استفاده از روشهایDelphi ، AHP و TOPSIS جهت ارزیابی و رتبه بندی پروژه های سرمایه گذاری در پورتفولیوی چندگانه
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت صنعتی
Vahid Baradaran
1
,
Ahmad Borjy
2
,
Peyman Zandi
3
,
Alamdar Davoodabadi
4
1 - Assistant Professor, Industrial Engineering, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Industrial Engineering department, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Industrial Management department, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran
4 - Industrial Engineering department, Shomal University, Mazandaran, Iran
تاریخ دریافت : 1394/09/07
تاریخ پذیرش : 1395/04/28
تاریخ انتشار : 1395/06/04
کلید واژه:
TOPSIS,
AHP,
Delphi,
رتبه بندی پروژه های سرمایه گذاری,
پورتفولیوی پروژه ها,
ranking of investment projects,
project portfolio,
چکیده مقاله :
به دلیل اهمیت و پیچیدگی بحث مدیریت پورتفولیو، تاکنون بیش از 100 تکنیک مختلف در این زمینه ارائه شده است. در کل نتیجه نهایی این ابزارها، ایجاد لیست اولویت بندی شده ای از پروژهاست که بایستی برای تخصیص منابع، انتخاب شوند. یک ارزیابی از عمومیت تکنیک‌ها نشان می دهد که استفاده از رویکردهای مالی منجر به ایجاد پوتفولیو بهینه نمی شوند مخصوصا در پروژه هایی که در آنها عدم قطعیت اطلاعات بیشتر است ممکن است استفاده از رویکردهای مالی گمراه کننده باشد. در این گونه موارد نیاز است تا این روش ها را با سایر روش های دیگر مانند رویکردهای استراتژیک ترکیب نمود تا بتوان یک پورتفولیو بالانس و همرستا با استراتژی های سازمان را فراهم و سودآوری و تطابق استراتژیک پروژه ها را تضمین نمود. از طرفی سرمایه گذاری های مختلف، به طرق مختلف ارزیابی و انتخاب می شوند. بنابراین تقسیم بندی پروژه ها به سبدهای مختلف به سازمان ها این اجازه را می دهد که پروژه های موجود در یک زیر مجموعه را به وسیله مجموعه ای از معیارها و تکنیک های مشابه و همسان، ارزیابی، اولویت بندی و انتخاب کنند. در این مقاله با انتخاب بخش کشاورزی به عنوان مورد مطالعه سعی شده است نحوه ارزیابی، رتبه بندی و راهبری پروژه ها با رویکرد دسته بندی پروژههای سرمایه گذاری و با استفاده از روش های دلفی، مقایسه زوجی و تاپسیس مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. نتایج نشان می دهد که در موارد مشابه با تعیین نوع کسب و کار و سرمایه گذاری و به تبع بومی سازی شاخص‌ها می توان مدل ارائه شده را به کار گرفت.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Because of importance and complexity of portfolio management issue, there have been many articles and books on the subject of project evaluation and selection, discussing over one hundred different techniques and tools. This tools and techniques specify a prioritized projects list that should be selected for final allocation. Usually, using financial approaches can’t create an optimal portfolio especially in projects that have more uncertainty, this approaches can make wrong results. In these cases, these financial approaches should be combined with other approaches (such as strategic approaches) in order to make a balanced portfolio that is aligned with organization’s strategies and increase profitability and strategic adaption of projects. Besides, various investments are evaluated and selected differently and classification of projects in different portfolio allows organizations to evaluate, prioritize and select similar projects in the same portfolio by using similar tools and techniques. In this paper, we selected agriculture field as the case study and the manner of evaluating, ranking and conducting of projects by using investment projects categorizations and Delphi, AHP, and TOPSIS method has been discussed. By determining the type of business and investment and local criteria for each categorization, the results of this paper can be used in similar cases.
منابع و مأخذ:
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Meade, L.M., Presley, A. (2002). R&D project selection using the analytic network process. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag. 49, 59–66.
Meredith, J.R., Mantel Jr., S.J., 2008. Project Management: A Managerial Approach, 7th edition. John Wiley& Sons, Inc., EUA.
Kerzner, H. (2006). Gestao de projetos: as melhores praticas, 2a Ediçao. Bookman, Porto Alegre.
Kester, L., Griffin, A., Hultink, E.J., Lauche, K. (2011). Exploring portfolio decision-making processes. Journal of Product Innovation Management 28 (5), 641–661.
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28 Rajegopal, S. McGuin, P. and Waller J. (2007). Project Portfolio Management Leading the corporate vision " , First published by Palgrave Macmillan
Saaty, Thomas L., Rogers, Paul C., & Pell, Ricardo. (1980). Portfolio selection through hierarchies, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 6(3), 16-21.
Skaf M.A. (1999). Portfolio Management in an Upstream Oil and Gas Organization, Interfaces, 29/6, pp. 84-104.
Summer, R. j. (1999). Portfolio Management for Projects: A New Paradigm. In Dye, L.d.
Verbano, C., Nosella, A., 2010. Addressing R&D investment decisions: a cross analysis of R&D project selection methods. Eur. J. Innov. Manag. 13 (3), 355–380.
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Azar, A., Rajabzadeh, A. (2012). Applied decision making, MADM approach. Negahe Danesh. Press, 230P.
Archer, N.P., Ghasemzadeh, F. (2007). Project portfolio selection and management In The Wiley Guide to Managing Projects. Edited by Peter W. G. Morris and Jeffrey K. Pinto.
Baker, N. R., & Freeland, J. (1975). Recent advances in R&D benefit measurement and project selection methods. Management Science, 21, 1164-1 175.
Cooper, Robert G. (1993). Winning At New Products (Second Ed.), Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Cooper, R.G., Edgett, S.J. and Kleinschmidt, E.J. (1997). R&D Portfolio Management Best Practices Study, Industrial Research Institute (IRI), Washington, DC.,
Cooper, R.G., Edgett, S.J. & Kleinschmidt, E. (1998). J. Portfolio Management for New Products. Reading, Mass: Perseus Publishing,.
Cooper, R.G., Edgett, S.J., Kleinschmidt, E.J. (1999). New product portfolio management: practices and performance. J. Prod. Innov. Manag. 16 (4), 333–351.
Cooper, R.G., Edgett, S.J., Kleinschmidt, E.J. (2000). New problems, new solutions: making portfolio management more effective. Res. Technol. Manag. 43 (2), 18–33.
Cooper, R.G., Edgett, S.J., Kleinschmidt, E.J. (2001). Portfolio management for new product development: results of an industry practices study. R&D Manag. 31 (4), 361–380.
Cooper ,R.G., Edgett S.J., Kleinschmidt E.J. (2002). Optimizing the stage-Gate process, What best practice companies are doing, Research Technology Management, Volume 45, Number 5.
Cooper , R. G. 2006 . Managing technology development projects: Different than traditional development projects. Research Technology Management 49 (6):23 – 3.
Dutra, C.C., Ribeiro,J.L.D., de Carvalho, M.M., 2014. An economic–probabilistic model for project selection and prioritization, Int. J. Proj. Manag. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.12.004.
Ghasemzadeh, F., Archer, N. (2000). Project portfolio selection through decision support. Decis. Support. Syst. 29, 73–88.
Henriksen, A., Traynor, A. (1999). J.A practical R&D project-selection scoring tool. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag. 46, 158–170.
Hwang, C.L., & Yoon, K. (1981). Multiple attribute decision making methods and applications. New York:Springer-Verilog.
Levine, H. A. (2005). Project Portfolio Management: A Practical Guide to Selecting Projects, Managing Portfolio and Maximizing Benefit. USA: Pfeiffer Wiley.
Martikainen, J., Portfolio Management of Strategic Investments in Metal Products Industry, Helsinki University of Technology, 17th of January, 2002.
Martino, Joseph P. (1995). R&D Project Selection, New York, NY: Wiley.
Mehregan, M.R. (2013). Advanced operation research. Ketabe daneshgahi. Press, 280P.
Meade, L.M., Presley, A. (2002). R&D project selection using the analytic network process. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag. 49, 59–66.
Meredith, J.R., Mantel Jr., S.J., 2008. Project Management: A Managerial Approach, 7th edition. John Wiley& Sons, Inc., EUA.
Kerzner, H. (2006). Gestao de projetos: as melhores praticas, 2a Ediçao. Bookman, Porto Alegre.
Kester, L., Griffin, A., Hultink, E.J., Lauche, K. (2011). Exploring portfolio decision-making processes. Journal of Product Innovation Management 28 (5), 641–661.
Lawson, C.P., Longhurst, P.J., Ivey, P.C. (2006). The application of a new research and development project selection model in SMEs. Technovation, 26 (2), 242–250.
Liesio, J., Mild, P., Salo, A., (2007). Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 181, 1488–1505.
Padovani, M., Carvalho, M.M., Muscat, A.R.N. (2010). Seleçao e alocaçao de recursos em portfolio de projetos: estudo de caso no setor quimico. Gest. Prod. 17, 157–180.
Poh, K., Ang, B., Bai, F., (2001). A comparative analysis of R&D project evaluation methods. R&D Manag. 31 (1), 63–75.
28 Rajegopal, S. McGuin, P. and Waller J. (2007). Project Portfolio Management Leading the corporate vision " , First published by Palgrave Macmillan
Saaty, Thomas L., Rogers, Paul C., & Pell, Ricardo. (1980). Portfolio selection through hierarchies, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 6(3), 16-21.
Skaf M.A. (1999). Portfolio Management in an Upstream Oil and Gas Organization, Interfaces, 29/6, pp. 84-104.
Summer, R. j. (1999). Portfolio Management for Projects: A New Paradigm. In Dye, L.d.
Verbano, C., Nosella, A., 2010. Addressing R&D investment decisions: a cross analysis of R&D project selection methods. Eur. J. Innov. Manag. 13 (3), 355–380.
