Development scenarios of Tehran metropolis with a policy approach

Subject Areas : Geography

morteza mohammadkhani ¹ , Zainab Krake Abadi ² , Abbas Argan ³

1 - PhD. Candidate, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran
2 - Corresponding Author, Associate Prof., Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran
3 - Associate Prof., Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan

Received: 2023-05-03 Accepted : 2023-08-10 Published : 2023-07-23

Keywords: Scenario and Bozrad, Structural analysis, Urban prosperity, Key words: Prosperity, Tehran metropolis,

Abstract :

AbstractUrban development policy is an important issue in the field of urban development and planning. This issue refers to solving how to create prosperous cities and communities, improve the quality of life of citizens and meet current and future needs. In this regard, the present research has been carried out in order to compile the prosperity scenarios of Tehran metropolis based on the principles of future studies. This research is practical in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method and based on future research approach. The statistical population was 20 urban experts based on snowball sampling. 49 primary drivers in 6 statistical categories and identified by structural interaction analysis and scenario writing methods have been processed in MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. The results of this research show that the golden scenario or high prosperity of Tehran metropolis will happen when the quality of life factors face a growing trend and the status of social cohesion and equality factors are in line with the prosperity of Tehran metropolis. In fact, in these scenarios, the key factors are more favorable than critical. This group of scenarios includes only the first scenario among the 21 believable scenarios, and with 100% favorability, it prevails over other conditions (static and critical) that show a positive and hopeful state in front of the urban prosperity of Tehran metropolis.

References:

Abbasi, H. (2022). "Investigation of city prosperity indicators in Khorramabad city." Human Geography Research Quarterly 54(120): 599-615. (in Persian)

Agyeman, J. & Evans, B. (2003). toward just sustainability in urban communities: building equity rights with sustainable solutions, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 590, 35-53.

Akbari, M. and E. Aliakbari (2017). "Interpretive-Structural Modeling of the Factors that Affect the Viability of Tehran Metropolis." Journal of Spatial Planning 21(1): 1-31. (in Persian)

Baek, H.Ch., & Park, H.S. (2012). Changes in renovation policies in the era of sustainability. Energy and Buildings, Vol. 47: 485-496.

Batty, M. (2005). Cities and Complexity: Understanding Cities with Cellular Automata, Agent-Based Models, and Fractals. The MIT Press.

Ben Arimah, B (2017). Infrastructure as a Catalyst for the Prosperity of African Cities, Procedia Engineering, 245-266.

Bertolini, M., Braglia, M. & Carmignani, G. (2006). Application of the AHP methodology in making a proposal for a public work contract. International Journal of Project Management, 24:422-30.

Bettencourt, L. M. a., Lobo, J., Helbing, D., K¨uhnert, C., and West, G. B. (2007). Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(17):7301–6

Bodin-Buyle Z., and C. Hermant-De Callata (2011), Urban Prosperity and Quality of Life in European cities – Beyond GDP, European Union, Brussels, prepared for UNHabitat as part of EU – UN-Habitat collaboration.

Bonaiuto, M., Fornara, F., Ariccio, S., Cancellieri, U. G., & Rahimi, L. (2015). Perceived residential environment quality indicators (PREQIs) relevance for UN-HABITAT City Prosperity Index (CPI). Habitat International, 45, 53-63.

Burton, E. (2000). The Compact City: Just or Just Compact? A Preliminary Analysis. Urban Studies, 37(11):1969–2006.

McCormick, K., Anderberg, S., Coenen, L., and Neij, L. (2013). Advancing sustainable urban transformation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 50:1–11.

Daneshpour, H., . (2020). "Evaluation of the possibility of situating accessibility index among urban prosperity main indexes (Case Study of Shiraz City)." Human Geography Research Quarterly 52(112): 457-476. (in Persian)

Gharmsirinezhad, S., et al. (2023). "Development the Realization of Sustainable Development Pattern Based on Urban Prosperity Indicators (Case Study: New City of Alishahr)." Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement 12(45): 189-203. (in Persian)

Ghorbani, D. R. and S. Noshad (2008). "Smart Growth Strategy in Urban Development, Principles and Approaches." Geography and Development Iranian Journal 6(12): 163- 179. (in Persian)

Habitat, U. N & Word Urban Compaing, (2013). Cities Prosperty Initiative Toolkit.

Habitat, U. N. (2013). State of the world's cities2012/2013 : Prosperity of cities. Routledge.

Habitat, U. N. (2015). Urbanization For Prosperity, 25th Session of the Governing Council 25th Session of the Governing Council, 17 - 23 April, ,Nairobi.

 Habitat, U. N. (2016). The City Prosperity Initiative, United Nations Human Settlements Programme, February, 2016.

Ibrahimzadeh, I., Bareimani, F., & Nasiry, Y. (2004). Slum -dwellers, Solutions and its Special – Civil Abnormalities Case Study: Karimabad Zahedan. Geography and Development, 2(3), 121-146. doi: 10.22111/gdij.2004.3833 (in Persian)

Jackson, Tim. (2009). Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet. London (Earthscan).

Joss, S. (2015). Sustainable cities: Governing for urban innovation. Macmillan International Higher Education.

Korkmaz, C & Balaban, O. (2019). Sustainability of urban regeneration in Turkey: Assessing the performance of the North Ankara Urban Regeneration Project. Habitat International, 95, 1-12.

Mori, K. and Christodoulou, A. (2012). Review of sustainability indices and indicators: Towards a new City Sustainability Index (CSI). Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 32(1):94–106.

Newman, P., & Kenworthy, J. (2015). Cities and sustainability: Overcoming automobile dependence. Routledge.

Sasaki, R. (2014). Urban Prosperity without Growth? Sustainable City Development with Focus on Human Flourishing (Doctoral dissertation).Lund University,

 Statistics Center of Iran (2015): Population and Housing Census of 2016, Tehran. (in Persian)

Stead, D. (2015). What does the quality of governance imply for urban prosperity? Habitat International, 45, 64-69.

UN-Habitat (2013). State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013: Prosperity of Cities. Routledge, New York.

United Nations (2011). Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. Technical report, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations.

United Nations Human Settlements Programme. (2013). State of the world's cities 2012/2013: Prosperity of cities. Routledge.

Wong, C. (2015). A framework for ‘City Prosperity Index’: Linking indicators, analysis and policy. Habitat International, 45, 3-9.

Yigitcanlar, T., Dur, F., & Dizdaroglu, D. (2014). Towards prosperous sustainable cities: A multiscalar urban sustainability assessment approach. Habitat International, 45, 36-46.