تاثیر شاخص توسعه انسانی بر نرخ ازدواج در کشورهای منتخب عضو OECD و غیر OECD
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه زن و جامعهابوالفضل شاه آبادی 1 , فاطمه سادات حسینی 2
1 - استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران
2 - کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: امید به زندگی, نرخ ازدواج, توسعه انسانی,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف: پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تاثیر شاخص توسعه انسانی بر نرخ ازدواج در کشورهای منتخب عضو OECD و غیر OECD انجام گرفته است. روش: روش این پژوهش از نوع پانل دیتا و جامعه آماری شامل 66 کشور طی دوره زمانی 2000-2018 بوده است. با توجه به هدف پژوهش، کشورها به2 گروه کشورهای عضو OECD و غیر OECD تقسیم شده‌اند. تحلیل داده‌ها و برآورد ضرایب با استفاده از روش «گشتاور تعمیم‌یافته سیستمی دو مرحله‌ای» و نرم‌افزار STATA16 انجام گرفته است. سازگاری تخمین‌زن GMM به فرض معتبر بودن متغیرهای ابزاری و عدم همبستگی جملات خطا بستگی دارد که در این تحقیق از آزمون هانسن-جی و آرلانو-باند به منظور بررسی این دو فرض استفاده شده است. یافته ها: نتایج نشان داد شاخص توسعه انسانی تاثیر منفی و معناداری بر نرخ ازدواج در دو گروه کشورهای مورد مطالعه طی دوره زمانی 2018-2000 داشته است. همچنین ضرایب زیرشاخص‌های درآمد و امید به زندگی نیز در هر دو گروه منفی و معنادار بوده است. نتایج تکمیلی نیز حاکی از تاثیر منفی و معنادار زیر شاخص آموزش در گروه کشورهای غیرOECD می‌باشد؛ اما معناداری این زیرشاخص در گروه کشورهای عضو OECD تأیید نشده است. جمع‌بندی: تصمیم به ازدواج تنها زمانی اتفاق می‌افتد که از نظر اقتصادی، اجتماعی و یا حتی فرهنگی منطقی به نظر برسد. با توجه به نتایج این تحقیق، شاخص توسعه انسانی و زیرشاخص‌های آن تاثیر منفی و معناداری بر نرخ ازدواج در هر دو گروه کشورهای مورد مطالعه داشته است و تفاوت معناداری از این منظر بین دو گروه کشور وجود ندارد.
Marriage, as a primary institution in society, is the first pillar of forming a family. Many critical variables of society such as fertility rate, population growth, resource utilization, consumption, saving, poverty, crime, etc. are affected by marriage. From this perspective, family studies needs considerable attention. Potential changes that occur during the development process in the societies can influence Individuals decision to marry, but the process of this effect is not clear. The Human Development Index, as a multidimensional index, can be a reliable index to understand the effect of the development process on the marriage rate. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effect of the human development index on marriage rate in selected OECD and Non-OECD countries during the period 2000-2018 using the System Generalized Method of Moments (System_GMM). This study reveals that the human development index has a significant negative effect on the marriage rate in both of the study groups. However, the estimated coefficient in Non-OECD countries is lower than selected OECD countries. The coefficients of the life expectancy and income index are significantly negative in both of selected countries. The education index also has a significant negative effect on the marriage rate in Non-OECD countries, but its significance has not been confirmed in OECD countries. The results also show that the unemployment rate of men and the urban population growth in both groups of the countries have significantly negative effect on the marriage rate.
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