تفکیک اثرات مقیاس و تکنیکی توسعه مالی و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر: شواهدی از کشورهای خاورمیانه

محورهای موضوعی : توسعه اقتصادی، نوآوری، نغییرات تکنولوژیکی و رشد اقتصادی

حسین الرکابی ¹ , سید کمال صادقی ^{2 *} , پرویز محمدزاده ³

1 - دانشجوی دکترای علوم اقتصادی گرایش توسعه اقتصادی دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، [e-mail]
2 - استاد اقتصاد، دانشگاه تبریز، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، [e-mail]
3 - استاد اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، [e-mail]

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/11/01 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/12/15 تاریخ انتشار : 1404/02/27

کلید واژه: انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر, توسعه مالی, FDI, کیفیت نهادی, مدل CS-ARDL.,

چکیده مقاله :

انرژی یکی از ارکان اصلی تولید و رشد اقتصادی است، اما وابستگی شدید به سوخت‌های فسیلی در کشورهای خاورمیانه، علی‌رغم پتانسیل بالای انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر، چالش‌های زیست‌محیطی و سلامت انسانی را تشدید کرده است. توسعه مالی و FDI  می‌توانند از طریق اثر مقیاس و اثر تکنیکی بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر تأثیرگذار باشند. اثر مقیاس با افزایش تولید و تقاضای انرژی، اغلب موجب افزایش انتشار آلاینده‌ها می‌شود، در حالی که اثر تکنیکی از طریق انتقال فناوری و بهبود بهره‌وری، پایداری زیست‌محیطی را ارتقا می‌بخشد. به دلیل تضاد بالقوه بین این دو اثر و تفاوت در اثرگذاری آن‌ها در کشورهای مختلف، تفکیک این اثرات برای طراحی سیاست‌های اثربخش ضروری است.

این مطالعه با بهره‌گیری از مدل CS-ARDL و داده‌های پانل طی سال‌های 2000 تا 2021، اثرات توسعه مالی و FDI بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر در کشورهای منتخب خاورمیانه را تحلیل می‌کند. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که در مراحل اولیه توسعه مالی و FDI، تخصیص ناکارآمد منابع و انتقال صنایع آلاینده، مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر را کاهش می‌دهد. با این حال، در سطوح پیشرفته‌تر، هدایت منابع به سمت پروژه‌های پایدار و استفاده از فناوری‌های نوین، منجر به افزایش مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر می‌شود.

علاوه بر این، کیفیت نهادی و مصرف انرژی فسیلی اثر مثبتی بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر دارند، اما وابستگی به فناوری‌های سنتی تأثیری منفی برجای می‌گذارد. این تحقیق بر ضرورت تقویت زیرساخت‌های مالی، جذب هدفمند سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی، بهبود کیفیت حکمرانی و حذف تدریجی یارانه‌های انرژی فسیلی تأکید دارد. یافته‌های پژوهش مسیری روشن برای کاهش وابستگی به سوخت‌های فسیلی و گذار به انرژی‌های پایدار در کشورهای خاورمیانه ارائه می‌دهد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

TEnergy is a fundamental pillar of production and economic growth, yet Middle Eastern countries' heavy reliance on fossil fuels, despite their renewable energy potential, has exacerbated environmental challenges and public health concerns. Financial development and foreign direct investment (FDI) shape renewable energy consumption through scale and technical effects, where the scale effect increases energy demand and emissions. In contrast, the technical effect fosters sustainability via technology transfer and efficiency improvements. This study employs the CS-ARDL model and panel data from 2000 to 2021 to examine the impact of financial development and FDI on renewable energy consumption in selected Middle Eastern countries, revealing that early-stage financial development and FDI lead to inefficient resource allocation and the relocation of polluting industries, reducing renewable energy adoption. In contrast, advanced financial growth and targeted investments enhance sustainability. Additionally, institutional quality and fossil fuel consumption positively influence renewable energy use, while reliance on traditional technologies hinders progress, highlighting the need to strengthen financial infrastructure, attract targeted foreign investment, improve governance, and phase out fossil fuel subsidies to facilitate a sustainable energy transition.

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