توزیع درآمد روستایی و اثرات آن بر مهاجرت‌های روستا شهری در ایران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

سید محمدرضا مهدویان ¹ (دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، گرایش منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه زابل، ایران.)
مرضیه اسفندیاری ² (دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/05/06 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/03/07 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/02/01

کلید واژه: نظریه‌های مهاجرت, نابراری توزیع درآمد, گشتاور تعمیم‌یافته,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف: پژوهش حاضر ضمن بررسی نظریه­های مهاجرت روستا شهری، با به‌کارگیری رهیافت گشتاور تعمیم‌یافته و با استفاده از داده‌های استانی در فاصله سال‌های 1395-1385، اثرات توزیع درآمد روستایی بر مهاجرت را مورد بررسی قرار داده است. متغیرهای مورد استفاده در این مطالعه شامل ضریب جینی، نرخ باسوادی، تعداد خانه­های بهداشت، مقدار تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی و متغیر دامی (برای پرداخت نقدی یارانه‌ها) می­باشد. مواد و روش­ها: برای این منظور، از روش گشتاور تعمیم یافته استفاده گردید. برای بررسی وابستگی مقطعی از آزمون استقلال مقطعی پسران (CIPS) و جهت بررسی مانایی از آزمون CADF استفاده گردید. هم‌چنین، جهت بررسی هم انباشتگی، آزمون وسترلوند به کار گرفته شد. یافته­ها: یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد رابطه ضریب جینی و مهاجرت مثبت است، به طوری که با یک درصد افزایش در مقدار ضریب جینی، مهاجرت از روستا به شهر 46/0 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. هم‌چنین، متغیرهای سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی، آموزش، سلامت در مناطق روستایی اثر کاهشی بر مقدار مهاجرت داشته­اند. به طوری که با افزایش یک درصدی در مقدار سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی، نرخ باسوادی و تعداد خانه­های بهداشت، به ترتیب شاهد کاهش 13/0، 002/0 ، 05/0 درصدی در مقدار مهاجرت خواهیم بود. رابطه میان ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی و مهاجرت مثبت است و به ازای یک درصد افزایش در ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی، مقدار مهاجرت روستا شهری 15/0 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. بحث و نتیجه­گیری: به منظور بهبود توزیع درآمد مناطق روستایی، ایجاد ساختار مناسب برای مدیریت هماهنگ توسعه روستایی، بهبود شاخص­های توسعه روستایی، اولویت­بندی خدمات روستایی بر اساس شرایط منطقه­ای، حمایت از گسترش کشاورزی صنعتی و صنایع روستایی برای ایجاد مهاجرت معکوس (از شهر به روستا) ، باید در اولویت قرار گیرد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: The present study, by examining the rural-urban migration theories, using the Generalized Method of Moments approach and using provincial data from 2006-2016, investigated the effects of rural income distribution on immigration. The variables used in this study include the Gini coefficient, literacy rate, number of health homes, per capita GDP, agricultural sector's value-added, and Dummy variable (for the payment of subsidies). Material and Methods: The Generalized Method of the Moment Approach was used for this purpose. To verify the Cross-Sectional Dependence and Pesaran (2004) CD Test and CADF test were used. Also, to investigate co-integration, the Westerlund test was used. Finding: The research findings show that the relation between the Gini coefficient and migration is positive, so with a percentage increase in the Gini coefficient, migration from the village to the city will increase by 0.46%. Also, per capita GDP, education, and health in rural areas have decreased immigration. As a percentage increase in per capita GDP, literacy rates, and the number of health homes, we will see a decrease of 0.13%, 0.002%, and 0.05% in immigration, respectively. The relationship between the value added of the agricultural sector and migration is positive, and for a one percent increase in the value added of the agricultural sector, the rural-urban migration rate will increase by 0.19 percent. Conclusion: In order to improve the distribution of income in rural areas, establishing an appropriate structure for coordinating rural and nomadic development, promoting rural development indicators and providing new services, prioritizing rural services based on regional and local conditions, supporting the expansion of industrial agriculture and rural industries in order to create reverse migration (from city to village), they must be prioritized.

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