سنجش و الویت بندی تاب آوری مناطق روستایی در برابر زلزله مورد مطالعه: بخش ویلکیج جنوبی و مرکزی شهرستان نمین
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ایوحید طالعی حور 1 , محمد ظاهری 2 , سهیلا باختر 3 , اشکان شفیعی 4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
3 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
4 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
کلید واژه: پایداری, مخاطرات طبیعی, زلزله, تابآوری, تابآوری روستایی,
چکیده مقاله :
تابآوری روستایی رویکردی اجتماع محوربرای ارتقای آمادگی اجتماعات روستایی دربرابر ناپایداری‌های ناشی ازمخاطرات است. کاهش آسیب‌پذیری روستائیان از طریق افزایش سطح تابآوری و ارتقای انعطاف‌پذیری در برابر پیامدهای طبیعی، یکی از ویژگی-های مدیریت، برنامهریزی و توسعه باشد که از طریق شناسایی عوامل تأثیرگذار بر تقویت تابآوری امکان‌پذیر است. پژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف کاربدی و بر اساس ماهیت توصیفی- تحلیلی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش 24 روستای دارای سکنه دهستان ویلکیج جنوبی و مرکزی با جمعیت 18249 نفر است. حجم نمونه بر اساس فرمول کوکران380 نفر برآورد گردید که پراکندگی تعداد نمونه‌ها در روستاها متناسب با جمعیت آنها و شیوه انتخاب نمونه در هر روستا به صورت تصادفی سیستماتیک بوده است. برای تنظیم پرسشنامه از پنج شاخص تابآوری(اقتصادی، اجتماعی، کالبدی- محیطی، نهادی و روانی) در قالب 45 گویه بهره گرفته شد. میزان پایایی پرسشنامه بر اساس آلفای کرونباخ 91/0 ارزیابی گردید. برای وزن‌دهی شاخص‌ها از تکنیک آنتروپی شانون استفاده گردید، جهت سطح‌بندی روستاها از تکنیک‌های تصمیم‌گیری topsis، vikor و saw و برای ادغام نتایج نیز از تکنیک کپلند استفاده گردید. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد معیار کمک هزینه‌های دولتی(027/0) مهمترین معیار و وابستگی به مکان(016/0) کم اهمیت‌ترین معیار است. نتایج سطح‌بندی روستاها بیانگر این است هشت روستا در سطح خوب، 10 روستا در سطح متوسط و شش روستا نیز در سطح ضعیف قرار دارند. نتایج آزمون t تک نمونه‌ای با میانگین 93/2 نشان داد که تاب-آوری روستاهای دهستان ویلکیج جنوبی و مرکزی پایین‌تر از حد متوسط است. می‌توان دریافت تابآوری در برابر زلزله در وضعیت مناسبی قرار ندارد و زلزله خطری جدی است که مناطق روستایی را تهدید می‌کند
Rural resilience is a community oriented approch to promote preparedness of rural communities versus instability arising from risks. reducing the vulnerability of villagers by increasing the flexibility versus natural consequence is one of the features of managment, planing and development that is possible through identifiying effective factors on resilience strengthen.. This study is application in based on objective and descriptive- analytical in based on nature. The statistical population is 24 inhabited villages of the southern and central Wilkij villages with a population of 18,249 people. The sample size was estimated at 380 people based on the Cochran formula which disperses the number of samples in the villages proportionate to their population and Sample selection method in each village has been randomized systematically.To adjust questionnaire was used of the five resilience indicators in the form of 45 items. The reliability of the was evaluated based on Cronbach's Alpha of 0.91.To weigh indicators was used from the Shannon Entropy technique, to level the villages was used from decision techniques of Topsis, Vikor and Saw and to integrate the results was used by Kopeld Technique. Findings show government grants (0.027) is the most important criterion and dependence on location (0.016) is the least important criterion. The results of the leveling of the villages indicate this eight villages are on a good level, 10 villages on average six villages are also at weak levels. The results of one-sample t-test with a mean of 2.93 showed that the resilience of the villages of the southern and central Wilkij villages was lower than the average. It can be concluded that resilience against earthquake is not in good condition and the earthquake is a serious danger that threaten to rural areas.
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