سناریوهای شکوفایی کلانشهر تهران با رویکرد سیاستگذاری
محورهای موضوعی : جغرافیامرتضی محمدخانی 1 , زینب کرکه آبادی 2 , عباس ارغان 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری، گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سمنان، ایران
2 - نویسنده مسئول، دانشیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سمنان، ایران
3 - دانشیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سمنان، ایران
کلید واژه: سناریووبزراد, شکوفایی شهری, کلانشهر تهران, تحلیل ساختاری, واژگان کلیدی: شکوفایی,
چکیده مقاله :
چکیده سیاستگذاری شکوفایی شهری یک مسئله مهم در زمینه توسعه و برنامهریزی شهری است. این مسئله به حل و فصل کردن چگونگی ایجاد شهرها و جوامع با شکوفایی، بهبود کیفیت زندگی شهروندان و تأمین نیازهای فعلی و آینده اشاره دارد. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر بهمنظور تدوین سناریوهای شکوفایی کلانشهر تهران براساس اصول آیندهپژوهی انجام شده است. این پژوهش ازلحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت و روش، توصیفی-تحلیلی و مبتنی بر رویکرد آیندهپژوهی است. جامعه آماری 20 نفر از خبرگان و متخصصین شهری بر اساس نمونهگیری گلوله برفی بود. 49 پیشران اولیه در 6 دسته احصاء و شناسایی شده با روشهای تحلیل اثرات متقابل ساختاری و سناریونویسی در نرمافزارهای MICMAC و Senario Wizard پردازش شده است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان میدهد سناریوی طلایی یا شکوفایی بالای کلانشهر تهران زمانی که وضعیت عوامل کیفیت زندگی با روند رو به رشد و ارتقا مواجه بوده و وضعیت عوامل انسجام و برابری اجتماعی در راستای شکوفایی کلانشهر تهران باشند، به وقوع خواهد پیوست. در واقع در این سناریوها عوامل کلیدی بیشتر از حالت بحرانی دارای حالت مطلوب میباشند. این گروه از سناریوها از بین 21 سناریوی باور کردنی فقط سناریو اول را شامل می شود و با 100 درصد مطلوبیت نسبت به شرایط دیگر (ایستا و بحرانی) غالب میباشد که یک حالت مثبت و امیدوارکنندهای را پیش روی شکوفایی شهری کلانشهر تهران نشان میدهند.
AbstractUrban development policy is an important issue in the field of urban development and planning. This issue refers to solving how to create prosperous cities and communities, improve the quality of life of citizens and meet current and future needs. In this regard, the present research has been carried out in order to compile the prosperity scenarios of Tehran metropolis based on the principles of future studies. This research is practical in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method and based on future research approach. The statistical population was 20 urban experts based on snowball sampling. 49 primary drivers in 6 statistical categories and identified by structural interaction analysis and scenario writing methods have been processed in MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. The results of this research show that the golden scenario or high prosperity of Tehran metropolis will happen when the quality of life factors face a growing trend and the status of social cohesion and equality factors are in line with the prosperity of Tehran metropolis. In fact, in these scenarios, the key factors are more favorable than critical. This group of scenarios includes only the first scenario among the 21 believable scenarios, and with 100% favorability, it prevails over other conditions (static and critical) that show a positive and hopeful state in front of the urban prosperity of Tehran metropolis.
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