چشم‌انداز پسابرجام روابط گازی ایران و روسیه در الگوی مشارکت راهبردی
محورهای موضوعی : روابط بین الملل
سید حسن میرفخرایی
1
(دانشیار گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران)
امید رحیمی
2
(دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مطالعات آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران)
آرش سفیدی کاسین
3
(دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مطالعات آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، ایران، تهران)
کلید واژه: روسیه, بحران سوریه, ایران, برجام, مشارکت راهبردی,
چکیده مقاله :
چکیده گاز طبیعی در سال‌های اخیر به کالایی راهبردی در بازار انرژی تبدیل شده و در حال بازیابی روزافزون جایگاه خود در این مجال می‌باشد. از این رو جمهوری اسلامی ایران و فدراسیون روسیه به دلیل برخورداری از این موهبت الهی، جایگاهی ویژه در این عرصه یافته‌اند. ایران، تاکنون نتوانسته آنطور که مورد انتظار است از این کالای راهبردی در عرصه‌های جهانی بهره ببرد و استفاده از آن تنها به حوزه‌های داخلی محدود بوده است، لکن با امضای برنامه جامع اقدام مشترک(برجام)، دریچه‌های نوینی برای توسعه صنایع و صادرات گاز، پیش‌روی خود قرار داده است. در کنار غرب، یکی از بازیگران مهم این عرصه، فدراسیون روسیه می‌باشد. از این رو این سوال پیش می‌آید که چه چشم‌اندازی در روابط گازی پسابرجام ایران - روسیه وجود داشته و در این راستا چه بایسته‌های سیاست‌گزارانه‌ای پیش‌روی کشورمان قرار دارد؟ در پاسخ می‌توان اینگونه اظهار داشت که با درنظر گرفتن افزایش ظرفیت صادرات گاز ناشی از فرصت‌های پسابرجام، دو کشور فضایی توﺃمان رقابت‌وار و همکاری‌جویانه خواهند داشت که در این میان چیرگی وجهه رقابت یا همکاری به ملاحظات سیاسی و امنیتی دو کشور در سطوح گوناگون بستگی دارد. در حال حاضر تحولات سوریه و اوکراین بستر مناسبی برای همکاری دو کشور فراهم آورده است؛ از این رو روابط فی‌مابین به سمت الگوی مشارکت راهبردی رهنمون شده و به منظور حفظ و ارتقاء آن، سیاستگزاران این عرصه می‌بایست ملزوماتی را در سند چشم‌انداز سیاست‌های گازی برای آینده رعایت نمایند.
Expeditiously regaining its position on the Energy market, Natural Gas has become a strategic commodity during recent decades. Hence Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation due to having this divine blessing, have got a special importance in this domain. Though Iran has not benefited from this strategic commodity in the International fields as expected; The utilization has been just limited to domestic usage. However, signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JCPA), made new ways for industrial developments and exports ahead of Iran. Alongside the west, one of the key players in this field, is the Russian Federation. Therefore, the question arises that what’s the perspective ahead on the post JCPA Iran-Russia gas relations and in this regard, what are the policy making requirements for strategic partnership? Responsively, considering the increase in gas export capacity from post-JCPA opportunities, the two countries will have a simultaneously competitive and cooperative atmosphere; Meanwhile, the dominance of competition or cooperation depends on the political and security considerations of the two countries on different levels. At the moment the changes in Syria and Ukraine crises have provided a fertile ground for cooperation. Accordingly, the relations have led to the strategic partnership, for preserving and promoting, the respective policy makers should consider some requirements in the document of future perspective for gas policies.
منابع:
- CEE (Center for Energy Economics). (2009). Economics of the Energy Industry. Texas: University of Texas at Austin.
- Henderson, James, Mitrova, Tatiana. (2016). Energy Relations between Russia and China: Playing Chess with the Dragon. London: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
- Liuhto, Kari. (2010). Energy in Russia’s foreign policy. Turku: Electronic Publications of Pan-European Institute.
- Mcnabb, David. E. (2016). Vladimir Putin and Russia’s imperial revival. New York: CRC-Press.
- Ehteshami, Anoushiravan. (2016). “Energy cooperation between EU and Iran”, in S. Blokmans, A. Ehteshami and G. Bahgat Eds, EU-Iran Relations after the nuclear deal. Brussels: Centre for European Policy Studies.
- Plekhanov, Sergei. (2016). “Assisted suicide: internal and external causes of the Ukrainian crisis”, in J.L. Black and Michael Johns, The return of the cold war: Ukraine, The west and Russia. New York: Routledge.
- Asseburg, Muriel, Wimmen, Heiko. (2012). “Civil War in Syria: External Actors and Interests as Drivers of Conflict”, SWP Comments, No. 43.
- Bani Nasur, Nader Ibrahim M. (2014). “Syria-Iran Relations (2000-2014)”. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, Vol.4 (12).
- Dunlop, John B. (2004). “Aleksandr Dugin's Foundations of Geopolitics”. Demokratizatsiya, Vol.12 (1).
- Geldenhuys, Deon. (2015). “The comprehensive strategic partnership between South Africa and Russia”. Strategic Review for Southern Africa, Vol.37 (2).
- Har-Zvi, Shay. (2016). “The Return of the Russian Bear to the Middle East”. Middle East Security Studies, Begin–Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, NO.120.
- Mansingh, Surjit, (2005), “India and the US: A Closer Strategic Relationship?”. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol.40 (22).
- Mossallanejad, Abbas. (2014). “The Impact of Strike to Iran on Global Energy Market”. Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol.9 (4).
- Mossallanejad, Abbas. (2016). “The Rise of ISIS and the Future of Iraq’s Security”. Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol.11 (4).
- Tagliapietra, Simone. (2014). “Iran after the (potential) Nuclear deal: What’s next for the country’s natural gas market?”, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Working Paper, No. 31.
- Tichý, Lukáš, Odintsov, Nikita. (2016). “Can Iran Reduce EU Dependence on Russian Gas?”, Middle East Policy, Vol. XXIII (1).
- Unal, Serhan. (2016). “Post-Sanctions Iran and Regional Energy Geopolitics”. Turkish Energy Foundation, No.5.
- Wilkins, Thomas. S. (2008). “Russo-Chinese Strategic Partnership: A new Form of Security Cooperation?”, Contemporary Security Policy, Vol.29 (2).
- Zhonping, Feng, Jing, Huang. (2014). “China’s strategic: partnership diplomacy: engaging with a changing world”. European Strategic Partnership Observatory (ESPO), working paper No. 8.
- Blanco, Luis. (17-20 August 2011). “Strategic Partnership: a new form of association in International Relations?”, Third Global International Studies Conference, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.
- Selim, Gamal M. (31 May – 2 June 2016). “The Syrian Crisis and the Dynamics of a New Cold War”. 2016 Annual Conference of the Canadian Political Science Association. Alberta, Canada.
- Blas, Javier, Kalantari, Hashem, Motevalli, Golnar. (2016). “Total, China Join Iran’s First Gas Deal since Sanctions Eased”. accessible at: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles
- British Petroleum. (2016). “BP Statistical Review of World Energy”, accessible at: www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf.
- Chow, Edward, Hudson, Anne. (2013). “The Russia-EU Gas Relationship: A partnership of necessity”, accessible at: www.csis.org.
- Dutkiewicz, Piotr, Kozhanov, Nikolay. (2016). “Civil War in Syria and the Evolution of Russian-Iranian Relations”, available at: www.epc.ae.
- European Union. (2014). “EU sanctions against Russia over Ukraine crisis”, accessible at: https://europa.eu/newsroom.
- Farsi, Rouzbeh, Esfandiary, Dina. (2016). “An EU Strategy for relations with Iran after the nuclear deal”, available at: www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData.
- Geranmayeh, Ellie, Liik, Kadri. (2016). “The new power couple: Russia and Iran in the Middle East”, available at: www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_186.
- Novak, Aleksandra. (2016). “Russian trade with Iran up 80 percent”, accessible at: www .rt.com/ business.
- Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2007). “Energy Security and Competition Policy”, accessible at: www.oecd.org/competition/abuse.
- Piotrowski, Matt. (2016). “Gas Could Trump Oil in Iran’s Post-Sanctions World”. accessible at: http://energyfuse.org/gas.
- Reuters. (2016). “EU officials to visit Iran in February to develop energy ties”, accessible at: www.reuters.com/article/us-iran.
- Skalamera, Morena. (2014). “Putin’s Asia Strategy for 2015”, available at:http://www.nbr.org/research.
- Skalamera, Morena, Goldthau, Andreas. (2016). “Russia: Playing Hardball or bidding farewell to Europe?”, available at: www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files.
- Sputnik News. (2016). “Gazprom Interested in Projects in Iran, Including Gas Pipeline to India”, accessible at: https://sputniknews.com.
- Tehrantimes. (2016). “Russia, Spain, Italy sign contracts to help exploration of Iranian oilfields”, accessible at: www.tehrantimes.com.
- U.S Department of State. (2015). “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)”, accessible at: www.state.gov/documents.
- Vakhshouri, Sara. (2015). “Iran’s energy policy after the nuclear deal”, available at:https://svbweb.s3.amazonaws.com/media/reports.
- Zvyagelskaya, Irina. (2015). “Russia in a Changing Middle East”, available at: http://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org.
_||_