تحلیل بازآفرینی بافتهای فرسوده شهری با تاکید بر نقش و عملکرد ذینفعان محلی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری( مطالعه موردی: شهر زنجان)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری
محمد رسولی
1
(دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.)
محسن احدنژاد روشتی
2
(دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.)
ابوالفضل مشکینی
3
(استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.)
تقی حیدری
4
(دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.)
کلید واژه: زنجان, بافت فرسوده, آینده‌نگاری, ازآفرینی شهری, ذینفعان,
چکیده مقاله :
شهرها به‌عنوان دومین انقلاب در فرهنگ بشری با پیشینه درخشان درزمینۀ مدیریت شهری در عصر حاضر با یکی از بزرگ‌ترین چالشهای خود با عنوان بافتهای فرسوده دست‌وپنجه نرم میکند. این تحقیق با تحلیلهای ساختار شکنانه از روند برنامهریزی مرسوم زمان حال؛ بر تحلیل بازآفرینی بافتهای فرسوده شهر زنجان در بازه زمانی آینده تأکید دارد. بدین منظور جهت جمعآوری اطلاعات از دو روش میدانی-کتابخانهای بهره برده شده و برای تحلیل از 40 شاخص در قالب 3 مؤلفه (اقتصادی، اجتماعی- فرهنگی و کالبدی-فضایی) استفاده‌شده است. برای ارزیابی روابط بین شاخصها و عملکرد هریک از آنها درروند بازآفرینی شهری از نظر کارشناسان متخصص در این زمینه و از نرمافزار MICMAC استفاده‌شده که درنهایت 12 شاخص به‌عنوان کلیدیترین عوامل شناسایی و متناسب با آن 6 گمانه محتمل با اجماع نظر کارشناسان طراحی شده و برای ارزیابی گمانهها از نظرات 4 گروه (شهروندان، کسبه، اجتماعات محلی، مدیران شهری) در محیطSMIC استفاده‌شده است. نتایج حاصل از ارزیابی یافتههای تحقیق نشان داده است که بازآفرینی بافتهای فرسوده شهر زنجان دارای 64 سناریو با درجات احتمال تحقق مختلف بوده است. در این میان 30 سناریو با ضریب احتمال 0 وجود داشته و در مقابل 20 سناریو با ضریب احتمال قوی شناسایی شدهاست و سناریوهای 64 و 50 محتملترین سناریوها بودهاند که بر ایستا بودن وضعیت درآمد- اشتغال و روند تسهیلات دولتی، افزایش میزان آلودگی، افزایش عمر ابنیه و کاهش کیفیت آنها دلالت دارد که با توجه به نتایج تحلیلهای صورت گرفته، در مرحله اول باید زمینۀ بهبود تعلق‌خاطر در شهروندان ایجاد و در مرحله بعدی با بهبود زمینههای ارائۀ تسهیلات دولتی، زمینه را برای گروههای مختلف به‌منظور فعالیت هرچه بیشتر فراهم کرد.
Cities as the second revolution in human culture with a brilliant offer in the field of urban management in the modern era are facing one of its greatest challenges as worn-out textures. This study, with destructive analysis of the current planning process, has attempted to analyze the regeneration of worn-out tissues in Zanjan in the future. For this purpose, two field-library methods have been used for data collection and 40 indices have been used for the analysis in three components (economic, socio-cultural, physical-spatial). MICMAC software was used to evaluate the relationships between indicators and their performance in the urban regeneration process. Finally, 12 indicators were identified as the key factor and designed accordingly. The views of 4 groups (citizens, business, local communities, urban managers) in the SMIC environment were used to evaluate the boreholes. The results of the evaluation of the research findings showed that the regeneration of worn-out tissues in Zanjan has 64 scenarios with. In the meantime, 30 scenarios with a probability factor of 0 and 20 with a probability factor of 20 have been identified, although scenarios 64 and 50 are the most likely scenarios for static income-employment status and government amenities, increased pollution rates, increasing the life of the buildings and reducing their quality. According to the results of the analysis, in the first stage, the ground for improving the belonging of citizens should be created and in the next step, by improving the field of providing government facilities provided the ground for different groups to work as much as possible.
Extended abstract
Introduction:
Today, these decay textures have become too weak areas with extensive decay and they have created a recession and many problems in the possibility of benefiting residents from new infrastructure and transportation services. Decay; is the Inefficiency and reduced efficiency of one texture compared to the efficiency of other urban textures that they mainly include the core of the city that in over time, they have failed to adapt. This is clearly the case now in most major and historical cities of the world, including Iranian cities. So cities need to change for many reasons, accordingly for years; intervention, revitalization and revitalization of ancient and historical urban tissues has become to one of the basic issues of the planning system in countries that have a rich offer of urbanization. So cities need to change for many reasons. Accordingly, many years ago, intervention, revitalization and revitalization of ancient and historical urban textures is one of the basic issues of the planning system that it has become a country with a rich history of urbanization. The emergence of this approach should be considered according to the principles proposed in urban development and sustainability. Recreating decay textures is a comprehensive and long-term process that it is accompanied by planning and evaluation and is based on the revival of space and without erosion of historical identity belonging to different eras. Reconstruction not only emphasizes the physical dimension, but also the social and economic well-being of the region.
Methodology:
The present type of research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of data collection; it has been descriptive-analytical. Data collection is done in two forms: documentary and library. In this study, 40 regeneration indicators were analyzed in the form of three hypotheses (economic, socio-cultural, physical-spatial) in MicMac software and according to experts until the finally, more key factors are extracted. Then according to the research topic it is possible to determine the possible hypotheses of recreating the decay textures of Zanjan city until to be evaluated in SMIC software in four groups (citizens, businessmen, city managers, local communities), and in accordance with that, the possible scenarios for the reconstruction of Zanjan city should be determined and the probability of realization of each of the hypotheses is clarified by their coefficient of effect.
Results:
It evaluations of different groups of hypotheses for recreating decay textures of Zanjan city represents 64 scenarios have been with different degrees. In these results, 30 scenarios with a probability coefficient of 0 appeared that did not need to be analyzed. High-probability scenarios included 20 scenarios, in the meantime, local communities were the most affected by 0.98 percent, and businesses were down by 0.78 percent and according to the results of the simple algorithm, Scenario 50 has the most coordination between scenarios with the hypotheses of increasing life and reducing the quality of buildings, increasing pollution, increasing life and reducing the quality of buildings by 0.94% and it has the most to do with scenario 31 which emphasizes the realization of the hypothesis of improving participation and belonging, It was 0.17 percent convergent in the second case, scenario 64, which emphasizes the non-fulfillment of any of the hypotheses, is 0.89 percent and Scenario 31 with an emphasis on achieving the hypothesis of improving participation status and belonging to 0.61% and it has been coordinated with other top scenarios that its highest convergence with scenario 43 was 0.11%.
Conclusion:
According to the results of the analysis, in order to improve the performance of regeneration and to involve actors in the field of regeneration, in the first stage, the ground for improving the belonging of citizens should be created and in the next step, by improving the field of providing government facilities provided the ground for different groups to work as much as possible, on the other hand, by applying and prioritizing the care of decay textures, reduce contamination and adverse access to services in these textures. The following suggestions are more necessary to improve the revitalization of decay textures in Zanjan;
- Prioritize the opinions and interests of different groups
- Emphasis on public participation
- Improving welfare and recreational services in the city
- Improving the process of government facilities to rehabilitate decay textures.
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