سنجش و ارزیابی میزان تاب‌آوری مناطق شهری در برابر سیلاب‌های شهری (مطالعه-ی موردی: منطقه 4 تهران)
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت بلایای طبیعی
مصطفی ناهید
1
(دکترای رشته جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سمنان، ایران.)
محمدرضا زند مقدم
2
(دانشیار جغرافیای طبیعی، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، سمنان، ایران.*(مسوول مکاتبات))
زینب کرکه ابادی
3
(دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، سمنان، ایران.)
تاریخ دریافت : 1399/07/28
تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/12/08
تاریخ انتشار : 1401/05/01
کلید واژه:
سیلاب شهری,
بام سبز,
تاب‌آوری,
مدل SWMM,
جوی باغچه,
منطقه 4 شهرداری تهران,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: با توجه به رشد سریع شهرها و افزایش شهرنشینی در دهه های اخیر، رواناب شهری و خسارت های ناشی از سیل یکی از مسائل مهم و اساسی در عرصه مدیریت شهری می‌باشد. هدف از این مطالعه در بخش اول؛ شبیه سازی کمی سیلاب ناشی از بارندگی برای منطقه 4 تهران برای سال های 1349-1395 با استفاده از مدل SWMM و ارزیابی تاب آوری ناشی از سیلاب در این منطقه می‌باشد.
روش بررسی: شبیه سازی برای رگبارهای شش ساعته با دوره ی بازگشت های 2، 5 و 10 ساله و برای مدت 12 ساعت در سال 1399 انجام پذیرفت. در این تحقیق دو طرح از بهترین راهکارهای مدیریتی (BMP) تحت سناریوی جوی باغچه و بام سبز و ترکیب هر دو سناریو، جهت کنترل حداکثر رواناب از نظر کمی انجام گرفته است و در نهایت میزان کارایی آنها در کاهش حجم کل رواناب خروجی از حوضه، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در بخش دوم؛ ارزیابی و تحلیل تاب آوری ناشی از سیلاب شهری در نواحی 9 گانه منطقه 4 تهران در چهار بُعد: اجتماعی- فرهنگی، اقتصادی، مدیریتی- نهادی و کالبدی پرداخته شده است. این بخش از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از لحاظ روش پیمایشی و توصیفی-تحلیلی می باشد. جامعه آماری تحقیق، کل شهروندان منطقه 4 هستند که از میان آنها حجم نمونه از طریق فرمول کوکران 384 نفر محاسبه شد.
یافته ها: با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده، سناریو سوم (ترکیب دو سناریو اول و دوم) بیشترین تاثیر را در کاهش عمق جریان و دبی جریان در کل شبکه جمع آوری آب سطحی خواهد داشت. یافته های پژوهش در بخش ارزیابی و تحلیل تاب آوری نشان داد که ناحیه 5 منطقه 4 تهران مطلوبترین منطقه و ناحیه 1 و 8 منطقه 4 نامطلوبترین منطقه از لحاظ تاب آوری در برابر سیلاب شهری می‌باشد.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: نواحی 4 و 9 از لحاظ تا ب آوری _اجتماعی-فرهنگی، اقتصادی، مدیریتی-نهادی) در رتبه ی آخر قرار دارد که بیانگر آن است که این ناحیه در برخی موارد دچار ضعف است ونیاز است برای کاهش میزان آسیب پذیری، مورد توجه مسئولان قرار بگیرد.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Background and Objective: Due to the rapid growth of cities and increasing urbanization in recent decades, urban runoff and flood damage is one of the most important and fundamental issues in the field of urban management. The purpose of this study is in the first part; Quantitative simulation of floods caused by rainfall for region 4 of Tehran for the years 1349-1396 using the SWMM model.
Material and Methodology: The simulation was performed for six-hour showers with 2, 5 and 10 year return periods for 12 hours. In this research, two projects of the best management strategies (BMP) under the garden and green roof climate scenario and a combination of both scenarios to control the maximum runoff in terms of quantity and finally their efficiency in reducing the total volume of runoff out of the basin, is studied. In the second part; Evaluation and analysis of resilience caused by urban floods in the 9 districts of Tehran's 4th district in four dimensions: socio-cultural, economic, managerial-institutional and physical. This section is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of survey and descriptive-analytical methods. The statistical population of the study is the total citizens of Region 4, of which the sample size was calculated using the Cochran's formula of 384 people. According to the obtained results, the third scenario (combining the first and second scenarios) will have the greatest impact on reducing the flow depth and flow rate in the entire surface water collection network.
Findings: Findings of the research in the field of resilience assessment and analysis showed that District 5, District 4 of Tehran is the most desirable district and District 1 and District 8, 4 are the most undesirable in terms of resilience against urban floods.
Discussion and Conclusion: Districts 4 and 9 are ranked last in terms of resilience-cultural, economic, managerial-institutional), which indicates that this area is weak in some cases, which is to reduce the level of vulnerability. to be noticed.
منابع و مأخذ:
Beck, N. G., Conley, G., Kanner, L., & Mathias, M. (2017). An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions. Journal of environmental management, 193,257-269.
Jiang, L. E. I., Chen, Y. A. N. G. B. O., & Wang, H. U. A. N. Y. U. (2015). Urban flood simulation based on the SWMM model. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 368, 186-191.
Babaei, S., Ghazavi, R., & Erfanian, M. (2018). Urban flood simulation and prioritization of critical urban sub-catchments using SWMM model and PROMETHEE II approach. Physicsand Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 105, 3-11.
Shahbazi, A. (2013). Urban runoff management to reduce risks using SWMM model: Case study: Mahdasht town (Doctoral dissertation, MSc thesis).
Li, Q., Wang, F., Yu, Y., Huang, Z., Li, M., & Guan, Y. (2019). Comprehensive performance evaluation of LID practices for the sponge city construction: a case study in Guangxi, China. Journal of environmental management, 231, 10-20.
Cai, Y. P., Huang, G. H., Tan, Q., & Chen, B. (2011). Identification of optimal strategies for improving eco-resilience to floods in ecologically vulnerable regions of a wetland. Ecological Modelling, 222(2), 360-369.
Mozaffari, J., & KOBARFARD, M. (2017). nvestigation of qualitative and quantit ative management at urban flood with EPA SWMM model; Case study District 22 of Tehran.7(27).
León, J., & March, A. (2014). Urban morphology as a tool for supporting tsunami rapid resilience: A case study of Talcahuano, Chile. Habitat International, 43, 250-262.
Choi K-S and Ball J, (2002). Parameter estimation for urban runoff modeling. Urban Water (4): 31-41,
Dongquan, Z., Jining, C., Haozheng, W., Qingyuan, T., Shangbing, C., & Zheng, S. (2009). GIS-based urban rainfall-runoff modeling using an automatic catchment-discretization approach: a case study in Macau. Environmental Earth Sciences, 59(2), 465-472.
Lin, J.-L., G.N. Kiladis, B.E. Mapes, K.M. Weickmann, K.R. Sperber, W. Lin, M.C. Wheeler, S.D. Schubert, A. Del Genio, L.J. Donner, S. Emori, J.-F. Gueremy, F. Hourdin, P.J. Rasch, E. Roeckner, and J.F. Scinocca, 2006: Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate models. Part 1: Convective signals. J. Climate, 19, 2665-2690, doi:10.1175/1CL13735.1.
Zoppou, C. 2001. Review of urban storm wa-ter models. Environmental Modelling & Software16, 195–231 pp.
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Ramezanzadeh Lesboui, Mehdi and Roardeh, Hemmatollah and Yousefi, Yadollah and Safari, Behnam, 2015, Analysis of Factors Affecting Farmers' Resilience to Drought Case Study: Farmers in Rural Cities (Darab, Larestan, Estahban), Third Regional Conference Climate change and global warming, Zanjan » https://civilica.com/doc/732059. (In Persian)
Rafieian, Mojtaba, Rezaei, Mohammad Reza, Asgari, Ali, Parhizkar, Akbar, Shayan, Siavash (2011). conceptual explanation of resilience and creation of its indicator in the community base disaster management spatial planning (modares human sciences) winter, volume 15, number 4 (72); Page(s) 19 To 41. (In Persian)
Shayan, Molisen, Paydar, Abuzar, Bazvand, Sajjad. (2017). impact analysis of upgrading the indicators of resilience over sustainability of rural settlements against floods (item: rural areas of zarrindasht county) environmental hazards management jurnal, Summer, Volume 4, Number 2; Page(s) 103 To 121. (In Persian)
Rezaei, Mohammad Reza (2013). valuating the economic and institutional resilience of urban communities to natural disasters using promethe technique case study; tehran districts. emergency management spring-suminer, volume 2, number 3; Page(s) 25 To 36. (In Persian)
Badri, Seyed Ali; Ramezanzadeh Lesboli, Mehdi; Askari, Ali; Ghadiri Masoom, Mojtaba; Salmani, Mohammad (2013) The role of local management in improving resilience to natural disasters with emphasis on floodsCase study: Cheshmeh Kileh basin in Tonekabon Country and Sardabrood basin in Kelardasht Country. Journal of Crisis Management Research, 2, (3), 39-50. (In Persian)
Ghazanfarpour, Sedaghat Kish, Soleimani Domaneh and Sabahi Garaghani. (1398). On the Evaluation of the Reaction of Urban Managers Facing Flood as an Environmental Hazard with Emphasis on Resiliency (Case Study: Jiroft City). Geography and Sustainability of Environment 30(2019) 107-127. (In Persian)
Moazami, Baharel, Rahimi, Mahmoud. (2016). Assessing and formulating resilience strategies against crisis in the old urban context (Case study: Faizabad neighborhood of Kermanshah). Geography and Environmental Studies, 5 (18), 23-34. (In Persian)
Kavusi, Ismail. (2010). the role of strategic planning in human resource development (hrd), iranian journal of public policy in management fall, volume I, number 2; Page(s) 147 To 180. (In Persian)
Memarzadeh, Gholamreza, Sarfarazi, Mehrzad. (1389). Investigating the steps of the crisis management process in the organization, Crisis Management Research Journal, Strategic Research Center, Vice President for Cultural and Social Research, No. 51,9-76. (In Persian)
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Beck, N. G., Conley, G., Kanner, L., & Mathias, M. (2017). An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions. Journal of environmental management, 193,257-269.
Jiang, L. E. I., Chen, Y. A. N. G. B. O., & Wang, H. U. A. N. Y. U. (2015). Urban flood simulation based on the SWMM model. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 368, 186-191.
Babaei, S., Ghazavi, R., & Erfanian, M. (2018). Urban flood simulation and prioritization of critical urban sub-catchments using SWMM model and PROMETHEE II approach. Physicsand Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 105, 3-11.
Shahbazi, A. (2013). Urban runoff management to reduce risks using SWMM model: Case study: Mahdasht town (Doctoral dissertation, MSc thesis).
Li, Q., Wang, F., Yu, Y., Huang, Z., Li, M., & Guan, Y. (2019). Comprehensive performance evaluation of LID practices for the sponge city construction: a case study in Guangxi, China. Journal of environmental management, 231, 10-20.
Cai, Y. P., Huang, G. H., Tan, Q., & Chen, B. (2011). Identification of optimal strategies for improving eco-resilience to floods in ecologically vulnerable regions of a wetland. Ecological Modelling, 222(2), 360-369.
Mozaffari, J., & KOBARFARD, M. (2017). nvestigation of qualitative and quantit ative management at urban flood with EPA SWMM model; Case study District 22 of Tehran.7(27).
León, J., & March, A. (2014). Urban morphology as a tool for supporting tsunami rapid resilience: A case study of Talcahuano, Chile. Habitat International, 43, 250-262.
Choi K-S and Ball J, (2002). Parameter estimation for urban runoff modeling. Urban Water (4): 31-41,
Dongquan, Z., Jining, C., Haozheng, W., Qingyuan, T., Shangbing, C., & Zheng, S. (2009). GIS-based urban rainfall-runoff modeling using an automatic catchment-discretization approach: a case study in Macau. Environmental Earth Sciences, 59(2), 465-472.
Lin, J.-L., G.N. Kiladis, B.E. Mapes, K.M. Weickmann, K.R. Sperber, W. Lin, M.C. Wheeler, S.D. Schubert, A. Del Genio, L.J. Donner, S. Emori, J.-F. Gueremy, F. Hourdin, P.J. Rasch, E. Roeckner, and J.F. Scinocca, 2006: Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate models. Part 1: Convective signals. J. Climate, 19, 2665-2690, doi:10.1175/1CL13735.1.
Zoppou, C. 2001. Review of urban storm wa-ter models. Environmental Modelling & Software16, 195–231 pp.
Phillips, B.C., Yu, S., Thompson, G.R. and Silva, N. 2005. ID and 2D Modelling of urban drain-age systems using XP-SWMM and TUFLOW. 10th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Copenha-gen, Denmark, 21-26 August, 8 pp.
Ramezanzadeh Lesboui, Mehdi and Roardeh, Hemmatollah and Yousefi, Yadollah and Safari, Behnam, 2015, Analysis of Factors Affecting Farmers' Resilience to Drought Case Study: Farmers in Rural Cities (Darab, Larestan, Estahban), Third Regional Conference Climate change and global warming, Zanjan » https://civilica.com/doc/732059. (In Persian)
Rafieian, Mojtaba, Rezaei, Mohammad Reza, Asgari, Ali, Parhizkar, Akbar, Shayan, Siavash (2011). conceptual explanation of resilience and creation of its indicator in the community base disaster management spatial planning (modares human sciences) winter, volume 15, number 4 (72); Page(s) 19 To 41. (In Persian)
Shayan, Molisen, Paydar, Abuzar, Bazvand, Sajjad. (2017). impact analysis of upgrading the indicators of resilience over sustainability of rural settlements against floods (item: rural areas of zarrindasht county) environmental hazards management jurnal, Summer, Volume 4, Number 2; Page(s) 103 To 121. (In Persian)
Rezaei, Mohammad Reza (2013). valuating the economic and institutional resilience of urban communities to natural disasters using promethe technique case study; tehran districts. emergency management spring-suminer, volume 2, number 3; Page(s) 25 To 36. (In Persian)
Badri, Seyed Ali; Ramezanzadeh Lesboli, Mehdi; Askari, Ali; Ghadiri Masoom, Mojtaba; Salmani, Mohammad (2013) The role of local management in improving resilience to natural disasters with emphasis on floodsCase study: Cheshmeh Kileh basin in Tonekabon Country and Sardabrood basin in Kelardasht Country. Journal of Crisis Management Research, 2, (3), 39-50. (In Persian)
Ghazanfarpour, Sedaghat Kish, Soleimani Domaneh and Sabahi Garaghani. (1398). On the Evaluation of the Reaction of Urban Managers Facing Flood as an Environmental Hazard with Emphasis on Resiliency (Case Study: Jiroft City). Geography and Sustainability of Environment 30(2019) 107-127. (In Persian)
Moazami, Baharel, Rahimi, Mahmoud. (2016). Assessing and formulating resilience strategies against crisis in the old urban context (Case study: Faizabad neighborhood of Kermanshah). Geography and Environmental Studies, 5 (18), 23-34. (In Persian)
Kavusi, Ismail. (2010). the role of strategic planning in human resource development (hrd), iranian journal of public policy in management fall, volume I, number 2; Page(s) 147 To 180. (In Persian)
Memarzadeh, Gholamreza, Sarfarazi, Mehrzad. (1389). Investigating the steps of the crisis management process in the organization, Crisis Management Research Journal, Strategic Research Center, Vice President for Cultural and Social Research, No. 51,9-76. (In Persian)
