانی اسداله فرزینوش احمد نقیلو

Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

9 - Relationship between Public and Private Investment in Iran (Analyzing the Crowding-Out or Crowding-In Effects)
Esmaeel Safarzadeh

10.30495/eco.2021.1934015.2541

The main objective of this paper is to analyze empirically the effects of public investment on private investment, evaluating the existence of crowding-out/-in effects, in Iran for the 1970-2019 periods. I evaluate the macroeconomic effects of public and private investm More

The main objective of this paper is to analyze empirically the effects of public investment on private investment, evaluating the existence of crowding-out/-in effects, in Iran for the 1970-2019 periods. I evaluate the macroeconomic effects of public and private investment through VECM analysis. From impulse response functions, we are able to assess the extent of crowding-in or crowding-out of both components of investment. I also compute the associated macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment for Iran Economy. The results point to the existence of positive effects of public and private investment on output. On the other hand, results show the crowding-in effects of public investment on private investment. Based on these results, it is suggested that the government provide the conditions for private investment by creating infrastructure, helping to finance investment projects and creating a secure economic environment. I also compute the associated macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment for Iran Economy. The results point to the existence of positive effects of public and private investment on output. On the other hand, results show the crowding-in effects of public investment on private investment. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

10 - Identification of Stagflation Causes in Iran: A Threshold Error Correction Method
nooshin khani gharieh gapi bahram sahabi firoozeh azizi majid sabagh kermani

Stagflation is an economic situation in which both inflation and business activities stagnant will happen at the same time with the increase of unemployment rate in the country. In this study, the causes of stagflation will be identified in the country by Error Correcti More

Stagflation is an economic situation in which both inflation and business activities stagnant will happen at the same time with the increase of unemployment rate in the country. In this study, the causes of stagflation will be identified in the country by Error Correction Method (ECM) and the data of the years 1973-2011. Then, by using Threshold Autoregressive Error Correction Method (TAR-ECM), the researchers try to clear that if the growth of the elements identified will equally affect the stagflation or after a threshold level, the effect can be different. According to the results of linear relationship, indices of payment balances, budget deficit, oil revenues and liquidity are statistically significant and considered as the cause of stagflation in Iran. Also, the results of all nonlinear models estimated in this paper represent when the growth of stagflation causes passed the threshold point, their effect on stagflation will be different. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

11 - انتقال قیمت، رفتار آستانه‌ای و تعدیل نامتقارن در بازار مرغ ایران
م. کاوسی کلاشمی پ. خلیق خیاوی خلیق خیاوی

بخش مرغ ایران تغییرات ساختاری معنی دار بسیاری را طی سالهای اخیر شاهد بوده است. چنین تغییراتی ممکن است پویاییهای قیمت و انتقال شوکها در کانالهای بازاریابی را به خصوص در بازارهای خرده فروشی تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. این پژوهش انتقال قیمت، رفتار آست More

بخش مرغ ایران تغییرات ساختاری معنی دار بسیاری را طی سالهای اخیر شاهد بوده است. چنین تغییراتی ممکن است پویاییهای قیمت و انتقال شوکها در کانالهای بازاریابی را به خصوص در بازارهای خرده فروشی تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. این پژوهش انتقال قیمت، رفتار آستانهای و تعدیل نامتقارن قیمت در بخش مرغ استانهای اردبیل (AR)، آذربایجان شرقی (EA) و آذربایجان غربی (WA) با استفاده از دادههای هفتگی قیمت طی سالهای 1998 تا 2012 مورد بررسی قرار داده است. تحلیل ما از یک الگوی همگرایی آستانهای بهره برده که امکان تعدیل نامتقارن نسبت به شوکهای مثبت و منفی قیمت را فراهم میآورد. نرمافزار R به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل دادهها مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. یافتههای اصلی بیانگر وجود عدم تقارن در انتقال قیمت برای تمام بازارها است. براساس کمینهسازی شاخص مجموع مربعات خطا (SSR) آستانه‌های برآوردی برای بازارهای EA-AR، WA-AR و EA-WA به ترتیب برابر با (217/1، 38/0)، (211/0، 61/1)، (95/1، 38/0) میباشد. در تلاشی دیگر آستانهها با استفاده از روششناسی TVECM برآورد شد و نتایج مشابهای حاصل شد. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

12 - عوامل مؤثر بر بی‌ثباتی درآمدهای صادراتی پسته و تأثیر آن بر صادرات کشاورزی
محمدرضا زارع مهرجردی آسیه عزیزی زهرا کرونی

صادرات بخش کشاورزی سهم قابل توجهی از صادرات غیرنفتی را به خود اختصاص داده و از جایگاه ارزآوری مهمی برخوردار است. در بین محصولات کشاورزی، پسته از محصولات عمده‌ی صادراتی می‌باشد که سهم چشم‌گیری از تولید، سطح زیرکشت، مقدار و ارزش صادرات را به خود اختصاص داده است. در این مط More

صادرات بخش کشاورزی سهم قابل توجهی از صادرات غیرنفتی را به خود اختصاص داده و از جایگاه ارزآوری مهمی برخوردار است. در بین محصولات کشاورزی، پسته از محصولات عمده‌ی صادراتی می‌باشد که سهم چشم‌گیری از تولید، سطح زیرکشت، مقدار و ارزش صادرات را به خود اختصاص داده است. در این مطالعه ابتدا، با استفاده از شاخص "میانگین قدرمطلق تفاوت بین درآمدهای صادراتی از روند آن" بی‌ثباتی درآمدهای صادراتی در کل دوره زمانی 1389- 1352 محاسبه شد. از این جهت، شاخص بی‌ثباتی درآمدهای صادراتی پسته طی چهار دوره‌ی تقسیم شده، نشان می‌دهد که دوره جنگ، از بی‌ثباتی بیشتری برخوردار بوده ولی در کل دوره مطالعاتی، بیثباتی اندک بوده است. در گام دوم، به بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر بی‌ثباتی درآمدهای صادراتی پسته و تأثیر آن بر صادرات کشاورزی، طی دوره‌ی زمانی مورد مطالعه پرداخته شده است. بدین منظور، از شاخص بی‌ثباتی لاو (1985) و الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری (VECM) استفاده گردیده است. نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل بی‌ثباتی درآمدهای صادراتی پسته نشان می‌دهد که شاخص تمرکز رابطه عکس و شاخص بی‌ثباتی تولید و شکاف نرخ ارز رابطه مستقیم با بی‌ثباتی درآمدهای صادراتی پسته دارد. همچنین نتایج حاصل از برآورد تابع صادرات کشاورزی حاکی از آن است که بی‌ثباتی درآمد صادراتی پسته تأثیر منفی و معنی‌دار بر صادرات بخش کشاورزی داشته است. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

13 - Agriculture productivity effects on the Iran economic Growth
F. DABIRI S. KHoshnevis Yazdi F. Zandi

Today,the most important goal of economic countries is achieving to economic Growth through productivity improving productivity improving can be achieved by optimum utilization of the production factors and it plays an important role in continuous economic growth and su More

Today,the most important goal of economic countries is achieving to economic Growth through productivity improving productivity improving can be achieved by optimum utilization of the production factors and it plays an important role in continuous economic growth and sustainable development.  Productivity of factors of production in agriculture sector is very important.Because in Iran,agriculture is the largest production sector after oil and services that has allocated around 20 present of Gross national product and main share of non oil export to it.Moreover,relation between agriculture former and hinder with other sectors will help output growth and employment,by increasing population and limiting resources,require optimum utilization of resources and increasing production factors productivity.In this study,data have been used as annually time series of data for the period of persian data 1350 till persian data1387.And variable of agriculture productivity is computed by using Kendrick index and then influence of agriculture productivity to economic Growth is estimated by model of ARDL and ECM that the test results indicate the signs of estimated coefficients for all variables match with visionary asters and the variable of capital,agriculture productivity,labor have positive and meaningful influence in economic Growth.And Granger causality test showed that there is a overhand relationship from agriculture productivity to economic growth. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

14 - Evaluating the effects of fiscal policy (changes in the Tax Income) on the employment in Iran
Mahdieh Rezagholizadeh

Due to the impact of Government’s fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables, awareness of short-run and long-run impacts of these policies need to be applied in order to anticipate their consequences and appropriate policies. We will investigate the effects of fisc More

Due to the impact of Government’s fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables, awareness of short-run and long-run impacts of these policies need to be applied in order to anticipate their consequences and appropriate policies. We will investigate the effects of fiscal policy (changes in the Tax Income) on the employment in Iran by using Vector Auto Regressive, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition and also the short-run and long-run relationships between variables will be evaluated. For this purpose, the time series data for the years 1350 to 1391 were used to estimate the model. According to the long- run equations and coefficients that are significant, we can say that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between increasing in taxes and employment and during the period of study, rising taxes had a negative impact on employment. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

15 - بررسی آثار اندازه دولت بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران
اکبر کمیجانی هادی حق شناس

Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

16 - فرار مالیاتی در پایه مالیات بر درآمد اشخاص حقوقی در ایران ) برآوردهای سالانه 1392-1352(
رضا امیدی پور جمشید پژویان

Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

17 - An Investigation of the effects of transportation infrastructure on foreign direct investment in Iran (5874-2117)
Armin Rajabzadeh Mina Mahjoub laleh Mohammad Reza Abbasi Astamal

Strong infrastructure cause reduction in transportation costs that this reduction is a motivation for entering regional and multinational firms and attraction of foreign investment. The aim of this research is to study the effect of transportation infrastructure on fore More

Strong infrastructure cause reduction in transportation costs that this reduction is a motivation for entering regional and multinational firms and attraction of foreign investment. The aim of this research is to study the effect of transportation infrastructure on foreign direct investment in Iran during 5874-2117. By using time series econometric measuring; Johansen Co integration method the long-run relationship has been investigated and according to Error Correction method the short-run relations have been studied. The results show that transportation infrastructure has significantly and positive effect on foreign direct investment by coefficient of 2ه22. But in short-run there is no causative relationship between capital stock of transportation on foreign direct investment Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

18 - An Investigation of Monetary PoliciesEffects on Properties Pricing In Iran
مجید احمد لو

Abstract This paper investigates monetary policies effects on property pricing for the case of Iran over the period 1369-1392.  For this objective, we apply Co-integration technique and vector error correction model (VECM). We obtain Data set from Iran’s cen More

Abstract This paper investigates monetary policies effects on property pricing for the case of Iran over the period 1369-1392.  For this objective, we apply Co-integration technique and vector error correction model (VECM). We obtain Data set from Iran’s central bank time series database. The results of this study showed that there is a short-run and long run relationship from bank credit and a long-run relationship from liquidity and inflation to physical property prices. In addition, there is a short-run and long run relationship from inflation and a long-run relationship from liquidity and banks short-run profit rate to financial property prices. These results suggest that monetary effects on especially financial property prices appear with time lag.   Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

19 - The Effect of Goods market Efficiency on Economic Growth in Selected Asian Countries
Naghmeh honarvar homayoun ranjbar sara ghobadi

Improving efficiency and productivity has an impact on the main economic, social and political phenomena of societies, such as reducing the level of inflation, increasing the level of public welfare, increasing the level of employment and increasing competitiveness. Eff More

Improving efficiency and productivity has an impact on the main economic, social and political phenomena of societies, such as reducing the level of inflation, increasing the level of public welfare, increasing the level of employment and increasing competitiveness. Efficiency explains the degree of success of an economic unit or a country in the optimal use of inputs to produce output in comparison with other economic units and other countries, therefore, examining the effects of efficiency on macroeconomic variables is very important. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyze the effects of the goods market efficiency pillar in the global competitiveness index on economic growth with an emphasis on the factors affecting this efficiency (technology, trade and investment) in Asian countries with a moderately high competitiveness index during the period of 2008-2018. For this purpose, the effects of goods market efficiency on the economic growth of these countries were investigated using the panel vector error correction model (PVECM). In general, the results indicate that the positive shock of this type of efficiency (improving the efficiency of the goods market) in the medium and long run leads to an increase in the economic growth rate and a decrease in the unemployment rate. Also, the results showed that the most effective variable on the efficiency of the goods market is investment, which has the greatest impact on the efficiency of the goods market in the long run. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

20 - Effects of Monetary Policy on Gross Development Product and Inflation through House Price Index in Iran
H. Sharifi-Renani S. Ghobadi F. Amrollahi N. Honarvar

The purpose of this research was to analyze the effect of monetary policy on gross domestic product and inflation via house price index as a proxy for other assets in Iran in 1989-2008. For the analysis time series data and vector error correlation method were used. The More

The purpose of this research was to analyze the effect of monetary policy on gross domestic product and inflation via house price index as a proxy for other assets in Iran in 1989-2008. For the analysis time series data and vector error correlation method were used. The results showed that in the pattern 1 the positive monetary shocks in the short run increased the product and decreased the prices but, in the long run it decreased the product and increased the prices. The debt shocks of the banks to the central bank in the short run had little effect on the product and the prices. In the intermediate run these shocks had decreased the product and increased the prices. And in the long run it increased the product and decreased the prices. In pattern 2 positive shock of the legal deposits ratio leads to decrease in the production and increase in the inflation in the short, intermediate and the long run, through the banking lending. Results shoed also that money policy instruments (banks loan to the central bank and the rate of legal deposits) had a little effect on the granted facilities of the banks. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

21 - The study of the long run effects of international trade on economic success variables in Iran
fateme sabet naghmeh honarvar ali rezaei

Economic growth and inflation control are among the goals pursued by any economy. In today's world, decision-making power and role-playing in global trading are countries that have a lot to say in the economy. If the policymakers' goal is to develop and encourage trade, More

Economic growth and inflation control are among the goals pursued by any economy. In today's world, decision-making power and role-playing in global trading are countries that have a lot to say in the economy. If the policymakers' goal is to develop and encourage trade, in order to achieve this goal, it must control the growth of the international presence and the inflation by strengthening the foundations of the country's production. This study examines the long run effects of international trade on Iran's economic success variables during the period 1350-1395 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of Johansson's co-integration test showed that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between variables.. The results of the IRF indicated that the positive shock of exports in the short, medium and long run had a significant positive effect on economic growth and inflation. The positive shock of imports in the short run has a significant positive effect, and in the medium and long run, there is a significant negative effect on economic growth, and this shock has a significant negative effect on inflation in the short, medium and long run. Manuscript profile

List of Articles الگوی تصحیح خطا

Sanad

Links

Related Centers

Technical Support

Official pages