تحلیل زمانی و مکانی وقوع گرد و غبار در استان لرستان
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت بلایای طبیعی
رضا چمن پیرا
1
,
ابراهیم کریمی سنگچینی
2
,
علی اکبر نوروزی
3
1 - استادیار، بخش تحقیقات حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان لرستان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، خرم آباد، ایران.
2 - استادیار، بخش تحقیقات حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان لرستان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، خرم آباد، ایران *(مسوول مکاتبات)
3 - استادیار، پژوهشکده حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران.
تاریخ دریافت : 1399/03/16
تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/05/01
تاریخ انتشار : 1400/06/01
کلید واژه:
تحلیل آماری,
گردو غبار,
تغییرات زمانی و مکانی,
استان لرستان,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: در حال حاضر مدیریت خطر گردوغبار در مقیاس جهانی و به‌ویژه در منطقه خاورمیانه به یک چالش جدی تبدیل شده است. این تحقیق در استان لرستان با هدف تحلیل زمانی و مکانی وقوع گرد و غبار جهت تسکین و کنترل ریسک در راستای آمایش و توسعه پایدار انجام شده است.روش بررسی: تغییرات طوفان گردوغبار برای 8 ایستگاه سینوپتیک استان در یک دوره زمانی 17 ساله (2016-2000) مورد آنالیز قرار گرفت. برای تغیرات مکانی مدل‌های مختلف درونیابی برازش داده شد و مدل با کمترین MAE و RMSE ان‍ت‍خاب شده است. س‍پ‍س به ک‍م‍ک مدل درونیابی کوکریجینگ درونیابی با ه‍م‍س‍ای‍گ‍ی‌ه‍ای مختلف انجام شده است که حاصل آن تعداد زیادی ن‍ق‍ش‍ه است. این نقشه‌ها به شبکه سلولی در محیط GIS تبدیل گردید.یافته ها: نتایج حاصل از بررسی سالیانه پدیده طوفان گردوغبار نشان داد که ایستگاه خرم‌آباد با میانگین فراوانی ۴۵روز سال، بیش ترین تعداد روزها را در کل استان مورد مطالعه دارد. بیش‌ترین فراوانی طوفان گردوغبار در ماه‌های ژوئن و ژوئیه و کمترین فراوانی در ماه نوامبر و دسامبر می‌باشد. استان لرستان از نظر تعداد روزهای زیر ۱۰ و یک کیلومتر، به ترتیب بیش از ۲۳ و ۷۱ درصد احتمال خطر بالای طوفان گردوغبار را دارد.بحث و نتیجه گیری: با توجه به خطر بالای گرد وغبار، برنامه‌های پیش‌گیری و کنترل و نیز برنامه‌های سازگاری توسعه‌ای استان پیشنهاد می‌شود که بتوان به اهداف آمایش و حفاظت جهت جلوگیری از توسعه بیابان‌زایی دست یافت. این مطالعه به عنوان یک پژوهش کاربردی می‌تواند نسخه خوبی برای مسئولان، مدیران و دست‌اندرکاران بلایای طبیعی و توسعه استان لرستان محسوب شود.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Background and Objective: Today, dust risk management is critical global challenge, especially in the Middle East. The aim of this study is to analysis temporal and spatial changes of dust occurrence in Lorestan province. This analysis used for risk control and adaptation to achieve sustainable development areas.Material and Methodology: Changes in dusts were analyzed during a 17-year period (2000-2016) for 8 synoptic stations. Best model, with lowest MAE and RMSE, was selected for analyzing spatial variations. The CoKriging model interpolation was used to provide dust risk map. Then, this map converted in to a pixel grid in ArcGIS software.Findings: The results of annual dust survey show that Khorramabad station had the highest number of days with the average frequency of 16 days in year. The highest frequency of dust storms was in June and July whiles the lowest was in November and December. The results of risk zonation mapping that about 21 And 71 percent of the region has a high risk of the dust storm in term of below 10 and one kilometer of horizontal visibility, respectively.Discussion and Conclusion: Due to the high risk of dust, it is possible to provide prevention and control programs and also compatibility of the regional development goals with Iran land use planning and conservation and restoration of soil and water resources in order to achieve the preventing desertification and climate change. This research with a promising and pragmatic approach has provided a remarkable description to policy makers, managers, and other natural disaster stakeholders in the of Lorestan province development.
منابع و مأخذ:
Goudie, A. S. 2009. Dust storms: Resent Developments. Journal of Environmental Management, 90, Issue. 1, pp 89–94.
Indoitu, R., Orlovsky, L., Orlovsky, N. 2012. Dust storms in Central Asia: Spatial and temporal variations. Journal of Arid Environments, Vol. 85, pp. 62–70.
Díaz, J., Cristina, L., Carmona, R., Russo, A., Ortiz, C., Salvador, P., Machado, R. T. 2017. Saharan dust intrusions in Spain: Health impacts and associated synoptic conditions. Environmental Research, Vol. 156, pp 455-467.
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Mohammadi, F., Kamali, S., Eskandary, M. 2014. Tracing dust sources in different atmosphere levels of tehran using hybrid single-particle lagrangian integrated trajectory (Hysplit) model. Scientific Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences, Vol. 3, Issue. 7, pp 559-571.
Sivakumar, M. 2005. An impact of sand storms/dust storms on Agriculture. Natural Disasters and Extreme Events in Agriculture, Vol. 7, pp 159-177.
Conrad, A., Mcpherson, B., Lopez-Nicora, H., D'Amico, K., Wood, D., Bonello, P. 2019. Disease incidence and spatial distribution of host resistance in a coast live oak/sudden oak death pathosystem. Forest Ecology and Management, Vol.e 433, pp 618-624.
Hemmati, N.A. 2005. Investigating the frequency of soil storms in the central and southwestern regions of the Iran. M.Sc. Thesis in Synoptic Orientation, Faculty of Geophysics, University of Tehran. (In Persian)
Ekhtesasi, M.R., Ahmadi, H., Khalili, A., Saremi Naeini, M.A., Rajabi, M.R. 2006. An application of wind rose, storm rose and sand rose in the analysis of wind erosion and determining the direction of moving sands. (Case study area: Yazd-Ardekan Basin). Journal of the Iranian Natural Resources, Vol. 59, No. 3, pp. 533-541. (In Persian)
Shamshiri, S., Jafari, R., Soltani, S., Ramezani, N. 2014. Dust Detection and Mapping in Kermanshah Province Using MODIS Satellite Imagery. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol. 3, No. 8, pp. 29-42. (In Persian)
Ghaffari, D., Mostafazadeh, R. 2016. An investigation on sources, consequences and solutions of dust storm phenomenon in Iran. Journal of Conservation and Utilization of Natural Resources, Vol. 4, pp. 107-125. (In Persian)
Alimahmoodi Sarab, S., Shataee Jouybari, S., Rashki, A., Moayeri, M.H. 2018. The Estimate of Dust Concentration Using of Weather Variable (A Case study: Ahvaz City). Journal of Natural Environment, Vol.71, Issue. 3, pp. 385 – 397. (In Persian)
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Chen, S., Yuan, T., Zhang, X., Zhang, G., Feng, T., Zhao, D., Zang, Z., Shujie, L., Ma, X., Jiang, N., Zhang, J., Yang, F., Lu H. 2018. Dust modeling over East Asia during the summer of 2010 using the WRF-Chem model. Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer, Vol. 213, pp. 1-12.
Jouhari, F., Ownegh, M., Hoseinalizadeh, M. 2015. Adaptation of satellite images with meteorological statistics in the study of three dust waves (Case study: Khuzestan and Ilam provinces). First International Dust Conference, 6p.
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Madhavan, , Qu, J. Hao, X. 2017. Saharan dust detection using multi-sensor satellite measurements. Heliyon, Vol. 3, Issue. 2, pp. 1-13.
Mehrabi, Sh., Soltani, S., Jafari, R. 2015. Relationship between climatic parameters and the occurrence of dust: A Case Study of Khuzestan province. Journal of Science and Technology of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Soil and Water Science, Vol. 65, Issue. 71, pp. 68-80. (In Persian)
Ghadirian, O., Hemami, M., Soffianian, A., Purmanafi, S., Malekian, M. 2018. The zoning of Lorestan Province’s forests decline risk using logistic regression model. Journal of Animal Environment, Vol. 10, Issue. 3, pp. 495-502. (In Persian)
Zolfaghari, H., Masoumpuor Samakosh, J., Shaygan Mehr, Sh., Ahmadi, M. 2011. A Synoptic investigation of dust storms in western regions of Iran during 2005-2010 (a case study of widespread wave in July 2009). Geography and Environmental Planning, Vol. 22, Issue. 3(43), pp. 17-34. (In Persian)
Omidvar, K. 2012. Synoptic survey and analysis of sand storm in Yazd-Ardakan plain, Word Applied Sciences Journal, Vol. 19, Issue. 2, pp. 198-204.
Nadiri, A.A., Gharekhani, M., Khatibi, R., Asghari Moghaddam, A. 2017. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability using supervised committee to combine fuzzy logic models. Environ Science Pollution Resources, Vol. 24, Issue. 9, pp. 8562–8577.
Isaaks, E.H., Srivastava, R.M. 1989. An Introduction to Applied Geostatistic. Oxford University Press New York, P.561.
Aguilar, F., Agüera, F., Carvajal, F. 2005. Effects of Terrain Morphology, Sampling Density, and Interpolation Methods on Grid DEM Accuracy. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, Vol. 71, pp 805-816.
Xie, Y., Chena, T., Mei, J., Leia, Q., Yanga, B., Guoa, S., Zhou, X. 2011. Spatial distribution of soil heavy metal pollution estimated by different interpolation methods: Accuracy and uncertainty analysis, Chemosphere, Vol. 82, Issue. 3, pp. 468-476.
Arami, S.A., Ownegh, M., Mohammadian Behbahani, A., Akbari, M., Zarasvandi, A. 2018. The analysis of dust hazard studies in southwest region of Iran in 22 years (1996-2017). Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts, Vol. 5, Issue. 1, pp. 39-66. (In Persian)
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Goudie, A. S. 2009. Dust storms: Resent Developments. Journal of Environmental Management, 90, Issue. 1, pp 89–94.
Indoitu, R., Orlovsky, L., Orlovsky, N. 2012. Dust storms in Central Asia: Spatial and temporal variations. Journal of Arid Environments, Vol. 85, pp. 62–70.
Díaz, J., Cristina, L., Carmona, R., Russo, A., Ortiz, C., Salvador, P., Machado, R. T. 2017. Saharan dust intrusions in Spain: Health impacts and associated synoptic conditions. Environmental Research, Vol. 156, pp 455-467.
Ataii, H., Ahmadi, F. 2010. Dust as one of the environmental problems of the Islamic world (Case study: Khuzestan province). Fourth International Congress of Geographers of the Islamic World, pp 4-19. (In Persian)
Liu, M., Westphal, D., Wang, S., Shimizu, A., Sugimoto, N., Zhou, J., Chen,Y. 2003. A high-resolution numerical study of the Asian dust storms of April 2001. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108. 10.1029/2002JD003178.
Mohammadi, F., Kamali, S., Eskandary, M. 2014. Tracing dust sources in different atmosphere levels of tehran using hybrid single-particle lagrangian integrated trajectory (Hysplit) model. Scientific Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences, Vol. 3, Issue. 7, pp 559-571.
Sivakumar, M. 2005. An impact of sand storms/dust storms on Agriculture. Natural Disasters and Extreme Events in Agriculture, Vol. 7, pp 159-177.
Conrad, A., Mcpherson, B., Lopez-Nicora, H., D'Amico, K., Wood, D., Bonello, P. 2019. Disease incidence and spatial distribution of host resistance in a coast live oak/sudden oak death pathosystem. Forest Ecology and Management, Vol.e 433, pp 618-624.
Hemmati, N.A. 2005. Investigating the frequency of soil storms in the central and southwestern regions of the Iran. M.Sc. Thesis in Synoptic Orientation, Faculty of Geophysics, University of Tehran. (In Persian)
Ekhtesasi, M.R., Ahmadi, H., Khalili, A., Saremi Naeini, M.A., Rajabi, M.R. 2006. An application of wind rose, storm rose and sand rose in the analysis of wind erosion and determining the direction of moving sands. (Case study area: Yazd-Ardekan Basin). Journal of the Iranian Natural Resources, Vol. 59, No. 3, pp. 533-541. (In Persian)
Shamshiri, S., Jafari, R., Soltani, S., Ramezani, N. 2014. Dust Detection and Mapping in Kermanshah Province Using MODIS Satellite Imagery. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol. 3, No. 8, pp. 29-42. (In Persian)
Ghaffari, D., Mostafazadeh, R. 2016. An investigation on sources, consequences and solutions of dust storm phenomenon in Iran. Journal of Conservation and Utilization of Natural Resources, Vol. 4, pp. 107-125. (In Persian)
Alimahmoodi Sarab, S., Shataee Jouybari, S., Rashki, A., Moayeri, M.H. 2018. The Estimate of Dust Concentration Using of Weather Variable (A Case study: Ahvaz City). Journal of Natural Environment, Vol.71, Issue. 3, pp. 385 – 397. (In Persian)
Xuan, J., Sokolik, I., Hao, J., Guo, F., Mao, H., Yang G. 2004. Identification and characterization of sources of atmospheric mineral dust in East Asia. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 38, Issue. 36, pp. 6239-6252.
Wang, X., Dong, Z., Zhang, C., Qian, G., Luo W. 2009. Characterization of the composition of dust fallout and identification of dust sources in arid and semiarid North China. Geomorphology, Vol. 112, pp. 144–157.
Baddock, M., Bullard, J., Bryant R. 2009. Dust source identification using MODIS: A comparison of techniques applied to the Lake Eyre Basin, Australia. Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 113, pp. 1511-1523.
Maghrabi, A., Alharbi, B., Tapper, N. 2011. Impact of the March 2009 dust event in Saudi Arabia on aerosol optical properties, meteorological parameters, sky temperature and emissivity. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 45, pp. 2164-2173.
Chen, S., Yuan, T., Zhang, X., Zhang, G., Feng, T., Zhao, D., Zang, Z., Shujie, L., Ma, X., Jiang, N., Zhang, J., Yang, F., Lu H. 2018. Dust modeling over East Asia during the summer of 2010 using the WRF-Chem model. Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer, Vol. 213, pp. 1-12.
Jouhari, F., Ownegh, M., Hoseinalizadeh, M. 2015. Adaptation of satellite images with meteorological statistics in the study of three dust waves (Case study: Khuzestan and Ilam provinces). First International Dust Conference, 6p.
Akbary, M., Farahbakhshy M. 2015. Analyzing and Tracing of Dust Hazard in Recent Years in Kermanshah Province. International Journal of Environmental Research, Vol. 9, Issue. 2, pp. 673-682.
Madhavan, , Qu, J. Hao, X. 2017. Saharan dust detection using multi-sensor satellite measurements. Heliyon, Vol. 3, Issue. 2, pp. 1-13.
Mehrabi, Sh., Soltani, S., Jafari, R. 2015. Relationship between climatic parameters and the occurrence of dust: A Case Study of Khuzestan province. Journal of Science and Technology of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Soil and Water Science, Vol. 65, Issue. 71, pp. 68-80. (In Persian)
Ghadirian, O., Hemami, M., Soffianian, A., Purmanafi, S., Malekian, M. 2018. The zoning of Lorestan Province’s forests decline risk using logistic regression model. Journal of Animal Environment, Vol. 10, Issue. 3, pp. 495-502. (In Persian)
Zolfaghari, H., Masoumpuor Samakosh, J., Shaygan Mehr, Sh., Ahmadi, M. 2011. A Synoptic investigation of dust storms in western regions of Iran during 2005-2010 (a case study of widespread wave in July 2009). Geography and Environmental Planning, Vol. 22, Issue. 3(43), pp. 17-34. (In Persian)
Omidvar, K. 2012. Synoptic survey and analysis of sand storm in Yazd-Ardakan plain, Word Applied Sciences Journal, Vol. 19, Issue. 2, pp. 198-204.
Nadiri, A.A., Gharekhani, M., Khatibi, R., Asghari Moghaddam, A. 2017. Assessment of groundwater vulnerability using supervised committee to combine fuzzy logic models. Environ Science Pollution Resources, Vol. 24, Issue. 9, pp. 8562–8577.
Isaaks, E.H., Srivastava, R.M. 1989. An Introduction to Applied Geostatistic. Oxford University Press New York, P.561.
Aguilar, F., Agüera, F., Carvajal, F. 2005. Effects of Terrain Morphology, Sampling Density, and Interpolation Methods on Grid DEM Accuracy. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, Vol. 71, pp 805-816.
Xie, Y., Chena, T., Mei, J., Leia, Q., Yanga, B., Guoa, S., Zhou, X. 2011. Spatial distribution of soil heavy metal pollution estimated by different interpolation methods: Accuracy and uncertainty analysis, Chemosphere, Vol. 82, Issue. 3, pp. 468-476.
Arami, S.A., Ownegh, M., Mohammadian Behbahani, A., Akbari, M., Zarasvandi, A. 2018. The analysis of dust hazard studies in southwest region of Iran in 22 years (1996-2017). Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts, Vol. 5, Issue. 1, pp. 39-66. (In Persian)
