• Home
  • Investigating Factors Affecting Urban Growth of Large Cities in Iran

Share To

Article Url


Manuscript ID : SOIJ-1809-1183 (R2) Visit : 167 Page: 63 - 76

20.1001.1.23456450.2019.8.2.5.2

Article Type: Original Research

Investigating Factors Affecting Urban Growth of Large Cities in Iran

Subject Areas : Space Ontology International Journal

Bahareh Kermani 1 ( Department of Architecture,Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Alborz, Iran )
Hamid Majedi 2 ( Department of Art and Architecture, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. )
Esfandiar Zebardast 3 ( Department of Urban planning, College of Fine Arts, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. )

Received: 2018-09-05 Accepted : 2019-07-11 Published : 2019-06-01

Keywords: Iran, Logistic regression, Urban growth, Factors of urban growth, Large cities,

Abstract :

The present paper focuses on determining the most important factors affecting urban growth in large cities of Iran through modeling and comparing the common and diverse points of urban growth obtained from other studies. For this purpose, by reviewing the theoretical concepts associated with urban growth, quantities and measurable variables are developed as proper frameworks to study the influencing factors on the urban growth. This paper describes the urban growth model through “logistic regression ” by using both physical and socio-economic driving forces analysis and urban spatial pattern evaluation. Three large cities in Iran were selected as the cases to fulfill the tasks and two series of influencing factors for large cities of Iran's urban growth were introduced: 1) Factors with favorable effects including: bare lands, crop/ grass lands and less populated areas. 2) Factors with unfavorable effects including: lands covered with trees (forests) and distances from roads and industrial centers.

References:


  1. Allen J and  Lu k (2003) Modeling and prediction of future urban growth in the Charleston region of South Carolina: a GIS-based integrated approach. Conservation Ecology 8(2).
    2.
  2. Al-sharif1 A A and Pradhan Biswajeet (2015) Spatio-temporal Prediction of Urban Expansion Using Bivariate Statistical Models: Assessment of the Efficacy of Evidential Belief Functions and Frequency Ratio Models. Appl. Spatial Analysis.
    3.
  3. Akin A, Sunar F and Berberoğlu S (2015) Urban change analysis and future growth of Istanbul. Environ Monit Assess 187: 506.
    4.
  4. Batisani N and Yarnal B (2009) Urban expansion in Centre County, Pennsylvania: Spatial dynamics and landscape transformations. Applied geography 29:235-249.
    5.
  5. Batty M and Longley P (1994) Fractal Cities: a Geometry of Form and Function. San Diego: Academic Press.
    6.
  6. Braimoh A K and Onishi T (2006) Spatial determinants of urban land use change in Lagos, Nigeria. AMS online journals. 8(21).
    7.
  7. Cetin M and Demirel H (2010) Modelling and Simulation of Urban Dynamics. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin. 9(10A).
    8.
  8. Cheng J (2003) Modelling Spatial & Temporal Urban Growth. PhD thesis. University of Utrecht, Netherlands.
    9.
  9. Chang, H. J., Ryan, H., Yi-xiang, L., & Dennis, J. O. (2006). Reconstruction after the tsunami: ecological and cultural considerations from case studies. Landscape and Ecological Engineering, 2: 41-51.
    10.
  10. Cheng J and Masser I (2003) Urban growth pattern modeling: a case study of Wuhan city, PR China. Landscape and Urban Planning 62:199-217.
    11.
  11. Clarke K C and Gaydos L J (1998) Loose-coupling a CA model and GIS: long-term urban growth prediction for San Franciso and Washington/Baltimore. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 12(7): 699-714.
    12.
  12. Clarke K C, Hoppen S and Gaydos L (1997) A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area.  Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 24(2): 247 – 261.
    13.
  13. Doos B R (2002) Population growth and loss of arable land. Global Environmental Change. 12. 303–311.
    14.
  14. Dubovyk O (2010) Spatio-temporal analysis of ISs development. A case study of Istanbul, Turkey. MSc thesis, University of Twente, Netherlands.
    15.
  15. Ewing R (2008) Characteristics, Causes, and Effects of Sprawl: A Literature Review? Urban Ecology. 519-535.
    16.
  16. Fang et al (2005) The impact of interactions in spatial simulation of the dynamics of urban sprawl. Landscape and urban planning 73: 294-306.
    17.
  17. Forman R T T (1995) Land mosaics: The ecology of landscapes and regions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    18.
  18. Hagoort M J Geertman S C M and Ottens H F L (2008) Spatial externalities, neighborhood rules and CA land-use modelling. The annuals of regional science 42: 39–56.
    19.
  19. Harvey R O and Clark WAV (1965) The nature of economics and urban sprawl. Land Economics. XLI (1): 1 – 9.
    20.
  20. Hasyim, A. W., Hariyanto, T., Taufik, M., & Sulistyarso, H. (2011). Urban land use change analysis using temporal multispectral. International Journal of Academic research.: 3 (246-251)
    21.
  21. Hill R D (1986) Land use change on the urban fringe. Nature and Resources 12(1-2): 24–33.
    22.
  22. Hu Z and Lo C P (2007) Modeling urban growth in Atlanta using logistic regression. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 31(6): 6. 
    23.
  23. Huang B Zhang L and Wu B (2009) Spatiotemporal analysis of rural-urban land conversion. International journal of Geographic Information Science 23(3): 379-398.
    24.
  24. Huang, Q.-hao, & Cai, Y.-long (2006). Simulation of land use change using GIS-based stochastic model: the case study of shiqian county, southwestern china. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2007(21): 419-426.
    25.
  25. Hui-Hui, F., Hui-Ping, L and Ying, L. (2012). Scenario prediction and analysis of urban growth using SLEUTH model. Pedosphere 22(2): 206e216.
    26.
  26. Iran Amayesh consulting engineer (1990). Master plan and detailed design of Rasht. Department of housing & urban development Guilan province. Ministry of housing & urban developement.
    27.
  27. Inouye C E N et al (2015) Modelling the spatial dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in the north coast of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Ocean & Coastal Management 108: 147-157.
    28.
  28. Kutner M Nachtscheim C and Neter j (2004) Applied linear regression models. New York:McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
    29.
  29. Landis J D and Zhang M (2000) Using GIS to improve urban activity and forecasting models. In: Fotheringham S and Wegener M (eds) Three examples in Spatial Models and GIS: New Potential and New Models.  London: Taylor & Francis, PP. 63-82.
    30.
  30. Levia D F (1998) Farmland conversion and residential development in North Central Massachusetts. Land Degradation and Development 9: 123–130.
    31.
  31. Liao, F. H. F., & Wei, Y. H. D. (2012). Modelling determinants of urban growth in dongguan, china: a spatial logistic approach. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment.
    32.
  32. Luo J and Wei Y H D (2009) Modeling spatial variations of urban growth patterns in Chinese cities: The case of Nanjing. Landscape and Urban Planning 91(2): 51-64.
    33.
  33. Mubareka et al. (2011) Development of a composite index of urban compactness for land use modelling Applications. Landscape and Urban Planning 103: 303– 317.
    34.
  34. Mustafa, A. M., Cools, M., Saadi, I., & Teller, J. (2015). Urban development as a continuum: A multinomial logistic regression approach. (2015) Computational Science and Its Applications: (729-744). Springer International Publishing.
    35.
  35. Nelson A (1992) Preserving prime farmland in the face of urbanization: lessons from Oregon. Journal of the American Planning Association 8:467–488.
    36.
  36. Omsongwang, S & Saravisutra, A. (2011). Optimum predictive model for urban growth prediction. Suranaree Journal.of Science.and Technology, 18(2): 141-152.
    37.
  37. Platt R H (1985) The farmland conversion debate: NALS and beyond. Professional Geographer 34: 433–442.
    38.
  38. Poelmans L and VanRompaey A (2009) Complexity and performance of urban expansion models. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 34 (1):17-27.
    39.
  39. Rudel T K (2005) Tropical forests: Regional paths of destruction and regeneration in the late twentieth century. New York: Columbia University Press.
    40.
  40. Schwarz N (2010) Urban form revisited – Selecting indicators for characterising European cities. Landscape and Urban Planning 96(1): 29-47.
    41.
  41. Shamsuddin S and Yaakup A (2007) Predicting and simulating Future Land Use Pattern: A Case Study of Seremban District. Jurnal Alam Bina 9(1).
    42.
  42. Shen et al (2008) Study on Spatio-Temporal System Dynamic Models of Urban Growth.System Engineering Theories and Practices 27(1): 10-17.
    43.
  43. Shafizadeh-Moghadam H and Helbicha M (2015) Spatiotemporal variability of urban growth factors: A globaland local perspective on the megacity of Mumbai. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geo information. 35: 187–198. 
    44.
  44. Tayyebi A and Pijanowskib B.C (2014) Modeling multiple land use changes using ANN, CART and MARS: Comparing tradeoffs in goodness of fit and explanatory power of data mining tools. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. 28 :102–116.
    45.
  45. Tarh & Amayesh consulting engineer (2002). Revised Master plan of Kermanshah.
    46.
  46. Tarh & Amayesh consulting engineers (2010). Revised Master plan of Urmia. The West Azarbaijan organization of housing & urban developement.
    47.
  47. Tarh & Kavosh consulting engineers (2005). Master plan of Rasht. Ministry of housing & urban developement, Tehran.
    48.
  48. United nations (2011). World urbanization prospects:The 2011 revision.
    49.
  49. Verburg et al (2004) A method to analyze neighborhood characteristics of land use patterns. Computer, Environment and Urban system 28: 667-690.
    50.
  50. Verburg P H, Veldkamp A and Bouma J (1999) Land use change under conditions of high population pressure: the case of Java. Global Environmental Change 9: 303–312.
    51.
  51. White R and Engelen G (2000) High-resolution integrated modeling of the spatial dynamics of urban and regional systems. Computers, Environment and urban systems 24(5): 383-400.
    52.
  52. Wilson et al (2003) Development of a geospatial model to quantify, describe and map urban growth. Remote Sensing of Environment 86: 275–285.
    53.
  53. Wood C H and Porro R (2002) Deforestation and land use in the Amazon. Gainesville, FL: University Press of Florida.
    54.
  54. Wu F (2000) A parameterized urban cellular model combining spontaneous and self- organizing growth in GIS and Geo-computation (Innovations in GIS 7). In: Atkinson P and Martin D(eds). New York :Taylor & Francis, pp.73-86.
    55.
  55. Wu F and Yeh A G (1997) Changing spatial distribution and determinants of land development in Chinese cities in the transition from a centrally planned economy to a Socialist Market Economy: A Case Study of Guangzhou. Urban studies 34(11): 1851-1879.
    56.
  56. Xie et al (2009) Spatial logistic Regression and GIS to Model Rural-Urban Land Conversion. International journal of Geographic Information Science 23(3).
    57.
  57. Yue, Z. (2008). Steering towards growth: symbolic urban preservation in Beijing, 1990-2005. Town Planning Review, 79: 2-3.
    58.
  58.  
    59.
  59. Yin et al (2005) Changes in urban built-up surface and population distribution patterns during 1986–1999: a case study of Cairo, Egypt. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 29 (5): 595–616.
    60.
  60. Yu, N., & Qingyun, D. (2011). Urban growth pattern modelling using logistic regression. Geo-spatial Information Science 14(1): 62-67
    61.
  61. Zhang, Z., Su, S., Xiao, R., Jiang, D., &Wu, J. (2013). Identifying determinants of urban        growth from a multi-scale perspective: a case study of the urban agglomeration around hangzhou bay, China. Applied Geography 45: 193-202.
    62.
  62. Zebardast E (2004). City size.Tehran: Center of Architectural & Urban studies and research. Ministry of housing and urbanization.
    63.

Related articles

The rights to this website are owned by the Raimag Press Management System.
Copyright © 2021-2024

Home| Login| About Us| Contact Us|
[فارسی] [العربية] [fa] [ar]